UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2016-07743 Doc No 006476400 Date 01 11 2018 Department of State TELEGRAM Ill Ill ICIIDII SIEP non INFO oos-oo ES-ll 9 - OFFICE II MRI I raon I 10730 PROCESS IIOID 50 OEIE 1 156 SHOULD I IO Hf 00 IIOI CGIIBOIIE I IO IICUGHIIE 12055 505 5 10 RIIHOIID 1 3 50 SHUH GI SUIJECI 4 1 or ms noun m comma 1 -ts- mm mm HESSIIE UNIFIED 3 IISG IIOI OI 10 Ill rout I0 SIRIICII GUI CGIICEPI 0F IO II II IEISI POHILII SWPOII I03 Ill 01' HIS II DIVIIEI to $011 mm I of IIUI I If 1'0 10 PUSH BIRICIIDII OF BEMCRICV OF I IS - 11 131 IO NOW I'll 550 HIS 0 87 It - HIS IIO IV I 011 Ill or IS IOIIG IS IISG ID DI OF I 37 If 591101 0 WIIEI use suomo mount mu to noun or am norm or out mumrun rosscs slou or an atom rocuults I mt mun mum mroanonou mt as soon mm Puss-consonant or slum m s to m mmuo as rotstom m a tilt in HIS 'ounmun cannon mum poms mm I am momma acuust nounmum molscmumt mm 1qu mm m mom mom'wos or umu nsmo momma v otouuo um um I on non ma non to mine nous or mm mu out nor om Ila-use In rumor out IISU onus um mum to non no ozuocmlc mass 5mm wtnolo Imomr atcoomnou on unm u ms a can wt to UNCLASSIFIED U S Departmeht of State Case No F-2016-07743 Doc No C06476400 Date 01 11 2018 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2016-07743 Doc No 006476391 Date 01 11 2018 Ono Hu I I'- - - noun II - - I a - - - RELEASE rz'rAnI PART 35 5 - - rarzr 3 - a an - no - 0 w-vn I 0' Itl'd H's - b p-a-pm-po urn uncan- I I - o I Inl - - Flu-Io - 'Iuto' 7 aa qa xamooa_ S P pwoLFowITz -- - ROUTINE f f GUATENALA DISSENT CHANNEL PAUL MOLFOUITZ 5 0 18055 z TT Ntu k TAGS casca PINSI suun sue wf SUBJECT RECOGNITION or RIOS HONTT PRESIDENCY LL 5 REF GUATENALA H173 DR - ENTIRE THANK YOU FOR YOUR DISSENT NESSAGE UHICH HAS ESYQ BEEN GIVEN THE DISTRIBUTION YOU REQUESTED AS WELL AS CUSTON- ARY DISTRIBUTION TO THE PRINCIPAL OFFICERS OF THE DEPARTUENT E SEVERAL OF THE POINTS THAT YOU NAKE IN YOUR ARE SHARED HERE- THE FUTURE COURSE OF GUATEMALA UNDER A RIOS NONTT PRESIDENCY IS CERTAINLY OPEN TO QUESTIONI THE ABSENCE OF AN ELECTORAL TINETABLE IS DISTURBINGI AND THE POLICY THAT RIOS NONTT UILL ULTINATELY TAKE TONARD THE GUERILLAS IS UN- CERTAIN- THE OBJECTIVES THAT YOU HAVE FOR GUATENALA ARE1 I BELIEVE1 UNIVERSALLY SHARED HERE--A FULL RESTORATION OF HUNAN RIGHTS AND A RETURN TO REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNNENT 3 NE ARE LESS PESSINISTIC THAN YOU ARE HONEVERI AND BELIEVE THAT THERE HAS BEEN-I SINCE THE COUP1 A HODEST POSITIVE TREND THAT IS UORTH PRESERVING AND STRENGTHENING THE HOST DIFFICULT PART OF ANY POLICY THAT IS HEAVILY INFLU- ENCED BY HUNAN RIGHTS CONSIDERATIONS IS PRECISELY THE STAGE UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2016-07743 Doc No 006476391 Date 0111112018 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2016-07743 Dec No 006476391 Date 01I11I2018 a IE u n DOCHI GQING Formal 053224 3 12 ul'State NHICH UE ARE IN GRADUAL REPLACENENT OF PUNISHNENTS BY REUARDS AS A NEANS OF RECOGNIZING PROGRESS MADE AND OF ENCOURAGING FURTHER PROGRESS- STRAIGHT-OUT CONDENNATION AND FULL-SCALE PRESSURE ARE ALTERNATIVES BUT ONLY IF THEY WORK- ON THE BASIS OF PAST PERFORNANCE IN NE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THEY NILL- THEY COULD UELL RESULT IN A REVERSAL OF THE PROGRESS HADE AND THE END OF THE BUT REAL INFLUENCE THAT WE HAVE OVER THE SITUATION IN GUATEHALA UE HAVE CONCLUDED THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE POSSI- BILITY THAT RIOS HONTT MILL PROVIDE POSITIVE LEADERSHIP IN GUATENALA- OBVIOUSLY THIS IS BY NO NEANS ASSUREDH HE IS A HERCURIAL PERSONALITY AND NUST BE UATCHED CLOSELY- IT IS INPORTANT HOUEVER TO LOOK BEHIND HIS RHETORIC TO SEE JUST WHAT HE DOES ESPECIALLY MHEN THE PERIOD DRANS TO AN END YOUR PREDICTION NAY TURN OUT TO BE COR- RECT BUT IT NOULD BE UNNISE TO PREJUDGE A SITUATION THAT HAY HAVE A POSITIVE OUTCONE ESPECIALLY UHEN THERE IS NO READILY APPARENT BETTER 5- THE PRESENT SITUATION IN GUATEHALA IS INDEED NOT BUT HARDLY LESS SO THAN THE JUNTA ITSELF FOR THAT HATTER OF ANY LIKELY SUCCESSOR I AGREE THAT HE MUST PRESS FOR A RETURN TO DENOCRACY IN GUATEHALA1 ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK HAY EVEN BE LESS BRIGHT THAN ON THE HUNAN RIGHTS FRONT- IF NE ARE TO HAVE ANY POSITIVE EFFECT1 IT IS NORE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED UITH INCENTIVES RATHER THAN SANCTIONS I FAIL TO SEE ANY REA- SON UHY ON INSTITUTIONAL NE SHOULD UITHDRAN FRON RIOS NONTT NHEN NE ARE WILLING TO DEAL UITH THE OTHER EQUALLY UNDENOCRATIC JUNTA 5 THE PROGRAHS THAT UE PROPOSE TO UNDERTAKE IN GUATE- NALA ARE LIHITED IN SCOPE AND DESIGNEDLY SO SINCE THEY ARE RESPONDING TO EVIDENCES OF PROGRESS THAT ARE ALSO LIMITED AND A SITUATION THAT IS ANBIVALENT- THEY D01 HOUEVER1 SERVE THE DUAL PURPOSE OF ENCOURAGING PROGRESS UHILE STRENGTHENING DEAL UITH FORCES UHOSE TRIUHPH UOULD OUR INTERESTS AND THOSE OF GUATE- NALA OUR ASSISTANCE SHOULD NOT BE SEEN AS SUPPORT FOR RIOS HONTT AS AN BUT FOR THE REFORN PROGRAH WE BELIEVE THAT IT PROVIDES THE BEST LEVERAGE FOR ENCOURAG- ING FURTHER IHPROVEHENT- L 5mm J an r UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2016-07743 Doc No 006476391 Date 01 11 2018 n 0 nun - - US Department of State Case No Doc No 006476391 Date 01 11 2018 OUTGOING FomlL-m' IOCEI Shed 51 Suez ulra 23 ul- 05 u-r nan o- 7- I VERY HUCH- APPRECIATE YOUR EXPRESSING YOUR VIEUS THROUGH THE DISSENT CHANNEL ON THIS ADHITTEDLY DIFFICULT HATTER- ME ARE DEALING IIJITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FUTURE AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT IN THE PRESENT HAVING THE INCLUDING THE CONSIDERATIONS THAT YOU HAVE PUT FORTH THE DEPARTNENT REMAINS OF THE A POLICY OF HODEST INCENTIVES IS BEST FOR US AND BEST FOR GUATENALA- THIS POLICY WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT UNDER CLOSE REVIEU BY THE DEPARTMENT AND THE EHBASSY TO HAKE SURE IT IS SERVING ITS PURPOSE- I AH GLAD THAT YOUR SENSITIVE CONCERN FOR THE SITUATION IN GUATEHALA IS ONE OF THE INPUTS TO THAT FORE 135-4 a UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2016-07743 Doc No 006476391 Date 01 11 2018