Date

Jul 13, 1949

Description

A highly compressed report by the recently created Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Committee [JNEIC], produced only weeks before the Soviet test, reached the same basic conclusion as the earlier reports. Thus, it generally upheld the mid-1950 and mid-1953 dates, except for one modification: if the Soviets were using only "one method” for fissile material production, then mid-1951 was the earliest possible date for an atomic bomb. “One method” was probably a reference to a heavy water reactor.

Source

National Archives, Record Group 341, Records of Headquarters, United States Air Force (Air Staff), Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Directorate of Intelligence Top Secret Control & Cables Section, July 1945-Dec 1954, box 45, folder "2-8100 to 2-8199."

Document published in following posting(s):

Detection of the First Soviet Nuclear Test, September 1949

Sep 9, 2019

Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Committee, “Status of the U.S.S.R. Atomic Energy Project – 1 July 1949,” Top Secret, attached to U.S. Air Force, Executive Directorate of Intelligence, "Estimate of Soviet Capabilities in the Field of Atomic Energy," 13 July 1949, Top Secret