This dam v AFCEI Secret 4- A-soa 83623 croup 3 are sun Wigwam 12 m2 m eci-msi Eic-zd WAC us I'm WEBER 1 05331 229 453 tummy Ann-busy Februsty 7 1966 to much in njskarts rrssidsnt Sukarno and the nation's top under-ship sppaar to is engaged in little ralscs games mlotsly divarccd from tho harsh manic and palititsl tealitiss of day ln omsis 'rhs Amy leadership by aiding its voice to tho chorus of preiss to Suksm and by tinting its on Palate policies we scans to luvs joinsd is In camtries public disgust st such irresponsibility would lead to putsch In traditional apathy of lndonssisn moses satinst my broadly-based and spontsusous uprising in Indonesia tors prone to action certain slants of slits including political psi- 7 activists youth groups sad summits of regionslim Tues slmats hsvs haunt to am without some Any suns bshiud thou m1 thus smathstic sad tics-prom sinuses snons the second 0 Army the 30 Affair has Biscsd the gust-d on slut and miss-ed the of Colouls' cosy watts-scum Its chancss or animating Sukarno thus to kings principally on the ability of the youth its sad lam Iilitsry tasks to oxen such pressures vithiu dusts cap as mutually to arcs a than of tactics upon top Amy les stahip Mditiotsl 739% scmwuic datotiors- tioa and raises procrastination soul St iif than to critical point In satin Pulses games will continue cm ramming DECLASSIFIED Secret Authority 2 6 Paces d f Pogo 2 A603 ckarta l Canoes for Revolt h Irooidont mac in my woyo to ho to divorced tron tho curront ocononic and politicol roolitioo of co tonic 1' from of 18th Pronto Ao otudonto dononotrotod in tho ottooto oscinot rioing pricoo sunrno diocourood on tho importanco of notionl Ions-onto Tho ohoomtion that moon woro not frying atonoo on otroot cornoro woo aa proof that thoro io plenty to oat Moi-no odnittod publicly and with a chucklo that ho knowo nothing about ocononico and lomo that oort of thin to hio odwiooro 8o hoo not honour loft thou tho nonoy no touro tho city uookly cocking oitoo for now buildingo and Mo and rocontly ollocntod $11 oillion for tho construction of building culplor for mm ot tho uncut m hio Gourmnt'o dotoolt on ioroign loano dorkonod tho proopoct for tho import of rico and conmr goodo nally tho cmaploto tranc- ornotion of tho lodonooion political ocono through tho dootruction of tho co iniot party hoo chonsod Sukoroo'o tono of woico hut not hio olosono for hookah unity I Sukarno hoo oncurod hio ioolotion tron lito o rirnor roolitioo by out-rounding hinoolt with a cahinot parli-ontoriono and ovon political potty loodoro who hm long loot touch with tho oloctoroto and con no lonsor put tho intrigues and cchonoo of tho Indicotivo of this oitnotion it tho foot that Iohdlotul Ulono youth loadoro tolt it to kidnap ond throoton thoir porty o Clair-on to onwro that ho otnck to tho tongh lino odoptod in party councilo thio loador ouhooqnontly cono nnctuch honour and rojoincd tho arty-ao- ronnd propollod by tho rrooidont'o ouiloo rcprocchoo rewards ond hrihoo c low oilitory loodoro coon to how joinod tho loloco unto Apporontly porouodod that a cloth with tho Prooidont would ondcnaor thoir own and porhopo tho notion'o tuturo Amy loodcro hove notod thoir ottacko on tho Polaco ond hovo joinod in tho choruo o praioo to tho Grant Loader of tho Revolution Enhtol 22M Tho coopicion that Amy loodoro Ibo havo fought oll thoir politicol bottlco during tho post docodo within tho confinoo of tho Ioloco hovo oloo loot touch with thoir oloctoroto B lhio airsru'attoupto to dotornino who my now ho fod up with shot it going on at tho Poloco cad Idiot thoy aro likoly to do about it 2 ggtontiol nobolo and Inhibiting roctoo'o A Itho moot Although tho ohoonco of tho ootlcto for public op on nakoo it out difficult to noaooro popular support for Qukarno thou oro sign in tho ottondnn co ot public rallioo in I at Page 3 A-503 D3 akarta the street and tangy reaction to the President's radio addresses and in the circulation figures of the anti-Palace press that Sukarno's practice has declined The logic aura of charisma end authority with the Indonesian call houihsuasn can be lost through one important mistake mum demonstrated a clear lack of divine guidance in choosing the side or the m and the population has undoubtedly taken note The Indonesian noses are unlikely new to rally in significant motor to Sukarno's defense if he is threatened an the other hand they are culturally conditioned to accept adversity passively end are equally unlikely to rise up spontaneously against Sukarno'e nisrule It disgust at recent relate genes is to evoke any nesningtul suspense it neat cone from the intellectual elite rm the students the political parties the regionalists end the second and third echelons of the military 3 The Political Parties The top leadership of the Iejor political parties has been fir-Hy soared in the tangle of relate intrigue but the second echelon contains several in uential leaders the W's Dahlee and auhchen the Catholic Party s Resins the Protestant Party's Tadaunan who have the initiative and the hollouina to act on their on These political forces have been united in Suhchan'e Action Caused now called the l antjesile hunt The Pentjasila Trent has spoken out boldly in publico-Suh i on February 2 warned that a political involving eispl cation of the party structure could evoke serious consequences In private conversations however and other Ioderete political leaders have spoken of the s accsuodation to the Palace with disheartened resimtion rather than defiance c The'Touth The political parties one most of the nilitency they have metered to their youth Djskarts students during the past ten months have uply dseonetratcd their disgust for the present regime through the Student Action Owned can we sou unites an over- whelming nejority of the youth activists in the capital and probably in the provinces The In youth are Ansor in particular possesses both the euders and the nilitancy to constitute an effective pcranilitary force The students however probably shot their red in the January street demonstrations The lieited success they attained in that operation was due to the cooperation they received from the Army tam leadership at that tine slioued itself highly sensitive to the guidelines laid down by the Amy and it is highly unlikely that they would take to the streets mch less besiege the Palace unless assured by the Army that its gone are behind then D The Regionaliste Worsening econoeic'conditions as well as signs of politi in Djekarta have undoubtedly enlivened traditional centrifugal tendencies in the provinces Recent remarks by ME mam Page 3-503 91 aherta the Atjeh lilitary Calender drawing attention to his province s self- sufficiency in rice and calling for a nore equitable distribution of oil revenues evoke modes of earlier ceeploints iron the outer fringes of the nation the decisive defeat of the 1958 rebellion however locus over the head of every exponent of mionali- end will argue against a repeat of such adventures Hare significant the provinces are non finly in the hands of the Arm and loyalty to Djakarta has figured proninently in the choice of regionel cos-eudere Any anti-resins activity in the provinces would noet likely he a reflection of disaffection within the tread torcee es uhole I The Oenorels Prospects for a Palace putech thus inevitably hinge on the tit-53 o the nilitary let all denerals agree vith hesution's and Suharto's softness towards the relate Principal none the dissenters is llinieter to the Presidiun Mendro luhendro however controls no troops and is active only as a political strategist Vest Jam Conander Adjie's recent ban on a mom Front in hie province threw a nee light on hie relation to the resins and roused eons hope none the Ialace'e opponents Mjie'e creek troops could of course play a determining role in any Djakarte power play and Adjie'a lead eould probably be tolloeed by other regional coo-sedan by hie tor-er subordinate South Sulawesi Coal-ands Solichin in particular and perhaps by Generals mkoginta and Subiran in Sumatra The banning of the Sukarno hunt however is entirely inadequate proof Mjie'e deeonstreted loyalty to Sukarno is fediu I the Colonels To find determined Sukarno opponents anon the ailitary it is necessary to move further iron the telace to the second echelons of the Any When Bjakerta pundits discuss the possibility of a Colonels' revolt or Ion le-type coup the ones first motioned is that of Colonel lave ldhie the encoder of the Perecoenndo Reginent nun wich spearheaded the enti-Pll operations in Gentrel Java and is now in streesth in the capital Servo Bdhie gave hie enthusiastic apper to student denonstrators et a tine than hie superiors were observing a discreet distance Recently hie troops have been seen with the nilitantly anti-co-Inist Heel- student organisation on and a street bamer publicly proclaimed the alliance between the and this previously untouchable rightist student group A coup in the capital would however recurs a strong element of surprise which the septeier 30 Affair has obviated Servo tdhie is aware that the Palace ward the Air Farce Special Troops PST and elenonte of tho Herine Corps all responsive to the Incident are on constant alert eyeieet such a nova end it unable to detect it at the onset could cause a lethal delay 8308M Pogo 5 5-503 o1 okorto 3 Conclusion A Uhilo ioolotod ottoqato by null gtwpo of hoot youth or diocootontod Iilitory oto olvoyo it now unlikely thot otodonto politiool prtioo rogioonlioto o1 - ocholoo any olo-ooto will Ion oithor iodividuolly or oolloctivoly to mount potooh I Mon-in not uko Iiotoko out ourploy hio hull tho oolo hopo to than in tho Poloeo loodorohip to hioao oo building up ouch oithio tho oodototo cup oo to tom looutioo on Suharto to roconoidor thoir pmoot toctico Addic- vooko o ocononic domination on procrastination could pox-hopo bring to tho critical point In tho until-o tho soon will caution undo tho auction of trooidoat Gobi-no I lootoro Consula- o Ebony to Political Affoito                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu