CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENT A RECENT UNREST INCLUDED ANTl AME ti il ACTIVITY hi lligri t• Appraisal iRAN 27 luty Shiraz MI wiiuli w L ui tr in A nwri ii I brukcn by kniuiuiIttor 1 AUgust lafahan Iipc bomb Ibrowo in US i uIstc cniiiix uflII 6 August Sbiraz Crowd attempts to cti1ir IA iornpund und br sI winduw 8 Auguac Shiru Crowd marching trota Muapi tuwardj lAS builtii 4 is diaperwd by police EarLy August Wahan Several Americana report that thcy have l ccn tliiesiem l WI y lS liiiiiiIjii RENEWAL OF CiVil Di$TUR8AJ1CES U ZINIIflENtIAl Nt Vj KN PREPARED BY Maj Don Adumick LISA Ili id NIPMtfl l UI tflIIflhi I qO Iw I II 9I%e wq 16 A1ItItT nuenjy UUIaC I Un P401111 — VU tInaclwjlu Lw in • n flII pR I ’ 7X CON 9DENTIAL 2 COi FIDENTIAL 3 C1Q1 FiDENTiA mAN RENEWAL OF CIVIL DlSflJRANCES U CONFIDENTIAL immary tC NC Ft RN Since 21 July Iran has exjeriencecl a wave of diithzi1 activity slrnltar to that wlitch plagued the country t rirt fve mouths of the year Retlgious elements opposed to the Sah have Sparked a serius at confrontations with the government thqt have resulted in 12 to 20 kitte scores injured and several hundred arrested Other pponents of the Sh It include those ot a more LLSeral bent students and sdhl terrorist grouus operating on the trlnges While these groups mu’ I have a dc initC plun reqarding fran’s future they are united in their opf usttn to the Shalt C NOFORN The receni round of disturbances Seems to indicate an I creasing anti-US tone In their competition to our do one another the various dissident groups may escalate the level or anti-American rhetori and the latent xenophobia in the Iranian character may surface This eould lead to some trouble for the large American community in Iran particularly for those who mtght get caught up in events in the more co i aervative cities CC NOFORN The recent deaths may set off is pew cycle of relifiouIs demonstrations such as those experienced earlier Ihts year The lsia z c mont1 of Ramadan now in progress and the special mourning days in laI e August inctease the chance ror further demonsLratons The governinet it will probably be able to handle the situation but the Shah is stdl faced with a dilemma How to continue liberalizing Iranian socety and maintain order at the same time without cracking down too harshly bn the dissidents -- - z -- -— - - •t_ I r”- J z a 2 backgro kid tC NOFORN The resurgince cf civil disturbances n Iran during the pat 1ei weeks is similar in many ways to that e cperiqriced from January to May It has Its roots in ltaditlonal opposition to the Shah by religious conservatives who oppose his secuIariation and m Iecnization ot Iranian society The targets at de’norstrators are the same barks movie house ehides and ordinary business establishments O4e opponents lending thetr support if not actual parcicipatio i include dose of a tnure liher l outlook sash as students follwers of the now delunct National Front and possib y terrorist groups While the disturbances az-c similar to previous demonstrations they have taken on some new twists -_ tf •-• • — CONFiDN11AL 16 78 0 A i tzlligence Apptaisa Pe I C ONFIDENTAL 4 5 CONiDENTIA5 Discussion Resurgence of Dissidence fCINOFURN The recent toubles began on 21 u1y reLigious holiday of some significance to the Shiite Muslims of Iran ltead ot holding the usual celebrations followers of Ayatollah Khomeii called for political meetings Commemorative services for Ayatollai Kofi a resecteo religious leader in the holy city of Mashed were I iowed by a violent confröntation between government security forces a J clenionstratols the next day Other cIties also reported some incidents v ich apparently were perpetrated by religious extremists CONFI DENTIAL EXILED RELIGIOUS LEADER STILL INFL JLNTIAL IN IRAN CC NOFORN During the following week mourning ceremonies for Kaii and for those killed the previou5 week led to further disturbances The rumor that Kafi was killed by government security officials further incited his following Istahan suffered the most violence consisting largely of breaking windows Casualties as reported in the government-ccintrolled press indicated that some 300 were arrested up to six persons killed and 26 injured in the two weeks of violence Events culminated in the bombing of t k US Consulate in lstah sn While there were no injuries and only minor damage was done it was i he first clearly anti-merican act in sevt rai months CCINOFORN The period from 5 to 10 August was somewhat calmer al though vioter ce occurred in the theological center of Qam and the cities of Shiraz and Isfahan Almost any occasion has beer expleited by the religious extremists to include continuing commemoration of Kafi Iran’s Ccnsttu tion Day and the start of the Muslim month of Ramadan The arresr at a prominent religious leader in lslahan by SAVA the Iranian National Intelligence and Security Organization also contributed to untigoverninerit demonstrations C NOFORN On II Augusi the Iranian Government cieclired rnariul law in the nation’s second largest city tat ahan Police attempts to break up a religious demonstration led to rioting and military forces were called iii to restore order A curfew is In effect and the gathering of three or lucre persons is prohibited The martial law is to remain in eflect lo one month and reportedly will be extended to other cities as necessary Unconfirmed press reports indicate it may already have been imposed in three small cities near Istahan The swift imposition of martial law in the industrial and tourist Center indicates the seriousness of th situation and the government’s intention to confront extremists with tie force required to restc re order Casualties in lsfahan and other cities rice It August have raised the tota killed and injured but reliable figures e nut yet avaiiah e AYAk’OLLAH RUHOLL4H KNOMEINJ AGE 76 Has attacked Shah and his refoim measures Opposed resence of Americans In Irar Exiled to Iraq In 1964 16 Aug 7 DI Ir tel igence Appraisal Page 2 CONFIDENTIAL NOFORN CONFIDEN11AL CON F’JDENTJAL 6 I CON FIDENTlA CONFIDENTIAL Poll tical Liberalization a Factor U cisti rhances As the anti-Shah demonstration rack lowri on dis winding down in May and the government annnuric’ sidence most religious leaders seemed to favor a c niti of the situation There were signs that a diulogue was taking pla t 1w i’eri the Shah and the leaier rtemphasici religious community At the siune tune the Itaiii hi policy of political IteraIization and preja i oiis for next years parlIamentary elections dominated the news The cn political at’no phere prompted much debate and generally settled tI volatile situation tC NOFORN _ tC NOFORN The rel tive calm evidently did r o sit too v ell with the Ilowers of the esilc•ci iponarch’s more extreme opponents The anti-Shah homeini appeareAo have been behind much of the ‘ olence or at least to 4ave exploited ce genuine commemorations of the religious majority eported y the outlawed TUDlH or Communist Patty of Iran is tacitly upportlng religious groups loyal to Khomeini Old time nationalists of a eftist persuasion also lend their support to the antigovernment activity if indeed While these groups may nothave the same plan for Iran’s future they have a plan — they are united in their opposition to the Shah and the present form of government — C NOFORN The recent outbreaks suggest that an increasing anti-US tore is developing in the govern iient’s opposition Those natoral frontist long opposed to the Shah have claimed that he is a puppet of the US and will cia what Washington bids They point to his tiberalL ation policy and the improvement of human rights in Iran as exampl ts that the Shah is tolioaicg US instructions Lately there have been signs that the Shah’s opposition believes that the US is not pressuring him enough on improving th poll tict l situation in Iran C NOFORN The anti-American theme is reportedly also being exploited by religious elements particularly In 1sf ahan Komeini has lcng preached against the American presence In Iran claiming the US is the principal supporter of the Shah and exploits Iran’s wealth while Americans in th country enjoy special prlvl eges Iranians typically blame their troubles oi outsiders and Americans are a convenient target In order to aii primacy over rival dissidents some religious leaders may take a moms extreme stand on opposition to the government This could be reflected i increasing anti-US statements and the latent xenophobia in the lrania populace may surface This could pose trouble for the large American community of about 37 000 to 40 000 live mcrths of civil there were very few signs of anti-US feeling in th ‘imDer of Americans l srgt the Moreover year this earlier disturbances tivc cities oh Istahan within the country particalarly in the more conwr’ events Most plam is the in up caught being some to and Shiraz could lead and shops are in a that Americans visit in I’ fahan such as restieranis Americar S s therefore higri relatively small area The concentration of increasing the possibility of incidents Outlook how to continue the ‘r at the same tune liberalization of Iranian society and maintain oct i position is presstirit without too harsh a crackdown on dissidents His security forces ala him to be even more liberal and at the same tir e on them The ma probably getting impatient with the restraints placed constant disruption Cl the with up$et doubt no is populace the of jority and order For the near normal living and they may make demands for law tactics and may make same his with continue to likely is Shah term the religious opposition Noncthc’ the with dialogue a hold to attempt another used if it is necessary to quell less firm action by security forces will be in 1sf ahati is an exaiiiple of tb law martial The the new round of violence Shah’s determination to maintain law and order C NOFORN The old dilemma for the Shah remains -- In the in ceremonies ii those killed in demonstratons have been commemorated Thus a new cycle of days later which have led to further violence July Meanwile the religious disturbances may have been set off on 22 is now ii prayer Islamic month of Ramadan — a time of tasting and of 2 to 26 AupisI progress which may increase tensions The period venerated spiritual when Iranian Shiltes mourn the death of All their most of school next leader will be a potentially dangerous time The opening month will probably add the student population to the unrest CC NOFORNLJIje Dossibilitv_O1 further disturbances -- jjhthbe turbuIenLQflOC Iran C NOFORN The months ahead are ile but continuing There_Is no threat_to_the s W yi1F Shah between the government and the opposition are iñiTm’1tB544 — C NOFORN •The anti-American tone has not thus ar surfaced publicly and it may be limited to the more extreme oppo’ tion However the number of anti-American acts In the past tew weeks unusual considerin s6 Aug 75 DIA intelligence Appraisal CC N FIDENTIAL S Page 3 16 Aug 78 - DIA Intelligence Appraisal CON FIDENTIAL 9