DECLASSIFIED We 4 1 - 11H u 16 62 SGFEDULING OF II Target date for final report to be transmitted to Chairman MLC Jul 1 1 62 Note outline calls for supplementary report by Sept 1 1962 on the most urgent steps needed for improving methods of estimation Schedule to meet target date Wednesday April 18th afternoon planning mggting - fix technical approach to problem review outline 5 8 fix general division of labor between ABC and various groups - fix arrangements for computer time and noney 9 fix liason arrangements among various working groups - fix the nature of a memorandum to Chairman MLC or the above -ofix next immediate steps Note see next page for notes on division of labor and on coordination DBM task forces to meet with me for the first time one day each at most not later than the week of May 7 purpose is to get groups oriented to problem and approach being taken and fix on precise nature of information they will require to carry out their estimations and evaluations prompt damage assessment estimate calculatiOns and summaries of results should he completeggby the weekmgf May 21 A I will work with the DBM group on world wide fallout deposition estimates and radionuclide uptake estimates between about May 2h and May 29 although some of this work may slip over into the first week of June The three DBM task groups on biological effects should plan on working as_much time as required of the week of June 11th spilling over into the next week as needed From each of these groups and from worldwide fallout group I will expect to receive a written memorandum of assumptions used and the summary of actual estimates and evaluations I I will use the last two weeks of June to tie all of the material together into a final report and for review before tranSmittal DocId 32586107 Authorityw -- rh- wu-u-Wevu ei-r I- m J-z-w-ea-wv- 4 '_tr 5 Mu-14 2' - of 5-5 Jeri DECLASSHHED v 'gng '3 4 F trf r 1 1 Iw Division of reSponsibility 5 Attack assumptions in final form Dr Miller Mr Crowley and HH - Assumptions on radiological decay fractionation shielding factor - and partitioning of debris Dr Miller Mr Crowley and HH Concurrently with our work I will submit a summary memorandum of information to DEM Fallout Studies Branch for review and comment as well as for advance notice for their participation - The prompt damage asseSSment calculation including estimates of radiation doses to survivors up to the problem starting time to DODAC Mr Crowley Note it will be respopsibility to come up with an stimate by the time due irreSpechle technical refinements to the model naturally it would be desirable to incorporate the more obvious and important improvements in advance - The world-wide fallout deposition calculation using DODAC input information to DBM Fallout Studies Branch working with Dr Miller and HH - Estimates of radionuclide uptake in the food chain to Fallout Studies Branch working witli HE Estimates of biological effects to DBM special task groups working with HH Nature of final report see outline To be relatively brief in text with freecuse of tables for condensing 1 and presenting information with the text devoted to essentially two goals presenting and discussing the problem and the approach used including - the major assumptions ii discussing the results leading to some sort of conclusion with reference to the context of the study i DODAC and other DOD groups working on the problem will be expected to I 1 provide summary memoranda Covering assumptions and results of their parts pg 7 of the worko i i Coordination To be informal as peasible utilizing telephone and informal memorandum- to avoid as much as possible trips from Germantown to the Pentagon or vice versa Primary purpose of memos is to confirm agreements and keep groups together and current It is assumed that will handle its own administrative - arrangements with respect to computer services however for information 1 1 only I would like to receiVe a summary of the costs and time required - 1 1 Docldt32586107 rr-WAe-rma ew -- 7 7 1 77W _wrm AuthorityW A - - r atriumh t 46- WA H44 7 j ww i La titatl'lr h IsisPaolo- - ro-Tlt Title of Reggrt The Biological and Environmental Consequences of a Nuclear Attack Using Clean Weapons - A Brief Study Organizstion and Topics of the Report 1 I Introduction A Description of the Study Problem B lApproech to the Study II Description of the Attack Assumptions Results of the Study 1 I 1 Estimate of Effects on Persons Surviving Estimate of Effects on Surviving Livestock and Poultry 0 Estimate of Effects on Gropland Forests and' Ranges IV Conclusions Appendix Estimation of Radiation Exposure Levels and Radionuclide Contamination Levels 1 See following pages fon further development of-topicst - af qi i x - ran 1 1 5141 r r- l Docldt32586107 Auh rtmeQ swell Further development of outline topic It Description of the study problem - point toward the conclusions by suggesting what questions this B report is addressed to - point out limitation of subject to matter primarily biological including ecological especially the economically important biolOgical environment approach to the study a a - purpose of considering the problem is related toipelicyndecrsiens oneproduction hnd use of clean weapons a minimal study should therefore estimate effects both absolutely and by comparison with a corresponding attack using standard weapons time limitation is severe the essence of the study method there- fore is the use of standard information on biological effects where available and standard calculation models incorporating standard assumptions for radiation exposure and radionuclide contamination levels linterlooking effects are by and large ignored such as radionuclide uptake through the food chain is estimated using data for healthy plants and animals ii latent biological effects are estimated independently of each other and denial time for land use would not be determined on the basis of the users having already been exposed to radiation etc a starting time for the problem has been used which is different than later than the time of the attack itself this time has been picked so as to eliminate from consideration as a part of the study the prompt acute effects of blast thermal radiation and ionizing radiation such effects are included in the prompt damage assessment calculation which forms part of the input information for the study problem - from the starting time of the study problem onward protective or recovery measures-for the survivors are ignored - in general the approach is one of cutting corners and rounding off but besides that information is meagre in any event for much of the problem a supplementary report will be issued about September 1 1962 on the more urgent steps needed for improving the estimates making up the study - numerical estimates are usually expressed as ranges which are to be regarded as the result of differing assumptiOns as well 1 as of uncertainty in information Docld 32586107 DECLASSDDED 55 Further development of outlgpe topic II 33 Description of attack assumptions 3N0 'of cases - zaa9 4 Qz 221an7 2 -g2 1 $128 of attack 1000 andeteeo MT total yield 2 3 Type of attack all surface burst land and all 42 USC 2162 a - RD E013526 6 2 a 2 2 2 i 6 2 Time of day month season year duration the weather and other circumstantial assumptions that are relevant not the total number of Cases for prompt damage calculation because of radiological assumptions to be varied up- v b - a - DocId 32586107 DECLASSIFIED 30 Authority Further development of outline topic I A Estimate of effects on persons surviving t assumptions used in the prompt damage calculation to define a survivor in terms of such questions as how was the starting time of the study-problem picked a time 1 yr or less when the mortality rate dropped to normal ii the life-expectancy distribution of the survivors the radiation- mortality assumptions used and iv ERD assumptions used a summary estimate of the cause of death of those who did not survive to the starting time of the problem in particular breaking out those who died from fallout radiation an estimate of the cumulative and ERD dose distribution among the survivors received up to the starting time and afterwards so broken down statement of the biomedical assumptions used in evaluating the exposure data qualitative deacription using standard radiation characteristics of the health of the survivors at picked times starting with the starting time numerical estimates of the incidence of some latent effects including genetic effects in the survivors B VEstimate of effects on surViving livestock and poultry mortality information generalized - description of the capacity of the animal and poultry population to provide food and to breed new stocks Cg Estimate of effects on creplanda forests and ranges luw# 444v2 condition at starting time estimate of degree of contamination estimate of any very high exposure doe rates numerical estimates of contamination levels of selected I radionuclides discussion of ability of cropland forests and ranges to produce - -a r A v 1 97 g I-szraz 1 mi 7 r3 1r war tr 5321 - 1 1- 22 21vx z-ansnu-m 17 4 Docldz32586107 Appendix Estimation of radionuclide contamination and radiation exposure levels 3 - 42 USC 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 'weapon and type of burst so can be related to B _components 3 Estimates of amounts of debris broken down by specific nuclides f'if not protected of course the number of survivors changes too Do 72 Transfer coefficients unau'Lt un-z Assumptions about fractionation and partitioning of debris into Assumptions about residence time and latitudinal distribution of 1 world-wide fallout Estimates of radionuclide production by the weapgns MFP Srgo 03 37 I 3 - short-lived gamma emitters and Sr 9 induced activities in soil and in weapon material 01 - it is necessary to make an assumption about solid angle for neutrons in surface bursts 50-50 or 2 3-1 3 etc - specifically want Me of induced activities produced of importance distributed by Size of local tropospheric world-wide and stratospheric world-wide as above going into the three categories of fallout Assumption about radiological decay NRDL etc Aesumptions about shielding factor defined as the ratio of the dose received upto the Starting time to the dose received Other important assumptions used in the prompt damage calculation emphasizing those dealing with fallout a Summary of prompt damage assessment caICulations what survives up to starting time of problem a Of those who did not Survive breakdown of cause of death with particular reference to radiation deaths and fallout deaths 3 Land contamination levels at Starting time - gamma dose rate contamination levels of selected radionuclidesr Summary of worldewide fallout_deposition estimate 1 Radionuclide deposition levels and rate of build up 2 levels in biosphere I Estimate of uptake of internal emitters into persons IliveStock including major assumptions -- a j 1 Biological availability a a Docldz32586107 NR Authorityb Mg 3 3330 BIA L144 $232 3 97 1 - in - thugs 12131 - m nm - g'rsmr Eran- 3 - AV i illmg fg-ai 1 33 21 13 35 325 11 1 '2'521211 97 v mt L                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu