I UNCLASSIFIED I IN FULL Testimony of John Prendergast Special Adviser to the President I International Crisis Group - Senate Foreign Relations Committee I - Sudan Peace But at What Price I - - I June 15 2004 Thank you for holding this urgently needed hearing on the complex crisis in Sudan While precious time has been lost it is not too late to put forward concrete actions that could prevent the needless I I deaths of hundreds of thousands of Sudanese and to conceive a much' more comprehensive diplomatic strategy that might bring peace to this long tortured country -- Today Sudan is three crises in one This means that any response has to be more complex I nuanced than what might have been believed six months ago I The rst crisis is the longest running the 21 year war between the govermnent of sudan-and the Sudan People s Liberation Movemenn Army which has resulted inftwoi- I ImillionI deaths and a structural humanitarian emergency I 1 IThesecond crisis is that wrought by the Sudanese Government's support for Resistance Army LRA a northern Ugandan insurgency that has wreaked havoc bait-ism- southern sudan and northern Uganda for years resulting in the highest rate of child I abductions in the world among other depredation's I I I The third crisis is the most immediate and urgent human rights and humanitarian dis' Storm I - the ivqud the unfolding evidence of conditions of gen0cide in Darfur - '0n the rst crisis a peace deal between the government and the may be 2- that will only signal a new phaseof negotiations and challenges Every step of the the iniplementation process will be undermined by elements in Khartoum opposed to the peace deal ' and will be challenged by policy incoherence and a lack of capacity on the part of the Militias including the LRA - will continue tube used by elements of the ruling 'to' undermine cohesion in southern Sudan especially around the US must be ready and willing to continue its deep involvement in the peace implementation process Providing'IfIimding for a peace observation mission is a necessary but insufficient role Additional reconstruction resources must be found diplomatic and intelligence capacities must be committed and willingness to confront efforts to undermine the implementation process must be made clear - On the second crisis after well over a decade of death and destruction caused by the LRAfthere still remains no coherent international strategy to respond to this tragedy The U S should Ework with the Ugandan government and other interested actors in crafting such a strategy which in the rst instance must seek an end to all Sudanese Government support and safe haven for the LRA I will focus the remainder of my testirnony on the third crisis Darfur vague pronouncements by the G-8 and UN Security Council cannot obscure the fact that'the existing global effort to prevent the onset of famine and vast loss life in Dar ir is grossly inadequate Continued stonewalling by key members of the UN Security Council from Europe Africa and Asia has ensured that the world's highest collaborative body fiddles as Darfur burns The current approach to preventing famine and further atrocities simply will not succeed UNITED STATES OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY JOHN BLODGETT ID 25 JUL 2007 200502213 UNCLASSIFIED I UNCLASSIFIED Li a Although there are fancy charts and graphs that can new track the dying months in advance and- millions of new dollars pledged in the Geneva donors conference earlier this month there is no overall strategic plan for preventing a killing famine and bringing a comprehensive peace to Sudan The world is still reacting still behind the curve of this slowly evolving disaster To prevent the deaths of tens perhaps hundreds of thousands of Sudanese there needs to be an immediate humanitarian surge in the delivery of relief assistance in order to break the back of the impending famine This surge needs to be supported by adequate numbers of monitors by actions to increase U S and multilateral leverage and by a robust diplomatic initiative to end the interrelated wars in Darfur southern Sudan and northern Uganda Is it Genocide It is appalling that we have been reduced to semantic debates about whether the situation in Dar n' is ethnic cleansing or genocide The Genocide convention prohibits actions calculated to bring about the physical destruction of groups in whole or in part and compels signatory states to act to prevent them In judgement the situation in Darfur more than satis es the Genocide Convention sconditions for multilateral preventive action But even if argument continues about whether this is a case of actual or potential genocide it cannot be contested that in Darfur a large section of Sudan s population is alarmingly at risk that the Government of Sudan has so far failed comprehensively in its responsibility to protect them and that it is time for the international community through the Security Council to assume that responsibility This isnot Rwanda of 1994 a country to which very little attention was being paid Sudan_has been at the top of the Bush Administration's radar screen since it came to of ce It is not credible to say now that we did not know what was happening Over the past year Dar rr has been Rwanda in I painfully slow motion a II The Present Situation The humanitarian situation is worse than is still generally appreciated due to ongoing state- sponsored violence layers of aid obstruction the lack of an overall humanitarian strategic plan an the weakened state of displaced Sudanese - There tends to be an assumption that because'thc Government of Sudan has nally begun to act on premises to grant a higher level of access the numbers at risk will be dramatically reduced That is not accurate The government has provided access much too late IDPs and re igees have been displaced for long periods they are in terribly weakened states they are subject to sexual abuse and attack they do not have shelter their encampments lack latrines and are horrendously overcrowded and it is now raining in southern and western Darfur Infectious diseases and dysentery will drive up the body counts rapidly And the Khartoum government its use of food as a weapon well honed by years of practice in the south and Nuba Mountains continues to apply layers of obstruction 4 for I example by instituting long delays in customs clearance of relief supplies and insisting that only Sudanese tracks can be used in the delivery of such supplies Conventional reSponses are simply inadequate to prevent rapidly increasing mortality rates and the current response will fail unless buttressed by a number of bold and urgent actions Compounding the problem in our judgment is that the numbers of at-risk civilians will continue to increase The Janjaweed continue to undertake attacks against villages prey on internally displaced persons IDPs and obstruct aid activities it cannot be assumed that the centrally-directed ethnic cleansing campaign is over The Janjaweed are being integrated into the army and police no one 1 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED has been charged with any crime and their actions are not being challenged There remains a state of total impunity It is absolutely critical to demand that Khartoum take action to curtail the impact of the Janjaweed to disarm them to disband their headquarters and to begin to charge those responsible for war crimes All this must aim to reverse in rll the ethnic cleansing campaign that has occurred over the last year 111 What Must be Done In order to fully confront the multifaceted crisis in Sudan we need to push the envelope of response thher than it has been pushed before The US must work multilaterally as much as possible but be prepared as a last option to work unilaterally when others continue to bury their heads in the sand European African and Asian members have obstructed more assertive action by the UN Security Council while the US has been unwilling to date to expend diplomatic capital to help sway these countries towards a more robust posture - In the first instance nothing could be more effective than working through the UN Security Council - to immediately pass a Darfur speci c resolution that comprehensively responds to the present emergency and lays the groundwork for sustainable peace This Security Council resolution should endorse actions that would prevent starvation stop rrther ghting and atrocities and press for a negotiated peace - while warning of possible rrther coercive measures should these objectives be resisted More broadly the us Congress and the Bush Administration should work through the UN Security Council and unilaterally toward the following urgent interrelated objectives A In Order to Prevent a Killing Famine - Public Condemnation The US through the-UN Security Council and-directly should strongly and publicly condemn the various layers of obstruction that the Sudan government currently employs to delay the delivery of relief assistance We need only note the Khartoum government's fteen year track record of ceasing unacceptable activity only when it becomes the source of public condemnation and exposure With this amount of empirical evidence to support the need for public and assertive pressure anyone arguing for quiet diplomacy and constructive engagement at this juncture would be providing political cover for the govemtnent's atrocities - 0 Surge Capacity Working with the European Union and other donors the US should expand the existing capacity for emergency relief deliveries to the internally displaced in Dar rr and refugees in Chad to meet the growing humanitarian need This will require additional resources for securing urgently needed non-food items and the capacity to deliver those items 'There is a need to establish immediately a surge capacity through the utilization of both civilian and military assets in the region - recognizing the particular Value of European Union and US military asSets especially airlift capacity that would allow for short-term front-loaded increases in deliveries that address de ciencies and gaps in food medicine clean water sanitation and shelter - Humanitarian Monitoring The US and EU should work with the UN to support a large increase in the number of WFP UNICEF and NGO monitors that are allowed into Darfur to oversee the relief effort and should provide them adequate security UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 5 UN Leadership President Bush should request the UN Secretary personally in efforts at humanitarian diplomacy A General to take the lead Chapter VII Planning In the event rll access is denied Janjawced attacks continue and mortality rates escalate the US should accelerate contingency planning for using assets to protect emergency aid and Sudanese civilians The US should work throughthe UN Security Council to request a UN Department- of Peacekeeping Operations assessment of possible scenarios and de ne operational plans for guaranteeing humanitarian relief and - I protection of civilians through the deployment of suf cient civilian and military forces under Chapter VII authority Such a deployment would seek to take control of 'stabilize and protect IDP camps in Berlin and create a logistical pipeline to delivor assistanceto these camps - In Order to Stop Further Fighting and Atrocities Janjaweed Control The US should work through the UN Security Council for