JOINT U S Defense Science Board UK Defence Scientific Advisory Council TASK FORCE on DEFENSE CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES March 2006 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense For Acquisition Technology and Logistics Washington D C 20301-3140 Defence Scientific Advisory Council Level 1 Zone J MoD Main Building Whitehall London SW1A 2HB United Kingdom This report is a product of the Defense Science Board DSB and the Defence Scientific Advisory Council DSAC The DSB is a Federal Advisory Committee established to provide independent advice to the Secretary of Defense Statements opinions conclusions and recommendations in this report do not necessarily represent the official position of the Department of Defense DSAC is an advisory Non-Departmental Public Body established to provide independent advice to the Secretary of State for Defence in the fields of science engineering and technology The report does not necessarily represent the views of the Ministry of Defence or its agencies This report is unclassified MEMORANDUM TO UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR ACQUISITION TECHNOLOGY AND LOGISTICS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTOR MINISTRY OF DEFENCE SUBJECT Report of the Defense Science Board and Defence Scientific Advisory Council Joint working party on Critical Technologies We are pleased to forward the final report of the Defense Science Board DSB and Defence Scientific Advisory Council DSAC joint working party on Critical Technologies This is the first collaborative science board effort between the U S Department of Defense and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence In this report the joint working party examines five major transformational technology areas that are critical to meeting the defence needs of the United States and the United Kingdom These technology areas are Advanced Command Environments Persistent Surveillance Power Sources Management For Small Distributed Networked Sensors High Performance Computing Defence Critical Electronic Components The working party concluded that the U S and UK lead in critical technologies is under threat and that commercial off-the-shelf technology is insufficient to meet U S and UK defence needs in these areas The working party finds that government investment is essential to ensure that technological development translates into military capabilities and that it is in the interests of the United States and the United Kingdom to collaborate on selected critical technologies in order to help the DoD and MoD retain or increase their competitive advantage over potential adversaries In addition the report presents the observations and lessons learned from the collaborative joint working party process The working party co-chairs recommend that based on the positive experience of the members the DSAC and the DSB collaborate further on joint studies exploring in-depth focused areas where U S and UK perspectives differ We endorse all the recommendations of the working party and encourage you to read their report William Schneider Jr Chair Defense Science Board Julia E King Chair Defence Scientific Advisory Council OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE 3140 DEFENSE PENTAGON WASHINGTON DC 20301-3140 DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD MEMORANDUM FOR CHAIRS DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD AND DEFENCE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COUNCIL SUBJECT Report of the Defense Science Board and Defence Scienti c Advisory Council Joint Task Force on Critical Technologies The attached report is the result of a joint US and UK working party on Critical Technologies The study examined ve transformational technology areas that are critical to meeting the defense needs of the United States and the United Kingdom These technology areas included two broad high level topics Advanced Command Environments and Persistent Surveillance and three focused technology topics Power Sources Management for Small Distributed Networked Sensors High Performance Computing and Defence Critical Electronic Components The working party was organized into ve separate panels to examine each of these technology areas The panels found common ground on the two broad technology areas while the panels focusing on the three speci c technology topics agreed to pursue their topics relatively independently and then integrated and harmonized their results at the end of the study The following are the working party s principal ndings and recommendations Commercial Technology Cannot Ensure Military Capability All panels found opportunitites for government investment and strategic development that could translate new technologies into military capabilities The panel ndings suggest that commercial off-the-shelf COTS technologies will be insuf cient to meet unique military needs and that the and should invest to accelerate technological development or to address technology gaps where there is no current commercial market The panel ndings also suggest that the availability of COTS technologies to adversaries further increases the need for and to invest in critical defense-niche technologies in order to assure competitive advantage over potential adversaries US and UK Lead in Critical Technologies is Under Threat A combination of the US consolidation of the defense contractor base the migration off-shore of some critical manufacturing and design capabilities and the reduction in the number of engineers with experience in critical areas all contribute to the erosion of the US and UK lead in key technologies The working party ndings indicate a need for the and to not only assure their lead in critical technologies but to reduce the acquisition time for intelligence command and control and weapons systems in order to be prepared to deal with COTS-equipped adversaries US and UK Collaboration for Delivering Military Capability The working party concludes that it is in the interest of the United States and the United Kingdom to collaborate on selected critical technologies The working party nds that the value of multi national collaboration comes from engagement of individuals that bring different perspectives on mission on technology on the industrial base available to a nation and on the assumptions that ow from the scale of the technology efforts contemplated The working party co-chairs recommend that based on the positive experience of the members the DSAC and DSB collaborate further on selected joint studies where both organizations bring a useful perspective to the other Further co chairs emphasize the importance of early in-person meetings between US and UK members Topics should be explored in depth involving larger panels in order to increase the diversity and richness of perspectives contributed We wish to thank the US and UK members for their dedication and hard work in addressing these complex issues - UM NW Hon A ita Jones Task ce Co-Chai Admiral William Studeman USN Ret Task Force Co-Chair ___________________________________________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW 1 Origins 1 Objectives and Criteria 1 Process 4 Maintaining Lists of Critical Disruptive and Emerging Technologies 5 Structure 6 CHAPTER 2 POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS 8 Introduction 8 Low-Power Sensing 10 Low-Power Electronics 12 Communications 14 Power Sources 18 System Architecture 23 System Synergies and Trade-offs 26 Recommendations 28 Summary 29 CHAPTER 3 HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING 31 Introduction 31 Driving Applications 32 Architectures 37 Recent U S HPC Activities and Studies 40 Supporting Technologies 43 Recommendations 46 CHAPTER 4 DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS 49 Introduction 49 Electronic Component Methodology and Supplier Assessment 50 Electronic Component Critical Technology Assessment 51 Assessment of Electronic Component Critical Technology Development and Transition Paths 67 Recommendations 67 Summary 80 ________________________________________________________________________ iii TABLE OF CONTENTS____________________________________________________________ CHAPTER 5 ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS 81 Introduction 81 Discussion 81 Technologies Associated With ACE 85 The Human At The Centre Of The Environment 87 The Scope Of Human Disciplines 90 Specific Areas To Be Addressed 91 JFCOM and NITEworks 92 Exploring Command Environment Support For Organizational Agility 93 Recommendations 95 Summary 97 CHAPTER 6 PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE 99 Introduction 99 Discussion 102 Identified Technologies 105 Recommendations 108 Summary 109 CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS 111 The Value of Working Jointly 111 Process 111 Recommendations 114 APPENDIX A TERMS OF REFERENCE 117 APPENDIX B WORKING PARTY U S MEMBERSHIP 119 APPENDIX C BRIEFINGS RECEIVED BY THE PANELS 121 APPENDIX D RECENT U S HPC STUDIES 125 Findings 127 APPENDIX E ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENT EXPERIMENTATION AND FACILITIES 129 U S Advanced Command Environment Experimentation and Facilities 129 Multinational Advanced Command Environment Experimentation and Facilities 131 APPENDIX F ACRONYMS 133 iv ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This joint study by scientific advisory boards that advise the Department of Defense DoD and the Ministry of Defence MoD is an effort to deepen the cooperation of the two organisations as they both pursue a strategy of investing in and developing technology to achieve military advantage The Defense Science Board DSB and the Defence Science Advisory Council DSAC undertook this collaborative study to explore transformational technologies that are critical to meeting national defence needs The joint working party was led by three co-chairs Dr Anita Jones and Admiral William O Studeman USN Ret to lead the U S team and Dr Julia King to lead the UK team The joint tasking statement the terms of reference appears in Appendix A Members of the U S team are listed in Appendix B It is the policy of the MoD not to publish the names of their advisors The MoD re-considered its policy in the light of this joint study and concluded that the policy should be sustained Consequently the names of UK members do not appear in Appendix B They are accomplished scientists and technologists with academic and industrial experience in areas related to defence Because convening a joint working party is a new mode of cooperation for the two organisations the chairs decided to focus on both broad and narrowly defined technology areas They selected two broad mission areas Advanced Command Environments and Persistent Surveillance and three focused technology areas Power Sources Management for Small Distributed Networked Sensors Defence Critical Electronic Components and High Performance Computing The working party was organized into five topic panels with four to five members in each country drawing on a wider circle of outside experts as needed The U S and UK members of each topic panel conducted separate but collaborative studies Recommendations from the joint panels appear at the end of the topic chapters ________________________________________________________________________ v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ___________________________________________________________ A key working party objective was to identify lessons learned from the collaborative process that can be applied to any future joint studies Our conclusions on cooperation are We recommend future collaboration between the Defense Science Board and the Defence Science Advisory Council It is fruitful - Topics should be narrowly defined and limited in scope - Collaboration requires face to face meetings While technology facilitated exchange is helpful achieving collective understanding and collaborating on complex topics necessitates personal interchange In particular face to face kick off meetings between the U S and UK teams would be very valuable - Differences in style and approach need to be worked out early in the collaboration Face to face meetings will aid in reaching consensus on how to manage the joint working processes We recommend that the MoD and DoD consider ways to mitigate the shortage of U S and UK nationals opting to take undergraduate and higher degrees in science engineering and technology and recruit more young scientists and engineers into defence research In addition to national programs - Establish collaborative programmes involving opportunities to train at universities in both the United States and the United Kingdom - Create opportunities to work in U S and UK laboratories to show the importance of the excitement and challenges offered by working in defence research areas vi ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overall the experience for the members of both boards was positive Our militaries have unique missions that are not sufficiently served by commercially available technology Cooperative and complementary technology development serves both nations As the United Kingdom and the United States increasingly join in coalition operations with each other as well as with other nations coalition considerations need to be considered early in the exploitation of technology Joint DSB and DSAC studies could aid in this consideration The key recommendations of each of the sub-groups working in the five areas are summarised in the following table Detailed recommendations can be found at the end of each chapter ________________________________________________________________________ vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ___________________________________________________________ Chapter topic Power Sources Chapter 2 High Performance Computing Chapter 3 Defence Critical Electronic Components Chapter 4 Advanced Command Environments Chapter 5 Recommendations and key points concerning Develop system and power source metrics to meet military and intelligence requirements Leverage advances from commercial and industry sectors in areas where rapid change will happen without investment from the defence and intelligence communities Focus on areas where there is little commercial investment but where concepts material and design tools will be critical to the successful deployment of distributed sensor networks Develop remotely read unpowered nodes as a potential solution to the power problem Fund the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's High Productivity Computing System programme robustly Initiate a UK HPC programme to perform research on the most demanding military applications to improve performance using commodity clusters Invest in research critical applications and technologies Maintain U S leadership in semi-conductor technologies critical to national defence o Develop computer aided design tools o Maintain U S lead in dual-use technologies o Expand and continue trusted foundry initiative and o Develop joint DoD-MoD technology in areas that may provide new capabilities for defence systems but have limited commercial use Re-evaluate the U S Export Administration Regulations Initiate studies to understand strengths weaknesses and vulnerabilities of COTS based systems to counter COTSequipped adversaries Forge coalitions with other sectors to find a common set of requirements to meet reliability openness and quality needs for COTS parts DoD and MoD conduct longitudinal analysis of the emergence of novel electronics to determine whether or not the discovery engine has slowed down Develop a cooperative U S UK programme to collaborate on physical design aspects internal functionality and tools and other human factors related to optimizing future command decision environments o Develop a trial link between U S and UK facilities to host an initial set of experiments and viii ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Persistent Surveillance Chapter 6 o Sponsor a conference with a call for papers to address a broad range of topics related to Advance Command Environments Advance integrated sensing Further horizontal knowledge integration Establish U S Persistent Surveillance effort office or DABINETT counterpart U S should review the UK DABINETT model approach as potential way to go forward Devise a coordinated UK U S approach where combined approach has advantage ________________________________________________________________________ ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ___________________________________________________________ This page intentionally left blank x ________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW ORIGINS Both the Department of Defense DoD and the Ministry of Defence MoD pursue a strategy of investing in and developing technology and then applying both commercial and military-unique technology to achieve military advantage The armed forces of the United States and the United Kingdom have a long history of operating closely with one another in the field as well as in the development and application of technology Supporting this strategy of exploiting technology rapidly both the DoD and the MoD enlist the advice of their respective technical advisory boards the Defense Science Board DSB and the Defence Science Advisory Council DSAC This report is the product of the two organisations working together In an effort to deepen cooperation in areas of overlapping mutual interest the DoD and MoD requested the DSB and the DSAC to undertake a collaborative study exploring transformational technologies that are critical to meeting national defence needs The joint working party appointed three co-chairs to lead the study Dr Anita Jones and Admiral William O Studeman USN Ret to lead the U S team and Dr Julia King to lead the UK team OBJECTIVES AND CRITERIA The objective of the working party was to identify technologies that would meet DoD and MoD requirements in several key areas The working party considered the technologies identified in the terms of reference as a starting point from which to select topics for study The working party used a broad definition of the term technology to encompass specific technologies components and processes For each of the areas U S and UK chairs applied specific criteria in determining whether or not a technology should be included in the ________________________________________________________________________ 1 CHAPTER 1 __________________________________________________________________ study First the working party considered whether the technology area requires defence funding to meet military requirements and whether it will produce a national security advantage Second the working party selected technology areas that are of specific interest to the United States and the United Kingdom Third the technology area had to inherently improve inter-operability and information sharing capabilities Fourth in order to maximize opportunity for UK and U S working party collaboration the technology area had to avoid complex security and industry proprietary issues Finally the technology area had to be generally applicable at the nexus of the threats posed by weapons of mass destruction and terrorism This resulted in the inclusion of narrowly focused topics such as Power and broad ones such as Advanced Command Environments Through collaborative discussion the U S and UK chairs narrowed these areas to three specific technologies and two broader areas in which technology enables military advantage but must be embedded into a system to extract value Different missions and specific opportunities led to the selection of each topic The two broad areas are Advanced Command Environments and Persistent Surveillance Specific technology areas are Power Sources and Management for Small Distributed Networked Sensors High Performance Computing and Defence Critical Electronic Components The chairs assembled a panel of experts for each area The panels explored the current state of each technology area including its commercial and defence industry status and applications U S members are listed in Appendix B It is the policy of the MoD not to publish the names of their advisors The MoD reconsidered its policy in the light of this joint study and concluded that the policy should be 2 ________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW sustained Consequently the names of the UK members are not listed in Appendix B The working party identified the key opportunities each technology area represents and assessed what courses of action the U S and UK science and technology communities can take both separately and together in order to realize these opportunities Finally the working party examined where differences in U S and UK approaches to a technology either inhibit collaboration or provide an opportunity for complementary research The working party also reviewed various lists of disruptive emerging technologies and possible applications to exploit them The working party drew on recent work conducted by the UK members on identifying emerging disruptive technologies that may rapidly alter our current status quo Several chapters of this report contain excerpts of specific technology lists related to the chapter topic The working party members were chosen for expertise in specific topic areas Consequently we did not feel that we had expertise to build a comprehensive list of disruptive emerging technologies for all of national security Instead we focused on the specific topics chosen for study The chapter on Electronic Components provides an interesting comparison Table 1 provides a list of top 15 electronic technologies excerpted from the UK Defence Critical Technologies List Three levels of priority are ascribed to the technologies In contrast Figure 2 gives a list of technologies without priority that were viewed as most critical for future space surveillance as viewed by the National Reconnaissance Office Space Research and Development Industrial Base Study The two lists indicate that experts will have different views Also the comparative lists show that if one views technology through the lens of a specific mission and possibly specific system architecture in which the technology will be exploited that the lists may differ So while the terms of reference requested that the working party develop a methodology to identify unique defence technologies and to apply the methodology to develop a list of defence critical technology we instead focused on just a few technology areas used ________________________________________________________________________ 3 CHAPTER 1 __________________________________________________________________ existing technology lists to bring in the expert judgement of others and explored the specific areas that were selected for study Lastly because convening a joint working party was a new mode of cooperation a key working party objective was to identify lessons learned from the collaborative process that can be applied to any future joint studies PROCESS The working party was organized into five topic panels with fourfive members in each country drawing on a wider circle of outside experts as needed The U S and UK members of each topic panel conducted separate but collaborative studies The panels met independently but cooperated throughout the study sharing research and insights during video which were poor quality unclassified and frustrating and tele-conferences to produce an integrated working party report The Advanced Command Environments and Persistent Surveillance panels conducted visit exchanges for face to face collaboration and joint briefings The working party also held three plenary sessions during which the U S and UK working party members were connected via videoteleconference and exchanged updates on their progress to date The joint working party was directed to produce an unclassified report While the working party agreed to try to overcome security classification restrictions on collaboration wherever possible the U S and UK working parties agreed to independently examine in greater depth any area involving security issues The U S and UK members also agreed to identify areas of opportunity for collaboration where classification issues presented an obstacle The working party obtained an International Traffic in Arms Regulations ITAR exception for the study which granted DoD advisors and working party members the authority to share ITARcontrolled information with the United Kingdom for the purposes of the study The U S working party executive secretary and the DoD 4 ________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW liaisons assigned to each panel were designated as exchange points of contact for all documents provided MAINTAINING LISTS OF CRITICAL DISRUPTIVE AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES The terms of reference for this study asked that we define a methodology for coming up with a list of critical disruptive emerging technologies and to define such a list Along the way we reinterpreted this task after discovering that both MoD UK and the DoD maintain respective lists of future technologies of high interest We did review the DSAC prepared list applicable to the UK Research Acquisition Organisation who are developing the MoD UK Research Programme Likewise we reviewed a similar Office of the Secretary of Defense list which is more limited to programs targeted for funding consideration The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA also has active programs defined and agreed in DARPA The recent U S Intelligence Quadrennial Review known as the QICR Challenge has also recommended that the Assistant of the Director National Intelligence for Science and Technology via the National Intelligence Science and Technology Counsel which has extensive DoD participation maintain such a list updated annually working in cooperation with the National Intelligence Office for Science and Technology It would be good if the Office Director National Intelligence list when developed be cross-walked with the DoD list In any case methodologically it is recommended that both the DoD and the MoD maintain such lists to be reviewed and updated annually and that as much as possible the United States and the United Kingdom compare and share their respective lists The respective intelligence organisations can be involved where appropriate For the purposes of this report we have elected to compile lists of critical technologies that applied only to the technology topics addressed by this report They are contained in each of the technical chapters Relatedly we have deliberately not included the various DoD and MoD lists in this report ________________________________________________________________________ 5 CHAPTER 1 __________________________________________________________________ STRUCTURE In some cases the U S and UK teams adopted different approaches to the study shaped by differing perspectives The DSAC members on the whole concentrated on individual technologies while the DSB in addition focused on mission organisation and system integration of technology The DSB was also more concerned with U S technology bases i e the laboratories and industries that develop military-unique technology and build systems that incorporate that technology As a result some chapters in the report represent a harmonization of different approaches The chapters contain the integrated findings and recommendations of the U S and UK panels Chapter 2 discusses Power Sources and Management and argues that optimizing system performance rather than that of individual components is essential to the successful development of power efficient distributed networks The chapter also highlights how power sources will continue to dominate the size and weight of systems and limit their lifetime and points to the need for exploring less sophisticated but lower cost smaller size and higher reliability nodes that may solve the power problem In chapter 3 the U S and UK panels address different aspects of High Performance Computing The U S group focused on defence priorities in very high scale or integrated High Performance Computing while the UK panel explored technologies such as grid and cluster computing and applications The panel findings call for MoD and DoD collaboration to initiate a UK High Performance Computing programme to complement existing DARPA activities In chapter 4 Defence Critical Electronic Components the U S panel focused on industrial and political issues while the UK group adopted a bottom-up approach to analyze known military capability requirements In addition to calling for increased UK and U S collaboration the panel recommends an overhaul of export control regulations which the panel finds is currently ineffective in denying 6 ________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW semiconductor technology to potential adversaries and in some cases encourages the development of foreign sources of critical technology Chapter 5 is the joint report of the Advanced Command Environments panel which emphasizes the need to integrate the human factor into the development of complex technology and information systems The U S and UK Advanced Command Environments panels initially differed in their approach the U S team was interested in enabling technologies such as visualization displays and ergonomics while the UK team sought to develop a framework to help determine whether a technology was worthwhile The chapter illustrates how collaboration between the U S and UK panels led to a convergence in perspectives and a common understanding of the problem In chapter 6 on Persistent Surveillance the U S and UK groups followed two distinct but complementary threads The United States sought to understand how to better exploit outputs from persistent surveillance technologies while the United Kingdom instead focused on identifying technologies that require specific defence investment or that could benefit from UK U S collaboration Chapter 6 argues for increased UK and U S collaboration to establish common standards and interoperability link high-level Network Enabled Capability and Network Centric Warfare activity and explore the benefits opportunities and challenges of aligning capabilities to drive improvements in persistent surveillance By definition the use of small teams for each of these topical assignments means that the technology addressal of these topics was thin when compared to normal DSB and DSAC output We adjudged that it was more important to explore the processes of working jointly together on topics and we picked diverse topics to challenge those processes Observations about these processes are contained in the Conclusion chapter of this report ________________________________________________________________________ 7 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ CHAPTER 2 POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS INTRODUCTION Distributed sensor systems on the ground under water and in the air have been used by the military for many years The key applications are in intelligence gathering and to better understand and measure the battlefield - this includes the detection and monitoring of personnel military vehicles weapons and communications Emerging technologies will allow small low-cost networked sensors to autonomously coordinate amongst themselves to achieve a larger sensing task While initial applications for these new sensor systems are in the commercial market for example power and equipment monitoring climate control structural seismic and environmental monitoring and inventory management and tracking these technologies will revolutionize information gathering and processing by the military and intelligence communities across a range of terrains including urban farm rural jungle mountain and desert As a measure of their impact the market for small autonomous distributed sensor networks also called motes or smart dust is estimated to be $50 billion in ten years dominated by civilian uses Distributed in irregular patterns across remote and often hostile environments sensor networks create daunting engineering challenges for sensor system designers builders and military users Each node which consists of a sensor processing electronics communications and a power source in an environmental package must be small lightweight inexpensive low-power and because of the projected size of the network low-cost The system architecture provides the overarching control strategy In order for these systems to be most effective for the military sensor networks must self-organize be robust and provide high information assurance despite individual node failures intermittent connectivity and tampering In addition support for lengthy 8 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS mission lifetimes constrains power consumption to miserly rates when not in an energy conserving dormancy Figure 1 shows a schematic drawing of the components in a typical node left and photographs of currently available centre and emerging right sensor nodes What is obvious from these pictures is that despite the tremendous advances in sensors control processing electronics and communications systems that have occurred over the last few decades and continue to occur the power source completely dominates the size and weight of the individual node In addition packaged electronics are far more robust than the power source to the environmental extremes experienced by the military high low temperature water humidity shock and vibration dust dirt etc Thus there is a growing consensus that advances in power source technology and low-power circuit design cannot by themselves meet the energy needs of future sensor systems and that entirely new architectures and protocols must be developed Node-centric power issues which are constrained by the laws of physics chemistry and thermodynamics include low-power sensing low-power electronics for data processing and storage communications both transmit and receive and the power source itself Addressing these issues will increase the lifetime of an individual sensor node and therefore enhance network longevity Once these hardware constraints are better understood one can then explore higher level systems and software issues such as the development of advanced architectures protocols and algorithms as well as the key technical system synergies and trade-offs between hardware and software to ensure that the network maintains its high level of functionality while still conserving energy ________________________________________________________________________ 9 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ Figure 1 The power source bottleneck 1 LOW-POWER SENSING The commercial market and numerous defence programmes are developing a vast array of compact light-weight low-power sensor systems for incorporation into distributed networks that are relevant to the needs of the defence and intelligence communities These include sensors for explosives chemical biological and nuclear weapons thermal motion pressure and magnetic metal sensors for tracking military vehicles and weapons audio and imaging technologies including infrared visible and ultraviolet for detecting and monitoring both personnel and vehicles and radio frequency RF and audio sensors for monitoring communications Today's sensors represent only a small fraction of the power requirements of a distributed network system Depending on the type of sensor employed and its use profile power consumption can be either extremely low-level continuous nanoWatt - milliWatt or require bursts of power Watt Representative examples of the energy use and lifetime for a number of sensors applicable to the military and intelligence communities are shown in Table 1 1 A typical sensor node left consists of a sensor or group of sensors control electronics signal processor data storage clock and an RF transceiver with an antenna Such systems are available for purchase today centre and operate on two AA batteries Nodes emerging from research laboratories are far smaller and operate at far lower power in this case a coin cell right Despite substantial advances in technology the node size and weight is still dominated by the power source 10 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS Table 1 Energy use and lifetime of several currently available sensors Note that by switching from a AA alkaline battery to a comparably sized commercially available Li-CFx cell will increase the sample size by a factor of approximately five Sensor Energy sample 3V Samples per AA alkaline battery Microphone 1 5 nanoJoule nJ Temperature 30 nJ Accelerometer 1 5 microJoule uJ Passive infrared IR 75 uJ Magnetometer 300 uJ Pressure 300 uJ CMOS Imager 1 milliJoule mJ Gas electrochemical 20 trillion 1 trillion 20 billion 5 billion 100 million 100 million 30 million Unlimited generates power Figure 2 displays representative examples of packaged sensor systems available on the commercial market today Maturation of these technologies in terms of size weight power draw reliability and especially cost is already occurring rapidly driven primarily by the needs of the commercial market place e g high resolution cameras in cell phones accelerometers and gyroscopes in wireless joysticks and mice microspectrophotometers and microelectrochemical cells for glucose monitoring by diabetics etc Many of these sensors are extremely robust and driven by the needs of the implantable medical device and automotive industries currently the single largest consumer of Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems MEMS accelerometers for airbags and an emerging player in the passive infrared market These latter sensors must meet environmental standards which in many cases are more stringent than those of the military While some of the technologies noted above require additional maturation and environmental hardening before fielding this is already occurring in the commercial industrial biomedical and defence sectors Therefore we believe that no supplementary incremental investments in low-power sensors are needed at this time In addition the academic small business and research laboratory communities are developing a vast array of even lower power sensors with higher sensitivities based on polymer electronics nanotechnology e g ________________________________________________________________________ 11 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ carbon and silicon nanotubes and biomimetics e g electronic noses Figure 2 Commercially available packaged sensors including complete visible camera gas sensor infrared imager and accelerometer The military and intelligence communities face two critical issues with respect to the development and exploitation of emerging low-power sensors in distributed sensor networks however The first issue involves the speed with which these sensors will continue to improve in functionality and decrease in size weight cost and power and the limited ability of the military procurement system and traditional defence contractors to rapidly incorporate them into state-of-the art systems The second issue is perhaps more ominous the availability of state-of-the art sensors to our potential adversaries given that most of these are produced in large quantities for the commercial market in overseas factories LOW-POWER ELECTRONICS Today's sensor nodes all require some form of electronics for data collection manipulation storage etc Power consumption of the key electronic components for sensor nodes e g clock 12 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS microprocessors memory etc will continue to fall at a pace driven by Moore's Law As feature sizes shrink operating voltages drop and new device architectures are developed Today feature sizes of commercial devices are routinely below 100 nanometre demonstrations at 20 nanometre and supply voltages less than 200 millivolt are possible Like sensors much of the need for lowpower reliable electronics is driven by the commercial portable communications and entertainment markets e g cell phones MP3 players laptop computers etc Biomedical applications are having an increasing impact in this area e g cochlear and retinal implants Consumers are demanding increased performance functionality and run time and suppliers are delivering Depending on the use profile power needs for low-level continuous quiescent operation can be in the microWatt uW to milliWatt mW range requiring bursts of mW's to W's during processing intensive periods Note that many microprocessors already shut down part of their system when not in use to conserve power Nothing comes for free however and there are trade-offs for example between smaller feature size smaller chip size lower die cost and increased leakage current more power draw or faster clock speed more operations per second and increased power usage If one is willing to drop the clock speed substantially one can build a 16 MHz general purpose processor that uses less than 1 mW during operation and only a few uW in standby The key to the efficiency of these low-power systems is to only turn on the portion of the circuit that is being used at any given time this is driven by system architecture see below For low duty cycle operations it is the standby power that determines the lifetime of the system and thus low leakage current is absolutely critical Decreased system flexibility can also yield a substantial improvement in power efficiency For example there is a two-order of magnitude trade-off between the power efficiency of a dedicated verses a general purpose microcontroller More energy efficient data storage hardware e g static random access memory SRAM verses dynamic random access memory DRAM can also minimize power requirements All of these issues are being addressed in commercial and emerging commercial systems In addition much ________________________________________________________________________ 13 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ of the environmental tolerance e g extreme temperatures humidity dust mud etc operation and extremely high reliability of critical importance to defence is now driven by automotive biomedical and computer communications intensive road warrior needs The military and intelligence communities face the same two critical issues noted above the speed with which power efficient electronics will continue to improve and the limited ability of the military procurement system and traditional defence contractors to rapidly incorporate them into state-of-the art systems and the availability of these systems to our potential adversaries given that most of these are produced overseas COMMUNICATIONS Transceivers are the single largest consumer of power in a distributed network system The total power consumption of both the transmitter and the receiver is critically dependent on the system specifics including the stand-by wake-up and transmit receive power operating frequency clock synchronization the more accurate the system clock the higher the use fidelity between the transmitter and the receiver - see discussion of system architecture below the use profile duty cycle typically 1% and approximately linear in power usage the system architecture control algorithms the node spacing placement and location e g on soil ground cover in buildings or trees etc and the extent of on-board signal processing verses the quantity of data transmitted for remote processing A qualitative view of these latter two trade-offs is shown in Figure 3 and is a key driver in the design of distributed sensor systems 14 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS Figure 3 Schematic view of the trade-offs between the power requirements for transmit power solid and on-node processing dashed and as a function of the distance between nodes Zigbee and Global System for Mobile communications GSM are standard communications protocols used by sensor nodes and cell phones respectively The commercial market is making great strides toward minimizing power consumption in transceivers This is driven largely by the use of BlueTooth 802 11 802 15 4 Zigbee etc protocols in portable consumer electronics and commercial sensor systems Today's commercially available low-power transmitters require only 20 milliAmp mA of current to transmit 250 kbps thousands of bits per second and next generation commercial systems will require only 4 mA Today's laboratory-based systems are pushing the envelope even further and use less than 0 4 mA to transmit 50 kbps Because of privacy issues encryption and crosstalk interference are also being addressed by commercial industry Like sensors and low-power electronics the automotive industry is driving these devices to have broad environmental tolerance required for remote entry wireless headsets etc Finally while many of these systems are designed to operate in electronically noisy environments e g industrial settings they are ________________________________________________________________________ 15 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ not built to detect or tolerate active jamming - a key problem for the military given the need to operate at extremely low transmit power to prolong power source life While improvements in sensors electronics and radios are being driven rapidly by the needs of the commercial market antenna enhancement has lagged far behind This is especially true for antennas of specific interest to the defence and intelligence communities Most commercial transceiver systems whether for consumer commercial or industrial use operate at least one metre from the ground While antenna size is important for compactness it does not have to be covert This is not the case for distributed sensor systems for the military - where most distributed sensor systems will be on the ground inside buildings or even underwater and should not be readily detected Antenna performance and therefore transmission distance drops dramatically as one approaches the ground due to anomalous reflections turbulence in the atmosphere diffraction effects from objects and the proximity of a lossy dielectric medium In free space the power required to transmit a signal with an omni-directional antenna increases as distance squared r2 while near the ground or underwater it can be as high as r4 The curves in Figure 4 show that the performance of a vertical antenna drops dramatically as the height above a gravel surface is reduced from 120 inches to 7 inches and finally to 4 inches It is expected that the performance will degrade even further as the distance decreases to near 0 inches and the antenna shrinks in size or changes in direction from vertical to near-horizontal crucial for covert operation In addition the condition of the ground is critically important to how well electromagnetic waves will propagate e g conductivity - asphalt verses soil the presence of obstacles such as rocks and vegetation - surface roughness etc Systematic tests of these variables have not been performed to date and are critical to the design of sensor networks Finally because of size constraints one cannot use high-gain antennas on individual sensor nodes This further limits the performance of both the node and the system 16 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS Figure 4 Performance signal intensity loss verses distance between transmitter and receiver of a vertical antenna degrades rapidly as it is brought closer to a gravel surface 120 inches pink squares 7 inches purple triangles 4 inches brown diamonds The smooth curves show signal intensity falling off as r2 orange and r3 blue Given the importance of antennas to the performance of distributed sensor systems it is critical for the military to develop a fundamental understanding of electromagnetic propagation on and near the ground 10 centimetre cm as a function of operating frequency bandwidth ground cover environment e g soil sand asphalt cement grass bushes trees etc weather etc Once a sound experimental and theoretical basis is established one then needs to create design tools and build and test high performance compact stealthy antennas and antenna systems e g with for example micro load coils to raise the effective height of the antenna specific for near-ground operation in a range of environments critical to many defence and intelligence community applications ________________________________________________________________________ 17 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ POWER SOURCES Numerous small power sources e g batteries and energy harvesting systems e g solar cells exist and have been used in commercial distributed sensor networks for a variety of applications e g automated irrigation and fire alert systems Table 2 lists several current and emerging power sources which may be applicable to distributed sensor networks Commercial systems do not require stealth can be readily serviced and under certain circumstances tap into the existing electrical grid for power Commercial technology can and should be used for military applications having similar operational characteristics However the military has unique missions that will require more demanding attributes such as stealth long-term operation without human intervention and harsh operating environments Stealth and longterm operation clearly require high energy density energy unit volume power sources In addition the dimensions of the power source may be a critical design feature e g a very thin power source may be desirable from both systems architecture and manufacturing standpoints Whatever the power source they must be able to operate over a broad range of environmental conditions high and low temperature high and low humidity dust dirt mud etc and should not emit detectable signatures 18 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS Table 2 Comparison of various potential power sources for wireless sensor networks Values shown are actual demonstrated numbers except in two cases which have been italicized For systems where the source of power may be intermittent secondary storage e g a rechargeable battery or supercapacitor may be required Supercapacitors may also be used in systems where short pulses of high power are required 3 3 3 Secondary Storage Voltage Commercially Needed Regulation Available uW cm3 J cm3 uW cm3 Yr P cm E cm P cm yr Primary Battery - 2880 90 No No Yes Secondary Battery - 1080 34 - No Yes Micro-Fuel Cell - 3500 110 Maybe Maybe No Supercapacitor - 50-100 1 6-3 2 Maybe Yes Yes Heat engine - 3346 106 Yes Yes No 0 52 1640 0 52 Yes Maybe No 15000 - - Usually Maybe Yes - - Usually Maybe Yes Power Source Radioactive 63 Ni Solar outside Solar inside 10 Temperature 40 - - Usually Maybe Soon Human Power 330 - - Yes Yes No Air flow 380 - - Yes Yes No Pressure Variation 17 - - Yes Yes No Vibrations 200 - - Yes Yes No Denotes sources whose fundamental metric is power per square centimetre rather than power per cubic centimetre Demonstrated from a 5 oC temperature differential Assumes air velocity of 5 m s and 5 % conversion efficiency 3 Based on a 1 cm closed volume of helium undergoing a 10 oC temperature change once per day ________________________________________________________________________ 19 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ While there is generally a trade-off between energy density and power density the key driver for most systems is energy Thus batteries are the obvious choice for most applications as they are hermetically sealed can operate over wide temperature ranges depending on the electrolyte and the cell chemistry are robust will have little or no signature at the power rating envisioned for distributed sensor networks and are readily available at low cost In contrast to batteries supercapacitors also known as electrochemical double layer capacitors offer very high power density 10 Watts gram W g with limited energy storage These may be useful in hybrid systems where high power communications are routinely required Only after a thorough system analysis reveals that batteries will not meet the energy requirement of the mission should other alternatives be pursued Energy harvesting or the conversion of high-energy content fuels to electricity are alternatives to batteries but add system complexity limit the conditions over which the system may operate may decrease reliability and certainly increase cost In some instances one could envision a distribution of sensors which would not require any power at all For example randomly distributed sensors that have the ability to change state when exposed to a triggering signal could be read periodically by passing vehicles see below This would not be as sophisticated as a network of nodes that communicate with each other but could nonetheless be a valuable asset in battlefield management e g land mine detection Such systems could be built using technologies and components from the rapidly growing radio frequency identification market Energy harvesting approaches offer the advantage of very long duration missions without the need for changing batteries or refueling Even for small power loads the integrated energy over time can well exceed the energy content of any known or anticipated battery chemistry There are many sources of ambient energy and means to convert this energy to electrical power Some of these are listed in Table 2 above For distributed sensor networks the amount of energy harvested is likely to be small due to the source energy content and the small footprint of the harvester It may be necessary to harvest and store energy over some period of time in order to enable power draws e g periodic radio 20 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS transmissions which exceed the capabilities of the energy harvester This will necessitate a hybrid approach the use of a rechargeable battery and or supercapacitor to store the harvested energy for later use The required power loads and duty cycles will determine the design of the hybrid components Reliability will be determined by the integrity of the energy harvester e g a solar cell could become obscured by debris and rendered useless and the energy storage device e g long term battery performance which can be affected by cycling depth of discharge temperature extremes or self-discharge Energy conversion of fuels to electricity using purely thermal mechanical or electrochemical means is a very attractive option due to the high energy content of many fuels e g hydrogen 33 Watt hours gram Wh g diesel jet fuel 13 Wh g methanol 5 6 Wh g If air is used as the oxidant it does not have to be carried and thus there is no volume or weight penalty associated with it however if the system gets flooded with water or is contaminated dust mud chemicals etc the power source could be compromised or cease to function perhaps permanently The same is true for air oxygen breathing batteries e g Zn-air Al-air Liair For very short missions the fuel volume relative to that of the energy conversion device is insignificant so fuel conversion efficiency is not important It is unlikely however that for short mission scenarios envisioned this approach would be better than batteries or supercapacitors which are much simpler to implement and less susceptible to environmental contamination Energy conversion efficiency is critical for long missions as the amount of fuel required will determine the power source system weight and volume and the energy conversion device will be only a small fraction of the total Thus small fuel cells may play a role here While the fuel energy content is a compelling incentive for developing these small systems many subsystem components e g insulation shielding air and fuel management systems thermal management will contribute to reducing the overall system energy density for a given mission Variable load profiles will add ________________________________________________________________________ 21 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ complexity and likely reduce overall system efficiency energy density and reliability Radioactive sources provide a steady source of heat and or nuclear particles typically alphas and betas which may be converted directly to electricity and exploited for compact longterm energy conversion devices Systems based on direct thermal conversion with lifetimes greater than 20 years have been developed for the space program direct electrical conversion of high energy electrons e g betavoltaics in a compact package is emerging as a possible new high energy density power source Proliferation is not an issue here as the amount of material is small for example most of today's home smoke alarms contain a small amount of radioactive material While the energy density of a nuclear source is orders of magnitude higher than that of a chemical fuel the conversion efficiency is still quite low leading to high energy density but low power density systems Proper shielding will also be required for safe handling and stealth In addition the source must not degrade any of the components of the power source or any other system components e g electronics Note that nuclear sources produce a constant output and cannot be throttled or shut off Thus they must be used as part of a hybrid system incorporating a rechargeable battery or supercapacitor if large excursions in power demand such as transmitting or receiving data are required by the application For all of these power sources proper metrics need to be developed for the power source power energy cycle life efficiency etc in the context of the load profile for the anticipated mission under the expected environmental conditions This will ensure good trade studies that will lead to the optimum solution for a given application and mission Small nuclear sources very high energy density batteries and energy conversion devices should be evaluated for potential research and development funding to improve performance in distributed sensor networks In addition the state-of-the-art for existing energy harvesting technologies or concepts should be assessed in the context of distributed sensor networks in order to determine what if any energy shortfalls exist Finally the military should exploit the use of very low-cost 22 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS unpowered sensor systems built around architectures developed for radio frequency identification tags see Figure 5 for military and intelligence applications It may be much simpler and more cost effective and reliable to deploy a suite of unsophisticated sensors each reporting on different agents or signals than one highly sophisticated sensor that attempts to do everything Figure 5 Potential for compact unpowered or extremely low power distributed sensors based on passive radio frequency identification left and optical corner-cube retroreflectors right The node receives its power to respond from an interrogating pulse e g RF or light from for example an overhead asset or passing vehicle SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE Optimized network architecture and the operating protocols and algorithms used to drive the system are critical to minimizing power usage while maximizing performance and robustness This is a rapidly evolving field driven by significant investments from both the military and civilian parts of the government work performed by both small companies and university performers venture capitalists through small companies and large commercial military suppliers Typical sensor architectures include star cluster tree mesh and hybrid Examples are shown in Figure 6 A star architecture Figure 6 a uses a central node to mediate all communication It is a very simple system exemplified by 802 11 and derives its power savings via time division and demand multiple access TDMA Unfortunately it has a single point of failure and no redundancy A cluster tree network Figure 6 b uses a branching tree structure where each cluster head controls sub-nodes This extends the range of the system and provides ________________________________________________________________________ 23 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ power savings through scheduling sub-networks Unfortunately the individual routes are longer and there is still no redundancy A mesh network Figure 6 c uses every node as a relay or routing point which provides short routes redundancy and easy deployment The increased listening times makes power conservation difficult however A hybrid network Figure 6 d uses elements from star and mesh architectures to provide short routes ultra-low power leaf nodes and easy deployment at the expense of increased complexity While certain types of networks may be ideal for specific situations the keys for the military are to ensure the reliability of the information and to make the system adaptable to the addition or loss of new nodes and robust to changing conditions a Star b Cluster Tree c Mesh d Hybrid Figure 6 Representative distributed sensor network architectures each with its own advantages and disadvantages see text The choice of system architecture is dependent on many variables Most optimized network architectures use a hybrid system involving a mixture of very low-power sensor nodes of order mW with 1 kilobyte compute power combined with star 24 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS cluster and or mesh nodes which function as higher level network controllers mW - W 1 megabyte - 1 gigabyte compute power Due to the rapid drop in microprocessor memory power requirements relative to that of transceivers more signal processing is occurring on the local and star nodes verses transmitting data to a central location for processing System trades involving for example shorter distances but multi-hop verses longer distance single hop optimized duty cycle two-way handshaking etc are already being performed but more work clearly must be done given the specific needs of the military In contrast to the commercial sensor network market it is critical for the military to operate with randomly placed sensors some of which may be compromised Such control structures have been developed and tested While the system architecture determines the distance over which an individual signal must travel and the inherent redundancy of the network the operating protocols determine how alert the network is The average system power requirements can be determined by summing up the fraction of time the system is asleep typically 95% times the sleep power plus the fraction of time the system spends in wake-up mode times its power requirements very short but may be power intense plus the fraction of time and the amount of power required to do real work - sense compute transmit receive etc Pave fsleep Psleep fwakeup Pwakeup fwork Pwork Numerous methods are used to control the relative amount of time in each state depending on the requirements of the system These include synchronous wake-up where the entire system turns on simultaneously for a short amount of time to determine if it has detected anything and then shuts down again This requires a high quality system clock and is not particularly energy efficient since the system will turn on when there is nothing to report Alternatively sentries in the system can provide alerts as soon as something is detected and turn on the entire network While this may minimize transmit power requirements this requires receivers to listen more often and thus increases their power usage ________________________________________________________________________ 25 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ Once the overarching system network architecture is decided on node addressing protocols to control transceiver function must be established Most use standard communications protocols many of which have been developed for the cell phone industry e g GSM Code Division Multiple Access and TDMA There are significant development efforts in both universities and companies to write efficient yet flexible operating systems to control both the system and each individual node These include the development of both open source e g TinyOS and proprietary operating systems High-speed algorithms optimized for specific applications are then written Since the military operates in harsh environments with the need for high reliability it is critical that the network contain some redundancy fault tolerance and a low probability of detection and interception While the requirements are not as strict for most civilian applications encryption and error correction are already part of many of these systems The defence and intelligence communities can certainly leverage the vast array of work going on in this field and can steer research into appropriate directions SYSTEM SYNERGIES AND TRADE-OFFS While developers of distributed networked sensor systems understand that one must optimize the entire network not a single node or single function many of the key hardware components are being created in isolation e g sensors for numerous stand-alone and networked applications electronics for a broad range of consumer needs standardized communications driven primarily by networked consumer devices general purpose power sources etc Today poor system design results in a sensor node dominated by the size and weight of the power source Figure 1 rendering advances in component miniaturization essentially irrelevant Thus it is imperative that a total system design approach include power generation power conditioning energy storage and management etc and be carried out from the earliest stages of development Most distributed sensor network developers are focusing on the use of low-cost general purpose components for a broad market and thus coordination and optimization mainly occurs through software system architecture More specialized integrated electronic and 26 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS communications systems systems on a chip or systems in a package are emerging from university and government research laboratories and can operate at much less power than conventional designs as well as provide for smaller size and higher reliability An example of such a system is shown in Figure 7 One can go much further however and use multifunctional approaches to packaging where the power source components are fully integrated with the sensor package antenna etc for example using printed batteries fuel cells or solar cells This can further reduce the weight volume and footprint of a node and potentially increase its reliability Figure 7 Sensor node with integrated power source solar cell electronics radio and antenna emerging from today's university research laboratories This systems approach is critical to the successful development and deployment of low-cost power efficient distributed networks Nevertheless hardware is only one small piece of the solution a two- to five-fold improvement - software holds far more promise to affect the longevity of a distributed network system possibly one-two orders of magnitude Thus the general conclusion that we reach is that research on application specific integrated systems power generation power conditioning energy storage and management in conjunction with sensors control electronics signal processing transceivers etc with highly efficient software to control system load demands that minimize energy use while ________________________________________________________________________ 27 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ optimizing performance reliability lifetime etc for the military should be emphasized This is critical to developing robust systems that cannot be detected or compromised by our adversaries RECOMMENDATIONS Despite huge investments in distributed sensor systems from the commercial market the military and intelligence communities have an important role to play to ensure that the resulting systems meet their critical needs Key recommendations are to 1 Develop critical system and power source metrics so that proper trade studies can be made in the context of military and intelligence community requirements Optimizing the performance of the system rather than that of the individual components is critical to the successful development and deployment of power efficient distributed networks 2 Enhance and leverage the rapid advances emerging from the commercial and industrial sector including application specific integrated systems power generation e g very high energy density batteries and small nuclear sources power conditioning energy storage and management in conjunction with sensors control electronics signal processing transceivers etc and highly efficient software to control system load demands that minimize energy use while optimizing performance reliability and lifetime Most of these systems will continue to improve rapidly in functionality and decrease in size weight cost power etc without additional investment by the defence and intelligence communities The resulting products however must be tailored to meet specific defence needs extremely harsh environments robustness redundancy and low probability of detection low probability of intercept jamming 3 Focus on areas where there is minimum commercial investment in particular antennas that must be covert and operate very close to the ground in a variety of terrains and 28 ________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________POWER SOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS in harsh operating conditions A more thorough understanding of electromagnetic propagation in these specific environments and the development of new modelling and design tools and advanced materials and concepts are critical to the successful deployment of distributed sensor networks 4 Given the rapid continuous advances in sensors and electronics for long-term missions the power source will dominate the size and weight of the system and limit its lifetime The development of remotely read unpowered or minimally powered nodes which may be less sophisticated but have lower-cost smaller size higher reliability etc could solve the power problem and should be explored Such systems may also limit detection and jamming by our adversaries SUMMARY Based on these recommendations there are a number of critical defence-specific technologies that must be developed to ensure our ability to field effective distributed sensor networks Reliable very high energy density power sources that can operate in the extremely harsh environmental conditions critical to the defense and intelligence communities The optimum solution may involve hybrid systems e g energy scavenging or continuous low-power systems for quiescent operation coupled with high pulse power delivery for communications Highly efficient software architectures and system design tools to optimize and control system loads for minimum energy use and optimum performance reliability and lifetime High efficiency covert antennas that are optimized for near-ground use This will require an improved understanding of electromagnetic propagation within ________________________________________________________________________ 29 CHAPTER 2 __________________________________________________________________ centimetres of the ground as well as new materials and antenna design concepts Remotely read unpowered or minimally powered sensor systems components architectures software etc These could be built on technologies developed for radio frequency identification tags but will require the development of systems architectures to transfer multiple bits of information from ultra-low power sensors with minimal signal processing ability and at large stand-off distances Technologies to allow low-power sensor nodes and distributed sensor systems to operate and communicate reliably in electrically noisy and jamming environments Beyond technology the military and intelligence communities face two critical issues with respect to the development and exploitation of emerging low-power distributed sensor networks The first issue involves the speed with which these systems will continue to improve in functionality and decrease in size weight cost and power and the limited ability of the military procurement system and traditional defence contractors to rapidly incorporate them into state-of-the art systems The second issue is perhaps more ominous the availability of these systems to our potential adversaries given that most of these are produced in large quantities for the commercial market in overseas factorie 30 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING CHAPTER 3 HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING INTRODUCTION Military applications have been a leading reason to develop high performance computing HPC - both hardware and software - throughout the evolution of modern computers HPC continues to be critical to cryptanalysis and intelligence analysis as well as to the design of military platforms Computational fluid dynamics codes perform aerodynamic modelling and hydrodynamic modelling for air craft ship missiles and nuclear weapon design The national security communities of both the United Kingdom and the United States make extensive use of such HPC technology and the United Kingdom benefits from the U S ' investment and leadership in both hardware and software Since the onset of the earliest computers like ENIAC there have been a stressing set of military problems that demanded ever more powerful computation That remains the case today Even the highest performance computers are inadequate to solve a variety of challenging military and intelligence problems New problems routinely arise This chapter will discuss two stressing problems that can not be solved at an acceptable level today but which could be solved through the development of new high performance computers knowledge discovery and image video processing Today's high performance computers all utilize processing elements that execute in parallel Architectures and of course the speed of various components determine the delivered performance of a computer This report will discuss three architectures very high performance computers cluster computers and grid computers From the beginning of the study the U S and UK working parties took complementary approaches The UK working party emphasized cluster and grid computing The U S working party instead focused on very high performance computing There are several reasons for the difference The first is that the United States has dominated high ________________________________________________________________________ 31 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ performance computing until the recent past when Asian nations began challenging U S leadership by building state-of-the-art high performance computers such as Japan's Earth Simulator There is great concern that lack of investment is eroding U S leadership in this field as well as negatively impacting our ability to meet defence mission requirements A second reason for the U S focus is that technology that is developed in the context of high performance computers flows down to help advance mass market computers Thus if the United States does not aggressively pursue very high performance computer technology then innovation in mass market computers will slow The U S and UK militaries gain advantage from the assured access that they have to the upper end of mass market computation which includes cluster and grid computing as well as very high performance machines and software In addition the military benefits from the economies of scale that derive from U S leadership in the medium and low end of the computer market As a result of these different perspectives the U S and UK working parties undertook complementary studies Although the two studies were conducted largely independently there were frequent email exchanges and teleconferences enabling the two groups to develop the common understanding of the issues and to produce this integrated report DRIVING APPLICATIONS Both the United States and United Kingdom have applications that cannot be solved with sufficient speed or with sufficient precision e g cryptanalysis and design To underscore the need for advancing high performance computation we describe two problems that in the last several years have become critical to both nations They cannot be adequately solved with today's computers and software Knowledge discovery and integration can make a large contribution both to intelligence analyses for example in locating terrorists before they strike and in preparation of the battlefield Effective rapid image and video processing has become more important as sensors proliferate For example the majority of video collected in 32 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING London must be processed automatically if the data is to be processed at all Knowledge Discovery and Knowledge Integration Knowledge discovery is the analytic or search problem of finding selected items of data with a huge reservoir of disparately formed data items and recognizing a relationship between them In the vernacular this is called connecting the dots Given a relationship of potential interest the analyst seeks to extend it or corroborate it by relating further selected data items Somewhere in this process data is converted to knowledge and in some cases actionable knowledge In practice analytic knowledge is encoded in a range of products within an analyst's workflow analytic reports working notes stored query results etc It is often these higher level products that need to be queried to answer the is there anything known about question rather than the raw data Sometimes these activities are referred to as knowledge discovery the term knowledge integration is also used For this application the search queries are both manually inserted and automatically generated by the knowledge discovery system The analysis of query results is a continuous function of the system Knowledge discovery occurs not just when data that is out of the norm emerges but where new patterns between data or properties of the data become apparent Discovery of some new correlations may very often generate new queries that either search for other occurrences of the same pattern or build on the pattern to formulate larger patterns Knowledge discovery is representative of a large subset of applications that are particularly key to both national security and different in character from traditional uses of HPC in modelling the physical world in at least the following ways Mathematics used graph theory combinatorics pattern recognition logic Algorithms used discrete algorithms fuzzy matching clustering inferencing and ________________________________________________________________________ 33 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ Data structures used linked lists semantic nets dynamic data typing As a consequence there are extreme demands placed on computational resources such as large uniformly-addressable memory random access high bandwidth low latency for small data updates potential for very high amounts of random concurrency but balanced by increasing need to propagate the effects and implications of changes through widely scattered data items While knowledge discovery has synergies with a few commercial applications including bioinformatics protein and gene databases drug discovery etc information retrieval and web search a recent report from the U S National Academies states The scale of this knowledge discovery problem is significantly larger than the largest commercial data mining operations 2 Knowledge discovery also differs dramatically from modern database applications Much of the knowledge discovery is internal and driven not by programmer inputs but by software that observes potential correlations that surface from convolving large amounts of data from different sources against each other There is also a need for collaboration across organisational boundaries bringing multidisciplinary skills to a problem or to allow the federation of geographically dispersed data sources this is where the term knowledge integration is most obviously relevant Neither massive grid nor cluster computing both of which are cheaper per cycle than very HPC will scale effectively for large instances of this application In physical modelling using partial differential equations spatial locality often makes it possible to decompose problems and make efficient use of machines whose bandwidth and latency scaling is inferior to their compute power scaling This describes the common HPC systems and is for example the reason that the TOP500 benchmark favours such 2 Getting Up to Speed - The Future of Supercomputing Susan L Graham Marc Snir and Cynthia A Patterson Editors Committee on the Future of Supercomputing National Research Council NRC November 2004 34 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING systems In contrast the knowledge discovery application lacks physical locality and emphasize random access fine-grained global operations and pointer-walking graph analysis The knowledge discovery problem requires the understanding of extremely large graph networks with a dynamic collection of vertices and edges 3 Walking from pointer to pointer in large graphs generates large amounts of traffic between computer nodes When many pointers need to be simultaneously de-referenced the computation becomes bandwidth limited and the low-bandwidth of cluster or grid computers makes them ineffective If only a few pointers need to be de-referenced the computation becomes latency limited and the high latency of these machines leads to the same end result inadequately used hardware and slowly produced results The knowledge discovery process is heavily dependent on metadata Metadata is data about data information that provides a summary description of the content of the data item A familiar example is an index of television programme - a compact textual description of channels and their planned programme - just enough information to characterize the content An organized approach to metadata for example a common data directory is a primary enabler for knowledge integration Metadata from different sources and describing different types of data e g text video map co-ordinates can be combined to allow concepts or generic types in the data to be contrasted and compared The initial production of metadata from raw signals e g voice recognition and image processing is often extremely compute-intensive Image and Video Processing A wealth of raw intelligence data is collected in the form of still image sequences such as reconnaissance photos and videos from surveillance cameras e g at airports borders and secure locations Today much of this data is discarded without exploitation due to limited human resources An emerging class of image and video 3 NRC p 56 EAGLE Ref http crewman uta edu psi download Cook_Holder Graph_Based_Anomaly_19May _2004 pdf ________________________________________________________________________ 35 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ analysis applications holds the potential to make use of this discarded data Image analysis applications can provide direct intelligence by interpreting the raw images and video - identifying objects and people of interest and in video tracking their movements Image analysis can also provide indirect intelligence by providing annotations that can be used as input to the knowledge discovery process - for example producing descriptions of the people who were observed at particular locations to store in a database from which further inference can be drawn The field of image analysis has advanced greatly from the early failures of automatic target recognition However in many ways this field is still in its infancy It can potentially benefit enormously from recent advances in statistical machine learning for example by training a programme on a corpus of images and annotations until the programme learns to make the same annotations as an expert image analyst Statistical methods are also being applied to discriminate natural movement - e g waves breaking and tree branches blowing - from artificial movement - e g a boat moving or person walking Image analysis is computationally demanding but quite amenable to parallel solutions Parallelism exists at the high level of separate video streams and images and at the lower level of separate pixels millions objects tens to hundreds and templates hundreds to millions that can be processed in parallel It is critical that the computational needs of these emerging image and video analysis applications be quantified and that future high-performance computers hardware and software provide the capabilities needed to meet rising mission requirements A modern integrated defence knowledge system utilizes a federation of systems that each serves the needs of their local organisations with an integration tier that allows the consolidation of this information when needed Federated systems may use their own data formats but provide an information service to the integration tier using standardized metadata Security features are necessary to allow each authority to retain control over the release of its own data 36 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING Because access to interim and final analytic products knowledge may prove more important than access to raw data the security protocol needs to support sharing of knowledge products as well as raw data Image and video analysis algorithms require irregularlystructured linked and dynamically changing data of varying types e g text images and databases increasing multi-channel highbandwidth continuous real-time input output 24x7 availability and controlled cooperation between disparate organisations including managing and optimizing their operation A key characteristic of these two critical and stressing applications is that they often demand flexible on-demand programming in stark contrast to the long software development cycles for the more longestablished stable HPC applications This in turn introduces demands on the supporting technologies especially software development methods ARCHITECTURES The following section discusses the three architectural categories of high to very high performance computing The fundamental difference is the distance in processor cycles between the processing components and the memory from which data is accessed Grid This architecture is well suited to situations in which different organisations each own part of the relevant data and want to protect their resources and data according to their own security standards The knowledge discovery problem often involves multiple organisations that have these types of relationships Some in the defence community downplay grids because of their open architecture however a grid computer can provide controlled collaboration because the architecture is well matched to situations in which multiple organisations are working on the same or related problems and sharing data Grid computers each with ________________________________________________________________________ 37 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ their own memory are geographically separated and often the transfer of data is achieved by exchanging messages across the networks that connect them Two technical problems need to be solved to make grid computing more applicable First the security mechanisms of today inadequately support the multi-level security required across multiple indeed national administration domains Second for some applications it is necessary to co-schedule tasks to run concurrently on multiple nodes in the grid - across multiple computers that may be in different administrative domains Most girds in use today are classified as less than high performance computer systems However a grid with high bandwidth communication large memories and many fast though not necessarily high performance nodes can be considered a high performance computer Clusters A cluster computer consists of an interconnection of high-end commercial microprocessors each acting as one node of the cluster The node interconnection network can either be a commodity interconnect like Ethernet or a specialized low latency network Cluster computer architectures are typically designed to provide cost effective computation not necessarily optimized for single application performance This is commonly referred to as capacity computing However there are cluster computers among the fastest 500 computers today The challenges faced by cluster designers are exactly the same as those that have to be addressed by more integrated HPC machines including limits on scaling and the cost of electricity that can be the dominant lifetime cost Limited enhancements to commercial processor elements can make a significant improvement to the effectiveness of these systems For example custom-made communications hardware that integrates optical input output with protocols implemented in silicon has the potential to deliver much better bandwidth and latency than 38 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING standard commercial interfaces The commercial market alone is unlikely to produce key components such as integrated low-latency interconnects due to cost Because multiple processors can fetch from the same memory rapidly it is possible to use multiple processors in concert on the same task For example in processing a video stream multiple processors can perform portions of the analysis in parallel Novel Architectures Novel hardware architectures involve either custom processor designs or custom design that improves the architecture in the power performance trade-off space The use of simpler processors makes it possible to obtain over an order of magnitude improvement in power performance as well as significant savings in silicon area if it is feasible to achieve slightly more parallelism especially on chip Today a current embedded computer Central Processing Unit CPU e g an ARM 11 exhibits a factor of 10 improvement in power performance over a high-end microprocessor e g a Pentium 4 The embedded processor saves die area by omitting certain functions required for general purpose computing e g virtual memory management Such functions may not be important for data-intensive or cryptographic applications and useful savings in complexity and power consumption can be made if instruction sets can be simplified Simpler instruction sets again reducing die area can be designed if the custom processor need only execute one algorithm or one class of algorithms For example pattern-matching algorithms implemented using Field Programmable Gate Arrays FPGAs deliver around ten times the performance of a high-end microprocessor Although the processor is limited to executing a single algorithm it can support applications ranging from molecular matching to facial recognition Thus a key research problem is finding a programming model like pattern matching that can host other classes of useful applications ________________________________________________________________________ 39 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ Research into novel architectures is relatively inexpensive compared to classical HPC and has the potential to deliver machines that provide improved power and performance for very important military applications RECENT U S HPC ACTIVITIES AND STUDIES In recent years many studies of high performance computing have been conducted in the United States Their conclusions are in substantial agreement as is summarised below This section highlights their key recommendations because the U S working party believes that these studies chart the correct course for the United States in high performance computation innovation Current HPC work in the United States was strongly influenced by two studies conducted in 2000 and 2001 A previous Defense Science Board 2000 Task Force on Supercomputing Needs made the following recommendations For the short term support the development of the Cray SV2 For the medium term develop an integrated system based on commercial off-the-shelf COTS microprocessors and a new high-bandwidth memory system and For the long term invest in research on critical technologies Funding was provided by the DoD and the National Security Agency for the Cray SV2 and the National Science Foundation funded the acquisition of high performance computers and the construction of the Teragrid However no long-term research programme was initiated on the critical technologies for the future Four additional studies listed below were initiated to analyze the state of HPC and to make recommendations Summaries of the studies are in Appendix D 40 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING Information Science and Technology ISAT 2001 - Technology Gaps and Bottlenecks Integrated high-end computing IHEC 2002 - High Performance Computing and National Security National Research Council NRC 2004 - Getting Up To Speed The Future of Supercomputing and HECRTF 2004 - Federal High-End Computing Revitalization Task Force We draw selectively and substantially from them in the remainder of this section A consequence of the industry focus on the desktop and commercial markets is missed technology opportunities and the lack of development of novel computer architectures capable of delivering the computational power needed for defence applications Two figures from the study of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA Information Science and Technology Study Group eloquently quantifies this situation Conventional Processors No Longer Scale Performance by 50% each year Future potential of novel architecture is large 1000 vs 30 1e 7 1e 7 52 1e 6 ps ga 1e 5 1e 4 1e 6 % Ga C lo 1e 3 tes cks cl i n st ye te 1 oc Perf ps Inst ar 5 2% y e Perf ps Inst Linear ps Inst ar 1e 4 1e 3 9% k9 18 1e 5 74% 1e 2 % 1e 1 % 19% ye 1e 2 1e 0 ar ye 30 1 19% yea ar r 1 000 1 30 000 1 1e-1 1e-2 1e 1 1e-3 1e 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 1e-4 1980 2020 August 24 2001 ISAT LCC 9 ISAT LCC 10 1990 2000 2010 2020 August 24 2001 Figure 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 41 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ Figure 1 shows that the increases in computer performance experienced in the last 20 years 52% year will decrease to 19% per year in the next 20 years measured in picoseconds instruction verses year This is due to the fact that modern processor designs have nearly exhausted the benefits of pipelining The study reports that conventional architectures are struggling to sustain even one instruction per cycle Without further innovations performance improvements will at best only match the rate of improvement due to further process technology innovations which is projected to continue at 19% per year Novel processor architectures are needed to bridge the gap between performance gains in process technology 19% per year and the historical gains process and architecture of 52% per year This differential of untapped performance potential compounded to 2020 results in an untapped performance factor of 30 000 This quantity represents a tremendous opportunity for novel architectures to help bridge the performance gap and to enable future computer systems to solve increasingly complex and important problems 4 While maintaining the historical gains may not be technically possible substantial potential exists and will surely not be realized unless the government makes an investment in long-term research Multiple studies such as the recently completed National Research Council study conclude that the supercomputing needs of the government will not be satisfied by systems developed to meet the demands of the broader commercial market 5 The government must bear primary responsibility for ensuring that it has access to the custom systems that it requires While leveraging developments in the commercial computing marketplace will satisfy many needs the government must routinely plan for developing what the commercial marketplace will not and it must budget the necessary funds While instability in long-term funding continues the government loses opportunities to gain important advances in applications using high performance computing