UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005327766 Date 03 03 2015 a - United Sluice- of Stan- 'ashinglon D C 20520 QNCLASSIFIED WITH February 27 1939 CONFIDENTIAL ATTACHMENT INFORMATION MEMORANDUM SIS T0 The Secretary FROM OBS - Frederick H Bernthal SUBJECT Review of Key Foreign Policy Issues The Environment IN Attached is the requested policy review paper on the environment A one-page executive summary and two annexes are included Attachment as stated Drafted OBS staff Cleared i NBoyer - DFinnerty w P LFarrar S P CDawson REVIEW AUTHORITY Adolph Eisner Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED WITH CONFIDENTIAL ATTACHMENT UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005327766 Date 03 03 2015 UNCLASSIFIED us Department of State Case No Doc No 005327767 Date 03 03 2015 CONFIDENTIAL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RELEASEDINFULM Environmental policy issues are now at the top of the international agenda reflecting a growing awareness that rapidly increasing human populations and their guest for economic development are threatening to cause harmful -- and irreversible changes on a planet-wide scale Public concern over global change has spurred an ambitious international scientific effort to understand its causes and predict its course The world looks to the U S for leadership in coordinating international action to respond to threats to the environment During the last Administration we exercised such leadership in several areas most notably in negotiating and bringing into force the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer Despite this leadership the perception has developed that the U S has been slow to address international environmental issues Changing this misperception should be an early objective of the new Administration Our unique assets -- experience with environmental protection public and private research capabilities strong non governmental organizations and continuing leadership within the international system including agencies of the UN system -- make active U S participation critical to the success of further initiatives The attached policy review paper discusses six policy areas in which the Bush Administration has an opportunity to take such initiatives They are - Acid Rain - negotiate an air quality accord with Canada - Global Climate Change - develop cost-effective responses - Protection of the Ozone Layer decide on a phaseout of ozone depleting chemicals - Hazardous Waste Exports make an early decision on enhanced controls - Tropical Deforestation engage developing countries - larine Environment - improve understanding and protection of marine ecosystems REVIEW AUTHORITY Adolph Eisner Senior CINFIDENIIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case NO F-2010-07559 Doc No C05327767 Date 03 03 2015 US Department of State Case No Doc No 005327768 Date 03 03 2015 bL St' tutu ANNEX 1 Fluents of an Acid Rain Accord with Canada IN Among the subjects we should be prepared to discuss with Canada are expanded exchange of infatuation joint periodic reviews of transboundary air pollution problems joint deoonstration projects 'for new enissions control technologies targets and possible tiletables for emissions reductions and upended conduct of joint research An accord should build on the Special Envoys recomendations and leasures already Imderway to reduce emissions In particular such an accord should 0 Allow sufficient tine for Innovative Control Technologies Program deploy new more cost effective technologies Be broad enough to deal with the full range of transboul ary air pollution since the U S is doing much more in some areas than the Canadians grouni level ozone We have discussed these possibilities with the Canadians through bilateral channels and received an encouraging reaponse We also need to avoid certain things in such an accord Inportantly we should not agree to inflexible schedules of reductions that would be insensitive to new technical knwledge or to domestic imperatives We cannot allow ourselves to be in a position in which domestic policy judgments on this issue might be driven by connitnents to Canada The key is to assure that any emission reduction goals in such an accord are seen as targets which are subject to refinement knowledge increases in this area This approach would be consistent with that we have taken under the successful Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement with Canada We also need to avoid creating any bilateral mechanisms that could tmsurp 0 5 decision- aking rogatives Any role for the existing International Joint Commission IJC or some newly-created bilateral body in nonitoring transboundary flows providing secretarial support for joint efforts or otherwise responding on issues jointly referred to it by the two governments lust be considered within that constraint There has been broad interagency agreement on the major elements of this strategy with the exception of the continent to the inclusion of specific emissions goals and tiletables As a first step we should seek interagency consensus on a position which includes targets and timetables as a basis for beginning talks with the Canadians REVIEW AUTHORITY Adolph Eisner Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2010-07559 Doc No 005327768 Date 03 03 2015 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2010-07559 Doc No C05327769 Date 03 03 2015 UNIDENHAL ani mmental Issues IN Introduction The growing importance of international enviromental issues presents the Bush Administration with an opportunity and a challenge The opportunity is to strengthen U S influence and authority with individual countries and within the international conmunity as a whole by taking the lead in new international initiatives to assess and Ionitor the enviroment reduce pollution conserve natural resources and minimize the adverse effects of any future climate change Among other things we need to ensure that there is a lultilateral dimension to our policy initiatives This means not only working closely with the UN Envirorvnent Program UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization but working as well with other agencies in the UN system that have mandates touching on environmental concerns In particular we will want to encourage the UN Development Program UNDP and the Food and Agriculture Organization FAQ to ensure that environmental considerations are taken into account in their overall policies and in the implementation of their country programs The corresponding challenge is to develop and carry out a domestic policy agenda consistent with any proposed international initiatives There are six areas covered in this paper in which the Administration should move soon in the international area in concert with appropriate domestic policy steps Go acid rain hazardous waste and protection of the ozone layer we face mediate policy decisions Important policy or implementing decisions with regard to global change protection of the marine environment and trapical deforestation will also be needed shortly Annexes are also included on Elements of an Acid Rain Accord with Canada and on Enviromental Assessment and Monitoring which deals with matters which cut across a number of the areas covered 1 ACIDRAIN Current Situation and Trends The President's proposed Clean Air Act legislation will include timetables for reductions in acid rain precursor i emissions and open the way for compromise with the Congress The resulting legislation will determine the parameters for negotiating an acid rain accord with Canada 'lhe lultilateral protocol limiting future increases in emissions signed by the U S Canada and many European countries last fall was a first step in dealing with transboundary air pollution but does not address the larger 50 problem The Camdians made clear in Ottawa that acid rain remains their top bilateral priority Recognizing the lore forthcoming attitude of the Bush Administration they signaled a readiness to give us sale tile to develop a domestic consensus before pressing for negotiations on an accord in-rent Objectives and Policies We are now well positioned to make progress on acid rain and remove it as a contentious issue in U S Canadian relations mu- objective is to reach an accord with Canada which complements our domestic efforts to deal with the acid rain problem in a manner consistent with our Mastic policy need for regional ecpity REVIEW AUTHORITY Adolph Eisner Senior UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No 0-07559 Doc No 005327769 Date 03 03 2015 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005327769 Date 03 03 2015 LrUliI - - Qpportunities and Problens We have resisted pressures for prenature solution to the acid rain problem which would rely heavily on outdated and expensive scrubber technologies Our $2 5 billion innovative clean coal technologies program is well underway with the private sector more than latching government funding The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program NAPAP has given us a more sophisticated understanding of the respective contributions of 502 N0 and ozone to the enviromental iapacts associated with acid rain Our pro lea is to develop and enact acid rain legislation which is both cost-effective and responsive to competing 0 8 regional and economic interests Strategy and Policy Is already proposed by the President we should seek an early consensus fth the Congress on acid rain and use it as a basis for negotiating an accord with Canada Our proposed approach to such an accord is included as 8 Annex I 2 GLOBAL QIMATE GIANGE Current Situation and Trends If climate change within the range of current predictions to 4 5 degrees centigrade by the middle of next century actually occurs the consequences for every nation and every aspect of hman activity will be profound Current Objectives and Policies Our objective is to ensure that this issue is addressed responsibly within the mainstream of scientific opinion in a way that recognizes both the complexity of the potential problem and the uncertainties resulting from gaps in our knowledge It is premature for example to be considering a sweeping law of the air or supranational authorities to deal with climate change as apparently will be proposed in the March 11 heads of state meeting in the Phgue @portunities and Problems me most important cause of global yalarming is emissions produced by the combustion of fossil fuels The costs to society of a major cutback in the use of such fuels could be immense as such as half a trillion dollars to replace U S coal-based electricity generation alone Major uncertainties about the offsetting effect of an anticipated increase in cloud cover the dynamics of the ocean atmosphere interface and other key variables make it difficult to justify those costs politically But a umber of prudent leasures could be taken that we would never regret whether or not global warming ever occurs e g increased efficiency in energy use global reforestation and phasing out CFC production and use Thus we must begin to consider rational response strategies at the same tile that we work to increase our scientific knowledge and better understand the prosP-ective inpacts of global warming Strategy and Policy The 0 5 was a leader in organizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Orange IPCC under the auspices of Hal and and chairs the Response Strategies lorlcing Group The IPCC is emitted to an ambitious schedule of work leading up to a report to the Second World Clinate Conference in the Fall of 1990 RSHG's section of the report will discuss a menu of response strategies and implementation mechanis-s CONFIDENTIAL - UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005327769 Date 03 03 2015 UUHI lucu a - 3 To shape this international process appropriately the United States will need to move to develop an active international strategy based on agreed domestic policy A complete phase-out of CFCs should be considered at an early date along with an initiative to limit the destruction of tropical forests 1-proved energy efficiency short-term incentives to burn natural gas and longer tern developoent of a new generation of silpler safer and lore reliable nuclear power plants are additional domestic policy initiatiVes that should receive early Administration attention The IPCC should continue to be the vehicle for 0 3 policy on this issue Within that context if consideration of a global framework convention appears mavoidable the 0 5 should take the lead in shaping the agenda 3 PROTECTION OF THE OZONE LAYER Chrrent Situation and Trends The Montreal Protocol adopted in September 1987 provides for a 50 percent reduction in production and of ozone depleting chemicals cl orofluOrocarbons and halons and restrictions on trade of those substances and products containing them 11 8 support for the agreement was critical to its successful conclusion The report of an 18-month effort by an international team of scientists led by NASA concluded that ozone depletion is worse than anticipated at the tile of adoption of the Protocol A number of governments including the DJ Canada and the F116 have already publicly supported further reductions Industry has made substantial strides in the development of altemative substances and technologies Du Pont plans to phase out prodUction of CFCs by 2000 and other U S producers have indicated that they also will if their is international agreement to do so Objectives and Policy lie should actively participate in the review process ihich will lead to a 1990 reconsideration of the Protocol's control measures A virtual phase-out of CFCs by the end of the century may well be indicated by scientific and technical developments We should not hesitate to support such a phaseout if it is justified by the underlying science Qgporttmities and Problems There will be opportunities for the 0 8 to make an early announcement of its support for substantial further reductions LIL-hosted conference on the ozone layer in early March or at the first meeting of parties to the Montreal Protocol inMay Such a shift in the 11 5 position will however recpire interagency vetting now underway in the Domestic Policy Council to assure that we have considered all the implications both domestic and international There is no coup-ailing scientific or substantive need to depart from the 1990 review timetable contained in the Montreal Protocol UNIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005327769 Date 03 03 2015 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No Doc No 005327769 Date 03 03 2015 1 -4- Strategy and Policy - Prepare interagency approved guidance for use by EPA Administrator Reilly or other Administration spokespersons which will permit them to take a forthcoming position on further substantial reductions in His consistent with the President's statements on this subject - Prepare the ground for a firm U S position prior to the 1990 review of the Protocol's control leasures The extent and timing of further reductions should be determined on the basis of our assessment of scientific environmental and economic information including the prospects for bringing viable substitute products onto the market 4 Current Situation and Trends The cost of disposing of hazardous wastes is increasing rapidly 33 the U S motivating some in industry to look for lower cost disposal options Aware that we may be vulnerable politically and economically if U S -origin wastes are improperly disposed of abroad concerned agencies have participated for over a year in efforts in the United Nations Environment Program UNEP and the Organization for Economic COOperation and Development DEED to draft conventions to regulate transboundary shipments of such substances Both conventions would require the notification and consent of importing and transit countries The OECD agreement requires an exporting country to ban exports to non-parties if it has reason to believe enviromaentally sound disposal is in doubt The UNEP agreement contains the same standard on exports to parties and bans waste exports to and imports from non-parties The Administration would need to seek additional legislative authority in order to implement these provisions lertain provisions of the UNEP agreement particularly those related to State responsibility and national standards nay not be acceptable to the U S in their present form - git-rent Objectives gig Policies Our interest is to avoid or minimize the risks political and economic to the United States that arise from mismanagement by other countries of U S origin hazardous waste lie want to protect our ability to make international shipments of such waste when it is in our interest and when we can assure that it will be properly handled Also we want to be seen to be reSponsive to growing world-wide concern over such shipments Opportunities and Problems Neither the UNEP nor OECD conventions are likely to protect the U S from political or economic costs if a contracting party consents to a waste import and then lismanages it in a way injurious to human health or the enviroment For this reason we and EPA have been working through the DPC process to reach interagency consensus on an Administration licy to prohibit exports of all U S hazardous wastes except where we have a ilateral or unilateral agreement with the recipient country that Specifies acceptable criteria for disposal as do our existing hazardous waste bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico WIDENWL UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2010-07559 Doc No C05327769 Date 03 03 2015 UNCLASSIFEED US Department of State Case No F-2010-07559 Doc No C05327769 Date 03 03 2015 - W - 5 - Strategy and Policy - Seek interagency agreement on a 0 5 policy to ban exports of hazardous wastes absent a bilateral or mltilateral agreement with the recipient country Legislation to support such a policy will be necessary but not Iimtil Senate ratification of a UNEP or DEED convention 2-3 years away - Use the annotmcenent of such a 0 5 policy as leverage to obtain improvements in the final texts of the OECD and UNEP conventions If either convention remains unsatisfactory use our unilateral export ban absent a bilateral agreement as evidence that our not signing the conventions does not indicate lack of concern over international shiments of hazardous waste 5 TROPICAL Daroaasrmon Current Situation and Trends lropical forests are disappearing at a rate of up to 40 lillion acres per year threatening a major portion of the world's plant and urinal species ani their potential as future sources of medicines disease resistant crops bio-degradable pesticides and other materials Deforestation is also a growing factor in global warming mrrently contributing as much as 25% of the released to the atmosphere from hman sources each year he situation is especially critical in the Amazon basin In 1987 and again in 1988 Brazilian forests eqzal in area to the state of Indiana were destroyed At that rate nost Amazon forests will be gone in 20 years gment Objectives and Policy We need to increase global awareness and concern regarding the deforestation problem and find suitable vehicles for engaging the developing countries in which the major rain forests are located in a process which will ensure their preservation Opportunities and Problems Heightened international concern about tropical deforestation provides a uajor opporttmity for the 0 5 Europe and Japan working with the 1403's and UN agencies to support conservation and sustainable development in tropical forest countries with a combination of debt swaps new financing and development assistance To date international efforts to promote sustainable forest development and conservation by multilateral and bilateral donors international organizations In agencies and non-govermental organizations have been too small and fraglented to have loch impact Developed country involvement in the Ianagenent of tropical forests raises sensitive questions of national sovereignty and economic priorities particularly in Brazil President Sarney of Brazil reacted qrite negatively to the visit of an American group which included Senators lirth Heinz and Gore saying he would not permit the Amaon to become a green Persian Gulf UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No C05327769 Date 03 03 2015 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No C05327769 Date 03 03 2015 3 a UJHI mam IHL 6 Strategy and Policy The tropical forest countries thuselves should be encouraged to come up with specific projects for data gathering land use planning and infrastructure building which could then be supported by the HDB's and the donor countries Debt relief through swaps or refinancing and some additional development assistance should be offered as incentives In early March an Ecuadorian-mired neeting of the Amazon Pact countries with participation from the United Nations Development Program UNDP will consider inter alia specific projects to address the deforestation problem We are working with AID the Iorld Bank and UNDP to deveIOp next steps 6 THE MARINE Current Situation and Trends The oceans play a central role in the physical chemical geological and biological processes of the planet Fish are an important element in the world food supply and the oceans absorb and recycle the products of atmospheric and terrestrial processes notably C02 the principal greenhouse gas The magnitude and extent of ocean pollution are poorly understood and such pollution could conceivably destroy the capacity of the oceans to support life and recycle and neutralize natural and anthroprogenic emissions Current Objectives and Policy The 11 5 accepts the international obligations r flected in the UN Law of the Sea Convention to prevent marine pollution including pollution from vessels from seabed activities from disposal of waste at sea and from land-based sources A mnber of global and regional marine environment agreements have been negotiated to give effect to those obligations except for those dealing with land-based sources These include International Maritime Organization DD conventions and agreements developed within the Regional Seas Program Securing effective ilplementation and widespread international acceptance of these agreements remains a high priority Qpportmiities and Problems The lost serious long-tern threat to the heal i of the oceans is pollution from land-based sources such as fertilizer pesticide runoff atnospheric deposition and persistent plastics It is the host difficult form of pollution to assess and prevent and therefore the least addressed in national and international regulations The unilative effects of these pollutants however remire imediate initiation of remedial action To support such action we need to love concurrently to create an adeqxate database to assess ocean pollution both off our own coasts and in the open ocean Stratgy and Policy We should work with Congress to secure 0 5 ratification of existing DD agreements on carriage of bulk chemicals on discharge of garbage and sewage from vessels and on liability and compensation from urine oil pollution and ratification of the South Pacific Regional Ewiroment Program Convent ion CUNHDENWAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 305327769 Date 03 03 2015                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu