Date

Jun 26, 1978

Description

During 1977-1978 the Carter administration launched a major review of nuclear strategy and forces, not only so the president would have alternatives to the massive strike options in the SIOP but also to strengthen deterrence and to mitigate the perceived vulnerability of the ICBM force. One of the studies of ICBM modernization reviewed the feasibility of a launch-under-attack option. Apparently finding that the U.S. had an "operational" launch-on-warning capability, the study found advantages and disadvantages in LUA. The key advantage was that a "credible LUA capability may enhance deterrence," by producing "great uncertainty" in the minds of Soviet leaders about the possibility of a first strike against the U.S.

If deterrence failed, the study questioned the value of "LUA as a tactic to maintain an effective ICBM force." The conclusion was that an "operational LUA capability is not a viable alternative for modernizing the ICBM force." The short amount of time was one consideration; another problem raised constitutional questions: "confidence in this tactic would require a system for transferring authority to a properly briefed and survivable figure quickly in the event communications with the President failed." The need for expert knowledge was another problem: "The President and his potential successors would have to be thoroughly familiar with the attack assessment systems and be prepared to make a decision in very little time." And such a requirement was wrong: "the President could decide to retaliate in a few minutes [but] he shouldn't, as a matter of policy, have to do so." The Defense analysts did not want to see the president forced into a decision (or "jammed" in a crisis.) [27]

Source

(Program Analysts & Evaluation) to Secretary of Defense, "Interim Report on the PD-18 Study Modernization of the ICBM Force -- ACTION MEMORANDUM," 26 June 1978, with "Introduction and Summary," "Paper # 2 Launch-Under-Attack," and "Paper #3 "The Strategic Options Matrix," attached, Top Secret, excised copy MDR request to Defense Department

Document published in following posting(s):

The “Launch on Warning” Nuclear Strategy and Its Insider Critics

Jun 11, 2019