and in its supporting technology 4 The Last Classical Computer ISAT STUDY August 24 2001 5 Getting Up To Speed - The Future of Supercomputing NRC November 2004 42 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING DARPA has established the High Productivity Computing Systems HPCS programme This is the only significant U S government-sponsored advanced development HPC activity at this time HPCS is not a research programme HPCS was initiated in 2002 in response to concerns that commercial systems were not adequate for meeting some very critical aspects of the defence mission A goal of the HPCS programme is to create a new generation of systems that double in productivity or value every 18 months rather than merely a doubling in unachieved peak performance While primarily a DARPA programme HPCS has received significant support from other U S defence agencies such as National Security Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office as well as the Department of Energy the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation In summary all these studies have made substantially similar findings and recommendations The high performance needs for national security will not be satisfied by systems designed for the broader commercial marketplace A long-term programme funding the development of HPC systems is required to ensure that the DoD and MoD mission agencies can meet their requirements This programme must fund both near-term acquisitions alternative architectures and long-term research the existing DARPA activities need to be expanded accordingly SUPPORTING TECHNOLOGIES Due to the challenges of building large-scale HPC machines it would be easy to focus exclusively on hardware research however it is important to address software development tools and other supporting technologies to enable the full benefit to be obtained from these machines We highlight three of the most important technologies ________________________________________________________________________ 43 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ Programming Technologies It is quite difficult to write parallel application programmes Coherent memory architectures provide perhaps the only existing programming model that effectively decouples the application from the machine-level parallelism However there may be no effective way of maintaining coherence over a large distributed system because of the communication implications As a result attributes of the machine-level parallelism must be accounted for in programming modelling testing and scheduling The software challenges that are unique to HPC include HPC parallel programming systems languages compilers and development environments that enable effective development of programmes for integrated and distributed HPC Development aids e g tools to partition and predict the performance of algorithms under different distribution strategies and Key applications and libraries especially numerical methods image and signal processing graph processing and knowledge discovery management targeted to all classes of HPC These software tools needed solely by HPC are not likely to be supported by commercial development in the foreseeable future if ever Investments in this area must be a continuing effort of technology refresh not a one-time development of a new technology Co-Scheduling and Collaboration The vision of multi-disciplinary applications collaborating in a single business workflow implies that it is possible to coordinate the execution of these applications This might involve two or more large jobs scheduled on two high performance computers controlled by different organisations Efficient interchange between them must be carefully synchronized to implement the desired workflow This approach is called co-scheduling 44 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING The notion of a service-oriented architecture is growing in popularity as a way of avoiding some of these issues organisations expose services to provide a lightweight low-coupled means of interaction between collaborating institutions The use of a serviceoriented architecture may reduce the need for co-scheduling when services can be used asynchronously and on demand For some needs e g data mining and visualization this may be a more satisfactory way of combining applications than co-scheduling However some components of some distributed applications require co-scheduling Significant development is needed in the theory and practice of federated co-scheduling Security The essence of security for the applications described above is to support collaboration between organisations in such a way that each organisation can retain control of and protect its own resources As with scheduling there are two different interaction models for security job oriented and service oriented The job-oriented view is that collaboration involves launching a remote task and therefore this approach relies on typical operating system mechanisms user accounts process sandboxing group management and file systems For grid computers mechanisms such as the Grid Security Infrastructure6 provide user identity propagation but support for other facilities is limited The service-oriented view is that collaboration involves connection to a service offered by the remote system At present the protocols of choice are web-services but standardization has not occurred Different commercial interest groups who do not see individual gain from standardization have stalled the development of serious collaborative applications using this technology 6 http www globus org security overview html ________________________________________________________________________ 45 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Fund DARPA's HPCS programme robustly DARPA should continue to fund its High Productivity Computer Systems programme fully overlapping each phase to ensure continuity Support the Third Phase of the Current HPCS Program DARPA should continue its HPCS programme through its third phase This requires funding prototype development by at least two HPCS vendors Make HPCS a recurring programme Within a recurring HPCS programme there should be multiple waves each lasting seven to eight years The objectives of each wave will vary and should be determined by analysis of the evolving mission requirements as well as the pace of commercial technology development The ending of one wave should overlap with the beginning of its successor This will ensure continuity of the science and technology The funding level of each HPCS wave should be approximately $1 billion over its seven to eight-year lifetime The performance objective circa 2025 is to develop an ExaFlop scale HPC system The work should be undertaken so as to encourage the flow down of relevant technologies to mid range HPC systems such as clusters 2 Initiate a UK HPC Programme The UK Ministry of Defence and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council should create a programme to perform research for the most demanding military applications with the objective of improved performance using commodity clusters Specifically the United Kingdom should complement U S activities by 46 ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING Promoting the development of special purpose communications hardware integrating optical input output with protocols implemented in silicon that have the potential of much higher bandwidth and lower latency than commercial offerings Performing research into novel architectures for specialpurpose processors for associative pattern matching which have the potential to offer at least an order of magnitude improvement in cost-benefit of conventional processors for specialized problems e g image recognition the work should include production of prototypes and evaluation of their potential on real applications in some cases this can be achieved with an outlay of around GBP1M Developing specialized programming aids tools and techniques for all classes of HPC machines with special emphasis on tools to plan the partitioning of important algorithms such as computational fluid dynamics and Defining a clear road map for security mechanisms including standards for web-services security to enable grid computing to be used widely on defence applications and implementing key security mechanisms which are not being addressed by industry and academia e g to progress work on web-services security 3 Invest in Research on Critical Applications and Technologies Both DARPA and the MoD Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council programmes should address key hardware and software technologies including programming aids and tools for knowledge discovery The newly reconstituted HPCS programme should be expanded to encompass all aspects of DoD high performance computing including hardware and software research prototyping deployment and emerging applications Research in the United States and United Kingdom should address ________________________________________________________________________ 47 CHAPTER 3 __________________________________________________________________ Exploration and prototyping of advanced high-end computing models that emphasize very large memory and its contents as connected information not discrete arrays of simple data types Programming tools suitable for HPC systems addressing parallel programming both centralised and distributed System software for HPC computers e g to support service oriented architectures and web services Improved knowledge discovery algorithms that can run largely unattended New inference engines capable of translating relatively open-ended high-level queries into efficient search procedures that understand the knowledge sets and their structure as currently available to the system Support tools for rapid high-productivity flexible programming and re-tasking of such systems and Appropriate metrics and one or more open test bed applications that permit the research community to explore and evaluate alternatives without revealing national security information As far as is practicable the United States and United Kingdom should collaborate on such activities 48 ________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS CHAPTER 4 DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INTRODUCTION The defence industry's leadership role in the electronic component industry has been diminishing for two reasons First the growth in commercial demand for electronics results in commercial markets that dwarf defence markets Second defence communities have chosen to develop high performance reliable complex systems that can only be afforded in small quantities e g satellites and stealth aircraft It is the ability to embed microelectronics in all parts of a platform including weapons that critically enables the design of such complex systems and thus electronics impacts all aspects of system design It is the combination of improvements in targeting geolocation and navigation precision that enables our militaries to not only hit the target on the first attempt but to hit in the right spot Today a B-2A bomber uses the Global Positioning System GPS intelligence imagery systems Milstar communications systems and the precision GPS guided joint direct attack munitions weapons to provide the destructive power of an entire air wing in World War II And it does so in all weather conditions Electronics are a major contributor to the net increase of 50 000 in targets per sortie from World War II to Operation Iraqi Freedom The Electronics Components Panel assessed the current and projected status of critical defence related electronic technologies We focused on four principal areas defence critical component technology silicon-based component technologies and manufacturing resources non-silicon based component technologies and manufacturing resources and available design talent and design tools ________________________________________________________________________ 49 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ ELECTRONIC COMPONENT METHODOLOGY AND SUPPLIER ASSESSMENT While federal funding of defence enabling technologies radio frequency RF electro-optical and infrared IR devices continues the explosion of commercial markets in the last decade driven by a great consumer appetite for advanced electronic technologies has fundamentally changed the availability adaptability and access for leading edge complementary metal-oxide semiconductor CMOS component technology for defence applications While the worldwide semiconductor demand increased by a factor of three to four over the past 15 years the DoD market share decreased as shown in Figure 1 Simultaneously in the United States the DoD contractor base restructured and consolidated as reported by the Defense Science Board DSB 7 These remaining few large contractors are now defined by the large complex system-of-systems they design integrate and produce They sell these highly effective systems in much fewer numbers and rely on small quantities of very specialized electronic components This consolidation driven by the reduced demand for defence equipment also had an impact on the electronic component suppliers' ability to support the unique and often stressing requirements of the defence systems As a result the DoD and the MoD are not only left in the position of being followers in some technologies that are critical to the military they often have no choice but to rely upon overseas suppliers as well This trend affects a number of electronic components and has motivated the recent studies by the Defense Science Board and the Advisory Group on Electron Devices 8 9 10 7 Defense Science Board Report Vertical Integration and Supplier Decisions May 1997 8 Defense Science Board Report DSB Task Force on High Performance Microchip Supply February 2005 9 Advisory Group on Electron Devices Special Technology Area Review on Commercial Off-the-Shelf COTS Electronic Components February 1999 10 Advisory Group on Electron Devices Special Technology Area Review on Field Programmable Gate Arrays for Military Applications September 2004 50 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS 2 0% 1 8% Worldwide Semiconductor Demand $200 1 6% 1 4% $150 1 2% 1 0% $100 0 8% 0 6% $50 0 4% 0 2% Percent Direct Military IC Demand $0 Military IC Demand Percent of Worldwide Semiconductor Demand World wide Semiconductor Demand $Billions $250 0 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure 1 Reduced DoD Semiconductor Market Share in the last Decade ELECTRONIC COMPONENT CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Defence critical component technology Electronic systems play a critical role in nearly all areas of defence applications Sensors communications electronic warfare command and information systems intelligence systems avionics vehicle electronics information assurance techniques weapons and virtually all logistical and weapons platforms rely heavily on integrated electronics and associated software The commercial world is also experiencing an ever-growing dependency on electronics in areas such as entertainment communications transportation power generation lighting medical systems and security As an example approximately 30% of the value of a modern premium automobile is now the cost of its electronic systems This huge investment in commercial electronics brings about both opportunity and threat for defence technology Opportunity because much of it can be re-used to meet defence needs given sufficient ________________________________________________________________________ 51 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ environmental and reliability standards but also threat due to the accessibility of this technology to military and terrorist adversaries However access to commercial electronic component technology does not automatically confer an advantage on an enemy often systems knowledge software technology and operational concepts have a critical part to play The Export Administration Regulations EAR managed by the Department of Commerce attempts to provide the United States with control on the export of commercial dual use electronic components identified on the Commerce Control List that could possibly bring a military benefit to other nations but often the global market place limits the effectiveness of the regulations and promotes the off-shore migration of the electronic industry U S industry representative indicated that these regulations often have a negative impact on their research and development investments and business strategy This frequently results in industry moving research development and production off-shore The relevance of the capability of electronics within military systems can be considered in three categories 1 Applications where the electronics does not play a vital role in giving the equipment or system a competitive advantage For example an intercom system within an armoured fighting vehicle a laptop computer running logistics software or an aircraft landing gear control module In all of these examples the electronics are important but having access to better components does not bring a greater military benefit This category was not considered further 2 Applications where the electronics play a vital part in determining the performance of the military equipment but where leading edge commercial components provide a sufficient capability Examples include the use of commercial Field Programmable Gate Arrays FPGAs in the latest military radios digital signal processors DSPs in missile seekers and large screens used in tactical displays In all of these applications commercial technology provides a good enough capability and investing in defence specific variants would not be cost-effective 52 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS 3 Applications where commercial components do not meet military requirements and where military-specific components are required to create the capability Examples include thermal imaging arrays analogue to digital converters for some specialized areas of electronic warfare and radio frequency components for military-band radars One determinant of the quality of an electronic component is the quality of its associated design tools Digital Application Specific Integrated Circuits ASICs can be highly integrated microcircuits and could soon reach a density of one billion gates The design tools used to synthesise a specification into a usable circuit are highly complex software suites Similarly the performance of mixed signal ASICs containing both analogue and digital circuits and analogue ASICs are to a great extent dependent on the quality of their associated computer design tools The evolution of the design tools has experienced difficulty in keeping up with the rapid evolution in microelectronic components as reflected in Moore's Law The availability of electronic components also depends upon the capability of the industrial base used to supply them and the means by which governments can influence this supply base Generally government-funded defence-specific electronic components category three above will be manufactured on-shore in trusted foundries whose security can be controlled This supply base is reasonably assured Commercial components used in defence-critical applications category two above can present more problems Vendors may choose to discontinue components due to commercial pressures such as obsolescence Off-shore non U S or UK vendors may not be trusted to supply in times of tension Off-shore vendors may have an opportunity to insert unwanted functions trapdoors into ASIC designs or to reverse-engineer their purpose The required environmental envelope of a military application may be outside of commercial specifications and the components may not be guaranteed to perform beyond such a specification ________________________________________________________________________ 53 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ While the DSB Electronic Components panel concentrated their analysis primarily on industrial and political issues to enable a more robust and innovative industrial base the DSAC panel focused their efforts on a bottom up analysis of known military capability requirements The UK results were shared with the U S counterparts and vice versa to allow the two efforts to reach a common conclusion The studies are entirely complementary Table 1 below lists the UK's top 15 electronic technologies and their priority The specific technologies on the list were found to be very similar to the U S needs although the individual priorities vary due to differing needs and national industrial strengths Table 1 UK Defence Critical Technology list and its associated priority category Defence Critical Technology Title Priority Analogue to Digital Converter ADC 1 Optically Sampled ADC 16-Bit Fixed-Point Precision DSP Implementations 32-Bit Floating-Point High Precision Arithmetic DSP Implementations RF Components for Adaptive Array Radar EW and Communications Systems Power Amplifier 2 2 Components for Antennas - Ultra-Broad Band Manpack Electronic Countermeasures Communications Antenna Superconducting Filters for EW and Communications RF through Optics Components for Burst Illumination and 3D Imaging Advanced Thermal Imaging Detectors Ultra Fast Photon Counting Technology Single Chip Photon Counting Fibres for High-Power Transmission and Fibre Lasers Sub-mm Wave TeraHertz Detectors and Sources Software tools for design capture and simulation of components 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 Priority ranked as 1 highest to 3 lowest 54 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS Often a technology list is best viewed through the lens of a specific mission or system It is through the specific system design that the true leverage and value as well as the specification can be calculated Thus the priorities are really mission specific and need to be viewed in that context Figure 2 lists the key technologies as seen by the U S intelligence's remote surveillance mission area It can be seen that many technologies are similar but also there are others that are unique Critical Technology List 4 Composite Lightweight Mirrors Adaptive Optics Large Focal Plane Arrays Uncooled Sensors Cryocoolers Avalanche Photo Diode Receiver Arrays Spectrometers Laser Technologies Electronic Optical Beam Steering High Power Microwave High Precision Clocks Rad Hardened Components Antennas RF Technologies Micro- and Nanotechnology Smart Spacecraft Structures In Space Propulsion Power Technologies Navigation Technologies Lightweight Structures and Mechanisms Spacecraft Computer Language On-Board Processing Autonomy Technologies Quantum technologies Mission Ground Processing Technologies Launch Vehicle Technologies Source Space Research And Development Industrial Base Study Phase Two Final Report August 2002 p 31 Figure 2 National Reconnaissance Office NRO key technologies required for the future of remote surveillance In considering the criticality of evolving and emerging electronic components it is important to understand the system architecture into which the components are being incorporated For example conventional receivers typically have used several stages of downconversion to translate the RF input signal down to a centre frequency that is low enough to be sampled by a realizable analogueto-digital A D converter Each down-conversion added complexity ________________________________________________________________________ 55 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ and sometimes undesired effects that limited overall system performance As A D converters become available with both high dynamic range and high sample rates it is now feasible in many cases to sample the RF signal directly This reduces the number of down-conversion stages and also eliminates the complexity and distortions introduced by the multiple stages Although this architecture may require a costly state-of-the-art A D converter the receiver simplicity and high fidelity performance make it attractive for many applications Other notable emerging technologies will impact system design An example is Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems MEMS The advantage of MEMS technologies do not necessarily lay in new functionality or better performing elements but rather in the miniaturization and higher level of integration MEMS is now enabling an even more transformational or disruptive capability that of an entire sub-system on a single chip Each key component measuring centimetres has been re-engineered using various MEMS techniques to archive dramatically smaller components measuring fractions of a millimetre yet still maintaining high performance An entire GPS receiver can now be integrated into a wristwatch to enable precise knowledge of time and space A complete networked radio information system can be integrated into sun-glasses or a helmet-goggle system This sub-system on a chip technology enabled by advanced ASICs and MEMS technologies show promise and could spur further miniaturization Silicon-based component technologies and manufacturing resources Most information processing is realized through the combination of memory chips DRAMs SRAMs etc which store data including programmes and programmable components such as ASICs application specific signal processors ASSPs programmable gate arrays PGAs CPUs network processing units and DSPs which perform operations on the data Of the two classes the 56 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS programmable components have more intricate designs and are where the DoD derives most of its advantage Manufacturing Stand-alone CPU and DSP parts are largely produced by integrated device manufacturers whereas PGAs ASSPs and ASICs are often manufactured at independent foundries Of the major U S commercial integrated device manufacturers and foundries only IBM Jazz Semiconductor and Peregrine Semiconductor retain domestic foundries to support leading edge defence applications Table 2 shows the remaining manufacturers the location of their U S based foundries and the technologies they support As a result the Department of Defense has launched a programme to develop a trusted foundry model initially with IBM with planned extensions to other foundry suppliers 11 This DoD programme will provide an assured chain of custody for classified and unclassified integrated circuits ensure that there will not be any reasonable threats related to disruption in supply prevent intentional or unintentional modification or tampering and protect them from unauthorized attempts at reverse engineering or evaluation of their possible vulnerabilities 11 See for example http www manufacturingnews com news 04 0203 art1 html or R Price Trusted ICs for Defense Applications GOMACTech-04 Tutorial Monterey 2004 ________________________________________________________________________ 57 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ TX CA o AMI o Pocatello ID o ATMEL o CO TX o BAE Systems o NH VA o Cirent Semi o Orlando FL o Cypress Semi o CA TX MN o Freescale Semiconductor o AZ TX o Hewlett Packard o CA CO o Honeywell o Plymouth MN o HRL Laboratories o IBM o IDT Intel o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Malibu CA o Fishkill NY Burlington VT o o CA OR o o NM AZ OR CO CA o CA o o o o o Jazz Semiconductor o o o CA CO OR Maxim Semiconductor o CA o Micron Technology o VA ID o Northrop Grumman o Linthicum MD o Peregrine Semiconductor o Texas Instruments o TX o o Vitesse Semiconductor o CO CA o o SanDiego CA o o LSI Logic o III-V GaAs InP SiGe CMOS o Rad Hard CMOS Bulk CMOS AMD SiGe BiCMOS Available Technology CMOS SOI Manufacturing Location Foundry Services Company Integrated Device Manufacturer Business Model II-VI HgCdTe Table 2 Major U S Commercial Integrated Device o o o o o 58 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS Manufacturers and Foundries While the initial Trusted Foundry effort is under development at IBM DARPA is funding a parallel technical effort to extend the successful Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Implementation System MOSIS to include trusted foundry suppliers The current and planned technology extensions are shown in Table 3 and will provide access to leading edge CMOS technology at modest volumes on a foundry basis Table 3 Trusted Foundry Technology Extensions to MOSIS Program Technology microns other Supplier 0 5 - 0 35 IBM CMOS 0 25 0 18 0 13 0 090 0 065 6SF 6RF 7SF 7RF 8SF 8RF 8SFG 9SF 10SF 9S2 9SFG IBM SOI 5HP OR 5SO 5DM 5AM 5HPE 5PA IBM SiGe AMI CMOS ABN 1 5u TSMC AMS 7HP 7WL CL025 CM025 CL018 CM018 8HP 9HP C5N C3N CL035 Peregrine 6HP 6DM SOI-SOS BiCMOS 0 8u CMP OMMIC GaAs CMP 0 2u Vitesse InP HBT JAZZ Note MOSIS develops access to advanced processes as soon as a viable customer base exists to support the new process TFMOSIS will be driven by the specific needs of the DoD in this regard Available or planned from Trusted Foundry Available from both Trusted Foundry and MOSIS Available from MOSIS Presently unavailable GOMACTECH 2004 The U S Integrated Device Manufacturers environment is somewhat healthier as U S based companies continue to lead in the high volume CPU and DSP sectors Although their manufacturing chains are globalized a substantial fraction of the leading edge wafer ________________________________________________________________________ 59 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ fabrication facilities associated with these parts remains in the United States 12 Component Design There is evidence that leading edge application specific ASIC ASSP design is migrating off-shore 13 Perhaps more importantly the non-recurring engineering costs associated with the development of an ASIC and ASSP have been rapidly increasing to the point that ASIC ASSP design is cost-effective only in cases where there is a compelling case that the resultant chip will be produced in sufficient volume to amortize the non-recurring engineering costs 14 Thus the use of leading edge ASICs by the DoD is becoming increasingly problematic 15 In contrast U S based companies continue to lead in the design of application independent programmable parts CPUs digital signal processors Network Processing Units Programmable Gate Arrays For example Texas Instruments is a leader in DSPs IBM and Freescale formerly Motorola are leaders in CPUs and Systems on a Chips with embedded processors Xilinx and Altera are leaders in Field Programmable Gate Arrays and Intel is a leader in Central Processing Units and Network Processing Units Placing emphasis on the use of standard programmable parts is attractive because these parts are manufactured in high volume thus when the DoD uses them it is a beneficiary of the economies of large manufacturing scale However DoD challenges and opportunities related to various types of Programmable Gate Arrays are so 12 As discussed in the High Performance Microchip Supply standing part packaging and test is almost exclusively performed off-shore and some IDMs are reliant on off-short mask suppliers 13 This topic was extensively covered in the High Performance Microchip Supply study 14 There may be additional low-volume cases where the value of integration e g to reduce weight and power make the non recurring engineering NRE justifiable However these become less common as NRE costs increase 15 NRE costs for parts that are a few generations behind the leading edge tend to be considerably lower 60 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS significant that they are addressed in a separate set of findings and recommendations Although U S based leadership does not in and of itself assure the trustworthiness of these parts or the continued scaling of their performance it does put the DoD in a superior position to potential adversaries whose systems rely on U S based designs and or inferior parts This advantage accrues not only to fielded weapon systems but to all aspects of the defence community and of our national infrastructures It would be a distinctly disadvantageous situation if all of our nation's PCs servers routers DSPs etc were to some day be built using designs whose suppliers are based in an adversarial country The current advantageous position cannot be taken for granted In the absence of a commitment to U S leadership in this space there is reason to believe that the global consolidation underway in the semiconductor industry will lead to the off-shore migration of these design capabilities There is some evidence that process has already begun Of perhaps greater importance is the decline in the DoD's investments in the visionary university research that has sustained the pace of innovation in information processing techniques i e in the design and application of these parts These reductions are threatening the wellspring of innovation in computer architectures algorithms programming languages distributed systems etc Without a continuing supply of such innovations the ongoing translation of Moore's Law progress into defence systems and thus our overall information superiority is threatened In particular without dramatic improvements in the design and application of programmable devices the DoD and MoD will not be able to extract benefit from their unparalleled leadership in many critical defence technologies such as sensors Non-silicon based component technologies and manufacturing resources In other technologies such as IR focal-plane-arrays FPAs radiation hardened electronics compound semiconductors III-V and II-VI and Mixed-Signal ASICs the United States currently maintains ________________________________________________________________________ 61 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ a significant technological lead By securing expanding and controlling this lead the DoD and the MoD will continue to have the opportunity to leverage technological innovation to maintain a significant edge in system performance DoD has traditionally funded leading-edge low-volume electronic technologies e g Microwave Millimetre Wave Monolithic Integrated Circuit IR FPAs analogue-to-digital and digital-toanalogue converters etc However for those technologies where large commercial markets have developed e g Gallium Arsenide GaAs high power amplifiers for wireless communication mediumperformance analogue to digital converters and digital to analogue converters etc the DoD has found it difficult to maintain reliable onshore suppliers willing to design and or manufacture for lowvolume specialty military applications The panel believes that these specialty electronic technologies can enable unique military capabilities in the future Specific examples of these technologies include Mercury-Cadmium-Telluride HgCdTe Focal Plane Arrays and associated Readout integrated circuits Large-format imagers and longer wavelength e g Very Long Wave IR imagers can provide the ability to detect and image relatively cool threats in complex backgrounds This capability will be a key to future air and missile defence systems However difficult material and manufacturing issues and the resulting costs make it unlikely that significant commercial markets will develop for these technologies High-speed InP Mixed-Signal Circuits DARPA's Technology for Frequency Agile Synthesized Transmitters programme has recently demonstrated complex digital logic devices with clock rates in excess of 150 GigaHertz This technology will enable significant improvement in A D converters digital to analogue converters direct digital synthesizers and high-bandwidth communications The systems that 62 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS will be developed using these components e g radars signal intelligence receivers digital radios etc will be lower in cost higher in performance higher in reliability and more adaptive due to the flexibility added once analogue subsystems are replaced with digital circuitry Gallium Nitride GaN Newly emerging components in GaN will offer unique performance enhancements for military systems Prototypes of high-power amplifiers low-noise amplifiers and even digital circuits have been demonstrated in GaN Among GaN's unique characteristics are ability to operate at high temperature ability to tolerate high terminal voltages and a presumed inherent radiation tolerance GaN devices have demonstrated very high power densities and competitive noise figures at frequencies well into the millimetre waves Other emerging technologies exotic electronic materials are currently being examined or developed by the DoD Examples include the antimonide compounds diamond materials and even carbon-nanotube-based devices Many such materials have special thermal or bandgap properties that make them potential critical enablers of future systems Although the panel was briefed on research and development efforts related to each of the specialty electronics areas listed above we were not made aware of any coordinated efforts by the Office of the Secretary of Defense to ensure either the maintenance of a critical edge or low-volume design and production capability for these technologies For these technologies there is no equivalent of the government supported efforts in CMOS i e MOSIS and the trusted foundry We heard concerns from the developers and suppliers of specialty electronics technologies regarding the viability of their future design and low-volume production capability It is the opinion of the panel that DoD and the MoD should jointly and separately develop and manage a plan to not only maintain our ________________________________________________________________________ 63 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ lead but to expand it in these technologies Keeping in mind the lessons learned from CMOS in the 1990's the panel believes that the DoD and MoD should ensure that onshore design and low- to medium-volume microelectronic fabrication capabilities exist in these technologies Available design talent and design tools The defence trend toward fewer but more capable systems means that there are fewer people in the defence work force with programme experience Reduced personnel with appropriate experience will ultimately limit the ability to design and develop complex systems and system-of-systems It is the case that this work force - in engineering to manufacturing - is more efficient due to the use of modern tools such as automation tools for 3-D computer aided design simulation and modelling to create a simulation based design capability and the automation of the factory floor with computer aided manufacturing processes This limited programme experience base gives more reason to develop advanced design tools that can make an individual more productive Of particular value are tools to rapidly capture a design in a form that allows parametric functional modelling in order to perform virtual evaluation and design libraries containing modular standard functional blocks that can be rapidly reused The solid state electronics which found their way into nearly every aspect of the communication satellites provide a good example of the increasing complexity the designers must manage As electronic components became more capable of lower weight and smaller and more reliable the satellite system's capability grew along with its complexity This evolution in capability and complexity are shown in Figure 3 Standard cells and gate arrays used in satellites grew in complexity along with general purpose microprocessors Since 1995 the introduction of ASICs and FPGAs enabled custom switched telephony that connects arbitrary caller to arbitrary caller without the aid of any ground based systems and 64 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS permitted the transfer of data at tens of gigabytes per second which made high bandwidth video applications like Direct TV possible COMPLEXITY TRANS STORS 10 8 10 10 IBM IBM CU-65 IBM CU-08 CU-11 IBM SA-27 Pentium III Pentium II Pentium Pro Pentium 7 6 Commercial Full Custom High NRE Microprocessors SOI4 80486 80386 10 HS-601 UHF F O Command Security Module 4 3 PCSP AJ VLSI EHF 8086 10 Transition to Commercial ASICs GEM Thuraya 80286 8080 10 SS4Q ICO SS4E Source Intel Corp 5 IBM SA-12 TCM AESOP Spaceway WGS UFO Commercial Std Cell Gate Array 1975 1980 Milstar-I DDS Digital Processing 1985 RAD Hard Standard Cell Products 1990 1995 INSERTION YEAR 2000 2005 2010 Figure 3 The evolution of processing complexity over the last 30 years in Military and Commercial Communication Satellites FPGAs are employed in large numbers as a standard way to manage the cost and design complexity of modern electronic systems It is not uncommon to find subsystems using 100 FPGAs and tens of ASICs all programmed to accomplish different functions and modern systems having 1000 FPGAs and 100 ASICs in total If design tools and design engineers were of sufficient supply today we would see entire systems designed primarily with ASICs due to their higher performance but due to limitations in both tools and the work force companies are forced to organize their work force around a few FPGAs and ASICs This may limit the capability of future systems Radiation hardened microelectronics are required to ensure that key military systems can perform in the combined nuclear and natural space radiation space environments Without radiation hardened microelectronics U S military power - including ________________________________________________________________________ 65 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ conventional military power - and battlefield satellite communications and data transfer could be disrupted Typical total dose and dose rate radiation hardened requirements for defence systems are illustrated in the Figure 4 Radiation tolerant electronic components are sufficient for commercial communications satellites and many National Aeronautics and Space Administration missions Requirements for upper radiation hardened electronics are almost exclusively dominated by defence systems The COTS market for radiation hardened electronics is insufficient to warrant investments by the commercial sector and must be addressed by the DoD Design talent and tools will only be available if funded by the defence users Low Strategic Missiles 12 11 10 10 Strategic Digital Dose Rate rad Si s Exo Interceptors 10 10 Strategic Space 9 Avionics 10 10 10 High Spacecraft Processors Rad 8 Hard Endo Interceptors 10 Upper Hard 10 Extreme 7 6 5 s Up cr 10 2 Rad Tolerant ion eg R ng ni ee 10 3 Medium Low Ground Systems 0 Other Military Space Total Dose Hard 10 High Strategic Analog 10 Medium 13 10 Commercial civil space 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 Total Dose rad Si Figure 4 Radiation Hardening map for Radiation Tolerant to Radiation Hard 66 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRONIC COMPONENT CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITION PATHS In the silicon-based semiconductor space the industry has partnered with government and universities to establish the Semiconductor Research Corporation and Microelectronics Advanced Research Corporation MARCO research consortia The former operates in a roadmap-driven fashion while the latter undertakes longer term and higher risk research While successful the MARCO programme has never been fully funded and the DoD contractor base has not been effectively integrated into it More importantly there is no equivalent partnership to stimulate university research in computer architecture or its application software Historically DARPA has been a major agent driving innovation in these spaces However in recent years its role and influence over university research has substantially diminished Arguably this has resulted in less aggressive behaviour on the part of the university research community i e a shift in the balance towards incremental research as opposed to the visionary high-risk efforts that have enabled information superiority RECOMMENDATIONS Finding Maintaining U S Leadership in Semiconductor Technologies critical to National Defence Electronic technologies play a critical role in defence systems the DoD must continue to protect and support critical electronic technologies to maintain asymmetric advantage These critical technologies are listed in Table 1 with high priority emphasis on FPGAs compound semiconductors electro-optical components radiation hardened components as well as high power and high frequency radio frequency components State-of-the art wafer manufacturing facilities fabs are being established in the Far East in order to support the rapid increase in consumption in the region As a result the United States no longer has the asymmetric technology advantage that it once had vis-a-vis ________________________________________________________________________ 67 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ our adversaries and potential adversaries The United States is not behind But it is no longer as far ahead as it once was One consequence of this is that state-of-the-art COTS technology is available to our adversaries Some observers' worry that the move of wafer fabrication fab to the Far East is the beginning of a trend and that soon all wafer manufacturing will move to the Far East and the United States will not have an assured and trusted supply of state-of-the-art integrated circuits ICs However it is the view of the DSB task force that in the next 10-20 years wafer manufacturing in the United States will remain sufficiently strong to support DoD needs in the event of supply disruption in the Far East One key reason is that the cost of wafer fab in the Far East is not substantially cheaper than the cost of wafer fab in the United States Wafer fab costs are dominated by capital depreciation and low cost labour has minimal impact on wafer fab cost These issues have been addressed by the recent Defence Science Board Task Force report on High Performance Microchip Supply February 2005 This panel endorses the relevant recommendations made in that report Technologies that are critical to DoD needs and that have minimal commercial use require DoD support for the continued advancements needed to maintain superiority They include III-V components The DoD need for high frequency and high power components requires III-V technology Most of the commercial RF products currently use frequencies 5 GigaHertz and below For these applications Silicon CMOS Silicon Bipolar CMOS and Silicon Germanium Bipolar CMOS are replacing III-V components II-VI components II-VI compounds such as HgCdTe for night vision systems remain almost exclusively the domain of DoD systems There is almost no commercial utilization of II-VI technology Radiation hard components Commercial satellites require radiation tolerant components which defence 68 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS satellites require radiation hardened components DoD requires availability of Upper Rad Hard components DoD must continue the development of rad-hard technology Technologies for which DoD systems require higher performance components to enhance total system performance beyond the commercial needs include - A D converters with performance beyond 14bit at 500 MSPS - Opto-electronic components and subsystems - TeraHertz components - High efficiency space qualified solar cells and - Readout ICs Recommendation Design Tools The DoD should develop Computer Aided Design Tools to enable the design of affordable low volume high performance custom ASICS The cost of designing high-performance custom ASICs in 90 nanometre CMOS is on the order of $20M and increases with every technology generation The high cost of reticles is often cited as the reason for the demise of low volume custom ASICs in 90 nanometre CMOS but in fact the design cost far exceeds the $1M cost of reticles DoD systems requirements demand high performance low volume custom ASICs Tool development should be directed to solve the specific problems that result in the increase in design cost for leading edge CMOS particularly timing closure in physical design and statistical design to optimally design margin for parameter variation The tools should be integrated into the industry mainstream toolset for CMOS design The development can be cost-shared with the commercial industry The commercial Electronic Design Automation industry is currently developing such tools but rate of investment is not sufficient to meet the challenge for DoD While commercial industry will benefit from these tools the DoD will ________________________________________________________________________ 69 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ benefit disproportionately because of the importance of their contribution to the development of low volume high performance custom ASICs Recommendation Dual Use Technologies Notwithstanding the erosion of the U S lead in technology as discussed in the DSB Task Force report on High Performance Microchip Supply the United States has a continuing lead in the design of the following dual-use technologies Fixed Floating point DSPs and CPUs and their software FPGAs see finding on use of COTS by our adversaries and their firmware and Very high performance A D converters Because these technologies are critical for the superior performance of DoD systems the DoD needs to ensure that this lead is maintained and that these technologies are exploited for DoD systems Recommendation Trusted Foundries The DoD should continue and expand the trusted foundry initiative Additional foundries should be added CMOS among the trusted foundries should be standardized in order to reduce the cost to DoD for developing new chips and to provide multiple sources for ICs DoD should also monitor the number of new U S based fabs and provide incentives for U S companies to locate fabs in the United States as required Recommendation Military Unique Electronic Components There are many technologies that have limited commercial use at present and may provide new capabilities for future defence systems They include Components for Adaptive Array Radar 70 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS Wide bandgap power devices for extreme environments Components for Antennas Superconducting Filters for Electronic Warfare and Communications RF through optics photonics Components for 3-D Imaging Advanced Thermal Imaging Detectors Single Chip Photon Counting High-Power Fiber Lasers Diodes Sub-millimetre Wave TeraHertz tech Retro-reflective tags Novel materials for antennas and Light-emitting polymers These technologies are candidates for joint DoD-MoD technology development efforts These hedge-technology investments might best be developed in either a collaborative fashion or each country could focus on different pre-competitive technologies and share the research results in a fashion similar to that done by industry Recommendation Talented Workforce The United States and the United Kingdom face an increasing shortage of engineers and this shortage affects results in a shortage for DoD and for MoD contractors The shortage is particularly acute in the area of mixedsignal design The number of American engineers graduating from U S universities is decreasing and enrolment in U S engineering graduate schools is increasingly dominated by foreigners The United States needs to take action to develop engineering manpower for DoD engineering needs In 2005 the Director of Defense Research and Engineering started to address this need for highly educated U S citizens in technical fields relevant to DoD by initiating the National Defense Education Program In addition to vigorously supporting this program the DoD should do the following to improve the workforce available to support defence electronics needs ________________________________________________________________________ 71 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ Encourage development of government sponsored U S student industry academic apprenticeships and Advocate changes to our immigration quotas to enable and encourage immigration and retention of the best students who get their graduate degrees in U S engineering colleges and who want to remain in the United States Finding Importance of Adaptability and Programmable Gate Arrays The United States appears to have a unique advantage in the design of FPGAs and with the design of systems that exploit a mix of FPGAs and ASICs 16 Recently the defence primes have begun to adopt Programmable Gate Arrays PGAs technology to support a variety of digital signal processing needs PGAs especially FPGAs are rapidly becoming the essential high performance integrated circuit building block of choice for many commercial and defence systems As their performance complexity cost and capacity have improved these devices have begun to challenge the use of Application Specific Integrated Circuits in many electronic systems In some applications their ability to incorporate built-in core functionality such as those of microprocessors or DSPs have led to preferred system level solutions over traditional design approaches A comprehensive Special Technology Area Review STAR was recently conducted by the Advisory Group on Electron Devices Among other things this review found that the Department of Defense has been an early adopter of FPGA technology to reduce the design cost and development time of technology insertion Furthermore the STAR found that a very capable but currently small DoD design community is emerging 16 Special Technology Area Review on Field Programmable Gate Arrays FPGAs for Military Applications Report of the Department of Defense Advisory Group on Electron Devices July 2005 72 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS The STAR reviewed all major aspects of FPGAs for military use and found that immature FPGA technology has already been incorporated into military systems with significant impact on cost and schedule The traditional role that FPGAs have played as glue chips in electronic systems has changed as their complexity and functionality has increased in recent years DoD designers have chosen FPGAs over ASICs overwhelmingly because FPGAs have a large variety of intellectual property IP hardware cores e g Power PC 405 including various high-speed input output circuits up to 10 Gigabits per second Gbps Rapid input output This panel endorses the findings and recommendations of this FPGA STAR They include FPGAs have found widespread use and acceptance in digital military electronics systems The domain of applicability is growing at the expense of general purpose processor and ASIC solutions due to functionality availability and development prototyping advantages Processing speed power consumption dissipation and functionality are the primary performance selection metrics for applications Low non-recurring engineering cost availability and reduced development time are economic selection drivers Reconfigurability to address evolving requirements and extend mission life remains a selection driver This is especially important for long life remote platforms such as satellites Application for space and harsh military environments is still problematic due to unknown reliability problems and or lack of design information and qualification radiation immunity testing System design tools lag hardware in capability and ease of use serving to limit the realization of FPGA technology for military applications ________________________________________________________________________ 73 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ The engineering cadre skilled in the design and application of FPGAs in military electronics system design is scarce There is no standardization among FPGA hardware and design software This restricts portability of designs among and across vendor's product lines Short FPGA product life cycle is at odds with military legacy system logistic demands A new paradigm is required in the government for planned upgrades The Trusted Source concept is viewed as potentially restricting competition reducing technology advances increasing cost and reducing supply Security concerns with FPGAs are not viewed as a severe problem due to domestic procurement of standard and programming control Battery back-up and encryption storage methods are viewed as solutions to be implemented as required Off-shore fabrication is not identified as a major concern except for the lack of visibility into processing changes at the manufacturer and their potential detrimental affect on performance reliability Periodic lot testing is suggested as a solution In addition this panel endorses the recommendations of the DSB Task Force Report on High Performance Microchip Supply We repeat their recommendation that the DoD support research to enable firmware integrity A targeted DoD programme in the area of firmware integrity would likely lead to the rapid development dissemination and adoption of improvements to these trust-related aspects of programmable parts Today's standard parts especially FPGAs offer limited protection against the compromise of their firmware i e the configuration software that is loaded into the parts prior to or during execution The loading of low-level firmware e g the BIOS into CPUs can also have similar vulnerabilities However it is likely that suppliers of commercial parts would incorporate protective measures 74 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS if they were readily available Thus DoD investment in university research in this area could yield significant improvements in the trustworthiness of standard parts Recommendation Adaptability and Programmable Gate Arrays The DoD should consider the utility of the creation of a library of re-usable DoD-relevant firmware building blocks In the commercial sector one of the attractions of PGAs is the availability those building blocks either in open source or licensable form This advantage could be extended to the defence sector through the creation of a web-based forum for the exchange of PGA firmware building blocks that can be re-used across DoD systems The re-use of known good building blocks could reduce cost development time and risk Furthermore it could ameliorate the impact of the scarce pool of designers with expertise in the hardware implementation of key signal processing algorithms Finding Commercial Electronics marketplace has made obsolete the U S Export Administration Regulations EAR The U S EAR is based on the assumption that technology advantage resides to a great extent in the United States and its export should be controlled In electronics while U S companies do have certain technology advantages commercial companies have global markets for both development and sales Forces in those markets together with impediments created by the Export Administration Regulations often promote off-shore migration of technology development and production capability of the electronic industry Where EAR identify technology capability thresholds sometimes those thresholds are not maintained at appropriately discriminating levels EAR restrictions can even encourage the development of foreign sources of technology and are completely ineffective in keeping critical technology from our potential adversaries where components of comparable performance are available elsewhere These problems with the current Export Administration Regulations result in a loss in technology development investments by U S companies in addition to a loss of business and a high administrative ________________________________________________________________________ 75 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ cost of compliance sometimes with no redeeming protection of U S technology This issue of economic competitiveness is also relevant to ITAR regulations which are focused on controlling the exports of items and technologies with direct military and little or no civilian application With increased reliance on foreign military sales and technical cooperation with international partners a more agile process that balances security and industrial concerns are needed in order to deliver military capability in a more timely and efficient manner Recommendation The United States should re-evaluate export controls EAR and ITAR as it pertains to the critical microelectronics New regulations should recognize modern market forces and allow the export of technology that is available in foreign markets A time phased downgrading should allow older generations of technology to be exportable This will help to balance the threat of the loss of technical leadership against the restriction of technology released to foreign markets Ideally new regulations would allow the United States to export technology that is just a bit better than the foreign competition Finding Use of COTS by our adversaries Modern COTS electronics technologies are enabling both nationstates and terrorists to obtain significant military capabilities at modest costs Furthermore the rapid pace of change in the commercial world allows such adversaries to quickly evolve and advance their capabilities In the past the development of key military technologies e g computers night vision spread-spectrum radio etc was controlled by the military Governments spent large sums of money developing and controlling these technologies The huge consumer markets for advanced technologies have not only overtaken the government influence in the electronics business but the magnitude of these markets has accelerated the rate of technological advance 76 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS Video games computers and consumer electronics drive the processor markets Telecom drives the networking market Cell phones drive the spread-spectrum and software-controlled radio businesses Even DoD-funded technologies that were once controlled by DoD such as GPS had to yield to commercial market influences Extremely powerful COTS technologies such as Wi-Fi Bluetooth public-key encryption and the Internet continue to evolve and advance at a dizzying pace due to commercial market forces Very effective and militarily significant tools are at the disposal of our adversaries The improvised explosive devices used today in Iraq are one example of this Commercial satellite imagery is widely available and subject to resolution enhancement by COTS processors Hand-held GPS units can provide precision target locations The internet cell phones pagers satellite telephones etc can be combined to provide a robust global command and control network at an insignificant cost Furthermore if the past is any predictor of the future very substantial advances in these kinds of capabilities at even lower costs can be anticipated Recommendation DoD and MoD need to prepare for dealing with the COTS-equipped adversary Studies should be initiated to understand the strengths weaknesses and vulnerabilities of COTS based systems that can serve key military capabilities like communications sensing etc These studies could lead to the development of counter-COTS systems to exploit vulnerabilities Exploitable vulnerabilities that should be explored include intercept detection geolocation infiltration and spoofing It is equally important that the DoD and the MoD reduce the acquisition cycle time for electronic components for its'systems in order to exploit the rapid pace of change for intelligence command and control and weapons systems This could be accomplished by designing systems intended to be adaptable to a rapidly evolving threat based on leveraging the commercial market offerings ________________________________________________________________________ 77 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ Finding Failure of COTS to meet DoD MoD Quality Reliability requirements COTS integrated circuits have different design testing and environmental requirements and are not suitable in many military applications without additional adaptation and or qualification As the DoD and the MoD have come to rely on these COTS parts some critical systems have become vulnerable Some of the environmental challenges are relatively obvious i e COTS ICs are explicitly not designed or tested for space applications However there are other cases where a COTS part might come close but not quite be able to meet military requirements For example COTS ICs typically are not intended for use at the extremes of the outdoor artic and desert temperature ranges to which military systems are sometimes subjected Similarly the performance of a COTS part might degrade over time in a manner that does not compromise its integrity during its specified commercial lifetime yet may compromise longer-lived military systems In some of the above cases it might be possible for a third party to qualify parts for the harsher environment through extended testing e g for lifetime and temperature range environmentally controlled packaging etc However the opaqueness of COTS parts i e the limited availability of design information can mask fundamental limitations that may not be apparent through such black box testing One particular area of concern is with testing which is a substantial fraction of the manufacturing cost of modern integrated circuits Manufacturers rigorously test their products to reduce the substantial cost of allowing parts that do not meet their specifications to escape into the market resulting in customer disappointment recalls brand impairment etc Nonetheless the degree of testing to which parts are subjected is the subject of a cost and benefit analysis that trades-off the incremental costs of additional testing against the risks and potential costs of escapes A key assumption underlying these trade-offs is that most COTS ICs are not intended for use in life or death applications Thus when escapes occur their remedy 78 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ DEFENCE CRITICAL ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS typically involves short-term inconvenience rather than loss of life or the long term impairment of a strategic asset such as a space vehicle Escaped parts may produce dire consequences in military situations Recommendation The DoD should forge coalitions with other sectors that face similar stringent requirements for COTS parts that meet higher quality and openness demands e g the automotive industry public utilities healthcare etc These broader coalitions should find a common set of requirements that meet their reliability openness and quality needs Of these the automotive industry may be the most advanced in obtaining COTS-like parts that meet quality standards considerably above those of consumer electronics Finding Where are the new innovations and technologies One final concern that arose during the panel's deliberations is the belief that the list of critical technologies is surprisingly familiar with few if any being new additions that would not have been on a list compiled five or ten years ago Of those that are new many are technologies that can be substituted for existing components - as opposed to those that create revolutionary new capabilities A failure to discover and develop revolutionary new technologies is of particular concern given the belief that new systems concepts often arise in response to the development of new component technologies Recommendation The panel recommends that the DoD and MoD conduct a longitudinal analysis of the emergence of novel electronics to determine whether or not the electronics discovery engine has slowed and if so identify the root causes including the impact of organisational and process changes For example one process hypothesis to be investigated is whether the early coupling of research to DoD acquisition programme offices is impeding the development of new technologies i e if a key criterion for investment in a new component technology is the support of a preexisting systems programme office then one should not be surprised to see a dearth of revolutionary new technologies of the sort that in ________________________________________________________________________ 79 CHAPTER 4 __________________________________________________________________ the past would have led to the creation of new capabilities This type of linkage might be particularly acute in the current environment in which few new systems are under development SUMMARY The DSB and DSAC Electronic Components panels have studied a number of specific defence critical electronic components with a view to examining the role they play in determining the performance of defence systems and the key issues that are facing our defence industries in the light of ever increasing globalization The critical security of supply chain and the robustness and innovativeness of our industrial base were reviewed and recommendations made to better focus and enable their long term health as well as the security of our respective nations 80 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS CHAPTER 5 ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS INTRODUCTION The reason for our interest in Advanced Command Environments ACE is to enhance the command function and increase military effectiveness Command is at the heart of military capability and is essentially a human activity We therefore take a human-centric view of ACE The U S and UK panels encountered the ACE problem first hand in the course of this study Information technology and current stateof-the-art commercial tools fell far short of enabling collaboration at a distance even for these modest sized panels It was not until the UK and U S panels decided to physically meet and visit some of the key military locations to hear firsthand the warfighter's view that consensus on the goals of the study emerged The U S team came to agree with the UK team that without a framework for analysis and metrics for assessing a particular technology there would not be much chance for sound evaluation DISCUSSION Definition of Advanced Command Environments We believe it is appropriate to use a broad definition of a command environment if we are to ensure that all components are successfully integrated and together support superior human command performance The ACE must therefore take into account physical layout equipment information processes organisation team membership doctrine culture and any other relevant contextual factors An advanced command environments has component elements including the physical surroundings of the members of the command staff the information space that the ACE supports and the physical ________________________________________________________________________ 81 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ and social connectivity provided to material assets and to other members of the command staff and its supporting organisations In addition the environment is so integrated into command staff activity that it must support the formal and informal processes being executed by that staff This holds true for all levels of command Physical Surroundings The physical elements in the near vicinity of command staff members form their surroundings architecturally and ergonomically Physical objects light sound and the way that the material objects affect humans all play a part in the command team's ability to be aware understand remain focused carry out physical and mental tasks and not suffer undue fatigue over the watch time Information Space The command environment supports the presentation of a virtual information space or volume Just as the personnel occupy a physical location they operate within this information space The most critical aspect of the information space is whether each member of the command staff receives digests and can use the information elements needed while being able to ignore information that is irrelevant or of insufficient priority for the task being carried out by the human The job of the environment is to permit humans to operate at high productivity levels Technological systems within the command environment present information graphically display it in myriad forms on demand and automatically Other systems process extant information to change its form and to derive new information Technology for processing and displaying information has advanced to the stage that command staffs demand what they describe as situational awareness presentations which are the result of accumulating and amalgamating raw and interpreted information from many sources into a holistic view The advanced command environment should present situational awareness descriptions in a fashion that best 82 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS serves the specific commander and staff with their own knowledge insight and judgement Information can be presented in myriad representations One of the challenges of designing an advanced command environment is to determine how to adapt information from one format to another - without loss of accuracy - and to amalgamate information from many sources possibly deriving new information that some may view as new information or even knowledge Because the information fed into a command environment is typically created independently from the command environment integration of both representations and even of information itself is an immense challenge Feeds may be technically and semantically incompatible The command environment must support an understanding of situational awareness that appears to the command staff to be stable over time Information needs to be timely if feeds permit Information that will be presented repeatedly needs to be kept in data bases accessible to command environment systems Hence there is substantial background task of maintaining both historic and reference data as well as the information in the instantaneous situational picture Connectivity The command environment provides connectivity from the command staff members to assets that they control on air land and sea as well as network connectivity to remote members of the staff or to supporting and superior organisations Network bandwidth depends upon the locations of the communicating entities Over time bandwidth improves as communication technologies improve In the near future new capabilities such as Transformation Communications Future Combat Systems and the Joint Tactical Radio System should enhance bandwidth Today in practice information feeds are gated by the ability of the command environment to receive and to send using the network assets deployed as well as competing demands on backbones Latency the time for a signal to travel from end to end and therefore interactive ________________________________________________________________________ 83 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ responsiveness is limited fundamentally by the speed of light and practically by less than idea communications Support of Command Staff Processes The advanced environment is more integral to the activity of the command staff than environments of the past As a result the environment must effectively support the command staff activity and the human value it brings to operations This entails support for its procedures often step by step Consequently the environment must scale to fit location communication capability size of the command team and its specific objectives For coalition partners in a command environment the handling of multiple levels of security on a need to share versus the current need to know is required both for current data and for the background intelligence needed for interpretation The environment must allow a command thread from initiation of a command action through to its execution to form perform and disperse on an ad hoc basis In summary the environment needs to support organisational as well as individual agility Our assessment of ACE must be focused on the output or endproduct Our measure of goodness is the effectiveness in delivering desired military effects in the desired manner Concepts and doctrine types of operation and conditions of operation e g in coalition with global visibility will determine the what when and how of the ACE outputs The idea of a human-centric view of the architecture is a key theme in our findings Without the ability for human beings to interact around diverse perspectives of the same situation decisionmaking effects-based operations and collaborative evaluation are not easily achieved This was illustrated by the panel's own experience of collaboration The social human architecture enabled us to reach consensus while an architecture based on technology video teleconference etc did not Furthermore this approach allowed us to consider the issue of organisational agility To paraphrase a 84 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS concept paper prepared by the Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre17 by organisational agility we mean the ability of the humans in a command organisation to think creatively adapt improvise and respond to the unexpected It is what humans do best One of the dangers of modern command systems is that they can allow or even lead a commander to over-control the environment which may prevent necessary improvisation at the lower levels of command Organisational agility is characterised by four attributes responsiveness robustness flexibility and adaptability If an advanced command environment is to support and enable organisational agility then that environment must be designed around the human participants answering to their needs and amplifying their strengths and capabilities Our focus remains on the development and use of technologies to enhance command and the key to doing this effectively is to consider command environments to be human-centric systems Since the United States and the United Kingdom can expect to be part of the same military system projecting a coalition military capability in the future the development and application of a human-centric command environment should be an area of technical collaboration between us TECHNOLOGIES ASSOCIATED WITH ACE The critical technologies other than human-centric methods that are associated with ACE are in various stages of development in a wide variety of commercial and government markets Three technologies will drive the command environment as key enabling elements The first is large scale media management as practiced by major video broadcast news agencies such as FOX NBC or Sky News The second is remote collaboration which is emerging in global enterprise management in both the government and the private sector The third is in visualization technology which has its roots in the entertainment and media sector 17 The UK Joint High Level Operational Concept An Analysis of the Components of the UK Defence Capability Framework para 202 ________________________________________________________________________ 85 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ Large scale media management encompasses the end-to-end flow of information from the creation development retention dissemination and destruction of each bit in a distributed system The required technologies for end-to-end media management E2EM2 in ACE are network management for converged information architectures Multiple protocol label switching will allow information to flow through the environment as voice video or data all in the Internet protocol format while accommodating the widely different data rates display capabilities or security of end devices or users Very large database technologies such as tuple storing will allow the rigor of a structured database to have some of the advantages of Google's capability Databases will be measured in exabytes not petabytes but will still have the required control for command This will enable search and access using XML and will create the ability to horizontally integrate traditional islands of automation without converting relational databases E2EM2 will also benefit from new storage technologies such as laser optical tape and metadata generation technologies Collaboration technology is accelerating in the large multinational corporations Collaborative network environments that run on top of E2EM2 systems allow for teams to develop a joint understanding of the opportunities and constraints that are before them Pharmaceutical research companies are moving quickly to deploy corporate wide collaboration technology Key elements of this technology are advanced video teleconferencing human interface devices such as video tables large displays eye-limited resolution work stations gesture recognition tools virtual environments attention cueing graphical relations analysis tools Bayseian-based decision tools and chat schemes These technologies are efforts to improve the human to human connection Visualization technology is rooted in the entertainment sector The use of special effects to convey a complex situation is becoming more important in the art of story telling In the ACE the E2EM2 will perform the complicated information tasks but the visualization layer will allow the command team to do what humans do best which is to understand the complex A critical step between information and 86 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS knowledge is visualization Key advances in this area are very large seamless displays Synthetically fused images from heterogeneous sources create an almost omnipresent experience for the commander Visual simulations of real world models are commonplace in the massive gaming industry Holographic and other three dimensional techniques are in development to give better situational awareness and improve the common operating picture THE HUMAN AT THE CENTRE OF THE ENVIRONMENT The challenges of harnessing new information technologies to design and operate advanced command environments are great While the human must be at the centre of the environment the technologies permit changes in process and organisation that can yield new and useful capabilities The environment must enhance and not hinder the human beings who are providing flexibility rationality accountability and creativity Ingenuity will still come from people not from automated systems Three major defence challenges exist when developing advanced command environments 1 Technology must not erode or limit valuable human capability Yet for some highly sophisticated technical system-of-systems the human appears to be the limiting factor Key concerns include - Constraints on people imposed by technology that may erode the value humans bring to military capability e g information management demands can constrain flexibility - Demands on people to deal with a greater complexity and range of functions - Demands on people to respond more rapidly than they are comfortable with ________________________________________________________________________ 87 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ - The diversity of demands of future operations and command including the need to carry out very different tasks - Insufficient integration between teams horizontally and vertically to create a seamless networked capability - Difficulties in team interactions involving a wider range of cultures processes situations e g more remote team working other government departments coalition and the need to rapidly integrate and collaborate with many new people in coalition command centres - Insufficient and diminishing numbers of people and lack of appropriate skills and - Greater technological and information overhead 2 New command-related concepts are being developed which rely on a greater understanding of human interaction and performance issues These concepts need to be evaluated in the new military environment Some of the concepts are - Distributed decision making - Agile mission groups forces that can be configured on demand to address a wide range of effects based operations fighting peacekeeping humanitarian etc - Increased reach-back - Command by exception - Command in a distributed environment - Effects based operations comprehensive approach and - Large scale modelling simulation and wargaming 88 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS 3 The way in which existing command concepts such as mission command can operate in the new military environment of Effects Based Planning is not understood Current military planning has a constrained set of options that is quickly expanding to include the use of military systems for relief efforts counter-terror policing and administration of local governments Given the sensitivity of human behaviour to environmental influences we cannot take for granted that current effective human performance will continue unaffected as we introduce new technology and information An advanced command environment is intended to support transformed command processes Compared to processes of the past tomorrow's command processes will involve faster decision cycles orders of magnitude more data available to be digested by the command staff and more diverse sources of data as well as human perspectives The desire to build advanced command environments breaks new ground Today's experts have insufficient understanding of how human beings interact reason reach consensus and make decisions in a fast-paced information-rich collaborative environment The relative immaturity of knowledge about human beings is a formidable impediment As we have said before the command environments must be human-centric Therefore the issues of how humans perform and behave must be considered early in the design It is very difficult to articulate requirements for systems when fundamental knowledge of how to design information systems to support human processes is not well understood There has been insufficient investment in research to achieve an understanding of how humans perform in a system-of-systems military context where technology information organisation culture process and people are integrated More specifically new command concepts have not been well-articulated and thoroughly tested So it is not surprising that there is difficulty in articulating the requirements for command environments that can deliver the underpinning to support those concepts Understanding and applying human science to ACE and other military systems is critical to the exploitation of technology and to ________________________________________________________________________ 89 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ the delivery of overall military capability Human science is the means for transforming the components of a command environment into effective military command THE SCOPE OF HUMAN DISCIPLINES Many disciplines contribute to better understanding human behaviour in a command environment Many disciplines can contribute knowledge to be employed in creating more effective systems and environments These disciplines include psychology ergonomics human factors cognitive science neuroscience biology archaeology philosophy history literature sociology anthropology and more Some are hard science in the sense that they use rigorous methods such as laboratory-based experimentation and mathematical analysis Others are softer using methods such as field studies and ethnography In each case there must be a methodical and controlled approach to knowledge We shall use the term human knowledge base to describe the body of knowledge that offers relevant observations and understanding that relate to human performance in the command environment The skills and methods required to apply human knowledge base is a discipline in itself We shall use terms such as human factors integration human systems integration and human factors engineering to refer to the application of such knowledge The first term is in common use in the United Kingdom and the latter two in the United States Human behaviour processes especially those used in complex environments are not well understood Some experts contribute perspectives as they describe system thinking complex adaptive systems and socio-technical systems It is understood that humans are strongly affected by influences external to the immediate system in which they are working Influences include cultural attitudes expectations motivations and values In some cases they are not taken sufficiently into account A system-of-systems approach will deliver a more reliable assessment of overall performance by factoring in the broader influences which determine human 90 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS behaviour To do so necessarily calls upon knowledge from a broader range of human disciplines Operational analysis techniques are being developed to carry out integration at this level and the human factor will be central to this The ACE panel finds that there is a critical need for the development of more advanced means of applying the human knowledge base to the design of future advanced command environments SPECIFIC AREAS TO BE ADDRESSED The panel has identified that there is insufficient application of human factors in the development of military command capability There are research findings in areas such as human decision-making remote and co-located team-working cultural determinants of behaviour intuitive and analytical thinking the use of information and knowledge in developing understanding However the findings from such studies need to be applied in the context of military capabilities and used to inform doctrine organisation process and technology application The ACE panel suggests that there are several ways in which this can be done more effectively Experimentation to understand human military practitioner requirements for ACE using new technologies in display communications capability visualization special effects to replace iconography and simulation tools Experimentation to assess the impact on individuals and teams of potential ACE or components of ACE Full utilization of both human discipline specialists and human factors engineers throughout the ACE lifecycle from capability analysis to termination Human discipline specialists will have a deep knowledge of areas such as cognition sociology problem solving decision making and team building Human factors engineers will have experience in the practice of incorporating knowledge about human behaviour into the systems engineering process ________________________________________________________________________ 91 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ Modelling human cognition and behaviour to develop technologies to support own command behaviours and to help in the analysis of opponent behaviour Development of metrics language and taxonomy to assist in multi-disciplinary collaboration in a human-centric systems approach to command environments and Early engagement of stakeholders especially the future commanders in the design process The explorations proposed in the list above can only be conducted with substantive military involvement Indeed the panel believes that outside contractors and universities are generally unable to do this work in a way that sufficiently involves the military Consequently we believe that a concentrated programme needs to be created by the two nations In the next section we discuss two organisations within the MoD and the DoD that have demonstrated capability in this area JFCOM AND NITEWORKS Two leading stakeholders in the area of developing advanced command techniques and environments are the U S Joint Forces Command JFCOM Joint Futures Laboratory JFL and the UK NITEworks Network Integration Test and Experimentation Works The JFL conducts transformational experimentation locally or globally through live or virtual means The JFL facilities serve as the hub for the Headquarters of the Combined Joint Forces CommandFuture a community of joint and service headquarters linked through common Collaborative Information Environment tools networks modelling and simulation federations and methodologies to integrate and synergize joint experimentation The JFL and the Distributed Continuous Experimentation Environment conduct continuous collaborative joint experimentation to accelerate solution sets to current warfighter challenges develop potential solutions and opportunities for future warfighting and inform development of the Joint Force Headquarters of the future JFCOM also works with the 92 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA to develop transformational technologies to enhance the capability of commanders and staffs to collaboratively plan and conduct effectsbased campaigns NITEworks is an experimental environment that allows the UK Ministry of Defence to assess the benefits of Network Enabled Capability NEC and the options for its effective and timely delivery NITEworks is a partnership between the Ministry of Defence and the defence industry rather than a traditional and more formal customer supplier relationship This unique arrangement allows NITEworks to draw on the widest possible range of specialist skills information and facilities in addressing problems set by the Ministry of Defence In brief NITEworks conducts activities such as warfighting experiments including manipulation experiments and empirical studies tests and visualisations Through NITEworks various industry capabilities are accessible including training simulators test and evaluation facilities the Battlespace Transformation Centre and the Battlespace Management Environment The JFCOM Joint Futures Laboratory and NITEworks are not the only candidate organisations that are qualified to be involved in this kind of experimentation Appendix E lists other organisations in the United States and abroad EXPLORING COMMAND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZATIONAL AGILITY Anticipating our recommendation for joint experimentation between JFCOM JFL and NITEworks this section explores a concrete example of the kind of exploration that would be valuable It focuses on the dimensions and techniques that would enable a command environment support system Experimentation the development of high level operational analysis and the involvement of multiple stakeholders are already well in evidence JFCOM and NITEworks and these activities could ________________________________________________________________________ 93 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ be built upon effectively Table 1 below provides an example of some of the concerns and potential solutions that could be assessed through the application of human science to ACE concepts Table 1 A U S -UK Common Goal DELIVERING AGILITY THROUGH THE COMMAND ENVIRONMENT in the UK's Joint Doctrine Concepts Centre definition this includes flexibility adaptability responsiveness robustness Both the United Kingdom and the United States wish to increase military agility at all levels and scales Command will play a key part in achieving this Obstructions to agility Potential sources for enhancing agility o Compartmentalisation of process and o Re-configurability of ACE to look inwards or information for security reasons o Necessity to integrate new people with different cultures for the purposes of effects based and coalition operations o Separation of decision makers and warfighters through reach back o Static structures stove-piped information environments outwards to work as a whole or splinter into groups and individuals to integrate back into a team This will support different command styles and doctrine the ability to deal with both micro and macro threats and the movement of people tasks and information across different environments o Concept of operations to allow simultaneous collaboration compartmentalisation o Rapid processes for responding to lessons learned o Lack of exploitation of lessons learned o Long design and modification cycles for command environments o Locked-in thinking arising from expectations dependency on process rulebased behaviour and inappropriate simplification of complex situations organisational learning technology to assist in rapid learning self-learning technology e g modelling o Involvement of all stakeholders including suppliers in early activities to understand requirements o Visualisation and thinking aids to help challenge assumptions encourage lateral thinking support broad and deep understanding of a situation o Cultural diversity o Over-dependency on technology impoverishment of human understanding through de-skilling and removal from detail misunderstanding of application functionality and mode status e g modelling tools o Erosion of human perception understanding - through reducing the communication bandwidth using IT not face to face and trying to pump more information through this reduced bandwidth o Effects of accountability and global visibility o More effective modelling simulation and visualisation to match cognitive styles of commanders analysts and planners o Tools organisation processes to assist in rapid thinking e g brainstorming tools o Policy for face to face communication o Training organisation tools for providing audit trail of discussions and decisions 94 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Collaborative Experimentation The United States and the United Kingdom should develop a cooperative programme to collaborate on the physical design aspects internal functionality and tools and other human factors aspects related to optimizing future command decision environments The purpose of such efforts would be to spotlight the importance of optimizing decision environments at different levels of command and to formalize opportunities for commands to draw from the technologies and human factors work already being done in battle and futures labs working in these areas across the respective governments and in industry As a first step we recommend a trial link between U S and UK facilities such as NITEworks and the JFCOM JFL and possibly other UK U S military organisations see Appendix E for additional organisations This would host an initial set of experiments in the area of advanced command environments to assess the effectiveness of alternative architectures and components and supporting future command modalities Specific issues to be explored are discussed in earlier sections This experimentation should develop a model for more expanded collaboration on this topic including Provision of a comprehensive method including a definition of the scope of the operational context we need to address in order to assess command functions Establishment of measures and metrics for the output of ACE and the performance of elements within them such as human command performance or the extent to which a technology supports or hinders specific human performance Develop specifications and prototype requirements for ACE and their components in order to help define future research needs and to ________________________________________________________________________ 95 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ frame the findings in terminology meaningful to both the militaries and supply industries and Test and evaluate the most relevant technologies such as - Display technologies to support partially shared information environments - Special effects as a visual tool to enhance situational awareness - Technologies to enhance remote collaboration - Large scale media management systems - Human-in-the-loop modelling using expert judgement to temper complex computation - Tools and methods for enhancing lateral and intuitive thinking - Training and education techniques for cultural understanding - System interfaces to intuitive emotional and social dimensions of human cognition - Generic agile planning aids and - Large scale modelling and simulation for wargaming An important goal should be to identify which aspects of the command environment are generic and which are context-dependent e g dependent on particular scenarios This can be achieved by using three or more vignettes or scenarios representing different extremes of key variables A baseline should be established with existing conditions e g a single commander operating hierarchically with existing command information systems using current doctrine for group decision making and course of action analysis 96 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS 2 Conference The programme should also sponsor a conference with a call for papers to address the broad range of topics including behavioural modelling of specific populations individual person modelling methods for characterising individual members of a hypothetical command team ergonomics colour light sound etc These ideas should be evaluated and either dismissed or adopted as part of a broader command environment toolset after experimentation It will be important to have key high-level stakeholder buy-in from the start and a commitment and mechanism to act on the outcomes There will be important issues about how to provide resources for such a study what timetable is feasible given existing programmes who would have ownership of such an over-arching initiative and what needs to be in place before such experimentation can take place SUMMARY As part of the terms of reference for the working party each panel was tasked to develop a critical disruptive and enabling technology list for their topic The ACE panel submits the following list of technologies with potential to meet the requirements for advanced command environments listed above Advanced Displays Visualizations and the Use of Special Effects Advanced and Collaborative Networks Collaboration Technologies and Network Protection Advanced Computing and Communications Advanced Knowledge Management End-to-end Media and Info Management Virtual Training Advanced Modelling Simulation Gaming Demonstration and Experimentation ________________________________________________________________________ 97 CHAPTER 5 __________________________________________________________________ Human Performance Psychological Factors and Behaviours Autonomous and Self-Organizing Networks Analysis Tools and Technologies COTS Including Wireless Advances and Vulnerability Mitigation Energy Sources and Management High Capacity Communications Advanced Encryption Public Key Infrastructure and Identity Concepts Advanced Information Assurance Advanced Collaboration Concepts Smart Robots Micromachines Advanced Materials and Designs and Compact Climate and Instrument Controls The panel believes that there is great value in joint experimentation between the two nations' militaries The result of this initial activity should then be evaluated to determine if a long term relationship can be achieved 98 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE CHAPTER 6 PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE INTRODUCTION This report is the U S and UK contribution to a joint UK U S study of Persistent Surveillance PS for defence applications The two teams met both separately and together and as a result followed both individual and complementary threads The UK team focused on the underlying technologies and the programme view required to achieving PS while the U S group considered the definitional organisational and architectural systems issues in depth This reflects the different approaches of the United States and the United Kingdom i e the United States has extensive investment in PS technologies but requires effort on how to better exploit the outputs from these The UK MoD has recently initiated a major coordinated programme in PS DABINETT while requiring a clearer vision of which emerging technologies require defence specific investment The U S DoD and intelligence communities have undertaken a series of activities to discuss and analyze the PS attributes and definitions Although U S members have not investigated the full extent of U S DoD and intelligence community activities in this area we are not aware of a formal U S programme defined for persistent surveillance Despite near-universal enthusiasm for next-generation persistent surveillance assets there is remarkably little informed discussion of what constitutes persistence and why we want it We believe that increasingly targets of interest will require us to go beyond the current norm of point or sweeping type episodic surveillance Enhancing the ability to track lower signature objects of interest including persons and related entities and better link them to specific threat activities will require a focused effort across the full spectrum of collection analysis mission and information management and customer interaction Persistence is a relative construct and a sensing system may be said to be sufficiently persistent if we can capture and recreate with sufficient fidelity the ________________________________________________________________________ 99 CHAPTER 6 __________________________________________________________________ relevant temporal characteristics of the target Thus persistent surveillance is most important if and only if we are interested in some temporal characteristic s of the target Specifically we are interested in analyzing the activity of the target To appreciate the texture of an activity we must observe systematically i e sample the target entities as well as objects at a rate dictated by the activity not by the sensor sensor system or platform s The role of surveillance - in the troika of Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR - is to deny the adversary any opportunity to act unobserved Just as intelligence aspires to omniscience surveillance aspires to be omni-present with virtual dwelling staring resolution and other performance attributes that make such persistence more powerful and differentiated from current and past ISR Current trends also require that such PS also be able to support a wide variety of weapons delivery scenarios integral to the conduct of such surveillance The context for PS is that adversaries increasingly are non-state players with many individual actors and entities globally distributed with low signatures Existing UK and U S collection capabilities are platform based Increasingly as we align the information from different systems and phenomenologies there will be significant implications for mission management information management processing analysis and archiving and network enablement Interestingly it is via these features of PS that backtracking of targets or from events particularly those targets hiding in plain sight in order to facilitate retrack or for forensic benefits onto other like or related targets is facilitated As we achieve improvements in PS it is envisaged that new interfaces will be required that will leverage traditional defence as well as homeland-security and law enforcement capabilities This PS study utilised the knowledge of subject experts plus solicited input from relevant experts when any capability gap was apparent We must sense differently and more effectively and we must process and exploit that sensing with greater skill and with much improved results This chapter summarises the key findings and the supporting evidence The panel took the following approach 100 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE twenty-nine defence critical technologies for PS were identified not defined in this report but available on request These were categorised into Front-end Sensors Back-end Capabilities and Interconnectivity Fabric Three of these technology areas identified below were selected as high priority The panel assumed the following caveats space-based sensors are addressed in existing collaborations and were therefore not considered in this study However the output from these sensors was considered and we believe that capable space sources are critical to our evolution of a comprehensive PS programme This chapter focuses less on the technologies of PS per se and more on how to think about PS and for defining a way forward in PS The technologies for PS are many and varied in the context of all domain legacy and to-be penetrating and standoff front-end tasking mission control and management sensors and platforms verses back-ends processing exploitation analysis story finding reporting storytelling and target development non-weaponized and weaponized ISR etc ________________________________________________________________________ 101 CHAPTER 6 __________________________________________________________________ DISCUSSION The subject of the panel PS is an emerging concept within U S and UK defence operations and this is reflected in the numerous definitions available The main approach adopted by the UK team was to divide the area into three categories i e Front-end Sensors Back-end Capabilities and the Interconnectivity Fabric The aim was to identify a subset of key technologies from these three categories that would directly benefit from focused defence investment architecture development system-of-systems engineering of PS integration and enhanced collaborative efforts between the United States and the United Kingdom and other international coalition or allied partners There is also a broader set of issues related to enabling coalition PS including security management biasing toward information sharing while simultaneously protecting sources and methods and integration into a network enabled information environment co-shared by both operational and intelligence actors A significant aspect of the shift towards persons entity and activity surveillance is the increased need for data forensics modelling and in-depth research based analysis of the subject behaviour Improved analysis and modelling may lead to improvements in our ability to accurately predict activities Such modelling and analysis needs to be taken into account as the United States and the United Kingdom define the future of PS architectures Said another way its not just what the sensor brings to you it's also what you bring to the sensor The following sections first expand on the concept of PS and its application followed by an outline of the analysis for each of the three key technologies identified in the summary 102 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE Defining Persistent Surveillance Today there are many definitions of PS most of which we have analyzed For the purposes of this report we have come up with our own definition to wit The systematic and integrated management of collection processing and customer collaboration for assured monitoring of all classes of threat entities activities and environments in physical aural or cyber space with sufficient frequency accuracy resolution precision spectral diversity spatial extent spatial and sensing diversity and other enhanced temporal and other performance attributes in order to obtain the desired adversary information even in the presence of deception In this definition there is a desired objective ability to observe with sufficient frequency and precision that the target will not be able to move change or function without notice Understanding and quantifying the temporal characteristics of an intelligence target requires persistence Therefore we are interested in persistent intelligence collection because there are a wide variety of defence and intelligence problems for which the temporal dimensions are important Among the relevant parameters of persistent systems are Temporal parameters--e g sample rate sampling duration or epoch time on target and response time time to target Geo-Spatial parameters--e g area covered field of regard and area of coverage field of view or ground-sampled area and overall resolution Spectral parameters--e g frequency bands available and sample frequency spectral region of view and ________________________________________________________________________ 103 CHAPTER 6 __________________________________________________________________ Adaptability--e g actively monitors and adjusts the sensing and processing to insure the capabilities are optimized for the situation and entities Of pertinence to the summary recommendation is that persistent collection systems beg for automated processing--we recognize the impact of all the man-hours needed for staring at a target for long periods with nothing happening most of the time - without machine enabled exploitation Even if we were willing to spare the manpower the vigilance literature guarantees that when the extremely rare event for which we are watching happens we frequently miss it Recognize that the humans need to be in the loop to drive the automated processing and react to the discovered information PS in Network Enabled Capabilities and Network Centric Warfare From the dialogue between the U S and UK teams it was agreed that while U S Network Centric Warfare NCW and UK Network Enabled Capabilities NEC are different they converge in the area of the Common Operating Picture COP derived from PS In addition commitments for future demands on collaborative operations between the United Kingdom and the United States require a COP It was thought by our joint review of PS that the NCW and NEC concepts and programmes will become better aligned with the NCW programmes leaning more towards the acceptance of the UK view that PS can only be enabled by the web character of the networks and future trends in establishing the various layers of the global grid It was agreed that space sensors would not be considered as part of this study for future collaborations since there are currently other Memorandums of Understanding and collaborations in this area However information and data that is collected from space sensors were considered in this study as part of the back-end capability and interconnectivity fabric considerations 104 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE IDENTIFIED TECHNOLOGIES The UK PS panel has identified their own list of technologies that it considered were defence critical technologies not included in this report These technologies were categorised into three broad areas These were 1 Front-end Sensors 2 Interconnectivity Fabric and 3 Back-end Capabilities Of these technologies it was decided that three in particular should be proposed as a top priority for further MoD and DoD consideration It should be noted that all three were analysed in the context of the Three-Block War Scenario as a grounding exercise These three are detailed below Integrated Sensing - Physical and Computer Definition The processes and technologies for persistently monitoring the full spectrum of Information and Communication Technologies ICT ISR activity within a selected area or within a range of selected networks and nodes of interest Includes target development collection management and sensor application and management aspects of PS as well as PS connections to weapons and weapons battle damage assessment combat effectiveness assessment Why this technology is considered defence critical Unlike other technologies adversaries will likely be aware of many of our ICT ISR technologies and they might have the means to exploit these PS modes for an asymmetric advantage or subject them to denial and deception There is a need to integrate across the sensing domain with traditional geographic-based sensors as part of the COP As well as monitoring the enemy sensing can be used to monitor friendly forces It has specific application in the Three-Block War which assumes an implicit asymmetric threat How will operations change using this technology Operations will indeed change within a PS enabled framework In addition to the physical world improvements driven by PS ________________________________________________________________________ 105 CHAPTER 6 __________________________________________________________________ cyberspace - both Signal Intelligence and Information Warfare -will be an important element of the PS framework Observation To scope conceive design and model a joint U S -UK study team Horizontal Knowledge Integration Definition To achieve a shared universal COP comprehensive and timely situational awareness and integration of tasking collection analysis and customer coordination is needed All the attributes which were defined during the U S joint Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Assistant Deputy of Central Intelligence Collection horizontal integration efforts are involved Why this technology is considered defence critical Ideally different users want their own smart pool of information that is extracted from all the data gathered from sensors This is because different users require different interpretations of the data depending on their requirements How will operations change using this technology This technology provides greater detail and confidence increased precision and can reduce fratricides Observation The United States and the United Kingdom need to establish common standards and interoperability e g on sensor formats and meta-data We need to move towards service-oriented warfare and there is a need to link high level NEC NCW activity Both human and technical aspects must be considered to enable this Establish goals to drive this activity Software Agents Definition Any software or tools which are part of making PS work as a differentiated form of ISR Agents are part of a computing and IT environment which is capable of flexible autonomous action 106 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE in a dynamic unpredictable and complex target environment They enable information fusion knowledge management and back-end integration Why this technology is considered defence critical Software agents are the key elements for large scale PS They are applicable at each level of PS Apply to both the back and the front end Need for collaboration on putting together the infrastructure that enables software agents to be exploited Software agents need to be developed for military purposes to make them more - Robust - Fault-tolerant - Address speed and tempo of defence arena and - Scalable This technology is also cross-cutting across the other critical technology panels For example it can be applied to manage distributed processes in HPC and intelligent management of resources in large-scale sensor networks including power management They have also already been adapted to support advanced command and control interfaces How will operations change using this technology There is a strong military advantage in bringing all the software agent streams together from across the Atlantic A specific example for the application of software agents in persistent surveillance would be in long dwell monitoring including covert surveillance Agents will increase the rate at which information can be matched and reduce the time taken to back-trawl through data Efficiency in the human loop can also be improved ________________________________________________________________________ 107 CHAPTER 6 __________________________________________________________________ Observation Given that the United Kingdom has a PS programme DABINETT there is an opportunity for a joint UK-U S study for defence requirements Activity in this area could be improved with increased emphasis This effort could align activities and better leverage respective strengths A joint U S -UK study would avoid any wasted effort and potentially save ourselves from running down the same dead end streets RECOMMENDATIONS The UK and U S Persistent Surveillance panels therefore make the following specific recommendations 1 Establish a U S Persistent Surveillance Effort Office or Programme Counterpart to DABINETT The U S Office Director National Intelligence ODNI and the Secretary of Defense should consider creating a programme or focused PS effort or office to define build and integrate U S PS capabilities The establishment of such a focused effort jointly at the level of the ODNI and DoD Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence would provide a natural office staff for working PS on a broadly based context and for transatlantic collaboration and coordination of U S and UK as well as other PS related programmes This U S PS office would then be the natural interface point between the U S efforts and the UK DABINETT programme The United States should review the UK DABINETT as a potential framework for establishing its counterpart The United Kingdom has put a considerable amount of sophisticated staff energy into framing their DABINETT focus on PS and the United States should close with the MoD subject to their concurrence to use the UK thinking as a potential reference model 108 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE 2 Establish a High Level Joint UK U S Coordination Group for Addressing Persistent Surveillance The United States and United Kingdom should consider establishing a high level Joint Coordination Group on PS to work the TransAtlantic aspects of PS including doctrine concepts sensors architecture analysis processing information management interoperability network enablement customer support security export control acquisition systems engineering etc issues SUMMARY The working party was asked to identify critical defence technologies The Persistent Surveillance panel submits the following list of critical technologies in this area Advanced Sensors and Sensor Collection Management New Concepts for Tagging Tracking and Locating High Performance and Quantum Computing Advanced High Capacity Communications Information Management and Analysis Technologies Alignment of Surveillance with Weapons Applications Stealth Counter-Stealth and Signature Reduction Management Low Power Consumption Counter Improvised Explosive Devices Attributes Explosive Detection Autonomous Self-Organising Networks Advanced Materials Engines Energy Management Modelling and Simulation Space and Satellite Remote Sensing and Cost Reduction Virtual Training Data and Network Protection and Survivability ________________________________________________________________________ 109 CHAPTER 6 __________________________________________________________________ Nanotechnologies Robotics and Micro-machines and related control Antennas Apertures Data Fusion and Correlation Networks Software Agents Processing and Exploitation Geolocation Navigation Responsive Space Air and Ground Systems and related Target Access Means Hypersonics EMP HPM and IO Protection Defences chemical biological radiological and nuclear explosive WMD Detectors Pointing and Tracking Data Warehousing and Storage Collaboration Technologies Many of the same technologies in ACE Persistent Surveillance Total Systems Architecture Development of a common data dictionary of sensor data formats and associated meta-data formats for full interoperability and Context filters and compression 110 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ CONCLUSIONS CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS THE VALUE OF WORKING JOINTLY This joint DSB DSAB effort in its own small way echoes the value and power of U S and U K collaboration that has existed over modern time Our history together given our respective world views resource bases assessment of mutual critical interests application of policies technologies and operations and talents of our peoples proves again that there is great synergy and benefit to be derived from working together on important problems Separated by an ocean and perhaps by a common language this project involving collaboration on five major and differing major defence technology areas reaffirmed the benefits and importance of working together This study was ambitious in terms of its breadth and scope of topics We picked both traditional and new topics some of which had relationships to one another We depended on small teams to carry the major burden of detailed problem definition collaboration analysis and the formation of conclusions Working the five task areas by five different teams using five different work styles resulted in differing approaches problems and even frustrations related to bridging the distance maintaining momentum and in the mutual collaboration processes aided by video teleconference teleconference electronic mail as well as some face to face meetings The observations and lessons learned from these differing approaches are discussed below PROCESS Our five topics of study included two broad high level topics and three focused technology topics As each of the panels proceeded there was cross-fertilization on processes and procedures but sometimes less on technical content In the case of the three focused technology topics the UK and U S panels operated independently - to a great degree ________________________________________________________________________ 111 CHAPTER 7 __________________________________________________________________ The chairs concluded that we selected more parallel efforts than was optimal The individual panels were small and in some cases would have benefited by being larger The value of multi-national collaboration comes from engagement of individuals who bring different perspectives on mission on technology on the industrial base available to a nation and on the assumptions that flow from the scale of the technology efforts contemplated Larger panels would have brought a richer perspective and would have provided for richer technology detail Each panel grappled early on with finding common ground between the members from the two nations And in the end it was only for the broad topic panels that common ground was established In the three focused technology areas the panels from the two nations did not meet face to face and agreed to pursue their topics independently and then to integrate and harmonize their results at the end of the study The process is reflected in the final written product One impediment for the U S members could have been the export control - International Traffic in Arms Regulation ITAR However the lawyers at DoD provided a release from the constraints of technology information release to the members of this working party Although most of the U S members of the working party were for the most part from U S industry and still felt constrained by their previous corporate ITAR histories related to these specific subjects Therefore they did not make optimum use of forward leaning posture which the ITAR staff provided for this project In the two broader - closer to the mission - topics the panels directly grappled with finding common ground This was complicated by differences in approach to the mission by the two nations' militaries and intelligence communities Different views of mission lead to different views on technology needs One panel the Advanced Command Environments panel made mutual exchange visits The entire panel held meetings in both countries receiving briefings from military organizations including from the U S Joint Forces Command and the U K NITEworks Panel members 112 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ CONCLUSIONS interactively engaged with briefers and with each other Based on those meetings the Advanced Command Environments panel did find a common ground This experience is discussed in the opening of their chapter Once they had come to better understand each other's perspectives they developed a joint product The U S members of the Persistent Surveillance panel visited the UK MoD headquarters and took briefings but did not visit individual organization locations in the UK Face to face meetings in which they could vigorously debate issues such as how persistent surveillance differs from traditional surveillance formed a basis for their consensus One reason why the face to face meetings are important is that the U S and UK styles of interaction are different U S members were more animated and probing in style of interaction - brash some may say - than the UK members were more reserved - more actively seeking consensus some may say But when the individuals from the two nations had the opportunity to meet face to face they forged a compatible view and the final product benefited from the face to face visits The working parties utilized teleconference video-conferencing virtual networked working areas and electronic mail exchange The technology supported information sharing and general discussion albeit awkwardly and unreliably when dealing with live images However the technology support available to the working party was not - by itself - effective in creating genuinely integrated teams The tools that we used were not secure Future DSB DSAC collaboration at least for some topics may require secure interchange support tools There was another element that influenced the interaction of members from both countries The DSAC traditionally focuses more on technology The DSB takes the view that it must focus on the needs of clients within the DoD their objectives and their policy and budget context Therefore a DSB working party routinely focuses on the objectives and constraints of the specific sponsors of the working party members of the DoD leadership who pose the issue being addressed The DSB is concerned with the health of the industrial ________________________________________________________________________ 113 CHAPTER 7 __________________________________________________________________ base lessons learned from military operations policy constraints the characteristics of future missions and resource allocation Technology alone is rarely the focus of a DSB study In a visit to the United States the DSAC leadership found this wider scope interesting and one reason for the creation of this joint working party is that the DSAC leadership wanted to experience working on a problem using the approach of the DSB So one objective for this study was to expose DSAC and DSB members to each other's style in the context of grappling with real and specific problems The working party certainly succeeded in exposing panel members with two styles of operation particularly the panel members that dealt with the two broad topics It remains to be seen if the DSAC will adapt its operation in any way as a result of the experience with this working party RECOMMENDATIONS Recommendations from the five specific areas of study are included at the end of each chapter and summarised in the table in the Executive Summary The three co-chairs have two further recommendations relating to the benefits of continuing the relationship which has now been established between DSAC and DSB through future collaboration and relating to common concerns on the state of the pipeline for future defence scientists and engineers in the United States and the United Kingdom Recommendation 1 Based on our positive experience the three co-chairs of this working party recommend that the DSAC and DSB collaborate further on joint studies The topic of each future study should be constrained explored in depth and defined to be in areas in which there are different perspectives in the two nations along dimensions important to the chosen topic Early working party meetings should 114 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ CONCLUSIONS be in person and should involve briefings by appropriate organizations from both sides Recommendation 2 During working party discussions plenary sessions and teleconferences between the co-chairs the issue of the shortage of U S and UK nationals opting to take undergraduate and higher degrees in science engineering and technology was raised repeatedly At a time when potential adversaries have access to high levels of technology often at low cost and when the rapidly growing economies of the east such as China and India are developing advanced and highly competitive industries in areas such as information and communication technologies and electronics the United States and the United Kingdom are both experiencing a decline in the number of citizen graduates able to support our defence research programmes and defence-critical industries We recommend that the MoD and DoD jointly consider ways to mitigate this problem and recruit more of our brightest young scientists and engineers into defence research Collaborative programmes involving opportunities to train at universities in both the United States and the United Kingdom and to work at U S and UK laboratories is one way to emphasise both the importance of and the excitement and challenges offered by working in this area in the 21st Century ________________________________________________________________________ 115 CHAPTER 7 __________________________________________________________________ This page intentionally left blank 116 _______________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________ TERMS OF REFERENCE APPENDIX A TERMS OF REFERENCE ________________________________________________________________________ 117 APPENDIX A__________________________________________________________________ This page intentionally left blank 118 _______________________________________________________________________ April 21 2004 MEMORANDUM FOR CHAIRPERSONS U S DEFENSE SCIENCEBOARD UK DEFENCE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COUNCIL SUBJECT Terms of Reference-Identifying and SustainingU S Departmentof Defense UKMinistry of DefenceDefenseCritical Technologies Study Technologyplays a vital role in the successof U S and UK armedforces The developmentof useful technologyarisesfrom different sources Governmentmay itself developunique technologyfor which thereis no evidentcommercialuse Governmentmay provide the initial impetusto enableindustry to take over future development or Governmentmay chooseto adapttechnologydevelopedsolely in the marketplace None of thesesources alone is capableof satisfyingthe needfor defensetechnology Governmentscan not afford to duplicatemarket-driventechnologydevelopment while the marketplacedoesnot alwaysdeveloptechnologywhich fulfills U S DoD or UK MoD niche needsor in the requiredtime frame For example thereis a requirementfor a small numberof radiationhardenedintegratedcircuit chips for some missionsbut there is no commercialmarketto fulfill this need High Performance Computing HPC representsanothertechnologyin which military needsare not fully met As industry commits to massivelyparallel machinesthereexist severalcomputing domainsthat are resistantto this technologicalapproach Quantumcomputingmay hold the key to future military HPC needsbut this unproventechnologyis still several years if not decadesaway The Study will developa methodologyto identify uniquedefensetechnologies aswell as commercially developedtechnologiesneedingaugmentationto fulfill defense niche areas and then apply the methodologyto developa list of defensecritical technologies The Study shouldfocus its effort on high leverage differentiatedand transformationaltechnologies The Studymay then usethis list of defensecritical technologiesto further assessthe tools availableto the U S DoD or UK MoD to developits critical technologyneeds Someof the considerationsthe Study should examineinclude mechanismsto developnichesin pre-existingtechnologies foster new technologyuntil the commercialmarketplacetakesover or developtechnologywithout any expectationof commercialdevelopment the analysisshouldinclude a review of the applicableacquisition businesscase Finally the Study shouldconsiderthe impact of technologydevelopmentin other countriesand the implications that this may have on Angio-U S unique needs The Study will specifically addressU S DoD and UK MoD technologicalneeds in the following areas power systems HPC materials including energetic structural and functional advancedmicro- andopto-electronics communicationsystems security and information assurance vaccinesandpharmaceuticals andhumanfactors The Study shouldassessrelevanttechnologiesand the meansof transferringthem to the defensearenausing the abovemethodology This Study will operateunderan exchangeof letters The DefenseScience Board and DefenceScientific Advisory Council will work in parallel comparing interim findings and working togetherto producea unique UNCLASSIFIED report The UK part of the Study will be sponsoredby the UK MoD Scienceand TechnologyDirector and chairedby Dr Julia King The Executive Secretaryand UK Point of Contactwill be Dr AlexanderChurchill The U S part of the Study will be co-sponsoredby me as the acting Under Secretaryof Defense Acquisition Technologyand Logistics and the Director Defense Researchand Engineering Admiral William Studemanand Dr Anita Joneswill serveas Study Co-Chairpersons Mr John Grosh will serveas the Executive Secretaryand CommanderDavid Waugh will serveas the DefenseScienceBoard Secretariat Representati ve k aJ ichael W nne cting Unde Secretaryof Defense Acquisition Technologyand Logisitics Mike Markin Science TechnologyDirector ________________________________________________ WORKING PARTY U S MEMBERSHIP APPENDIX B WORKING PARTY U S MEMBERSHIP CO-CHAIRS Dr Anita Jones ADM Bill Studeman USN Ret University of Virginia Private Consultant WORKING PARTY MEMBERS ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS PANEL Mr Rocky Rocconova Chair Northrop Grumman Technology Ventures Mr Chuck Benson RTA Inc Dr Wayne Zachary CHI Systems Mr David Jakubek DoD Liaison POWER MANAGEMENT FOR SMALL DISTRIBUTED NETWORKED SENSORS PANEL Dr Larry Dubois Chair SRI International Dr Robert Nowak Private Consultant Dr Brad Ringeisen DoD Liaison HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING PANEL Mr Steve Wallach Chair Centerpoint Ventures Professor Bill Dally Stanford University Dr John Gilbert University of California Santa Barbara Dr Peter Kogge University of Notre Dame Dr Bob Lucas University of Southern California Information Sciences Institute Mr John Grosh DoD Liaison ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS PANEL Dr David Whelan Chair The Boeing Company Dr Dennis Buss Texas Instruments Dr Matt Ganz HRL Laboratories LLC ________________________________________________________________________ 119 APPENDIX B__________________________________________________________________ Mr Zach Lemnios Dr David Tennenhouse Dr Chuck Byvik MIT LL Intel DoD Liaison PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE PANEL Mr Jeff Harris Chair Lockheed Martin Dr Edward Gerry The Boeing Company Mr Lee Hammarstrom Pennsylvania State University Mr Rich Haver Northrop Grumman Mr Leo Hazelwood SAIC Dr Joe Markowitz Private Consultant Mr Robert Gold DoD Liaison EXECUTIVE SECRETARY Mr John Grosh ODUSD S T DSB REPRESENTATIVE CDR Cliff Phillips USN LtCol Dave Robertson USAF STAFF Dr Evelyn Dahm Ms Julie Evans Strategic Analysis Inc Strategic Analysis Inc 120 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ BRIEFINGS RECEIVED BY THE PANELS APPENDIX C BRIEFINGS RECEIVED BY THE PANELS U S ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS PANEL Dr Charles Holland and Mr Sonny Maynard OSD Trusted Foundry Discussion Ms Joan Pierre DTRA Dr John Zopler DARPA MTO RDD DARPA Component Technology Briefing Mr Warren Snapp Boeing DARPA Design Technology Programs Address Emerging Challenges to DoD System on Chips FPGA Discussion of Critical Electronic Components Multi-level Coalition Functionality Dr Matt Goodman Dr Pete Rustan NRO COL Tim Gibson USA DARPA ATO Mr Rick Thompson BAE Systems Future Advances in High Performance Silicon Essential for DoD to Maintain Technological Superiority Mr Roger Van Art Jazz Semiconductor Commercial Pure Play Semiconductor Foundry Business Models Serving Aerospace Defence Mr Joe Jensen HRL Mixed-signal electronics Dr David Chow HRL High-performance RF electronics Mr Randy Isaac IBM Leveraging Commercial Silicon Foundries for Government Needs Dr Paul Monticciolo MIT LL High-Performance FPGAs in DoD Systems Dr Sonny Maynard Discussion Dr George Valley Aerospace Corporation Photonic Analogue-to-Digital Converters Fundamental and Practical Limits Lt Col Chris Warwick USAF OUSD IP Defence Industrial Base ________________________________________________________________________ 121 APPENDIX C__________________________________________________________________ Dr Barry Gilbert Mayo Clinic Dr Eliot Cohen EBCO Technology Advising Inc Can the U S Military and agency communities execute their long-term mission without on shore access to advanced electronic technologies Accelerating the Insertion Of Electronic Component Technology Into DoD Systems Mr Bob Walden Phenomenon Analogue-to-Digital Conversion in the Early Consulting 21st Century U S POWER MANAGEMENT AND SMALL NETWORK PANEL Mr Larry Schuette NRL Mr Dave Watters SRI International Dr Robert Poor Ember Dr Vjay Raghavan DARPA Dr Clark Nguyen DARPA MTO Dr Daniel Radack DARPA MTO Mr Jim Smith In-Q-Tel Mr Tim McVey Dr William Kaiser Dr Mani Srivastava and Dr Deborah Estrin Center for Embedded Networked Sensing Dr Paul Wright Near Earth RF Propagation Wireless Sensor Tags Smart Passive Devices for Remote Monitoring Ember Architecture Ad Hoc Wireless Sensor Networks Applications and Challenges Microscale power generation and Radio isotope micropower sources Thoughts on low power dissipation in electronics Private Company Landscape of Power Sources FBI Perspective Challenges in Energy-aware Embedded Networked Sensors Dr Bob Brodersen UC Berkeley MicroScale Systems supported entirely by Vibrational Energy Scavenging Low Power Architectures Mr George Methlie In-Q-Tel Power Sources for Distributed Systems Dr David Culler UC Berkeley Power issues in Wireless Sensor Nets Dr Jan Rabaey Berkeley Wireless Research Center BWRC Gigascale Systems Research Center GSRC Department of EECS University of California Berkeley Ultra low power wireless communications status challenges and opportunities 122 _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ BRIEFINGS RECEIVED BY THE PANELS U S HPC PANEL Mr Robert Graybill DARPA High Productivity Computing Systems Programme- Technology Update Visit to National Security Agency NSA CES HPC Arsenal- Tom Page CA Needs for HPC- John McNamara HPC for CA and Beyond- Mike Merrill SPDs- Baron Mills CES Perspective and ECI Briefing- Dave Muzzy Superconductivity study- John Pinkston HPC Research and Vendor InteractionCandace Culhane LUPS verses GUPS What does CES need in a Supercomputer - Boyd Livingston Emerging Areas for HPC at NSA- George Cotter Turmoil- Mike McGlynn Jeff Fritz KSP- Steve Pritchard or John Walker Visit to NRO Organisational Overview HPC related to R D U S ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENTS PANEL Mr Richard Lee Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Advanced Systems Concepts Mr Don Diggs Director C2 Policy OASD NII Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations ACTDs Showcasing Emerging Technology for Contributions to the GIG The Unified Command Structure UCS A Net-Centric Approach to Information Integration Decision and Global C2 Services JOINT ACE PANEL MEETING JDCC Farnborough Dstl NITEworks JFCOM visit Briefings from Mr Julian Starkey Wg CDR T Harris Briefings from Dr Graham Mathieson Human Systems Dstl Tour of the Battlespace Management Environment Alastair Prickett Briefings from Wg Cdr Mike Oldham and Mr Christopher Morris Hosted by General Thomas Matthews and ________________________________________________________________________ 123 APPENDIX C__________________________________________________________________ Mr David Morris Command Overview Transformation Multinational briefing Joint Center for Operational Analysis Lessons Learned briefing Standing Joint Forces Headquarters Core Element Tour of Joint Advanced Training Technology Lab Combined Joint Task Force Headquarters of the Future U S JFCOM DARPA Integrated Battle Command Joint Intelligence Operations Center - Iraq Joint Futures Lab tour Visit to VASCIC Northrop Grumman Hosted by Mr W Dennis Gallimore Demo of FLEXLAB- a full scale mock-up of the O3 deck command space of a Nimitz class carrier and if there is time a briefing from CVN 21 SPAWAR 124 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ RECENT U S HPC STUDIES APPENDIX D RECENT U S HPC STUDIES Four studies were initiated to analyze the state of HPC and make recommendations They are briefly described below Information Science and Technology ISAT STUDY 2001 - Technology Gaps and Bottlenecks A consequence of the industry focus on the desktop and commercial markets is missed technology opportunities and the lack of development of novel computer architectures The ISAT study of 2001 eloquently describes this picoseconds instruction verses year In the ISAT study it was shown that the increases in computer performance experienced in the last 20 years 52% year will decrease to 19% per year in the future 20 years This study states Modern designs have nearly exhausted the benefits of pipelining and conventional architectures are struggling to sustain even one instruction per cycle Without further innovations performance improvements will at best only match the rate of improvement due to further process technology innovations which is projected to continue at 19% per year With an increase of only 19% a year due to process technology innovations the potential performance gain due to novel architectures as in HPCS is greatly enhanced Again the study concludes Until now the differential between the 74% When accounting for increased transistor counts and faster transistor switching speeds the capability of microprocessor-scale integrated circuits has been improving at 74% year and 52% rates has resulted in only a factor of 30 of untapped performance potential However with only 19% per year projected in the future the differential is expected to increase to a factor of 30 000 by 2020 This quantity represents a tremendous opportunity for novel architectures to help bridge the performance gap and to enable future computer systems to solve increasingly complex and important problems ________________________________________________________________________ 125 APPENDIX D _________________________________________________________________ Integrated High-end Computing IHEC Study 2002 - High Performance Computing and National Security The IHEC study summarised in the report Ref High Performance Computing for the National Security Community July 2002 For the working groups involved with this report the situation is clear The mix of research development and engineering programs lack balance and coordination and is far below the critical mass required to sustain a robust technology industrial base in high-end supercomputing Requirements identified as critical by the national security user community such as improved memory subsystem performance and more productive programming environments will not be addressed The impact is that the national security community will be unable to solve critical computational problems required to maintain our technology lead for select but important classes of problem examined in the course of the study which included Weapons Development Program Comprehensive Air Vehicle Design Army Future Combat Systems Stealthy Ship Design Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Cryptanalysis Global Ocean Modelling and Operational Fleet Weather Forecasting Biological Sciences Intelligence Support Threat Systems M S Signals Image Proc Nuclear Effects Future Critical Problems Missile Defence 126 _______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ RECENT U S HPC STUDIES NRC STUDY 2004 - Getting Up To Speed The Future of Supercomputing The recently completed NRC study Ref Getting Up To Speed The Future of Supercomputing NRC November 2004 made the following observations Conclusion The supercomputing needs of the government will not be satisfied by systems developed to meet the demands of the broader commercial market The government has the primary responsibility for creating and maintaining the supercomputing technology and suppliers that will meet its specialized needs Conclusion Government must bear primary responsibility for maintaining the flow of resources that guarantees access to the custom systems it needs While an appropriate strategy will leverage developments in the commercial computing marketplace the government must routinely plan for developing what the commercial marketplace will not and it must budget the necessary funds Conclusion The government has lost opportunities for important advances in applications using supercomputing in supercomputing technology and in ensuring an adequate supply of supercomputing ecosystems in the future Instability in long-term funding and uncertainly in politics has been the main contributors to this loss FINDINGS Whilst technology is advancing all the time the results of these studies remain valid and relevant The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA has established the High Productivity Computing Systems HPCS program This is the only significant US government-sponsored advanced development HPC activity at this time HPCS is not a research program HPCS was initiated in 2002 in response to concerns that COTS systems were not adequate for meeting some very critical aspects of the Defence mission A primary focus of the HPCS program is on the Last Dimension of HPC User System Efficiency Productivity The goal is to create a new generation of systems ________________________________________________________________________ 127 APPENDIX D _________________________________________________________________ that double in productivity or value every 18-months rather than merely a doubling in unachieved peak performance While primarily a DARPA program HPCS has received significant support from other Defence agencies such as National Security Agency NSA and the National Reconnaissance Office as well as the Department of the Energy the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA and the NSF While DARPA is leading HPCS is truly a collaboration of all U S government agencies with a major stake in HPC All these studies from the DSB 2000 Study to the recent NRC study have made similar findings and recommendations The high performance needs of DoD mission agencies will not be satisfied by systems designed for the broader commercial marketplace A longterm program funding the development of HPC systems is required to ensure that the DoD mission agencies can meet their requirements This program must fund both near-term acquisitions and long-term research the existing DARPA activities need to be expanded accordingly High-End Computing Revitalization Task Force HECRTF Study 2004 The HECRTF report makes these recommendations Make high-end computing readily available to federal agencies that need it to fulfil their missions The overarching conclusion of the HECRTF is that action to revitalize high-end computing in the U S is needed now The federal government's historical success in motivating HEC R D the oversubscription of current HEC resources the scarcity of alternative architectures for delivering high performance to applications and the lack of current incentives for industry to engage in HEC architecture research all argue strongly that the Federal government should move to revitalize HEC R D 128 _______________________________________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENT _________________________________________________ EXPERIMENTATION AND FACILITIES APPENDIX E ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENT EXPERIMENTATION AND FACILITIES U S ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENT EXPERIMENTATION AND FACILITIES Combined Air Operations Centre-Experimental Langley VA Air Force Command and Control C2 Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR Center The C2 ISR Centre was established to support experimentation with processes procedures and systems associated with the USAF Air and Space Operations Center It was intended to facilitate the acquisition of fielded capabilities through a rapid spiral process resulting in leave behinds for operations Combined air operations centre experimentation is conducted under the supervision of the Air Force Experimentation Office using the facilities and infrastructure at Hurlburt Field Air Force Base and Nellis Air Force Base http www hanscom af mil hansconian Articles 2001Arts 06082001 -5 htm Unit of Action Maneuver Battle Lab Ft Knox KY Army Battlelabs This facility conducts experimentation studies and analysis for the development of the Army's Future Combat System and Unit of Action http www knox army mil center uambl index htm Futures Lab Fort Leavenworth KS U S Army Battle Command Battle Lab Battle Command Battle Lab -Leavenworth's Futures Laboratory is the focal point for the experimentation and demonstration of emerging Battle Command capabilities in support of Army Transformation Objectives Experimentation and demonstration events span echelons ________________________________________________________________________ 129 APPENDIX E _________________________________________________________________ from battalion through Army service component command The Futures Lab is responsible for the maintenance configuration and set up of Models Simulations Communications and Networks to support the Battle Command Battle Lab -Leavenworth and TRADOC experimentation objectives http www defense gov news Jun2001 n06212001_200106214 html Integrated Command Environment Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren VA Integrated Command Environment developed a series of radically different options to influence command decision-making environments in future warships http www navyleague org sea_power sep_01_12 php Joint Expeditionary Force Experiment U S Air Force Experiment Joint Expeditionary Force Experiment JEFX is a large-scale Air Force experiment designed to assist the U S Air Force in preparing for the challenges of the 21st Century Expeditionary Air and Space Force operations The experiment is an operational innovation activity that attempts to anticipate and model a future command and control system The JEFX Enterprise consists of Electronic Systems Command at Hanscom AFB 505th Command and Control Wing at Hurlburt AFB and the Air Force Command and Control Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Center and Air Combat Command SC at Langley AFB http afeo langley af mil Tidewater Node of the FORCEnet Fn Composeable Environment FnCE Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command SPAWAR SC-CH Norfolk VA A composeable Fn portal interconnects voice video and data with the entire SPAWAR claimancy in a very user-friendly manner The portal provides an advanced collaborative engineering environment for the SPAWAR Enterprise labs to deliver higher quality more expeditious solutions to the warfighter Design Objectives provide 130 ______________________________________________________________________ ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENT _________________________________________________ EXPERIMENTATION AND FACILITIES state-of-the-art information presentation systems IT systems to replicate various system design options to evaluate mission effectiveness customer satisfaction Designed with advanced human factor features to elicit optimum performance throughout the engineering process including requirements analysis systems engineering experimentation acquisition fielding Provide an environment to expeditiously exchange systems information with key developers and fleet customers S2C so that the Navy can maintain information superiority to generate transformational combat effectiveness Fn objective https mirage norfolk navy mil fnce Decision Architectures Research Environment U S Army Research Laboratory This facility was created to facilitate the integration and testing of decision support technologies on Army Research Laboratory ARL platforms The architecture consists of different layers to include communications data transmission and data presentation These layers are united through communication protocols enabling interplay of multiple components and providing the plug and play capabilities After integration the technologies will become a part of ongoing ARL programmes where experiments with soldiers are conducted and the value of the technologies are assessed http www arl army mil main researchopportunities alliances adv anced_decision_architectures_2005a cfm MULTINATIONAL ADVANCED COMMAND ENVIRONMENT EXPERIMENTATION AND FACILITIES Combined Federated Battle Laboratories Initiative The Combined Federated Battle Laboratories CFBL Initiative links scientists and defence teams from the United Kingdom United States Canada Australia New Zealand and NATO The CFBL network facilitates international research into command and control and information exchange between military forces - nationally or internationally The output of this research can then be demonstrated in a representative battlespace environment for assessment by military ________________________________________________________________________ 131 APPENDIX E _________________________________________________________________ users From the front line forces through the command chain to the Commander-in-Chief and across coalition boundaries this research will support strategic theatre operational and tactical information requirements with the aim of enhancing command and control of national and coalition forces http www dstl gov uk pr press pr2002 24-04-02 htm Multinational Experimentation North Atlantic Treaty Organization Allied Command Transformation North Atlantic Treaty Organization Allied Command Transformation conducts multinational experimentation examining command and control and coalition operations concepts http www act nato int International Technology Alliance UK U S collaboration A bilateral UK U S collaboration opportunity is currently being established It's called the International Technology Alliance www usukita com and draws on the UK Defence Technology Centres and the U S Collaborative Technology Alliance run by the Army Research Laboratory It involves government academia and industry and currently consortiums are being assembled to bid for this http www usukita com program_info html 132 ______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ACRONYMS APPENDIX F ACRONYMS ACE A D ADC ARL ASSPs ASICs Advanced Command Environments Analogue-to-Digital Analogue to Digital Converter U S Army's Research Laboratory Application Specific Signal Processor Application Specific Integrated Circuit CFBL CM CMOS CPU COP COTS Combined Federated Battle Laboratories Centimetre Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Central Processing Unit Common Operating Picture Commercial Off-the-Shelf DARPA DoD DRAM DSAC DSB DSPs Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Department of Defense Dynamic Random Access Memory Defence Science Advisory Council Defense Science Board Digital Signal Processors EAR E2EM2 Export Administration Regulations End to End Media Management Fn FPA FPGA FORCEnet Focal Plane Array Field Programmable Gate Arrays GaN GaAs GB GPS Gallium Nitride Gallium Arsenide Gigabytes Global Positioning System Gbps GSM Giga bits per second Global System for Mobile Communications HECRTF HgCdTe High-End Computing Revitalization Task force Mercury-Cadmium-Telluride ________________________________________________________________________ 133 APPENDIX F __________________________________________________________________ HPC HPCS High Performance Computing High Productivity Computing System IC ICT IHEC IP IR ISAT ISR ITAR Integrated Circuits Information and Communications Technologies Integrated High-end Computing Intellectual Property Infrared Information Science and Technology Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance International Traffic in Arms Regulation JEFX JFL JFCOM Joint Expeditionary Force Experiment Joint Futures Laboratory Joint Forces Command KB KBPS Kilobytes Thousands of Bits Per Second MARCO MEMS mA mJ mW MoD MOSIS Microelectronics Advanced Research Corporation Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems MilliAmp MilliJoule MilliWatt Ministry of Defence Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Implementation System NCW NEC NITEworks nJ NRC NRO NSA Network Centric Warfare Network Enabled Capability Network Integration Test and Experimentation Works NanoJoule National Research Council National Reconnaissance Office National Security Agency ODNI Office Director National Intelligence PGA PS Programmable Gate Arrays Persistent Surveillance RF RFID Radio Frequency Radio Frequency Identification 134 _______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ACRONYMS SPAWAR SRAM STAR Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command Static Random Access Memory Special Technology Area Review TDMA Time Division Demand Multiple Access uJ uW MicroJoule MicroWatt W g Wh g Watts gram Watt hours gram ________________________________________________________________________ 135                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu