Date

May 16, 1969

Description

Pentagon systems analyst Ivan Selin used estimates of fatalities to make a point about levels of investments in U.S. strategic forces. Selin’s memorandum, which Deputy Secretary of Defense David Packard sent to Henry Kissinger, demonstrates that the U.S. could not undertake a major program to limit damage without inviting comparable Soviet reactions. Selin summarized the basic findings of a report prepared to answer National Security Study Memorandum 3 on the “security and foreign policy implications of a wide range of alternative budget levels and strategies for strategic and general purpose forces.”

Drawing on the NSSM 3 report, Selin’s memo identified several damage-limiting force structures involving heavier expenditures on ICBMs and ABM systems that, if used in conflict, could greatly reduce U.S. casualties in the event of a U.S. first strike, or even if the Soviets struck first. If the U.S. invested in more defenses and more counterforce, if the U.S. struck first, the Soviet response would kill fewer than 30 million Americans. If, however, the U.S. stayed at current force levels, the Programmed Force, 90 million Americans could be killed by the Soviet retaliation. If the Soviets struck first, however, U.S. deaths would be high, but fewer than 80 million with the damage-limiting forces, but around 140 million with the Programmed force.

If the Soviets built up their forces in response to U.S. damage limiting programs, then they could kill many more Americans through a first strike or through retaliation. The fatalities would be at the level of 140-145 million in the event of a Soviet first strike. Responding to the Soviet buildup by increasing ABM and air defenses could result in annual budgets in the $20 billion range (current dollars), which would also contribute to a destabilizing U.S.-Soviet arms race.

Source

Digital National Security Archive by ProQuest.

Document published in following posting(s):

Long-Classified U.S. Estimates of Nuclear War Casualties During the Cold War Regularly Underestimated Deaths and Destruction

Jul 14, 2022

Memorandum from Deputy Secretary of Defense David Packard to Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, “National Security Study Memorandum 3 (Strategic Part),” 16 May 1969, Top Secret, with cover memo to Packard from Ivan Selin. 15 May 1969, Top Secret