UNCLASSIFIED 55 Date Printed CHANNEL a 3 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING RELEACUHTMDADT 1 1 1 1 - B1 1503 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 33021 01 OF 04 201019Z ACTION SS-OO - INFO LOG-00 OASY-OO CORE-00 000w 201020z 38 0 2009182 OCT 93 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9524 INFO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 033021 DECAPTIONED FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE COLLINS E O 12356 TAGS PREL RS US SUBJECT YOUR OCTOBER 21-23 VISIT TO MOSCOW KEY FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES 2 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY YOUR VISIT PROVIDES AN IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY FOR YOU TO MEET WITH SENIOR LEADERSHIP IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE RECENT POLITICAL CRISIS IN MOSCOW YOU WILL WANT TO EXPLORE RUSSIAN THINKING ON NEXT STEPS IN THE DIFFICULT PROCESS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORM YOU WILL ALSO WANT TO MW IMPORTANCE WE PAGE 02 MOSCOW 33021 01 OF 04 201019Z ATTACH TO RUSSIA AND DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER ACCOMPANIED BY A FREE AND OPEN NEWS MEDIA IN ACCORD INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS 3 BUT THERE ARE ALSO A NUMBER OF IMPORTANT BILATERAL AND FOREIGN POLICY QUESTIONS WHICH WILL ALSO BE ON YOUR -- AND THE AGENDA THESE INCLUDE SUCH ISSUES AS NATO EXPANSION POLICIES TOWARD THE BALTIC TROOP WITHDRAWALS RELATIONS WITH UKRAINE AND Page 1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY ERIC W FLEISHER ID 4 MAY 2000 200000982 UNCLAS SIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed ll CHANNEL a 3 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING ESPECIALLY UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS AGAINST ROGUE REGIMES THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AND THE STATUS OF VARIOUS BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS YOUR BRIEFING BOOKS WILL COVER EACH ISSUE IN GREAT WE HAVE REPORTED SEPARATELY ON MOST OF THEM BELOW WE OFFER OUR FINAL THOUGHTS ON HANDLING THEM WITH THE RUSSIANS 4 IN RAISING THESE AND OTHER ISSUES YOU WILL BE LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR VICE PRESIDENT DECEMBER VISIT AND PRESIDENT JANUARY MOSCOW SUMMIT MEETING WITH PRESIDENT YELTSIN TO ENSURE THEIR SUCCESS WE WANT TO MAKE PROGRESS ON A NUMBER OF KEY ISSUES WHILE YOU ARE HERE BUT PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY YOU WILL WANT TO LEAVE THE RUSSIANS WITH THE CLEAR UNDERSTANDING THAT AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE YELTSIN GOVERNMENT AND ITS EFFORTS AND THAT THE U S IS ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN PROMOTING COMPLETE REINTEGRATION INTO THE PAGE 03 MOSCOW 33021 01 OF 04 201019Z FAMILY OF WESTERN STATES END 5 YOUR ARRIVAL COMES AS THE ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN FOR PARLIAMENT IS BEGINNING IN YOU WILL TOUCH DOWN EXACTLY ONE MONTH ALMOST TO THE MINUTE AFTER PRESIDENT YELTSIN DISSOLVED THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT AND CALLED FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS TO THE NEW STATE DUMA EVENTS SINCE THEN HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY -- SOMETIMES TRAGICALLY -- AND HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO THE RAPT ATTENTION AND CAREFUL SCRUTINY YOU WILL WANT TO SOUND OUT THINKING ON NEXT STEPS IN THE PROCESS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORM NOW THAT CHIEF LOCUS OF OPPOSITION THE SUPREME SOVIET IS NO MORE YOU WILL ALSO WANT TO REMIND THE RUSSIANS OF THE IMPORTANCE WE HTTACH TO FAIR AND DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER AND THEREAFTER ACCOMPANIED BY A FREE AND INDEPENDENT NEWS MEDIA 6 YELTSIN AND HIS MINISTERS WILL BE LOOKING TO USE Page - 2 UNCLAS SIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed CHANNEL n a 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING YOUR VISIT TO BOLSTER THEIR AUTHORITY IN THE WAKE OF DECISION TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT AND THE BLOODSHED RESULTING FROM THE ATTEMPTED UPRISING WESTERN SUPPORT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VICTORY OVER THE OPPOSITION YELTSIN AND FOREIGN MINISTER KOZYREV WILL NEED TO APPEAR TO BE DEFENDING RUSSIAN INTERESTS VIGOROUSLY NOT CAVING PAGE 04 MOSCOW 33021 01 OF 04 201019z TO WESTERN DEMANDS THEY ARE ALSO ACUTELY SENSITIVE TO ANY ACTION BY US ON ISSUES SUCH AS FORMER YUGOSLAVIA LIBYA HAITI ETC WHICH APPEAR TO TAKE SUPPORT FOR GRANTED OR FAIL TO INVOLVE PRIOR CONSULTATIONS AS A PARTNER IN DETERMINING A COURSE OF ACTION ON SOME OTHER ISSUES ESPECIALLY WHERE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OR POLITICAL INTERESTS ARE CONCERNED SUCH As ARMS SALES TO IRAN THEY WILL BE TOUGH OVERALL HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE WITH US WHEN IT REALLY MATTERS ON OUR PART WE WILL WANT To AVOID PUSHING YELTSIN AND KOZYREV TO DO ANYTHING LIKELY TO COME BACK TO HAUNT THEM IN THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS 7 SINCE JANUARY WE HAVE ESTABLISHED A SOLID PAGE 01 MOSCOW 33021 02 OF 04 2010202 ACTION SS-00 INFO LOG-00 OASY-OO ADS-00 FB3FB2 201020z 38 200918Z OCT 93 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9525 INFO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 02 OF 04 MOSCOW 033021 Page - 3 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed I CHANNEL a 10-Apr-2000 1993moscow33021 HANDLING 4 FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE COLLINS E O 12356 TAGS PREL RS US SUBJECT YOUR OCTOBER 21-23 VISIT TO MOSCOW KEY FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES DIALOGUE WITH THE RUSSIANS ON BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL QUESTIONS FOR EXAMPLE THE GORE-CHERNOMYRDIN COMMISSION THE TALBOTT-MAMEDOV CHANNEL AND THE FREQUENT VISITS BY UNDER SECRETARY DAVIS AND OTHER SENIOR U S OFFICIALS HAVE ALLOWED US TO MOVE FORWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE U S -RUSSIAN AGENDA YOUR BRIEFING BOOKS WILL ADDRESS THE VARIOUS ITEMS ON THE AGENDA IN GREATER DETAIL BUT AS YOU DEPART WASHINGTON I WANTED TO FLAG SEVERAL PAGE 02 MOSCOW 33021 02 OF 04 201020Z CONTROVERSIAL AREAS AND OFFER SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR HANDLING THEM CAREFULLY MANAGING OUR POLICY DISAGREEMENTS WILL BE THE KEY TO A SUCCESSFUL VISIT 8 THE RUSSIANS INCLUDING PRESIDENT YELTSIN MAY WELL PRESS YOU ON NATO EXPANSION THEY ARE VERY MUCH AWARE THAT THE U S POLICY DEBATE ON THIS ISSUE IS AT A KEY STAGE DESPITE WELL- PUBLICIZED REMARKS IN WARSAW TO THE EFFECT THAT RUSSIA WOULD NOT SEEK TO BLOCK NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR FORMER WARSAW PACT STATES THIS ISSUE IS NEURALGIC TO THE RUSSIANS THEY EXPECT TO END UP ON THE WRONG SIDE OF A NEW DIVISION OF EUROPE IF ANY DECISION IS MADE QUICKLY NO MATTER HOW NUANCED IF NATO ADOPTS A POLICY WHICH ENVISIONS EXPANSION INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE WITHOUT HOLDING THE DOOR OPEN TO RUSSIA IT WOULD BE UNIVERSALLY INTERPRETED IN MOSCOW AS DIRECTED AGAINST RUSSIA AND RUSSIA ALONE -- OR AS FOREIGN MINISTER KOZYREV RECENTLY SUGGESTED THIS ISSUE IS AN ESPECIALLY HIGH-PROFILE ISSUE IN THE RUN-UP TO THE DECEMBER Page - 4 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed I CHANNEL n a 3 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING ELECTIONS YELTSIN NEEDS TO BE SEEN DEFENDING RUSSIAN INTERESTS -- AND BEING TREATED AS ONE OF THE FAMILY OF DEMOCRATIC STATES IN YOUR MEETINGS WHAT THE RUSSIANS HOPE TO HEAR FROM YOU IS THAT NATO IS NOT MOVING PRECIPITOUSLY AND THAT ANY POLICY NATO ADOPTS WILL APPLY THEY WOULD ALSO PAGE 03 MOSCOW 33021 02 OF 04 201020Z WELCOME ANYTHING YOU CAN TELL THEM ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO MEMBERSHIP E G THE FOR 9 THE RUSSIANS HAVE WITHDRAWN ALL OF THEIR TROOPS FROM LITHUANIA AND HAVE ONLY TWENTY THOUSAND OR SO SOLDIERS LEFT IN LATVIA AND ESTONIA ABOUT WHICH THEY ARE NEGOTIATING YELTSIN HAS MADE THE POLITICAL DECISION TO WITHDRAW RUSSIAN FORCES FROM THE BALTICS BUT THE RUSSIANS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT TIMING WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE AVAILABILITY OF HOUSING TODAY WE ARE DELIVERING PRESIDENT RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT OCTOBER 6 LETTER ON THE YOUR DISCUSSIONS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS EXCHANGE THE 10 POLITICAL AND MILITARY POLICIES TOWARD THE SO-CALLED HAVE BEEN VARIOUSLY INTERPRETED AS EFFORTS TO REGENERATE THE USSR RUSSIAN NATIONALIST OR THE NORMAL REACTION OF ANY SOVEREIGN STATE T0 ARMED TURMOIL ALONG ITS BORDERS WHEN YOU DISCUSS THE SPECIFIC CASES -- GEORGIA NAGORNO-KARABAKH TAJIKISTAN THE PAGE 04 MOSCOW 33021 02 OF 04 201020Z TRANS-DNIESTER REINTEGRATION WITHIN THE CIS YOU WILL FIND THE RUSSIANS SENSITIVE TO BEING SINGLED OUT FOR ANY CRITICISM THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO Page 5 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed CHANNEL n a 10 -Apr 2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING REESTABLISH THE SOVIET OR RUSSIAN EMPIRES WE HAVE STRESSED THAT THE BEST WAY TO AVOID MISUNDERSTANDING IS TO CONSULT WITH THE U S AND OTHERS AND BE AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE BUT THE RUSSIANS ARE GROWING IMPATIENT WITH FINGER-WAGGING WARNINGS ABOUT RUSSIAN ACTIONS ALONG THE PERIPHERY THAT ARE UNACCOMPANIED BY SIGNS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS WILLING TO GET SERIOUSLY INVOLVED IN THE PROBLEM ON THE QUESTION OF INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR RUSSIAN YOU CAN POINT OUT THAT THE U S HAS BEEN MORE ATTENTIVE AND FORTHCOMING THAN ANY OTHER UNSC MEMBER ALBEIT WHILE INSISTING ON APPROPRIATE CONDITIONS-AND SAFEGUARDS - UKRAINE PAGE 01 MOSCOW 33021 03 OF 04 201021Z ACTION SS-OO INFO FB3FC4 2010212 38 200918Z OCT 93 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW T0 SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9526 INFO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 03 OF 04 MOSCOW 033021 FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE COLLINS E O 12356 TAGS PREL Rs US SUBJECT YOUR OCTOBER 21-23 VISIT T0 MOSCOW KEY FOREIGN POLICY 11 THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THE RUSSIANS ALTERNATE BETWEEN APPRECIATION FOR THE U S STANCE ON A NON- NUCLEAR UKRAINE AND WORRY THAT THE U S BY ACCIDENT Page - 6 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 CHANNEL n a HANDLING OR DESIGN IS ENCOURAGING UKRAINIAN PRETENTIONS TO RETAIN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A COUNTER TO PRESUMED IMPERIAL AMBITIONS CURRENTLY THE RUSSIANS SEEM TO BE TILTING TOWARD ANGST YOUR PAGE 02 MOSCOW 33021 03 OF 04 2010212 PRE-DEPARTURE STATEMENT THAT YOU WILL BE URGING UKRAINIANS TO FULFILL THEIR ARMS CONTROL OBLIGATIONS HOWEVER HAS PLAYED WELL IN MOSCOW THE IT WILL BE IMPORTANT THAT YOU BRIEF THE RUSSIANS FULLY ON THE APPROACH YOU INTEND TO TAKE WITH THE UKRAINIANS 12 THE RUSSIANS ARE CONCERNED THAT THE U S NOT EXPAND MILITARY COOPERATION WITH UKRAINEJ AUGUST 26 TRILATERAL MEETING IN LONDON OF 3 THE RUSSIANS DEEPLY IA ATED THE APPROACH THE U S TOOK AT THE ENCOURAGING MOSCOW AND KIEV TO AGREE BILATERALLY ON SPECIFICS UNDER A TRILATERAL UMBRELLA THE RUSSIANS HAVE TAKEN THE POSITION THAT THE AGREEMENTS ON NUCLEAR DISMANTLEMENT AND MAINTENANCE REACHED WITH UKRAINE AT THE OCTOBER 3 YALTA SUMMIT ARE STILL B1 B1 B1 Page - 7 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed - CHANNEL n a 10-Apr-2000 1993moscow33021 HANDLING 13 AN ISSUE THAT COULD BE TROUBLESOME IS UN SANCTIONS AGAINST SERBIA LIBYA AND IRAQ IN EACH CASE THE RUSSIANS MAKE THE CASE THAT THEY ARE LOSING LARGE SUMS OF CASH BECAUSE OF THE SANCTIONS REGIMES IN THE CASE OF SERBIA MOSCOW ALSO SEES BELGRADE AS HAVING FULFILLED MANY OF THE PRECONDITIONS FOR A LIFTING OR AT LEAST LOOSENING OF SANCTIONS WITH REGARD TO LIBYA AND IRAQ THE RUSSIANS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THEY WANT TO BE CONSULTED AND NOT TAKEN FOR GRANTED ON SANCTIONS ISSUES 14 ON OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES YOU WILL WANT TO EMPHASIZE U S -RUSSIAN COOPERATION ESPECIALLY WHEN DISCUSSING THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS KEEPING PAGE 04 MOSCOW 33021 03 OF 04 2010212 THE RUSSIANS IN THE LIMELIGHT AS CO-SPONSORS OF THE NEGOTIATIONS PAYS OFF IN KEEPING THE POSITIVE ASPECTS OF OUR PARTNERSHIP FRONT AND CENTER KOZYREV WILL ALSO WELCOME ANY U S PRAISE FOR ROLE IN AREAS SUCH AS ANGOLA AND THE MFA RECENTLY PROPOSED THAT RUSSIA PLAY A SIMILAR ROLE IN ETHIOPIA WHERE MOSCOW STILL BELIEVES IT HAS INFLUENCE WITH SOME OF THE CONFLICTING PARTIES ON YUGOSLAVIA APART FROM THE SANCTIONS QUESTIONS YOU WILL FIND THE RUSSIANS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED SERB-CROATIAN FIGHTING YOU WILL ALSO WANT TO HEAR THEIR VIEWS OF THE LIKELIHOOD TO SERBIAN ACTION IN KOSOVO THEY ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED HERE ABOUT BEING KEPT FULLY IN THE LOOP ON ANY PROPOSED ACTIONS Page 8 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed CHANNEL n a 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING OUTSTANDING AGREEMENTS PAGE 01 MOSCOW 33021 04 OF 04 201021Z ACTION SS-00 INFO OASY-00 ADS-00 CORE-00 FB3FD7 2010222 38 200918Z OCT 93 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9527 INFO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 04 OF 04 MOSCOW 033021 FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE COLLINS E O 12356 TAGS PREL RS US SUBJECT YOUR OCTOBER 21-23 VISIT TO MOSCOW KEY FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES 15 UNDER SECRETARY DAVIS AND OTHER SENIOR U S OFFICIALS WILL BE IN TOWN IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO YOUR ARRIVAL DISCUSSING SEVERAL OUTSTANDING ISSUES WE WILL BE PROVIDING YOU WITH UPDATES ON THESE ISSUES AS THEY DEVELOP HOWEVER GIVEN PRE-ELECTION POLITICS GETTING PRESIDENT YELTSIN TO TAKE CONTROVERSIAL STEPS SUCH AS RATIFYING AND BEGINNING TO IMPLEMENT START II WHILE HE IS EXERCISING RULE BY B1 Page 9 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed CHANNEL n a 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING DECREE WILL BE A SERIOUS UPHILL STRUGGLE 16 ON ISSUES SUCH AS THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER ISTC WE CAN READILY SUPPORT THE STATED INTENTION OF MAKING THE CENTER OPERATIONAL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO INDEED MOVE QUICKLY THE ISTC AGREEMENT IS CLEARLY IN INTEREST AND WAS BEING HELD UP BY THE SUPREME SOVIET BASED MORE ON PIQUE THAN POLICY DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER MAMEDOV TOLD US THAT FOREIGN MINISTER KOZYREV WILL ALSO RAISE THE NUCLEAR REACTOR SAFETY AGREEMENT WITH YOU WE NOW HAVE AN AD REFERENDUM AGREEMENT BUT STILL NEED TO SETTLE ONE OUTSTANDING LIABILITY QUESTION WE BELIEVE YOU SHOULD UNDERSCORE U S INTEREST IN A MAXIMUM JOINT EFFORT TO WORK OUT THE REMAINING PROBLEM IN TIME FOR THE VICE VISIT TO MOSCOW -- IF NOT SOONER 17 AT OUR URGING CANADA JAPAN AND MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY HAVE AGREED TO WORK PAGE 03 MOSCOW 33021 04 OF 04 2010212 INTENSIVELY TO DEVELOP A PLAN FOR RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT AS A FULL PARTNER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD THE CURRENT PARTNERS AND THE RUSSIANS WILL HAVE MUCH TO DO TO SET THE OVERALL AND TECHNICAL FRAMEWORK FOR PARTICIPATION AS A FULL PARTNER YOU SHOULD URGE THE RUSSIANS TO MAKE MAXIMUM EFFORTS IN THIS REGARD 18 FINALLY IN ADDITION TO THE MAJOR SUBSTANTIVE ASPECTS OF YOUR VISIT YOU -- ALONG WITH THE RUSSIANS WILL BE LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR VICE PRESIDENT UPCOMING VISIT AND PRESIDENT JANUARY SUMMIT WITH PRESIDENT YELTSIN YOUR DISCUSSIONS CAN HELP TO ENSURE THEIR SUCCESS BY Page - 10 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Date Printed CHANNEL n a 10-Apr-2000 1993MOSCOW33021 HANDLING - LAYING OUT THE ROAD MAP FOR PROGRESS ON THE VARIOUS ISSUES INVOLVED THIS WILL ALLOW THE MOSCOW SESSION OF THE GORE-CHERNOMYRDIN COMMISSION TO FINALIZE OTHER AGREEMENTS FOR CONCLUSION DURING THE JANUARY SUMMIT YOU CAN ALSO USE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO REITERATE THE VICE FULL COMMITMENT TO THE GORE-CHERNOMYRDIN PROCESS AND HIS INTENTION THAT THE WORK PRODUCE A RANGE OF SPECIFIC AGREEMENTS THAT VISIBLY DEMONSTRATE THE EXTENT OF OUR EXPANDING COOPERATION 19 BUT PERHAPS JUST AS YOU WILL WANT PAGE 04 MOSCOW 33021 04 OF 04 201021Z TO LEAVE THE RUSSIANS WITH THE CLEAR UNDERSTANDING THAT AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE YELTSIN GOVERNMENT AND ITS PRO-REFORM EFFORTS IN ADDITION YOU WILL WANT THE RUSSIANS TO KNOW THAT THE U S IS ACTIVELY PROMOTING COMPLETE REINTEGRATION INTO THE FAMILY OF WESTERN STATES IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARMORED ASSAULT ON THE RUSSIAN YOUR VISIT THE FIRST BY A-SENIOR WESTERN OFFICIAL SINCE OCTOBER 4 WILL BE A DEFINITIVE SIGNAL THAT YELTSIN IS NOT BEING HELD TO BLAME FOR THE BLOODSHED WHICH HE TRIED REPEATEDLY TO AVOID THIS IS A SIGNAL THAT SHOULD BE SENT -- TOGETHER WITH THE NEED FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS -- AND IT WILL BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED BY YOUR HOSTS COLLINS Page - 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