'9 UNITED STATES ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT AGENCY i October 11 1979 MEMORANDUM TO THE FILES zui FROM Gary R Bray SUBJECT Japanese Plutonium Supply and Demand Update The last set of graphs and tables detailing the Japanese plutonium supply and demand situation was developed early in March 1979 The general conclusion of that paper 5 was that the Japanese would experience a shortage plutonium i for their FBR and ATR programs during the decade of 1980 i to 1990 but would have a large excess of plutonium during the 1990's Additional information has become available and the attached paper reflects on improved plutonium supply picture for the 1980's The most important changes in the supply situation are the addition of plutonium arising from the reprocessing of magncx fuel at Windscale and the re processing of spent FBR fuels on a laboratory and pilot plant scales in Japan during the 1980 s The general conclusion reached by the attached paperv is that Japan will have more than enough plutonium to conduct its FBR and ATR programs presently planned for the 1980's and will in fact have an excess of plutonium by 1990 This conclusion is based on the assumption that all announced programs in the area of plutonium utilization meet their reSpective schedules goals and objectives both in the area of supply and demand This includes the operation of the Tokai Mura reprocessing facility reprocessing of some FBR spent fuel as well as deployment of another and a large ATR facility It is recognized that several different' scenarios can be developed On one hand an extreme case could be presented that all or most of the programs related to the supply of plutonium fall short of their objectives while the reactor deployment prOgrams remain on schedule resulting in a large plutonium shortfall On the other hand an extreme case can be presented in which all plutonium supply programs met their objectives but deployment of FBR's and are delayed resulting in an excess of plutonium Both cases are equally credible C- ag-g - - The Japanese can be expected to dispute the conclusion of the attached paper First the Japanese will State that the reprocessing of FBR Spent fuel during the 1980's is a research and development program and as such is not directed at the production of plutonium Therefore the quantity of plutonium recovered from their FER reprocessing prOgram is very difficult to predict Secondly the Japanese will state that the recovery of plutonium at the Tokai Mura reprocessing facility is dependent on the U S wapproval to operate that facility and upon the Japanese technical ability to maintain the reprocessing facility in an Operable mode And finally the Japanese will point to the fact that the return of the plutonium from Western European reprocessing of Japanese spent fuel will depend upon the Western EurOpeans meeting their operational schedules and upon the U S approvals_to return the recovered plutonium to Japan and is therefOre in doubt The U S approval for the return of recovered plutonium from Europe could be delayed until 1986 or later depending on when the plutonium is available A separate observation is also important It appears but has not been confirmed that the Japanese have used only magnox generated plutonium in their FBR program and presently plan to 'continue that mode of operations If this is trUe the U S has no direct control over the reprocessing of Japanese FBR fuel and the resultant reCovered plutonium The projected excess of plutonium in Japan by 1990 occurs without the operation of a large 1 500 MTU year LWR reprocessing facility If such a reprocessing facility were to be placed in operation in Japan the duly reasonable use that could be made of the recovered plutonium would be thermal recycle in existing LWR's - DECLASSIFXED Autho Japanese Plutoni m Supply and Demand Dates Qctober 12 1979 The following graph and table update information relative to the Japanese plutonium supply and demand situation 'The two major changes to the information presented during March 1979 is first the additiOn of the quantity of plutonium being recovered from the continuing reprocessing of magnox fuel at Windscale and secondly the addition of the quantity of plutonium to be reCovered from reprocessing of FBR spent fuels scheduled to_be reprocessed in Japan during the 1980's - Spent magnox fuel is generated from Takai l a gas cooled 159 reactor This spent fuel is being shipped to the UK and reprocessed on a continuing bases There is approximately 70kg of plutonium per year recovered from the reprocessing of this magnox fuel At Present there is approximately 400kg of Japanese plutonium on inventory at Windscale The Japanese are presently planning to utilize this plutonium to fabricate the next core for Joyo The Japanese have a two phase program for the reprocessing of EBR spent fuel A FBR fuel reprocessing test facility will be constructed in Japan by 1987 Preliminary design for the construction of this facility hasrlalready been completed Meanwhile a chemical processing facility islnow under construction at Tokai WOrks with completion scheduled for mid fiscal 1980 The stated reprocessing Capacity of this facility is approximately 120 kg HM day The Japanese are still planning to have approximately 5 600 MTU of spent fuel reprocessed in Western Europe during the decade 1980 to 1990 The plutonium recovered from this reprocessing is scheduled to start return to Japan by 1986 LuL Abbll 7 m Authorihn xvi-3f L j u The plutonium demand situation is as presented by the Japanese in earlier meetings The near term demands include fuels for both Joyo and Fugen and require approximately 270 of plutonium per year Later large quantities of plutonium will be required by Monju and a future ATR demo facility I In summary the attached graph shows that the present announced Japanese programs should provide more than enough plutonium to meet stated requirements without the introduction -of a large reprocessing facility If a large MTU year reprocessing facility is placed in operations early in l990fs 15 000 of plutonium will be recovered with no stated end use Metric Tons Plutonium 16 12 - Cumulative Japanese Plutonium Supply and Demand y a Plutonium Supply 0 Plutonium Demands FER Research Projected Japanese Plutonium Supply and Demand Kg Demand annual for Joyo cumulative for Joyo annual for Fugen cumulative for Fugen annual for Monju cumulative for Monju annual for ATR Demo cumulative for ATR Demo annual for cumulative for annual Total Demand cumulative Total Demand Supglx 1 MOX reprocessing at UK Annual 4 cumulative a Tokai reprocessing Annual 1 Cumulative cumulative reprocessing annual cumulative Annual Total Supply Cumulative Total Supply Balance annual balance cumulative balance 1980 180 180 95 95 50 50 325 325 400 400 600 600 1000 1000 675 675 19 8 470 1200 L90 1270 2270 945 1620' 1982 180 540 95 285 50 150 325- 975 70 540 1200 3000 180 '1450 3720 1125 2745 1983 180 720 95 380 50 200 325 13000 70 610 1200 4200 180 1450 5170 1125 3870 1984 180 900 95 475 680 680 50 250 1005 2305 70 680 1200 5400 180 1450 6620 445 4315 1985 180 1080 95 570 680 1360 600 600 50 300 1605 3910 70 750 1200 6600 180 1450 8070 -155 4160 1986 180 1260 95 665 680 2040 600 1200 50 350 1605 5515 70 820 1200 7800 180 1000 1000 2450 10 520 845 5005 1145 6150 1645 7795 1987 1988 1989 180 180 180 1440 1620 1800 95 95 95 760 855 950 680 680 680 2720 3400 4080 300 300 300 1500 - 1800 2100 50 50 50 400 450 500 1305 1305 1305 6820 8125 9430 70 270 70 890 950 1030 1200 1200 1200 9000 101200 111 400 180 680 1100 1000 1000 1000 2000 3000 44000 2450 2950 3370 13 040 15 990 19 360 2065 9860 199 180 1980 95 1045 680 4760 300 2400 50 550 1305 109735 70 1100 1200 12 600 1100 1000 5000' 3370 22 730 2065 11 925                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu