T O P S E C R E T S E N S I T I V E I N I T I A L C O M M E N T S 9 17 69 O NC O N C E P T O F O P E R A T I O N S 1 See a t t a c h e d for s u g g e s t e d c h a n g e s on f i r s t p a g e 2 Q u e s t i o n s on l i s t of p o s s i b l e a c t i o n s W h y m u s t the m i n i n g p r o v i d e l o n g d u r a t i o n c l o s u r e We t h e n l o s e c o n t r o l - - t h e r e w o u l d be no w a y to r e w a r d good b e h a v i o r Wouldn't m e d i u m duration - - say 2-3 months give u s m o r e f l e x i b i l i t y We c o u l d t h e n p r o m i s e to a l l o w r e o p e n i n g o r t h r e a t e n to r e s e e d a s the situation r e q u i r e d E a c h p a c k a g e w i l l be p o l i t i c a l l y m o r e d i f f i c u l t i n the U S The f i r s t m u s t t h e r e f o r e be a s tough a s p o s s i b l e to g a i n a s m u c h p s y c h o l o g i c a l effect a s i t c a n W o u l d it be p h y s i c a l l y i m p o s s i b l e to c a r r y out a l l of 1 2 and 3 a s the f i r s t p a c k a g e Of t h e s e a c t i o n s the following s e e m m o s t dubious h o w e v e r Ground actions in North V i e t n a m would r u n a v e r y h i g h r i s k of C h i n e s e g r o u n d r e a c t i o n a n d w e do not h a v e the r e s o u r c e s - - e s p e c i a l l y i n the f a c e of V i e t n a m i z a t i o n - - t o c a r r y t h e m out on a s c a l e w h i c h w o u l d p o s e m u c h t h r e a t to H a n o i B o m b i n g the d i k e s w i l l r a i s e p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m s h e r e i n the U S I t w o u l d be b e s t I b e l i e v e to s a v e t h i s f o r l a t e r but s o m e h o w i m p l y i t s p o s s i b i l i t y d u r i n g the f i r s t a c t i o n s A p e r m i s s i v e c h a n n e l into S i h a n o u k v i l l e c o u l d f a c e u s w i t h the d a i l y d e c i s i o n s w e w i s h to a v o i d i f the R u s s i a n s c h o s e to f o r c e the i s s u e t h e r e - - U n d e r 4 w o u l d t h e r e be any g e o g r a p h i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s on these high value target s y s t e m s 3 Other possible actions W h a t w o u l d be o u r c o n c u r r e n t m o v e m e n t s of s h i p s to the a r e a o u r state of s t r a t e g i c r e a d i n e s s o u r p o s t u r e i n K o r e a and B e r l i n If w e go a s f a r a s the i n t e r d i c t i o n m e a s u r e s i n 4 and 5 w h a t o t h e r a c t i o n s s h o u l d we take at t h i s v e r y h i g h l e v e l of e s c a l a t i o n once the p r e c e d e n t i s e s t a b l i s h e d W h a t w o u l d w e do i f t h e s e a c t i o n s f a i l What c o u n t e r - a c t i o n s would we take i n v a r i o u s contingencies Attachment ' TL U                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu