CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION ARA-16 INFO OCT-OO H-01 PM-09 SPRS-02 BUENOS 02450 01 OF 02 UNCLASSIFIED 222305Z ClAE-OO L-03 SP-02 E45 RELEASED IN FULL ADS-OO INR-10 EUR'-12 SS-10 OIC-02 10-15 NSCE-OO NSAE-OO SSO-OO HA-06 INRE-OO SAL-01 PA-01 ANAE-OO ICAE-OO 090 W ------------------214371 222326Z 60 o R 222103Z APR 82 FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3353 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY BRASILIA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO AMEMBASSY ROME USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USCINCSO qUARRY HTS PN USCINCLANT NORFOLK VA DIA WASHDC JSI-4A JSI-4B DB-3E DB-3B DC-4A ' ' - ' _'1 USCINCSO' FOR INTAFF GINCLANTFOR POLAD ' ' ' E O 12065 RDS '-3 4 22 12 FRIEDMAN TB OR-P TAGS PBOR AR UK FA SUBJ A CONSIDERED ARGENTINE VIEW OF THE SITUATION 1 ARGENTINE CIVILIAN AND MILITARY LEADERSHIP HAVE NOW HAD TIME TO DIGEST THE MEANING OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC CRISIS AND ASSESS ITS PROBABLE IMPACT AN EMBOFF HAD A CONVERSATION APRIL 21 WITH A WELL-INFORMED POLITICIAN WHO HAS SERVED IN AND GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT WE BELIEVE HIS COMMENTS REFLECT THE THINKING OF THE KEY CONSERVATIVE CIVILIAN ELEMENTS WHO HAVE COOPERATED WITH THE MILITARY SINCE 1976 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BUENOS 02450 01 OF 02 222305Z ' ' IN THAT CONVERSATION OUR SOURCE WAS EXTREMELY OF THE GALTIERI GOVERNMENT'S DECISION TO INVADE THE FALKLANDS AND DARKLY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE FOLLOWING ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS OF HIS REMARKS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY ALAN H FLANIGAN DATE CASE ill 26 MAR 2007 200601451 UNCLASSIFIED A THE GALTIERI GOVERNMENT WOULD FALL IF IT DID NOT OBTAIN A FIXED COMMITMENT FROM THE BRITISH FOR RECOGNITION OF ARGENTINE SOVEREIGNTY IN THE MALVINAS THE DATE FOR EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY IN THE MALVINAS THE DATE FOR EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY COULD BE IN SIX MONTHS A YEAR OR EVEN PERHAPS LONGER BUT A DEADLINE WOULD HAVE TO BE ESTABLISHED B GALTIERI MIGHT SURVIVE IN OFFICE IF HE GETS THAT COMMITMENT BUT SUCH SURVIVAL IS FAR FROM CERTAIN IF GALTIERI DOES CLEARLY WIN II HIS NEXT MOVE MIGHT BE TO SEEK POPULAR ELECTION AS PRESIDENT AS EARLY AS THIS YEAR COMMENT GALTIERI'S PROSPECTS IN ANYTHING APPROACHING AN HONEST ELECTION WOULD SEEM EXCEEDINGLY SLIM TO US C GALTIERI WILL SURELY FAIL IF THERE IS NO FIXED DATE FOR ARGENTINE SOVEREIGNTY FROM GALTIERI'S PERSPECTIVE IT WOULD BE BETTER TO FIGHT A LOSING WAR--AND OUR SOURCE WAS SURE ARGENTINA WOULD LOSE--THAN SURRENDER ON THE SOVEREIGNTY ISSUE D THERE ARE NO POLITICIANS IN THE COUNTRY WHO THINK THAT THE INVASION OF THE ISLANDS WAS ANYTHING OTHER THAN A COLOSSAL ERROR THERE IS A WIDESPREAD BELIEF THAT THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ADVISORS ARE INCOMPETENT E IF THERE IS A MAJOR INCIDENT IN WHICH LARGE NUMBERS OF ARGENTINES ARE KILLED IIA SHIP IS SUNK AND 400 DIE THE PUBLIC WILL BE UNCONTROLLABLE AMONG THEIR TARGETS WILL BE THE US EMBASSY HE SAID - UNCLASSIFIED - ' - CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION ARA-16 INFO OCT-OO H-01 BUENOS ADS-OO 10-15 02450 02 OF 02 EUR-12 NSAB-OO 222315Z SS-10 SSO-OO OIC-02 HA-06 CIAB-OO L-03 INR-10 NSCE-OO UNCLASSIFIED - -- -----------------------------------_ _ SP-02 PA-01 INRE-OO SAL-01 ANAE-OO ICAE-OO 090 W ------------------214542 222324Z 60 o R 222103Z APR 82 FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3354 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY BRASILIA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO AMEMBASSY ROME USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USCINCSO QUARRY HTS PN USCINCLANT NORFOLK VA DIA WASHDC JSI-4A JSI-4B DB-3E DB-3B DC-4A CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 2 OF 2 BUENOS AIRES 2450 USCINCSO FOR INTAFF CINCLANT FOR POLAD F IF GALTIERI IS OUSTED AS A RESULT OF THE CRISIS HE WILL BE REPLACED BY AN ARMY GENERAL ONE SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE A RIGHT-WING NATIONALISTIC DICTATORSHIP ANOTHER WHICH THE SOURCE PREFERRED WOULD BE THE SELECTION OF A GENERAL TO PRES IDK OVER A TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY HE SAID THERE IS NO ACT I vE -DUTY GENERAL WHO COULD PERFORM THIS TASK AMONG THE RETIRED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS EX-PRESIDENTS VIDELA AND VIOLA' ARE BOTH OUT OF THE RUNNING THE TWO WHO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE ARE GENERALS HORACIO LIENDO AND VILLAREAL BOTH OF WHOM HAVE GOOD POLITICAL CONNECTIONS THEY SHARE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BUENOS 02450 02 OF 02 222 15Z PM-09 SPRS-02 U N C L A S S I F I E D TIES TO PERONIST POLITICIANS AND FRONDIZI'S MID VILLAREAL ALSO HAS GOOD TIES TO CONSERVATIVE POLITICIANS AND THE RADICALS RADICALS HAVE TOLD US THIS TOO LIENDO HAS LINES OUT TO THE PERONIST UNIONS AND VILLAREAL COULD MATCH HIM VERY QUICKLY OUR SOURCE CONCLUDED AND ONE OF LIENDO'S ADVISERS HAS AGREED THOHEUAT ON BALANCE VILLAREAL IS THE FAVORITE IN SUCH A SWEEPSTAKE G IN THE LAST FEWNDAYS OR SO THE GOVERNMENT HAS PULLED BACK FROM SUGGESTING PUBLICLY AND PRIVATELY THAT ARGENTINA IS REACHING OUT TO THE SOVIET UNION IT HAS ALSO DAMPENED DOWN THE ANTI-AMERICAN CAMPAIGN THAT WAS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED GETTING UNDERWAY THE SOURCE MADE THE POINT SEVERAL TIMES THAT HE WAS NEVER VERY HAPPY WITH GALTIERI S ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE UNITED STATES WHICH MADE ARGENTINA SEEM A 'US SATELLITE ARGENTINA SHOULD BE PRO-WESTERN BUT INDEPENDENT AND GALTIERI EXCEEDED WISE AND REASONABLE LIMITS H OUR SOURCE SAID HE IS NOW 41 YEARS OLD AND HE NOW KNOWS T T DURING HIS LIFETIME HE WILL NEVER SEE A lfSERIOUS ARGENTINA HE MEANT BY THIS A STABLE DEMOCRATIC AND PROSPEROUS COUNTRY HE SAID HIS CHILDREN MAY BUT HE WON 'T I THE TROOPS NOW IN THE MALVINAS ARE YOUNG AND ILLTRAINED SHLAUDEMAN CONFIDENTIAL - 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