multilateral condemnation of the Sudanese Government's support for Janjaweedmilitias through direct assistance provision of barracks supply of arms etc The Security council should demand that the Government of Sudan arrest Janjaweed commanders who continue attacking villages and IDPs and inunediately demobilize and disarm the Ianjaweedjf'rnili tia i 'If this does not occur Chapter VII authority should be sought to disarm and demobililieithe Janjaweed Human Rights Monitoring should work through the UN Security Coirt tbil hd the'UN Human Rights Commission for the immediate deployrrient of human monitors in Darfur' - Ceasefire Monitoring The U S should support the African Union and the pani iisfip 1 - Darfur con ict to negotiate a substantial increase in the number of ceasefire mothTS and work with the EU and other donors to fully resource these monitors Satellite Imagery The U S should share its satellite imagery with the UN Rights Commission and the UN Security Council as well as collaborate in more closely'_tracking the activities of the Janjaweed and other government military assets that are attacking villages or IDPs Such imagery could also reveal any cease re violations by any party to the con ict Reversal of Ethnic Cleansing The US should work through the UN Secretary General to initiate a process now to determine the conditions which would enable the safe secure and sustainable return of the victims of ethnic cleansing under international guarantees support and control In Order to Press for Sustainable Peacei Comprehensive Peace Strategy There must be a coordinated diplomatic strategy to end the three interrelated wars in south central Sudan Darfur and northern Uganda This requires a rapid conclusion to the comprehensive agreement between the government and the the construction of a credible process to settle the conflict in Darfur and the development of a strategy to end the crisis created by the Lord's Resistance Army in northern Uganda and southern Sudan Leaving behind any one of these will undermine the entire effort to achieve peace in Sudan UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 0 Peace Envoy Now that Senator Danforth has been nominated to be US Ambassador to the UN President Bush should move rapidly to name another Special Envoy for peace in' Sudan Such an envoy should be tasked to work full time and simultaneously on all three con icts bedevilingSudan and should be given the necessary resources to carry out the missron I- Negotiations Structure The direct negotiations between Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Taha and SPLWA Chairman John Garang were instrumental in moving that peace process forward The Berlin and LRA efforts shouldutilize this relationship-in seeking a rapid end to those crises The US must make clear that if Sudan does not provide full humanitarian access neutralize the Janjaweed and move forward on peace efforts the imposition of targeted sanctions travel restrictions and asset freezes will be authorized against those of cials responsible for the atrocities Ruling party companies with which these of cials are associated should also be targeted Further the U S should work through the UN Security Security to make clear that such intransigence would also lead to the imposition of an arms embargo and the deployment of an international commission of inquiry or a high level panel to investigate the commission of _war crimes in Darfur a necessary prerequisite for the establishment of a- iture mechanism of accountabilityIV What the United States Congress Can Do All the actions outlined above may not be practical in conventional circumstances But with two million already dead as a result of the govemment SPLMIA war and hundreds of thousands more at risk today in Darfur circumstances in Sudan require unconventional responses If the Bush administration continues to debate internally about what to do certain European countries remain reserved due to tactical and commercial considerations and the UN Security Council remains muzzled by the reservations of a few members then the us Congress should provide desperately needed leadership We should not forget that it was Congressional pressure that provided the impetus for the US to stop the slaughter in Bosnia confront apartheid in South Africa and countless other cases of Congressional leadership Historically Congress has been a major force in helping administrations nd their_better angels The Senate should demand that the Bush administration develoP a much more robust and comprehensive multilateral strategy to break the back of the emerging famine in Dar ir The Senate should urge President Bush to name a new Special Envoy whose brief is more Operational than Senator Danforth's and more comprehensive in order to deal with all three con icts plaguing Sudan The Senate should pass the House version of its Sudan resolution which calls for targeted sanctions against senior Khartoum of cials and ensure that the resolution language on targeted sanctions is in forthcoming Authorization and Appropriations bills The Senate should also look for other ways to introduce accountability into the discussion of what to do about Sudan in order to confront the - UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED continuing genocidal actions of the Janjaweed and its supporters in the Sudan as outlined above - The best way to end this tragedy is to bring home the costs of the atiocities in 'Dar Jr to ttie Sudanese of cials who are directing them Every day that we continue to took past this terrible record of death and destruction we ensure that it will continue and intensify UNCLASSIFIED                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu