S HRG 114-623 CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES HEARING BEFORE THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE OF THE UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION TUESDAY FEBRUARY 9 2016 Printed for the use of the Select Committee on Intelligence Available via the World Wide Web http www fdsys gov U S GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON 20-544 PDF 2017 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Publishing Office Internet bookstore gpo gov Phone toll free 866 512-1800 DC area 202 512-1800 Fax 202 512-2104 Mail Stop IDCC Washington DC 20402-0001 VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE Established by S Res 400 94th Cong 2d Sess RICHARD BURR North Carolina Chairman DIANNE FEINSTEIN California Vice Chairman JAMES E RISCH Idaho RON WYDEN Oregon DANIEL COATS Indiana BARBARA A MIKULSKI Maryland MARCO RUBIO Florida MARK WARNER Virginia SUSAN COLLINS Maine MARTIN HEINRICH New Mexico ROY BLUNT Missouri ANGUS KING Maine JAMES LANKFORD Oklahoma MAZIE K HIRONO Hawaii TOM COTTON Arkansas MITCH MCCONNELL Kentucky Ex Officio HARRY REID Nevada Ex Officio JOHN MCCAIN Arizona Ex Officio JACK REED Rhode Island Ex Officio DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER CHRIS JOYNER Staff Director MICHAEL CASEY Minority Staff Director DESIREE THOMPSON SAYLE Chief Clerk II VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN CONTENTS FEBRUARY 9 2016 OPENING STATEMENTS Burr Hon Richard Chairman a U S Senator from North Carolina Feinstein Hon Dianne Vice Chairman a U S Senator from California 1 2 WITNESS DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER Clapper James R Director of National Intelligence Accompanied by John Brennan Director Central Intelligence Agency LtGen Vincent Stewart Director Defense Intelligence Agency James Comey Director Federal Bureau of Investigation and Adm Michael Rogers Director National Security Agency Prepared statement III VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 4 9 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY FEBRUARY 9 2016 SELECT COMMITTEE U S SENATE ON INTELLIGENCE Washington DC The Committee met pursuant to notice at 2 38 p m in Room SH-216 Hart Senate Office Building Hon Richard Burr Chairman of the Committee presiding Committee Members Present Senators Burr Feinstein Coats Collins Blunt Lankford Cotton Wyden Warner Heinrich King and Hirono OPENING STATEMENT OF HON RICHARD BURR CHAIRMAN A U S SENATOR FROM NORTH CAROLINA DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER Chairman BURR I'd like to call the hearing to order and I'd like to welcome our witnesses today Director of National Intelligence James Clapper Director of Central Intelligence Agency John Brennan Director of Defense Intelligence Agency General Vincent Stewart Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Jim Comey and Director of the National Security Agency Admiral Rogers To each of you welcome I'd note that Director Clapper and General Stewart have already appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning and I appreciate you both suffering through a very long day of testimony I also thank our other witnesses for their attendance and participation Today's hearing presents an opportunity for both the witnesses and the members of the committee It's my sincere hope that our discussion will shed some light on the dedicated and tireless work of our intelligence community professionals the men and women represented by our witnesses Their efforts to keep America safe often go unrecognized but that does not mean it goes unnoticed I've spent the better part of 20 years as a member of the Congressional intelligence committees and have seen the scale scope and type of threats to our Nation evolve greatly We no longer live in a world defined by a few distinct and well-defined threats Our intelligence professionals are faced with collecting against and analyzing the threat posed by a range of actors from nation-states on down to home-grown violent extremists Director Clapper in your statement you've pulled together the collective expertise of the intelligence community's extraordinary men and women We value your laying out for our benefit the diverse and evolving and decentralized system of threats that imperil 1 VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 2 this Nation and its interests across the globe I ask that everyone take a moment to reflect on the range of expertise required to make sense of this information I note in your statement that cyber and more broadly technology headline your global threats I agree with the assessment that innovation and increased reliance on information technology in the next few years will have significant consequences on society's way of life and more specifically how your officers perform their mission I look forward to your highlighting some of the challenges and consequences as you see them I also remain concerned by the technological reach of ISIL and the danger of their using the information technology social media online unlimited research capabilities we use every day to propagate their barbaric message Jim I do hope you'll dedicate some time to laying out that particular threat and I thank you again for being here today I'd like to also highlight for my colleagues that the Committee will be holding a classified hearing on worldwide threats later this week To the degree it needs saying please reserve any questions that you think might not be appropriate for an open session until the Thursday hearing With that again I welcome our witnesses here today and I turn to the Vice Chairman for any comments she might have DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER OPENING STATEMENT OF HON DIANNE FEINSTEIN VICE CHAIRMAN A U S SENATOR FROM CALIFORNIA Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Thanks very much Mr Chairman I join you in welcoming our witnesses and also thanking the intelligence community for its service to this country I also share your sentiment that this annual open hearing is important to help explain to the American people the threats that face this Nation and the efforts of the dedicated men and women of the intelligence community to keep us safe I want to open my comments by recognizing the significant contributions made by you Director Clapper as the leader of this community You're the longest serving Director of National Intelligence to date and I think both the Chairman and I remember when this the DNI was developed and put into effect Your capable stewardship of the community has driven it to be a more integrated and capable organization than at any time in history So I want to personally thank you for the contributions you have made to this country's security But as you know there is no rest for the weary The threats that face this Nation and our allies seem only to grow The Syrian war is approaching its fifth year Yet Bashar Al-Assad is still in power and a refugee crisis is destroying the lives of millions of innocent families and wreaking havoc across Europe We are witnessing the resurgence of an unpredictable Russia in Eastern Europe and Syria North Korea last month conducted its fourth nuclear bomb test and two days ago conducted what it called a space launch Of course this is actually a thinly veiled test to develop missiles that could deliver weapons of mass destruction against a number of countries including the United States VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 3 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER While these threats are significant and troubling we are all deeply concerned about the threat from ISIL the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and other terrorist groups To us ISIL is much more than a regional threat within the Syrian and Iraqi borders It's a terrorist army a global exporter of terrorism with a presence in a number of countries The official count is 11 including ISIL affiliates But some of our friends like the King of Jordan have said they're in as many as 17 countries And ISIL has the ability to spread its message of hate and violence around the world using social media in a very sophisticated way Director Clapper I've read your written comments and am very much interested in your assessment of these global threats their status today and the outlook for the future I'd also ask you to comment on how the intelligence community is positioned to address these threats Is it better today than it was let's say five years ago For instance while the coalition's air campaign is helping to deny ISIL some territorial safe havens and financial resources how do we degrade it and destroy it if all they need to carry out an attack on the West is an Internet connection and an encrypted message application I'd like to hear your assessments of how the rise of end-to-end encryption has impacted our Nation's ability to identify and track individuals who seek to do us harm Director Comey has spoken of this concern often Director Rogers recently highlighted it as well I'm interested in your views today about its impact and how you recommend we tackle this problem of terrorists and criminals communicating via these encrypted message applications The U S Freedom Act that passed last year eliminated the bulk collection of telephone communications metadata and the new law now requires specific queries with FISA Court approval to individual telecommunication companies Has this change affected your ability to discover new threats and relationships I'll save the rest of my comments for questions But gentlemen thank you very much for being here We look forward to discussion Chairman BURR Thank you Vice Chairman Before I recognize Director Clapper let me say to members it's my intent--hopefully it's been conveyed to all members--you will be recognized for five minutes in the order that you appeared with one exception If there is no objection when Director Clapper's testimony is over I would like to recognize Senator Lankford for a first set of questions for the simple reason that on Tuesdays he has to preside over the Senate and he has to preside at 3 20 today and I'd like to let him get a set of questions in So Jim James you will be recognized With that the floor is yours Director Clapper VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 4 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER STATEMENT OF HON JAMES R CLAPPER DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ACCOMPANIED BY JOHN BRENNAN DIRECTOR CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY LtGen VINCENT STEWART DIRECTOR DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY JAMES COMEY DIRECTOR FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION AND ADM MICHAEL ROGERS DIRECTOR NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY Director CLAPPER Chairman Burr and Vice Chairman Feinstein members of the committee First Chairman Burr thanks very much for the acknowledgment particularly of the great men and of women of the U S intelligence community whom we represent here today It's very appropriate that you do that for the great work that they do And Madam Vice Chairman thanks very much for acknowledging my long service It's very gracious of you We're here today to update you on some but certainly not all of the pressing intelligence and national security issues facing our Nation many of which you both alluded to and so there will be a certain amount of echo here I guess In the interest of time and to get to your questions we'll cover just some of the wavetops and mine will be the only opening statement so we can go to your questions I apologize in advance to the crossover members who were present this morning at the Senate Armed Services Committee But in the highest traditions of that's our story we're sticking to it it'll be the same statement As I said last year unpredictable instability has become the new normal and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future Violent extremists are operationally active in about 40 countries Seven countries are experiencing a collapse of central government authority and 14 others face regime-threatening or violent instability or both Another 59 countries face a significant risk of instability through 2016 The record level of migrants more than one million arriving in Europe is likely to grow further this year Migration and displacement will strain countries in Europe Asia Africa and the Americas There are some 60 million people worldwide considered displaced Extreme weather climate change environmental degradation rising demand for food and water poor policy decisions and inadequate infrastructure will magnify this instability Infectious diseases and vulnerabilities in the global supply chain for medical countermeasures will continue to pose threats For example the Zika virus first detected in the Western Hemisphere in 2014 has reached the U S and is projected to cause up to four million cases in this hemisphere With that preface I want to briefly comment on both technology and cyber specifically Technological innovation during the next few years will have an even more significant impact on our way of life This innovation is central to our economic prosperity but it will bring new security vulnerabilities The Internet of Things will connect tens of billions of physical devices that could be exploited Artificial intelligence will enable computers to make autonomous decisions about data and physical systems and potentially disrupt labor markets VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00008 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 5 Russia and China continue to have the most sophisticated cyber programs China continues cyber espionage against the United States Whether China's commitment of last September moderates its economic espionage remains to be seen Iran and North Korea continue to conduct cyber espionage as they enhance their attack capabilities Non-state actors also pose cyber threats ISIL has used cyber to its great advantage not only for recruitment and propaganda but also to hack and release sensitive information about U S military personnel As a non-state actor ISIL displays unprecedented online proficiency Cyber criminals remain the most pervasive cyber threat to the U S financial sector They use cyber to conduct theft extortion and other criminal activities Turning to terrorism there are now more Sunni violent extremist groups members and safe havens than at any time in history The rate of foreign fighters traveling to the conflict zones in Syria and Iraq in the past few years is without precedent At least 38 200 foreign fighters including at least 6 900 from western countries have traveled to Syria from at least 120 countries since the beginning of the conflict in 2012 As we saw in the November Paris attacks returning foreign fighters with firsthand battlefield experience pose a dangerous operational threat ISIL has demonstrated sophisticated attack tactics and tradecraft ISIL including its eight established and several more emerging branches has become the preeminent global terrorist threat ISIL has attempted or conducted scores of attacks outside of Syria and Iraq in the last 15 months and ISIL's estimated strength globally now exceeds that of Al-Qaeda ISIL's leaders are determined to strike the U S homeland beyond inspiring home-grown violent extremist attacks Although the U S is a harder target than Europe ISIL external operations remain a critical factor in our threat assessment for 2016 Al-Qaeda's affiliates also have proven resilient Despite counterterrorism pressure that's largely decimated the core leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan Al-Qaeda affiliates are positioned to make gains in 2016 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Al-Nusra Front the Al-Qaeda chapter in Syria are the two most capable Al-Qaeda branches The increased use by violent extremists of encrypted and secure Internet and mobile-based technologies enables terrorist actors to go dark and serves to undercut intelligence and law enforcement efforts Iran continues to be the foremost state sponsor of terrorism and exerts its influence in regional crises in the Middle East through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force its terrorist partner Lebanese Hezbollah and proxy groups Iran and Hezbollah remain a continuing terrorist threat to U S interests and partners worldwide We saw firsthand the threat posed to the United States by homegrown violent extremists in the July attack in Chattanooga and the attack in December in San Bernardino In 2014 the FBI arrested nine ISIL supporters and in 2015 that number increased over fivefold VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00009 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 6 Turning to weapons of mass destruction North Korea continues to conduct test activities of concern to the United States On Saturday evening Pyongyang conducted a satellite launch and subsequently claimed that the satellite was successfully placed in orbit Additionally last month North Korea carried out its fourth nuclear test claiming it was a hydrogen bomb But the yield was too low for it to have been a successful test of a thermonuclear device Pyongyang continues to produce fissile material and develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile It is also committed to developing a long-range nuclear-armed missile that's capable of posing a direct threat to the United States although the system has not been flight tested Despite its economic challenges Russia continues its aggressive military modernization program It has the largest and most capable foreign nuclear-armed ballistic missile force It has developed a cruise missile that violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces or INF Treaty China continues to modernize its nuclear missile force and is striving for a secure second strike capability It continues to profess a ''no first use'' doctrine The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA provides us much greater transparency into Iran's fissile material production It increases the time the Iranians would need to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon from a few months to about a year Iran probably views the JCPOA as a means to remove sanctions while preserving some nuclear capability Iran's perception of how the JCPOA helps it achieve its overall strategic goals will dictate its level of adherence or compliance to the agreement over time Chemical weapons continue to pose a threat in Syria and Iraq Damascus has used chemicals against the opposition on multiple occasions since Syria joined the Chemical Weapons Convention ISIL has also used toxic chemicals in Iraq and Syria including the blister agent sulfur mustard--the first time an extremist group has produced and used a chemical warfare agent in an attack since Aum Shinrikyo used sarin in Japan in 1995 Turning to space and counter-space there are about 80 countries that are now engaged in the space domain Russia and China well understand how our military fights and how heavily we rely on space They're each pursuing destructive and disruptive anti-satellite systems China continues to make progress on its anti-satellite missile program Moving to counter-intelligence the threat from foreign intelligence entities both state and non-state is persistent complex and evolving Targeting collection of U S political military economic and technical information by foreign intelligence services continues unabated Russia and China pose the greatest threat followed by Iran and Cuba on a lesser scale As well the threat from insiders taking advantage of their access to collect and remove sensitive national security information will remain a persistent challenge for us With respect to trans-national organized crime I do want to touch on one crime issue specifically drug trafficking Southwest border seizures of heroin in the United States have doubled since VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00010 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 7 2010 Over 10 000 people died of heroin overdoses in the United States in 2014 much of it laced with fentanyl which is 30 to 50 times more potent than heroin In that same year more than 28 000 died from opiate overdoses And cocaine production in Colombia from which most U S supplies originate has increased significantly Now let me quickly move through a few regional issues In East Asia China's leaders are pursuing an active foreign policy while dealing with much slower economic growth Chinese leaders have also embarked on the most ambitious military reforms in China's history Regional tension will continue as China pursues construction at its outposts in the South China Sea Russia has demonstrated its military capabilities to project itself as a global power command respect from the West maintain domestic support for the regime and advance Russian interests globally Moscow's objectives in the Ukraine will probably remain unchanged including maintaining long-term influence over Kiev and frustrating its attempts to integrate into western institutions Putin is the first leader since Stalin to expand Russia's territory Moscow's military venture into Syria marks its first use since its foray into Afghanistan of significant expeditionary combat power outside of the post-Soviet space Its interventions demonstrate the improvements in Russian military capabilities and the Kremlin's confidence in using them Moscow faces the reality however of economic recession driven in large part by falling oil prices as well as sanctions Russia's nearly 4 percent GDP contraction last year will probably extend well into 2016 In the Mideast and South Asia there are more cross-border military operations under way in the Mideast region than at any time since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War In Iraq anti-ISIL forces in Iraq will probably make incremental gains through this spring similar to those made in Baiji and Ramadi in the past few months ISIL is now somewhat on the defensive and its territory and manpower are shrinking but it remains a formidable threat In Syria pro-regime forces have the initiative having made some strategic gains near Aleppo and Latakia in the north as well as in southern Syria Manpower shortages however will continue to undermine the Syrian regime's ability to accomplish its strategic battlefield objectives The opposition has less equipment and firepower and its groups lack unity They sometimes have competing battlefield interests and fight among themselves Meanwhile some 250 000 people have been killed as this war has dragged on The humanitarian situation in Syria continues to deteriorate As of last month there were approximately 4 4 million Syrian refugees and another 6 5 million internally displaced persons which together represent about one-half of Syria's population In Libya despite the December agreement to form a new government of national accord establishing authority and security across the country will be difficult at best with hundreds of militia groups operating throughout the country ISIL has established its most developed branch outside of Syria in Libya--outside of Syria and Iraq in Libya and maintains a presence in Sirte Benghazi Tripoli and other areas of the country VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00011 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 8 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER In Yemen the conflict will probably remain stalemated through at least mid-2016 Meanwhile AQAP and ISIL's affiliates in Yemen have exploited the conflict and the collapse of government authority to recruit and expand territorial control The country's economic and humanitarian situation also continues to deteriorate Iran deepened its involvement in the Syria Iraqi and Yemeni conflicts in 2015 It also increased military cooperation with Russia highlighted by its battlefield alliance in Syria in support of the regime Iran's supreme leader continues to view the United States as a major threat We assess his views will not change despite the implementation of the JCPOA deal the exchange of detainees and the release of the 10 U S sailors In South Asia Afghanistan is at serious risk of a political breakdown during 2016 occasioned by mounting political economic and security challenges Waning political cohesion increasingly assertive local power brokers financial shortfalls and sustained countrywide Taliban attacks are eroding stability Needless to say there are many more threats to U S interests worldwide that we can address most of which are covered in our statement for the record But I'll stop this litany of doom and open to your questions Before I do that I do want to answer one question that Madam Vice Chairman asked about the state of the community now vs five years ago I would like to think that we are better as a community just from the simple proposition of the sum being greater than the parts because we operate as an integrated enterprise Others may have a comment on that None of them are unwilling to disagree with me but that's my view So I'll stop there and open to your questions The prepared statement of Director Clapper follows VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00012 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 9 VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00013 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 1 here 20544 001 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER Intelligence 10 STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD WORLDWIDE THREAT ASSESSMENT of the US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY February 9 2016 INTRODUCTION Chairman Burr VJCe Chairman Feinstein Members of the Committee -'thank you fpr the invitation to offer the United States lnteUigence community's 2016 assessment of threats to US national security My statement reflects the collective insights of the lntenigence community's extraordinary men and women whom I am privileged and honored to lead We in the Intelligence Community are committed every day to provide the nuanced multidisciplinary intelligence that policymakers warfighters and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives end America's interests anywhere in the world The order of the topics presented in this statement does not necessarily Indicate the relative importance or magnitude of the threat in the view of the Intelligence community VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00014 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 2 here 20544 002 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER Information available as of February 3 2016 was used in the preparation of this assessment 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS Pa GLOBAL THREATS Cyber and Technology Terrorism 4 Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation 6 Space and Counterspace 9 Counterintelligence 10 Transnational Organized Crime 11 Economics and Natural Resources 12 Human Security 13 REGIONAL THREATS East Asia China 16 16 Southeast Asia North Korea 17 17 Russia and Eurasia 17 17 19 19 Russia Ukraine Belarus and Moldova The Caucasus and Central Asia Europe 20 20 20 21 Key Partners TheBalkana Turkey Middle East and North Africa 21 21 22 Iraq Syria Libya 23 23 Yemen Iran 24 VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00015 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 3 here 20544 003 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER ii 12 25 25 25 Lebanon Egypt Tunisia South Asia 26 26 27 27 Afghanistan Bangladesh Pakistan and India Sub-Saharan Africa 27 27 28 28 28 28 Central Africa Somalia South Sudan Sudan Nigeria Latin America and Caribbean 28 28 29 29 29 Central America Cuba Venezuela Brazil VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00016 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 4 here 20544 004 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER ill 13 GLOBAL THREATS CYBER AND TECHNOLOGY Strategic Outlook The consequences of innovation and increased reliance on infonnatlon technology In the next few years on both our society's way of life in general and how we in the Intelligence Community specifically perform our mission Will probably be far greater in scope and impact than ever Devices designed and fielded with minimal security requirements and testing and an ever-increasing complexity of networks could lead to widespread vulnerabilities in civilian infrastructures and US Government systems These developments will pose challenges to our cyber defenses and operational tradecraft but also create new opportunities for our own intelfigence collectors Internet of Things loT osmart devices incorporated into the electric grid vehicles-including autonomous vehiele -and household appliances are improving effiCiency energy conservation and convenience However security industry analysts have demonstrated that many of these new s can threaten data privacy data integritY or continuity of services In the future intelligence services might use the loT for identification surveillance monitoring location tracking and targeting for recruitment or to gain acosss to network or user credentials Artlflclallnte llgem e AI AI ranges from Narrow AI systems which seek to execute specialized tasks such as speech recognition to General AI systems-perhaps still decades away-which aim to replicate many aspects of human cognition Implications of broader AI deployment include increased vulnerability to cyberattack difficulty in ascertaining 'attribution facifltation of advances in foreign weapon and intelligence systems the risk of accidents and reiSted liability issues and unemployment Although the United States leads AI research globally foreign state research in AI is growing The increased reliance on AI for autonomous decisionmaking is creating new viJinerabilities to cyberattacks and influence operations As we have already seen false data and unanticipated algorithm behaviors have caused significilnt fluctuations in the stock market because of the reliance on automated tredlng of financial instruments Efficiency and perfonnance benefitS can be derived from Increased reliance on AI systems in both civilian industries and national security as well as potential gains to cyberaecurity from automated computer network defense However AI systems are susceptible to a range of disruptive and deceptive tectics that might be difficult to anticipate or quickly underatend Efforts to mislead or compromise automated systems might create or enable further opportunities to disrupt or damage critical infrastructure or national security networks Foreign Data Science This field is becoming increasingly mature Foreign countries are openly purchasing acosss to published US research through aggregated publication indices and they are collecting social media and patent data to develop their own indices VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00017 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 5 here 20544 005 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 1 14 Augmented Reellty AR end VIrtual Reality VRJ AR and VR systems with three-dimensional imagery and audio user-friendly software end low price points are already on the market their aqoption will probably accelerate in 2016 AR provides users with additional communications scenarios e g by using virtual avatars as weD as acquisition of new data e g from facial recognition overlaid onto reality VR gives users experiences in man-made environments wholly sepereta from reality Protactlng lnfonnatlon Resources Integrity Future cyber operations will almost certainly Include an increased emphasis on changing or manipulating data to compromise its Integrity i e accuracy and reliability to affect decisionmaking raduce trust in systems or cause adverse physical effects Broader adoption of loT devices and Al-in settings such as pubUc utilities and health care-will only exacerbate these potential effects Russian cyber actors who post disinfonnatlon on commercial website might seek to alter online media as a means to influence public discourse and create confusion Chinese military doctrine outlines the use of cyber deception operations to conceal intentions modify storad data transmit false data manipulate the flow of information or influence public sentiments-aU to induce aiTOI'll and miscalculation in decisionmaking lnfrastnlctum Countries are becoming increasingly aware of both their own weaknesses and the asYmmetric offensive opportunities presented by systemic and persistent wlnerebilities In key infrastructure sectors including health care energy fmance telecommunications transportation and wetar For example the US health care sector is rapidly evolving in weys never before imagined and the cross-networking of personal data devices electronic health records medical devices and hospital networks might play unanticipated roles in patient outcomes Such risks are only halghtenad by largescale theft of health care data and the internationalization of critical US supply chains and service infrastructure A major US network equipment manufacturer acknowledged last December that someone repeatedly gained access to its network to change source code in order to make its products' default encryption breakable The intruders also introduced a default password to enable undetected access to some target networks worldwide lnteropenrbllity Most governments are exploring weys to exert sovereign control over information accessible to and used by their citizens and are placing additional legal requirements on companies as they seek to balance security privacy and economic concerns We assess that many countries will implement new laws and technologies to c enSor Information decrease online anonymity and localize data within their national borders Although these regulations will restrict freedoms online and Increase the operating costs for US companies abroad they will probably not introduce obstacies that threaten the functionality of the Internet Identity Advances In the capabilities of many countries to exploit large data sets almost certainly increase the lntalllgence value of collecting bulk data and have probably contributed to Increased targeting of personally Identifiable Information Commercial vendors who aggregate the bulk of digitized information about persons wiD Increasingly collect analyze and seD it to both foreign and domestic customers We assess that countries are exploiting personal data to inform a variety of counterintelligence operations VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00018 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 6 here 20544 006 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 2 15 Accountability lnfonnation security professionals will continue to make progress in attnbuting cyber operetioris and tying events to previously identifl8d infrastructure or tools that might enable rapid attribution in some cases However improving offensive tredecraft the use of proxies and the creation of cover organizations will hinder timely high-confidence attribution of responsibility for state-sponsored cyber operations Resttaint Many actors remain undeterred from conducting reconnaissance espionage and even attacks in cyberspace because of the relatively low costa of entry the perceived payoff and the lack of significant consequences Moscow and Beijing among others view offensive cyber capabilities es an important geoatrategic tool and will almost certainly continue developing them while simultaneously discussing normative fram rks to restrict such use Diplomatic efforts in the past three years heve created the foundation for establishing limits on cyber operations and the norma articulated in a 2015 report of the UN Group of Governmental Experts suggest that countries are more likely to commit to Hmltations on what cyber operations can target than to support bans on the development of offensive capabilities or on specific means of cyber intervention For example in 2015 followlllQ a US-Chinese bilateral agreement G-20 leaders agreed that that no country should conduct or sponsor cyber espionage for the purpose of commercial gain Leading Threat Actors Russia Russia is assuming a more assertive cyber posture baaed on its willingness to target critical infrastructure systems and conduct espionage operations even when detected and under increased public scrutiny Russian eyber operations are likely to target US interests to support several strategic Objectives intelligence gathering to support Russian decisionmaking in the Ukraine and Syrian crises influence operations to support military and political objectives and continuing preparation of the cyber environment for future contingencies China China continues to heve sucoess in cyber espionage against the US Government our allies and US companies Beijing also selectively uses cyberattacks against targets it believes threaten Chinese domestic stability or regime legitimacy We will monitor compliance with China's September 2015 commitment to refrain from conducting or knowingly supporting cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property with the intent of providing competitive advanli ge to companies or commercial sectors Private-sector security eXPBrts have Identified limited ongoing cyber activity from China but heve not verified state sponsorship or the use of exfiltrated date for commercial gain Iran Iran used cyber espionage propaganda and attacks in 2015 to support Its security priorities influence events and counter threats-including against US allies in the region NOifh Korea North Korea probably remains capable and willing to launch disruptive or destructive cyberattacks to support Its political objectives South Korean officials heve concluded that North Korea was probably responsible for the compromise and disclosure of data from a South Korean nuclear plant Nonstate Acto 3 Terrorists continue to use the Internet to organize recruit spread propaganda collect intelligance raise funds and coordinate operations In a new tactic ISIL actors targeted and raieased sensitive information about US mirltary personnel in 2015 in an effort to spur lone-wolf' attacks Criminals develop and use sophisticated cyber tools for a variety of purposes such as theft extortion and VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00019 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 7 here 20544 007 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 3 16 facDitation of other criminal activities such as drug traffiCking Ransomware' designed to block user access to their own data sometimes by encrypting it is becoming a particularly effective and popular tool for extortion for which few options for recovery are available Criminal tools and malware are increasingly being discovered on state and local government networks TERRORISM The United States and its allies are facing a challenging threat environment in 2016 Sunni violent extremism has been on an upward trajectory sinca the late 1970s end has more groups members and safa havens than at any other point in history At the same time Shia violent extremists will probably deepen sectarian tensions in response to real and perceived threats from Sunni violent extremists and to advance Iranian influence The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIL has become the preeminent terrorist threat because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq its branches and emerging branches in other countries and Its increasing ability to direct and Inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world ISIL's narrative supports jihadlst recruiting attracts others to travel to Iraq and Syria draws individuals and groups to declare allegiance to ISIL and justifies attacks across the globe The ISIL-directed November 2015 attacks in Paris and ISIL-Sinai's claim of responsibility for the late October downing of a Russian airliner in the Sinai underscore these dynamics Al-Qa'ida's affifiates have proven resilient and are positioned to make gains in 2016 despite counterterrorism pressure that has largely degraded the network's leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan They will continue to pose a threat to local regional and even possibly global interests as demonstrated by the January 2015 attack on French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo by individuats linked to ai-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula AQAP Other Sunni terrorist groups relain the ability to attract recruits and resources The United States will almost certainly remain at least a rhetorically important enemy for most violent extremists in part due to past and ongoing US military political and economic engagement overseas Sunni violent extremists will probably continually plot against US Interests oversees A smaller number will attempt to overcome the logistical challenges associated with conducting attacks on the US homeland The July 2015 attack against military facilities in Chattanooga and December 2015 attack in San Bernardino demonstrate the threat that homegrown violent extremists HVEs also pose to the homeland In 2014 the FBI arrested approximately one dozen US-based ISIL supporters In 2015 that number increased to approximately five dozen anrests These individuals were amssted for a variety of reasons predominantly for attempting to provide material support to ISIL US-based HVEs will probably continue to pose the most significant Sunni terrorist threat to the US homeland in 2018 The perceived success of attacks by HVEs In Europe and North America such as those in Chattanooga and San Bernardino might motivate others to replicate opportunistic attacks with little or no wsming diminishing our ability to detect terrorist operational planning and readiness ISIL involvement in homeland attack activity will probably continue to involve those who draw inspiration from VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00020 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 8 here 20544 008 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 4 17 the group's highly sophisticated media without direct guidance from ISIL leadership and individuals in the United states or abroad who receive direct guidance and specific direction from ISIL members or leaders ISIL's global appeal continues to inspire indMduals in countries outside Iraq and Syria to travel to join the group More than 36 500 foreign fighters-including at least 6 600 from Western countries--have traveled to Syria from more than1 00 countries since the conflict began in 2012 Foreign fighters who have trained in Iraq and Syria might potentially leverage skills and experience to plan and execute attacks in the West Involvement of returned foreign fighters in terrorist plotting increeses the effectiveness and lethality of terrorist attacks according to academic studies A prominent example is the November 2015 attacks in Paris in which the plotters included European foreign fighters returning from Syria ISlL's branches continue to build a strong global network that alms to advance the group's goals and often works to exacerbate existing sectarian tensions In their locelities Some of these branches will also plan to stn'ke at Western targets such as the downing of a Russian airliner in October by ISIL's selfproclaimed province In Egypt In Libya the group is entrenched in Surt and along the coastal areas has varying degrees of presence across the country and is well positioned to expand territory under its control in 2016 ISIL will seek to influence previously established groups such as Boko Harem in Nigeria to emphasize the group's ISIL Identity and fulfiU its religious obligations to the ISIL 'caliphate o Other tarrorists and insurgent groups will continue to exploit week governance insecurity and economic and political fragiHty in an effort to expand their areas of influence and provide safe havens for violent extremists particularly in conflict zones Sunnl violent extremist groups ara increasingly joining or Initiating insurgencies to advance their local and transnational objectives Many of these groups are increasingly capable of conducting effective insurgent campaigns given their membership growth and accumulation of large financial and materiel caches This trend increasingly blurs the lines between insurgent and terrorist groups as both aid locel fighters leverage safe havens and pursue attacks against US and other Western Interests No single paradigm explains how terrorists become Involved In lnsurgancies Some groups like ISIL In Syria and ai-Qa'ida In the Islamic Maghreb AQIM in Mall have worked with 1ocat militants to Incite insurgencies Others like Boko Haram are the sole Instigators and represent the primary threat to their respective homeland's security SliD others Including ai-Shabaab are the primary beneficiaries of an lnsurgeney started by others Finally other groups such as core ai-Qa'ida have taken advantage of the relative safe haven in areas controlled by insurgent groups to build capabilities and alliances without taking on a primary leadership role in the local conflict Although ai-Qa'ida's presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been significantly degraded it aspires to attack the US and its allias In Yemen the proven capability of AQAP to advance external plots during periods of instability suggests that leadership losses and challenges from the Iranian-backed Huthi lnsurgeney will not deter its efforts to strike the West Amid this conflict AQAP has made territorial gains In Yemen including the seizure of military bases in the country's largest province AI-Qa'ida nodes in Syria Pakistan Afghanistan and Turkey are also dedicating resources to planning attacks AI-Shabaab ai-Qaida's affiliate in East Africa continues its violent insurgeney in southern and central Somalia despite losses of territory and influence and conflict among senior leaders VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00021 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 9 here 20544 009 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 5 18 Iran-the foremost state sponsor of terrorism-continues to exert its influence in regional crises in the Middle East through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force ORGC-QF Its terrorist partner Lebanese Hizballah and proxy groups It also provides military and economic aid to its allies in the region Iran and Hlzballah remain a continuing terrorist threat to US interests and partners worldwide Terrorists will almost certainly continue to benefit in 2016 from a new generation of recruits proficient in infonnatlon technology social media and online research Some terrorists will look to use these technologies to increase the speed of their communications the availability of their propaganda and ability to collaborate with new partners They will easily take advantage of widely available free encryption technology mobile-messaging applicstions the dark web and virtual environments to pursue their objectives Long-tenn economic political and social problems as well as technological changes will contribute to the terrorist threat worldwide A record attlng 60 miUion Internally displaced persons lOPs and refugees as of 2014-one half of whom are children according to the United Nations-will stress the cspacity of host nations already dealing with problems relating to assimilation and possibly make displaced populations targets for recruitment by violent extremists Among Sunni violent extremist groups ISIL Is probably most proficient at harnessing social media to disseminate propaganda and solicit recruits among a broad audience It is likely to continue these activities in 2016 by using videos photos and other propaganda glorifying life under ISIL rule and promoting the group's military successes In addition violent extremist supporters will probably continue to pubfiCize their use of encrypted massaging applications on social media to let aspiring violent extremists know that secure avenues are available by which they csn communicate The acute and enduring nature of demographic economic political social and technological factors contribute to the motivation of Individuals and groups and their participation in violent extremist activities These factors ensure that terrorism will remain one of several primary national security challenges for the United States In 2016 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND PROLIFERATION Nation-state efforts to deveiap or acquire weapons of mass destruction WMO their delivery systems or their underlying technologies constitute a major threat to the security of the United States its deployed troops and allies Use of chemical weapons in Syria by both state and nonstate actors demonstrates that the threat of WMD is real Biological and chemical materials and technOlogies almost always dual usa mova easily in the globalized economy as do personnel with the scientific expertise to design and use them The latest discoveries in the life sciences also diffuse rapidly around the globe North Konsa Developing WMD-Appllcsble Capabilities North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs will continue to pose a serious threat to US interests and to the security environment in East Asia in 2016 North Korea's export of ballistic missiles and associated materials to several countries including Iran and Syria and its assistance to Syria's VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00022 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 10 here 20544 010 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 6 19 construction of a nuclear reactor destroyed in 2007 illustrate its wiltingness to proliferate dangerous technologies We judge that North Korea conducted a nuclear test on 6 January 2016 that It claimed was a successful test of a 'hydrogen bomb o Although wa are continuing to evaluate this event the low yield of the test is not consistent with a successful test of a thermonuclear device In 2013 following North Korea's third nuclear test Pyongyang announced its intention to 'refurbish and restart Its nuclear facilities to include the uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon and its graphite-moderated plutonium production reactor which was shut down in 2007 We assess that North Korea hes followed through on Its announcement by expanding Its Yongbyon enrichment faciflly and restarting the plutonium production reactor We further assess that North Korea has been operating the reactor long enough so that It could begin to recover plutonium from the reactor's spent fuel within a matter of weeks to months North Korea has also expanded the size and sophistication of Its ballistic missile forces-from closerange ballistic missiles to intercontinental ballistic missilea QCBMs -and continues to conduct test launches In May 2015 North Korea claimed that it succassfully tested a ballistic missile from a submarine Pyongyang is also committed to developing a long-range nuclear-armed missile that is capable of posing a direct threat to the United States It has publicly displayed Its KN08 road-mobile ICBM on muftlple occasions We assess that North Korea has already taken initial steps toward fielding this system although the system has not been flight-tasted Although North Kof' tB issues officlef statements that include Its justification for building nuclear waapons and threats to use them as a defensive or retaliatory measure wa do not know the details of Pyongyang's nuclear doctrine or employment concapts We have long assessed that Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities are intended for daterrenca International prestige and coercive diplomacy China Modernizing Nuclear Forces The Chinese People's Liberation Army's PLA's has established a Rocket Force-replacing the longstanding Second Artillery Corps-and continues to modernize Its nuclear missile force by adding more survivable roed-mobile systems and enhancing Its silo-based systems This new generation of missiles is intended to ensure the viability of China's strategic deterrent by providing a second-strik8 capability In addition the PLA Navy continues to develop the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile SLBM and might produca additional JIN-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines The JINclass submarinee-armad with JL-2 SLBMs-will give the PLA Navy Its first long-range sea-based nuclear capability Ruaslan Cruise Missile VIolates the INF Treaty Russia has developed a ground-launched cruise missile that the United States has declared is in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forcas INF Treaty Russia has denied it is violating the INF Treaty In 2013 a senior Russian administration official stated publicly that tha world had changed sinca the INF Treaty was signed 1987 and noted that Russia was 'developing appropriate waapons systems' In light of the proliferation of Intermediate- and shorter-range ballistic missile t19chnologles around the world and Russian officials have mede statements In the past regarding the unfairness of a Treaty that prohibits VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00023 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 11 here 20544 011 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 7 20 Russia but not some of its neighbors from developing and processing ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 to 5 500 kilometers Chemical Weapons in Syria and Iraq We assess that Syria has not declared all the elements of its chemical weapons program to the Chemical Weapons Convention CWC Despite the creation of a speciaflzed team and months of work by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons OPCW to eddress gaps and inconsistencies in Syria's declaratipn numerous issues remain unresolved Moreover we continue to judge that the Syrian regime has used chemicals as a means of warfare since accession to the ewe in 2013 The OPCW Fact-Finding Mission has concluded that chlorine had been used on Syrian opposition forces in multiple incidents in 2014 and 2015 Helicopters-which only the Syrian regime possesses 'l tere used in several of these attacks We assess that nonstate actors in the region are also using chemicals as a means of warfare The OPCW investigation into an alleged ISIL atteck in Syria in August led it to conclude that at least two people were exposed to sulfur musterd We continue to track numerous allegations of ISIL's use of chemicals in attacks in Iraq and Syria suggesting that attacks might be widespreed Iran Adhering to Deal To Preserve Capabilities and Gain Sanctions Relief lren probably views the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA as a means to remove sanctions while preserving some of its nuclear capabilities as well as the option to eventually expand its nuclear infrastructure We continue to assess that Iran's overarching strategic goals of enhancing its security prestige and regional influence have led it to pursue capabilities to meet its nuclear energy and technotogy goals and give it the ability to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons If It chooses to do so Its pursuit of thase goals will dictate its level of adherence to the JCPOA over time We do not know whether lren will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons We also continue to assess that Iran does not face any insurmountable technical barriers to producing a nuclear weapon making Iran's political will the central issue Iran's implementation of the JCPOA however has extended the amount of time Iran would need to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a few months to about a year The JCPOA has also enhanced the transparency of Iran's nuclear actMties mainly through Improved access by the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA and investigative authorities under the Additional Protocol to its Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement As a result the international community is well postured to quickly detect changes to Iran's declared nuclear facilities designed to shorten the time Iran would need to produce fissile material Further the JCPOA provides tools for the IAEA to investigate possible breaches of prohibitions on specific R D activities that could contribute to the development of a nuclear weapon We judge that Tehran would choose ballistic missiles as its preferred method of delivering nuclear weapons If it buUds them Iran's ballistic missiles are inherently capable of delivering WMD and Tehran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East Iran's prog on space launch vehicles-along with its desire to deter the United States and lts allies-provides Tehran with the means and motivation to develop longer-range missiles including ICBMs VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00024 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 12 here 20544 012 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 8 21 Genome Editing Research In genome editing conducted by countries with different regulatory or ethical standards than those of Westem countries probably increases the risk of the creation of potentially harmful biological agents or products Given the broad distribution low cost and accelereted pace of development of this dual-use technology its deliberate or unintentional misuse might lead to far-reaching economic and national security impHcations Advances in genome editing in 2015 have compelled groups of high-profile US and European biologists to question unregulated editing of the human gennfine cells that are relevant for reproduction which might creete inheritable genetic changes Nevertheless researchers will probably continue to encounter challenges to achieve the desired outcome of their genome modifications in pert because of the technical limitations that are Inherent in available genome editing systems SPACE AND COUNTERSPACE Space Global T18nds Changes in the space sector will evolve more quickly in the next few years as innovation becomes more ubiquitous driven primarily by increased availability of technology and growing private company investment The number of space actors is proliferating with countries participating in space activities and more expected in the next few years New entrants from the private space sectorleversging lowering costs in aerospace technology and innovations in other technoiOI JY sectors such as big data analytics social media automation and additive manufacturing-will increase global access to spSCIHlllabled applications such as imaging maritime automatic identification system AIS weather lntemet and C011Jmunications so Military and Intelligence Foreign govemments will expand their use of space services-to include reconnaissance communications and position navigation and timing PNT -for military and intelligence purposes beginning to rival the advantages space-enabled services provide the United States Russia and China continue to improve the capabilities of their military and intelligence satellites and grow more sophisticated in their operations Russian military officials publicly tout their use of imaging and electronic-reconnaissance satellites to support military operations In Syria-revealing some of their sophisticated military uses of space services Countenlpace Threats to our use of military civil and commercial space systems will increase in the next few years as Russia and China progress in developing counterspace weapon systems to deny degrade or disrupt US space systems Foreign military leaders understand the unique advantages that space-based systems provide to the United States Russia senior leadership probably views countering the US space advantage as a critical component of warfighting Its 2014 Military Doctrine highlights at least three spece-enabled capabilities- global strike o the intention to station weapons in space o and strategic non-nuclear precision weapons -as main extemal military threats to the Russian Federation Russia and China are also employing more saphisticeted satellite operations and are probably testing dual-use technologies in space that could be applied to counterspace missions VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00025 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 13 here 20544 013 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 9 22 Deny and Disrupt We already face a global threat from electronic warfare systems capable of jamming satellite communications systems and global navigation space systems We assess that this technology will continue to proliferate to new acton and that our more advanced adversaries will continue to develop more sophisticated systems in the next few years Russian defanse officials acknowledge that they have deployed radar-imagery jammers and are developing laser weapons designed to blind US intelligence and ballistic missile defense satellites Destroy Russia and China continue to pursue weapons systems capable of destroying satellites on orbit placing US satellites at greater risk in the next few years China has probably made progress on the antisatellite missile system that it tested in July 2014 The Russian Duma officially recommended in 2013 that Russia resume research and development of an airborne antisatellite missile to 'be able to intercept absolutely everything that flies from space ' COUNTERINTELLIGENCE The United States will continue to face a complex foreign intelligence threat environment in 2016 We assess that the leading state intelligence threate to US interests will continue to be Russia and China based on their capabilities intent and broed operational scope Other states in South Asia the Near East East Asia and latin America will pose local and regional intelligence threats to US interests For example Iranian and Cuban intelligence and security services continue to view the United States as a primary threat Penetrating and influencing the US national declsionmaking apparatus and Intelligence Community will remain primary objectives for numerous foreign intelligence entities Additionally the targeting of national security information and proprietary information from US companies and research institutions involved with defense energy finance dual-use technology and 'other sensitive areas will remain a persistent threat to US interests Insiders who-disclose sensitive US Government information without authorization will remain a significant threat in 2016 The sophistication and availability of information technology that can be used for nefarious purposes exacerbate this threat both in terms of speed and scope of Impact Nonstate entities including international terrorist groups and transnational organized crime organizations will continue to employ and potentially improve their intelligence capabilities which include human cyber and technical means Like state intelligence services these nonstate entities recruit human sources and condUct physical and technical surveillance to facilitate their activities and avoid detection and capture VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00026 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 14 here 20544 014 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 10 23 TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME Some US Drug Threats Are Growing Transnational drug trafficking poses a strong and in many cases growing threat to the United States at home and to US security interests abroad Suppiies of some foreign-produced drugs in the United Stetes are rising and some criminals who market them are growing more sophistiCated o Mexican drug traffickers capitalizing on the strong US demand for heroin have increesed heroin production significantly since 2007 US border seizures nearly doubled between 2010 and 2014 Some Mexican trafficking groups-which collectively supply most of the heroin consumed in the United stetes- -nave mastered production of the white heroin preferred in eestem US cities and have been boosting overall drug potency by adding fentanyl Fentanyl which is 30 to 50 times more potent than heroin is sometimes used as an edulterent and mixed with lower-grade heroin to increase its effects or mixed with diluents and sold as synthetic heroin with or without the buyers' knowledge o Mexican traffickers have probably increased their production of the stimulant methamphetamine for the US market US border seizures of the drug rose by nearly half bf ween 2013 and 2014 o Traffickers in the Andean countries have increased their manufacture of cocaine Producers in Colombia-from which most US cocaine origina ncreesed output by nearly a third in 2014 over the prior year Cocaine output will probably rise again in 2016 as previously planted coca crops fully mature o US availability of some new psychoactive substences--eo-caUed designer drugs typically produced in Asia-has been increasing UN scientists have identified more then 500 unique substances Transnational Organized Crime Groups Target Vulnerable States Transnational organized crime groups will pose a persistent end at limes sophisticated threat to the wealth health and security of people around the globe Criminal groups' untaxed and unregulated enterprises drain state resources crowd out legitimate commerce increasa official corruption and impede economic competitiveness and fair trade On occasion transnational organized crime groups threaten countries' security spur increases in social violence or otherwise reduce govemability o Profit-minded criminals generally do not seek the reins of political power but rather to suborn co-opt or bully government officials in order to create environments in which criminal enterprise can thrive o Foreign-based transnational criminals are increasingly using online information systems to breach sovereign borders virtually without the need to send criminal operatives abroad to advance illlcit businesses o Organized crime and rebel groups in Africa end elsewhere are likely to increasa their involvement in wildlife trafficking to fund political ectivitles enhance political influence and purchase weapons Illicit trade in wildlife timber and marine resources endangers the environment threatens good VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00027 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 15 here 20544 015 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 11 24 governance and border security in fragile regions and destabilizes communities whose economic well-being depends on wildlife for biodiversity and ecotourism Increased demand for ivory and mino hom in East Asia has triggered unprecedented increases in poaching in Sub-Saharan Africa Human traffiCking exploits and abused individuals and challenges international security Human kers leverage corrupt officials porous borders and lax enforcement to orchestrate their Ulicit trade This exploitation of human lives for profit continues to occur in every country in the world-undermining the rule of law and corroding legitimate institutions of government and commerce Trafficking in persons hes become a lucrative source of revenue for transnational organized crime groups and terrorist organizations and is estimated to produce tens of billions of dollars annually For axampla terrorist or aimed groups-such es ISIL the Lord's Resistance Army and Boko Haram-engage In kidnapping for the purpose of sexual slavery sexual exploitation and forced labor These activities might also contribute to the funding and sustainment of such groups We assess that the ongoing global migration crlses-e post-WWII record 60 million refugees and internally displaced persons-will fuel an Increase in the global volume of human traffiCking victims es men women and children undertake risky migration ventures and fall prey to sex trafficking forced labor debt bondage and other trafficking crimes This continuing rise in global displacement and dangerous migration both forced and opportunistic movements within countries and across national borders will probably allow criminal groups and terrorist organiZations to exploit vulnerable populations ECONOMICS AND NATURAL RESOURCES Global economic growth wUI probably ramain subdued in pert because of the decelaration of China's economy During 2015 preliminary figures indicate that worldwide GOP growth slipped to 3 1 percent down from 3 4 percent the previous year afthough advanced economies es a group enjoyed their strongest GOP growth since 2010 at nearly 2 percent However developing economies which were already dealing with breed and sharp commodity-price declines that began in 2014 saw the first nat capital outflows to developed countries since the late 1980s GOP growth for these economies was 4 percent in 2015 the lowest since 2009 The International Monetary Fund IMF is forecasting a slight growth uptum in 2016 but downgraded its forecast in January for both develop d and developing economies Adverse shocks such as financial instability in emerging markets a steeper-than-expected slowdown in China's growth or renewed uncertainty about Greece's economic situation might prevent the predicted gradual increase in global growth ' Macroeconomic Stability Continued solid performance by the United States and the resumPtion of growth for many European states even es the region continues to wreStie with the Greek debt crisis will probably help boost growth rates for developed economies However increasing signs of a sustained deceleration of Chinese economic growtlr-particularly in sectors that Ira the most raw-material intensive-contributed to a continued decline in energy and commodity prices worldwide In 2015 Emerging markets and developing countries' difficulties were compounded by the declines In foreign investment inflows and increases in VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00028 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 16 here 20544 016 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 12 25 resident capital outflows The prospect of higher growth and interest rates in the United States is spurring net capital outflows from these countries estimated to be more than $700 billion in 2015 compared to an average yearty inflow of more than $400 billion from 2009 to 2014 The globe slowdown in trede is also contributing to a more difficult 4 10011omic environment for many developing economies and might worsen if efforts to advance trede liberalization through the Wortd Trade Organization WTO and regional trede deals stall Energy and Commodities Weak energy and commodity prices have bean particularty hard on key exporters in Latin America Argentina and Brazil experienced negative growth and their weakened currencies contributed to domestic inflation A steeply declining economy in Venezuela-the result of the oil-price decline and years of poor economic policy and profligate government spending-will leave caracas struggling to avoid default in 2016 Similarty in Africa declining oil revenues and past mismanegement have contributed to Angolan and Nigerian fiscal problems currency strains and deteriorating external belances Falling prices have also forced commodity-dependent exporters such as Ghana Liberia and zambia to make sharp budget cuts to conteln defiCits Persian Guif oil exporters which generally have more substantial financial reserves have nonetheless seen a sharp increase in budget deficits Declining energy prices and substantial increases in North American production have also discouraged initiatives to develop new resources and expand existing projects---including in Brazil Canada Iraq and Saudi Arabia They typically take YEI I S to complete potentially setting the stege for shorttalls in coming years when demand recovers Arctic Diminishing sea ice is creating increased economic opportunities in the region and simultaneously raising Arctic nations' concerns about safety and the environment Harsh weather and longer-term economic stakes have encouraged cooperation among the countries bordering the Arctic As polar ice recedes and resource extraction technology improves however economic and security concerns will raise the risk of increased competition between Arctic and non-Arctic nations over eocess to sea routes and resources Sustained low oil prices would reduce the attractiveness of potential Arctic energy resources Russia will almost certainly continue to bolster its military presence along its northern coastline to improve its perimatar defanse and control over its exclusive economic zone EEZ It will also almost certainly continue to seek lntemationel support for Its extended continental shelf claim and its right to manage ship traffic within its EEZ Moscow might become more willing to disavow established international processes or organizations concerning Arctic governance and act unilaterally to protect these interests if RussianWestern relations deteriorate further HUMAN SECURITY Environmental Rlaks and Climate Change Extreme weather climate change environmental degradation related rising demand for food and water poor policy responses and inadequate criticellnfrastructure will probebly exacelbate--end potentially VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00029 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 17 here 20544 017 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 13 26 spark-i Oiitical instability adverSe health conditions and humanitarian crises in 2016 Several of these developments especially those in the Middle East suggest that environmental degradation might become a more common source for Interstate tensions We assess that almost all of the 194 countries that adopted the global climate agreement at the UN climate conference in Paris in December 2015 view it as an ambitious and long-lasting framework The UN World Meieorologlcal Organization WMO report attributes extreme weather events In the tropics and sub-tropical zones in 20151o both climate change and an exceptionally strong El Nillo that will probably peniiat through spring 2016 An Increase in extreme weather events is likely to occur throughout this period based on WMO reporting Human activities such as the generation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use have contributed to extreme weather events including more frequent and severe tropical cyclones heavy rainfall droughts and heat waves according to a November 2015 academic report with contributions from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmcispheric Administration NOAA Scientists have more robust evidence to identify the influence of human activity on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes o The Paris climate change agreement establishes a political expectation for the first time that all countries will address climate change The response to the deal hes been largely positive among government officials and nongovernmental groups probably because the agreement acknowledges the need for unlverssl action to combat climate change along with the development needs of lowerincome countries However an independent team of climate analysts and the Executive Secretary of the UN climate forum have stated that countries' existing national plans to address climate change will only limit temperature rise to 2 7 degrees Celsius by 2100 Health Infectious d'ISeases and vulnerabilities in the global supply chain for medical cauntenneasures will continue to pose a danger to US national security in 2016 Land-use changes will increase animal-tohuman interections and globalization will raise the potential for rapid cross-regional spread of disease while the international community remains ill prepared to collectively coordinate and respond to disease threats Influenza viruses coronaviruses such as the one causing Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and hemorrhagic fever viruses such as Ebola are examples of Infectious disease agents that are passed from animals to humans and can quickly pose regional or global threats Zlka virus an emerging infectious disease threat first detected in the Western Hemisphere in 2014 is projected to cause up to 4 milrron cases in 2016 It will probably spread to virtually every country in the hemisphere Although the virus is predominantly a mild illness and no vaccine or treatment is available the Zlka virus might be Hnked to devastating birth defects in children whose mothers were infected during pregnancy Many developed and developing nations remain unable to implement coordinated plans of action to prevent infectious disease outbreaks strengthen global disease surveillance and response rapidly share information develop diagnostic tools and countanneasures or maintain the safe transit of personnel and materials o Human encroachment into animal habitats Including clearing land for fenn use and urbanization is recognized as a contributing factor in the emergence of new infectious diseases The populations of Asia and Africa are urbanizing and growing faster than those of any other region according to the VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00030 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 18 here 20544 018 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 14 27 UN Emerging diseases against which humans have no preexisting Immunity or effective therapies pose significant risks of becoming pandemics Atrocities and Instability Risks of atrocities large-scale violence and regime-threatening instability will remain elevated in 2016 A vicious cycle of conflict resulting from weak govemance the rise of violent non-stele actors insufficient international capacity to respond to these complex challenges and an increese in global migration all contribute to global sacurity risks Weak global growth particularly resulting from the cesceding effect of slower Chinese growth that will hurt commodity exporters will also exacerbate risk o Regional spillover will probably spraad For example the long-term impact of civil war in Syria is nsinforcing secterien diffensnces in Iraq and the flight of Syrians to Turkey Jordan and Lebanon and then onward to Europe is sowing regional tensions and straining national governments o As of 2015 the central goverriments of seven states ans unable to project authority and provide goods and services throughout at least 50 percent of their nsspective territory this number is the largest at any point in the past 60 years o The risk of waning support for universal human rights norms is increasing as authoritarian regimes push back against human rights in practice and in principle Global Displacement Europe will almost certainly continue to face nscord levels of arriving refugees and other migrants in 2016 unless the drivers causing this historic movement toward the continent change significantly in 2016 which we judge is unlikely Migration and displacement will also probably be en issue within Asia and Africe as well as the Americas In total about 60 million people are displaced worldwide according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees UNHCR These 60 million consist of approximately 20 million nsfugees 38 million internally displaced persons lOPs and approximstely 2 million stateless persons also according to UNHCR statistics o Wars weak border controls and nslatively easy and affordable access to routes and Information ens driving this historic increase in mobility and displacement The growing scope and scele of human displacement will probably continue to strain the nssponse capacity of the international community and drive a nscord level of humanitarian requests At the same time host and transit countries will struggle to develop effective responses and in some cases manage domestic fears of terrorists exploiting migrant flowa after the Paris attacks In November 2015 In 2015 the UN nscelved less than half of its requested funding for global assistance suggesting that the UN's 2016 request is also likely to be underfunded VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00031 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 19 here 20544 019 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 15 28 REGIONAL THREATS Emerging trends suggest that geopolitical competition among the major powers is increasing in ways that challenge intemational norms and institutions Russia in particular but also China seek greater influence over their respective neighboring regions and want the United States to refrain from actions they perceive as Interfering with their interests-which will perpetuate the ongoing geopolitical and security competition around the peripheries of Russia and China to include the major sea lanes They will almost certainly eschew direct military conflict with the United States in favor of contests at lower levels of competition-to include the use of diplomatic and economic coercion propaganda cyber intrusions proxies and other indirect applications of military power-that intentionally blur the distinction between peace and wartime operations Although major power competition is increasing the geopolitical environment continues to offer opportunities for US cooperation In addition despite the prospect for increased competition the major powers including Russia and China wiR have Incentives to continue to cooperate wi h the United States on issues of shered interest that cannot be solved unilaterally A Mure lntemational environment defined by a mix of competition and cooperetion among major powers however will probably encourage ad-hoc approaches to global challenges that undennlne existing lntemational institutions EAST ASIA China China wiR continue to pursue an active foreign policy-especially within the Asia Pacific-highlighted by a finn stance on competing territorial claims in the East and South China Seas relations with Taiwan and its pursuit of economic engagement across East Asia Regional tension will continue as China pursues construction at its expanded outposts in the South China Sea and because competing claimants might pursue actions that others perceive as infringing on their sovereignty Despite the meating between China's and Taiwan's Presidents in November 2015 Chinese leaders will deal with a new president from a different party in Taiwan following elections in January China wiR also pursue efforts atmed at fulfilling its one Belt One Road initiative to expand China's economic role and outreach across Asia China will continue to incrementally Increase its global presence Mileposts have included symbolic and substantive developments such as the IMF's decision in November 2016 to Incorporate the renmlnbl into its Special Drawing Rights currency basket and China's opening of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in early 2016 China will increasingly be a factor in global responaes to emerging problems as Dlustreted by China's participation in UN peacekeeping operations WHO's Ebola response and infrastructure construclion in Africe and Pakistan Amid new economic challenges Chinese leaders are pursuing an ambitious agenda of economic legal and military refonns aimed at bolstering the country's long-tenn economic growth potential improving VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00032 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 20 here 20544 020 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 16 29 government efficiency and accountability and strengthening the control of the Communist Party The scope and scale of the refonn agem ta-- oupled with an ongoing anti-corruption campaign-might increase the potential for internal friction within China's ruling Communist Party Additionally China's leaders who have declared slower economic growth to be the 'new nonnal ' will nonethaless face pressure to stabilize growth at levels that still support strong job creation Southeast Asia Regional integration via the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN made gains in 2015 with the establishment of the ASEAN Community However ASEAN cohesion on economic and security issues will continue to face challenges stemming from differing development levels among ASEAN members and their wrying threat perceptions of China's regional ambitions and assertiveness in the South China Sea ' Democracy in many Southeast Asian nations remains fragile ElitEIS-f'ather than the populace-retain a significant level of control and often shape govemanca reforms to benefit their Individual interests rather than to promote democratic velues Corruption and cronyism continua to be rampant in the region and the rising threat of ISIL might provide some governments with a new rationale to not only address the terrorist threat but also curb opposition movements like some leaders in the region did in the post 9 11 environment The new National League for Democracy-led government in Burma is poisad to continue the country's democratic transition procass but given its lack of governing experienca the Ieeming curve will be steep The Burmese' constitution also ensures that the mUitary will retain a significant level of power in the government hampering the NLD to put its own stamp on the ongoing peaca procass In Thailand the military-led regime is positioned to remain in power through 2017 North Korea Sinca taking the helm of North Korea In December 2011 Kim Jong Un has further solidified his position es the unitary leader and final decision authority through purges executions and leedershlp shuffles Kim and the regime have publicly emphasized-and codified-North Korea's focus on advancing its nuclear weapons program developing the country's troubled economy end improving the livelihood of the North Korean people while maintaining the tenets of a command economy Despite efforts at diplomatic outreach Kim continues to challenge the international community with provocative and threatening behavior in pursuit of his goals as prominently demonstrated in the November 2014 cyberattack on Sony the August 2015 inter-Korean confrontation spurred by the North's placament of landmines that injured two South Korean soldiers and the fourth nuclear test in January 2016 RUSSIA AND EURASIA Russia Moscow's more assertive foreign policy approach evident in Ukraina and Syria will have far-reaching effects on Russia's domestic politics economic development and military modernization efforts VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00033 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 21 here 20544 021 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 17 30 President Vladimir Putin has sustained his popular approval at or naar record highs for nearly two years after illegally annexing Crimea Nevertheless the Kremtin's fears of mess demonstration remain high and the government will continue to rely on repressive tactics to defuse what it sees as potential catalysts for protests in Russia The Kreinlin's fear of instability and its effo ts to contain it will probably be especially acute before the September 2016 Duma election The Russian economy will continue to shrink as a result of longstanding structural problems-made worse by low energy prices and economic sanctions-and entered into recession in 2015 A consensus forecast projects that GOP will contract by 3 8 percent in 2015 and will probably decline between 2-3 percent In 2016 if oil prices remain around $40 per barrel or only 0 6 percent if oil returns to $50 per barrel Real wages declined throughout most of 2015 and the poverty rate and inflation have also worsened We assess that Putin will continue to try to use the Syrian conflict and calls for cooperation egainst ISIL to promote Russia's Great Power status and end its international isolation Moscow's growing concern about ISIL and other extremists has led to direct intervention on the side of Bashar ai-Asad's regime and efforts to achieve a political resolution to the Syrian conflict on Russia's terms Since the terrorist attacks in Paris and over the Sinai Russia has redoubled Its calls for a broader anti-terrorism coalition Meanwhila growing Turldsh-Russlan tensions since Turkey's shootdown of a Russian jet in November 2015 raise the specter of miscalculation and escalation Despite Russia's economic slowdown the Kremlin remains intent on pursuing an assertive foreign policy in 2016 Russia's willingness to covertly use military and paramilitary forces in a neighboring state continues to cause anxieties in states along Russia's periphery to include NATO allies Levels of violence in eastern Ukraine have decreased but Moscow's objectives In Ukram-rtleinteining long-term Influence over Kylv and frustrating Ukraine's attempts to integrate into Western institutions-will probably remain unchanged in 2016 Since the crisis began in Ukraine in 2014 Moscow has redoubled Its efforts to reinforce Its influence in Eurasia Events in Ukraine raised Moscow's perceived stakes for increasing its presence in the region to prevent future regime change in the former Soviet republics and for accalarating a shift to a mulitpolar world in which Russia is the uncontested regional hegemon In Eurasia Moscow will therefore continue to push for greater regional integration raising pressure on neighboring slates to follow the example of Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union Moscow's military foray into Syria marks Its first use of significant expeditionary combat power outside the post-soviet space in decades Its intervention underscores both the ongoing and substantial improvements in Rusalan military capabilities and the Kremtin's confidence in usfng them as a tool to advance foreign policy goals Despite its economic difficulties Moscow remains committed to modernizing its mirltary Russia continues to take information warfare to a new level working to fan anti-US and anti-Western sentiment both within Russia and globally Moscow will continue to publish false and misleading information in an effort to discredit the West confuse or distort events that threaten Russia's image undercut consensus on Russia and defend Russia's role as a responsible and indispensable global power VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00034 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 22 here 20544 022 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 18 31 Ukraine Belarus and Moldova The implementation tlmeline for the Minsk agreements has been extended through 2016 although opposition from Ukraine Russia and the separatists on key remaining Minsk obligations might make progress slow and difficult in 2016 Sustained violence along the Line of Contact delineating the separatist-held areas will probably continue to complicate a political settlement and the potential for escalation remains Ukraine has made progress in its reform efforts and its moves to bolster tias to Western institutions Ukraine will continue to face serious challenges however including sustaining progress on key reforms 2nd passing constitutional amendments-required under the Minsk agreements to devolve political powar and fiscal authority to the regions Belarus continues its geopolitical balancing act attempting to curry favor with the Wast without antagonizing Russia President Lukashenko released several high-profile political prisoners in August 2015 and secured reelection to a fifth term in October 2015 without cracking down on the opposition as he has in previous elections These developments prompted the EU and the United States to implement temporary sanctions relief providing a boost to a Belarusian economy Moldova facas a turbulent year In 2016 Popular discontent over government corruption and misrule continues to reverberate after a banking scandal sparked large public protests and political infighting brought down a government coalition of pro-Europaan parties in October 2015 Continued unrest Is likely The breakawey pro-Russian region is also struggling economically and will remain dependent on Russian support The Caucasus and Central Asia Even as Georgia progresses with reforms Georgian politics will almost carlainly be volatile as political competition increases Economic challenges are also likely to become a key political vulnerability for the government before the 2016 elections Rising frustration among Georgia's elites and the public with the slow pace of Western integration and increasingly effective Russian propaganda raise the prospect that Tbilisi might slow or suspend efforts toward greater Euro-Atlantlc integration Tensions with Russia will remain high and we assess that Moscow will raise the pressure on Tbilisi to abandon closer EU and NATO lias Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the separatist region of Nagomo-Karabakh remained high in 2015 Baku's sustained military buildup coupled with declining economic conditions In Azerbaijan are raising the potential that the conflict will escalate in 2016 Azerbaijan's aversion to publicly relinquishing its ciaim to Nagomo-Karabakh proper and Armenia's reluctance to give up territory it controls will continue to complicele a peaceful resolution Central Asian states remain concerned about the rising threat of extremism to the stability of their countries particularly in light of a reduced Coalition presence in Afghanistan Russia shares these concerns and is likelY to use the threat of instability in Afghanistan to increase its Involvement in Central Asian security affairs However economic challenges stemming official mismanagement low commodity prices declining trade and remitlances associated with Russia's weakening economy and from VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00035 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 23 here 20544 023 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 19 32 ethnic tensions and political repression are likely to present the most significant instability threat to these countries EUROPE Key Partners European govemments'will face continued political economic and security challeng deriving from mass migration to Europe terrorist threats a more assertive Russia and slow economic recovery Differences among national leaders over how best to confront the challenges are eroding support for deeper EU integration and will bolster backing for populist leaders who favor national prerogatives over Eu-wide remedial strategies The European Commission expects 1 5 million migrants to arrive in Europe in 2016--en influx that is prompting European officials to focus on improving border security particularly at the Schengen Zone's external borders and putting the free movement of people within the EU at risk Several European governments are using military forces il1 domestic security roles The European Commission has warned against drawing a link between terrorists and refugees but populist and far-right leaders throughout Europe are preying on voters' security fears by highlighting the potential dangers of accepting migrants fieaing war end poverty Some EU leaders are citing the November 2015 terrorist attecks in Paris to justify erecting fences to stem the flow of people European countries will remain active and steadfast allies on the range of national security threats that face both the United Stetes end Europ -from energy and climate change to countering violent extremism and promoting democracy Although the majority of NATO allies have successfully halted further declines in defense spending European mil ary modernization efforts will take several years before marked improvement begins to show Europe also continues to insist on full implementation of the Minsk agreement to stop violence in Ukraine However European governments differ on the proper extent of engagement with Moscow Europe's economic growth which the EU projects will be moderate could falter if emerging market economies slow further which would decrease the demand for European exports The EU continues to struggle to shake off the extended effects of Its economic recession with lingering worries over high unemployment wesk demand and lagging productivity Greece also remains a concern for the EU The agreement betwesn Greece and Its creditors is an important step forward for restoring trust among the partias and creating the conditions for a path forward for Greece within the Eurozone Developing the details of the agreement and Its full implementation remain challenges The Balkans Ethnic nationariSITl and wesk Institutions in the Balkans remain enduring threats to stability Twenty years after the end of the Bosnian War and the signing of the Dayton Agreement Bosnle and Herzegovina VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00036 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 24 here 20544 024 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 20 33 remains cuHuraily and administratively divided weighed down by a barely functional and inefficient bureaucracy The country one of Europe's poorest has endured negative GOP growth since the 2008 international financial crisis and is raiiant on the support of international institutions including the IMF Youth unamployment estimated at 60 percent is the world's highest Kosovo has made progress toward full muKiathnic democracy aKhough tensions between Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs remain In Macedonia an ongoing political crisis and concerns about redicaiization among ethnic Albanian Muslims threatens to aggravate already-tense relations between ethnic majority Macadonians and the country's minority Albanians fifteen years after a violent interethnic conflict between the two groups ended Social tensions in the region might also be exacerbated if the Western Balkans becomes an unwilling host to significant migrant populations Turkey Turkey remains a partner in countering ISIL and minimizing foreign fighter flows Ankara will continue to see the Kurdistan Workers' Party PKK as its number one security threat and will maintain military and political pressure on the PKK as well as on the Damocretic Union Party PYD and its armed affiliate People's Protection Units YPG which Turkey equates with the PKK Turkey is extremely concernad about the increasing influence of the PYD and the YPG along its borders seeing them as a threat to its territorial security and its efforts to control Kurdish separatism within its borders Turkey is concerned about Russia's involvement In the region iii support of Asad tha removal of whom Turkey sees as essential to any pesce settlement Turkey is also wary of increased Russian cooperation with the Kurds and greater Russian influence in the region that could counter Turkey's leadership role The Russian-Iranian partnership and Iran's attempts to expand Shiite influence In the region are also security concerns for Turkey The refugee flow puts signlfrcant strain on Turkey's economy which has amounted to $9 billion according to a statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Refugees have also created infrestruclure and social strains particularly regarding access to education and employment Turkey tightened its borders in 2015 and is working to stench the flow of migrants to Europe and address refugee needs MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iraq In Iraq anti-ISIL forces will probably make incremerital battlefleld gains through spring 2016 Shla militias and Kurdish forces in northern Iraq have recaptured Bayji and Sinjar respectively from the ll lamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIL In western Iraq the Iraqi Security Forces ISF heva retaken most of the greater Ramadi araa from ISIL and will probably clear ISIL fighters from the city's urban core In the coming month ISIL's governance of areas it controls is probably faltering as alrstrikes take a toll on the group's sources of income hurting ISIL's ability to provide services and causing economic opportunities for the population VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00037 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 25 here 20544 025 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 21 34 to dwindle Even so the Iraqi Sunni population remains fearful of the Shla-dominated government In Baghdad This fear has bean heightened as Iranian-backed Shia militias play a lead role in retaking Sunni-majority areas suggesting Iraq's Sunnis will remain willing to endure some deprivation under ISIL rule Prime Minister Haydar ai-Abadi will probably continue to struggle to advance his refonns-whlch aim to combat corruption and streamline government-because of resistance from Iraqi elites who view the refonns as threatening to their entrenched political interests Meanwhile the drop In oil prices Is placing strain on both Baghdad's and lrbil's budgets constraining their ability to finance counter-ISIL operations and limiting options to address potential economically driven unrest Syria We assess that foreign support will allow Damascus to make gains in some key areas against the opposition and avoid further losses but it will be unable to fundamentally alter the battlespace Increased Russian involvement particularly airstn kes will probably help the regime regain key terrain in high priority areas in western Syria such as Aleppo and near the coast where it suffered losses to the opposition In summer 2015 ISIL is under threat on several fronts in Syria and Iraq from incressed Coalition and government operations Manpower shortages will continue to undennine the Syrian regime's ability to accompUsh strategic battlefield objectives The regime still lacks the personnel neaded to capture and hold key areas and strategically defeat the opposition or ISIL Damascus increasingly relies on militias reservists and foreign supportei'S-6uch as lren and Lebanese Hizballah-to generate manpower according to press reporting The Syrian regime and most of the opposition are participating in UN-medlated talks that started in early February in Geneva Both sides probably have low expectations for the negotiations with the opposition calling for ceasefires and humanitarian assistance as a precondition The negotiations without a ceasefire agreement will not alter the battlefield situation The humanitarian situation in Syria continues to deteriorate In December 2015 and January 2016 the number of Syrian refugees registered or in the process of registering in the Middle East and North Africa rose by nearly 102 000 from 4 3 million to 4 4 million according to UN data The refugees are putting significant streln on countries surrounding Syria as well as on Europe Turkey hosts more than 2 2 million refugees Lebanon has about 1 1 million Jordan has more than 630 000 Iraq has 245 000 Approximately 500 000 have fled to Europe according to the UN The more than 4 million refugees and 6 5 million estimated internally displaced persons lOPs account for 49 percent of Syria's preconflict populetion Estimates of fatalities In Syria since the start of the civil wer vary but most observers calculate that at least 250 000 men women and children on all sides of the conflict have lost their lives since 2011 On 22 December the UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2258 which renews the UN's authority to utilize cross-border deliveries for humanitarian assistance to Syria through 10 VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00038 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 26 here 20544 026 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 22 35 January 2017 Since July 2014 the UN hes provided food to 2 4 million people water end sanitation to 1 3 million people and medical supplies to 4 1 million people through its cross-border deliveries o Separately the Syrian Government began requiring in mid-November that aid agencies get humanitarian assistance notarized by the Syrian embassies in the country of product origin This requirement previously applied only to commercial goods and might delay future UN food deliveries within Syria according to the UN Libya We assess lhet insecurity and conflict in Libya will persist in 2016 posing a continuing threat to regional stability The country has been locked in civil war betWeen two rival governments end affiliated armed groups The 17 December signing of a UN-brokered agreemeot to form a Government of National Accord GNA resulted from a year-long political dialogue that sought to end the ongoing civil war and reconcile Libya's rival governments However the GNA will face a number of obstacles In estabHshing its authority and security across the country The GNA still faces the difficult task of forming a capable centralized security force It will also be challenged to confront terrorist groups such as ISIL which has exploited the conflict and political instability in the country to expand its presance o The rival governments-the internationally recognized Tobruk-based House of Represantetives House and the Tripoli-based General National Congreas GNC have participated in UN-brokered peace talks since fall2014 Reaction to the deal and the proposed GNA has bean mixed and hardliners on both sides have opposed the agreement o U On 25 January the House voted to approve the UN-brokered deal with conditions but rejected a controversial article granting the GNA's Presidency Council interim control of the 'military The House also rejected the GNA's proposed cabinet and demanded a smaHer ministerial slate o Libya's economy has deteriorated because of the conflict Oil exports-the primary source of government revenue-have fallen signifiC n ly from the pre-revolution level of 1 6 billion berrels per day Libya's on sector also faces continued threats from terrorist groups ISIL attacked oil production and export facilities In February 2015 September 2015 and January 2016 Meanwhile extremists and terrorists have exploited the security vacuum to plan and launch attacks in Libya and throughout the region The permissive security environment has enabled ISIL to establish one of its most developed branches outside of Syria and Iraq As of lela 2015 ISIL's branch in Libya maintained a presence in Surt Benghazi Tripoli Ajdabiya and other areas of the country according to press reports Members of ISIL in Libya continue to stage attacks throughout the country Yemen The Yemen conflict will probably remain in a strategic stalemate through mld-2016 Negotiations between the Saudi-led coalition and the Hulhl-aligned forces remain stalled but neither side is able to achieve decisive results through mirltary force Hulhi-alignad forces almost certainly remain committed to fighting following battlefield setbacks in the Aden and Marlb Governorates In 2015 and probably Intend to retake lost territory in those areas VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00039 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 27 here 20544 027 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 23 36 Nonetheless regional stakeholders on both sides of Yemen's conflict including Iran which continues to back the Huthls are signaling willingness to participate in peace talks Even a cease-lira of a few days or weeks would facilitate the entry and distribution of commercial and humanitarian goods inside Yemen where at least 21 mHiion paople-80 percent of the population-require assiatance according to the UN AOAP and ISIL's affiliates in Yemen have exploitad the conflict and the collapse of government authority to gain new recruits and allies and expand their territorial control In Dacember AOAP seized the southern city of Zinjiber adding to its capture of the coastal city of Mukalla to the east Iran Since January Tehran met the demands for Implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Pian of Action JCPOA exchanged detainees and released 10 US sailors Despitethesa developments the Islamic Republic of Iran presents an enduring threat to US national interests because of its support to regional terrorist and militant groups and the Asad regime as well as its development of advanced mHitary capabilities Tehran views itself as leading the 'axis of resistance'-which Includes the Asad regime and subnational groups aligned with Iran especially Lebanese Hizballah and Iraqi Shia militants Their intant is to thwart US Seudi and Isreal influence bolster its allies and fight ISIL's expansion Tehran might even use American citizens detained when entering Iranian territories as bargaining pieces to achlave financial or political concessions in line with their strategic intentions Iran's Involvement in the Syrian Iraqi and Yemeni conflicts deapaned in 2015 In Syria Iran more opanly acknowledged the deaths of Iranian 'marlyrs o increased Iranian troop levels and took mora of a frontline rola ageinst 'terrorists ' In Iraq Iranian combat forces employed rockets artillery and drones against ISIL Iran also supported Huthi rebels in Yemen by attempting to ship lathal aid to the Huthis Tehran will almost certainly remain active throughout the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East in 2016 to support its regional partners and extend its regional influence Iranian officials believe that engaging adversaries away from its borders will help prevent Instability from spilling into Iran and reduce ISIL's threat to Iran and its regional partners Iran has also increased cooparation with Russia in the region Supreme Leader Khemanel continues to view the Unitad States as a major threat to Iran and we assess that his views will not change despite implementation of the JCPOA deal In October 2015 Khamenei publicly claimed the United States was using the JCPOA to 'infiltrate and penetrate' Iran His statement prompted the Iranian hardliner-dominated security services to crack down on journansts and businessmen with suspected ties to the West The crackdown was intended by hardliners to demonstrate to President Ruhani and to Washington that a broader opening to the West following JCPOA would not be tolerated Iran released several US citizens In January 2016 who were'being held in Iran however it might attempt to use any additional US citizens as bargaining chips for US concessions Iran's mintary and security services are kean to demonstrate that their regional power ambitions have not been altered by the JCPOA deal One week prior to JCPOA Adoption Day Iran publicized the launch of its new 'long-rangeo and mora accurate baUistic missile celled the 'Emad Iran also publicizes development of its domestically produced weapons systems submarines and surface combatants artillery and UAVs to deter potential adversaries and strengthen its regional influence and prestige VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00040 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 28 here 20544 028 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 24 37 Iran's involvement in the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts has enabled its forces to gain valuable on-the-ground experience in counterinsurgency operations Lebanon Lebanon wiH continue to struggle with the fallout from the civil war in neighboring Syria end faces a range of interlocking political security humanitarian and economic challenges The spillover from the Syrian conflict has had negative consequences on almost all aspects of fife in Lebanon frorr rising sectarianism to major strains on int'rimructure and public services further straining the country's delicate political balance o Lebanon's most immediate security threat is from Syrian-based extremists on its northeastern border The Lebanese army has carried out multiple operations against Nusrah Front and ISIL to secure the border and prevent against the flow of terrorists into the country Beirut also faces threats from Sunnl extremists in the country who are retaliating against Lebanese Hizballeh's military invotvement in the Syrian civil war o The influx of about 1 1 milfron Sunni Syrian refugees to Lebanon has alterad the country's sectarian demographics and is badly straining public services and burdening the economy The Lebanese economy will probably remain stegnant throughout 2016 as protracted regional instability and poliHcal gridlock at home continue to erode the country's competiHveness Egypt Egypt faces a persistent threat of terrorist and militant activity directed primarily at state security forces In both the Sinai Peninsula and in mainland Egypt The security services have in Hated a counterlerrorism campaign to disrupt and detain Sinal-based militants however terrorist groups still retain the ability to conduct attacks o ISIL's branch in Sinai JSIL-5inaQ has conducted dozens of lethal attacks on military and security personnel some of which suggest sophisHcated and coordinated attack planning according to press reports o ISIL Sinai clelmed responsibility for the downing of a Russian aircraft in the Sinai in October 2015 which if true would demonstrate the expanding threat from ISIL and its regional branches o The continued threat of terrorism places further strain on Egypt's economy by harming Egypfs tourism industry a key source of revenue The country is also grappling with high poverty and unemployment rates Tunisia Tunisia's first post-transiHonel democraHc government since the 2011 Arab Spring revolution is marking VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00041 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 29 here 20544 029 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER its first year in office Since the revolution the country has overcome deep political divisions to reach consensus on key political issues develop a new consHtution and elect a new government according to 38 press and academic reports Despite the government's significant strides in its democratic transition Tunisia faces challenges in consolidating these achievements o Tunisia is confronting a threat from terrorist groups exploiting Ubya's pennissive environment to plan and launch attacks as well as from groups operating within Tunisia's borders according to press reports The perpetrators of the terrorist attack on the Bardo Museum in Tunis in March 2015 and hotels in Soussa in June-both claimed by ISIL-trained at a terrorist camp in Ubya according to press reports o The government inherited high unemployment particularly among youth and a high budget deficit according to press reports The Bardo and Soussa terrorist attacks have disrupted tourism a critical source of revenues anctjobs SOUTH ASIA Afghanistan The Kabul Government will continue to face persistent hurdles to political stability In 2016 including eroding political cohesion assertions of authority by local powerbrokers recurring financial shortfalls and countrywide sustained attacks by the Taliban Political cohesion will remain a challenge for Kabul es the National Unity Government will confront larger and more divisive issues later in 2016 including the Implementation of election refonns long-delayed parliamentary elections and a potential change by a Loya Jirga that might fundamentally alter Afghanistan's constitutional order Kabul will be unable to effectively address its dire economic situation or begin to c1 1rb its dependence on foreign aid until it first contains the insurgency which is steadily chipping away at Afghanistan's security In this environment international financial aid will remain the most important external detenninant of the Kabul govemmenrs strength We assess that fighting in 2016 will be more intense than 2015 continuing a decade-long trend of deteriorating security that will compound these challenges The fighting will continue to threaten US personnel our Allies and international partners-including Afghans-particularlY in Kabul and other urban population centers The Afghan National Security Forces ANSF with the help of anti-Taliban powerbrokers and international funding will probably maintain control of most major population centers However the forces will very likely cede control of some rural areas Without international funding the ANSF will probably not remain a cohesive or viable force The Taliban has largely coalesced and is relatively cohesive under the leadership of new Taliben Senior Leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansur despite some early opposition The Taliban's two-week seizure of the provincial capital of Kunduz provided an important boost to Mansur's leadership The Taliben will continue to test the overstretched ANSF faced with problematic logistics low morale and weak leadership The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIL announced in January 2015 the fonnatlon of Its Khoresan branch in South Asia an amalgamation of primarily disaffected and rebranded fanner Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-e Taliben Pakistan TTP members Despite quick early growth in 2015 ISIL'$ Khorasen branch VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00042 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 30 here 20544 030 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 26 39 will probably remain a low-level threat to Afghan stability as well as to US and Western interests in the region in 2016 Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's continuing efforts to undermine the political opposition In Bangladesh will probably provide openings for transnational terrorist groups to expand their prasanca in the country Hasina and other government officials have insisted publlcally that the killings of foreigners are the work of the Bangladash Nationalist Party and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e lslami political parties and are intended to disCredit the government However ISIL claimed rasponsibility for 11 high-profile attacks on foreigners and religious minorities other extremists in Bangladesh-including Ansarullah Bangia Team and ai-Qa'ida In the Indian Subcontinent AQIS -have claimed rasponslbility for killing at least 11 progressive writers and bloggers In Bangladesh sinca 2013 Pakistan and India Relations between Pakistan and India remain tense daspite the rasumptlon of a bilateral dialogue in December Following a terrorist attack In early January on Pathankot Air Force base In India which New Delhi blames on a Pakistani-based group India's engagement with Pakistan will probably hinge In 2016 on Islamabad's w Dingness to take action against those in Pakistan linked to the attack SUB SAHAR AN AFRICA Central Africa Prospects for delayed eleCtions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo originally scheduled for 2016 increase the risk of political tensions and perhaps violence Violence might also break out in the Republic of Congo where a controversial October 2015 constitutional referendum paved the wey for long-serving Prasldant Denis Sassou-Nguesso to run for a new term in 2016 elections Both governments have resorted to heavy-handed tactics to stifle opposition and subdue or prevent electionrelated protests In Burundi violence related to Prasident Pierre Nkurunzlza's controversial reelection in July 2015 will almost certainly continue as a simmering crisis The conflict might expand and Intensify if increased attacks between the govemmant and armed opposition provoke a magnified rasponse from either side or if the security services fracture Into divided loyeltlas The Central African Republic held peaceful prasidenti l and parliamentary elections in late December although they were marred by logistical issues A run-off will probably take place in mid-February between the two top candidates and we do not know how the armed spoilers and losing candidatas will react The risk of continued ethno-rellgious clashes between Christians and Muslims throughout the country remains high despite the pi-esence of international peacekeeping forces which are increasingly targets of violence VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00043 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 31 here 20544 031 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 27 40 Somalia The Somali Federal Govemmenfs authority will probably remain largely confined to the capital in 2016 and Mogadishu will continue to rely on the African Union Mission in Somalia AMISOM as a security guarantor against ai-Shabaab as it prepares for elections in 2016 South Sudan Implementation of the peeca agreement between Juba and opposition eiements will be slow as spoilers from both sides seek to stall progreas The ratum of fanner opposition members to Juba will almost certainly causa jockeying for positions of power Localized fighting wiD continue and probably spread to previously unaffected araas causing the humanitarian situation to worsen Economic conditions will probably deteriorate further as inflation remains high and pricas for staple goods rise fueling dissatisfaction with the government Sudan President Bashirconsolidated power following his reelection in April2015 but the ragimewill continue attempts at a national dialogue which will probably not placate a divided political opposition The regime will almost certainly confront a range of challenges including public dissatisfaction over a kened economy Divisions among anned opponents will almost certainly inhibit their ability to make signltlcant gains against Khartoum However elements of the opposition will continue to wage insurgencies in the Southern Kordoftin and Blue Nile states and Darfur Sudan listed as e state sponsor of terror since 1993 cut diplomatic ties with Iran in January following an attack on the saudi Embassy in Tehran Since 2014 Sudan's relations with Iran have cooled as Khartoum has grown closer to Riyadh Nigeria President Muhammadu Buhari and the Nigerian government will confront a wide range of challenges in 2016 many of which are deeply rooted and have no oquick fixes His tasks include reviving a struggling economy -Africa's largest - diversifying sources of government revenue beyond oil raining In corruption addressing mounting state debts rafonning redundant parastatai organizations and developing the power agriculture and transportation sectors Nigeria will continue to face internal threats from Boko Haram which pledged loyalty to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Lavent ISIL in March 2015 Despite losing territory In 2015 Boko Harem will probably remain a threat to Nigeria throughout 2016 and will continue its terror campaign within the country and in neighboring cameroon Niger and Chad LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Central America Strong family ties to the United States-es well as gang violence a lack of jobs1 and a worsening drought in Central America's northern tier-'ll sustain high rates of migration to the United States in 2016 Weak institutions divided legislatures low levels of tax collection and high debts will eonstrain efforts to VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00044 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 32 here 20544 032 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 28 41 improve rule of law tackle conuption and alleviate poverty Homicide rates in the region remain among the highest in the world and spiked in El salvador to levels not seen since the country's civil war from 1979 to 1992 The people hardest hit by the drought include most of the region's subsistence farmeni who constitute 25 to 40 percent of the population in Guatemala and HondUras The prolonged drought will probably affect 3 5 miHion people in the region in 2016 Cuba Cuban leaders will remain focused on preserving political control as they prepare for a probable presidential transition in 2018 Economic reforms to reduce the state role in the economy and promote private economic activity will continue at a slow pace in part because Of probable resistance from senior leaders and government officials concerned that rapid changes might provoke popular unrest Living standards will remain poor Along with fears among the Cuban population that the United Stetes will repeal the 1966 Cuban Adjuatment Act the statute allowing Cuban nationals to apply to become lawful permanent US residents these trends sustain the increasing migration of undocumented Cubans Migration Is particularly acute across the US southwest border where 31 000 Cubans crossed In FY2015 a 76-percent increase over the prior yesr Venezuela The opposition alliance won a much-coveted majority in the December 2015 national assembly elections setting the stage for a political showdown in 2016 between the legislative and executive branches The opposition will seek to implement its policy agenda which might Include pursuing a presidential racail referendum Economic issues will also figure prominently on the domestic agenda for 2016 Caracas will probably encounter fiscal pressures as it seeks to avoid a default on its soveralgn dabt in 2016 the economy is suffering from a severe recession that the lMF projects will cause It to contract by at least 8 percent in 2016 Venezuela's government has declined to release complete official figures on macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and growth Brazil Brazil's investigation into corruption at state-controlled oil company Petrobras will probably continue through 2016 Scores of Petrobras officials construction firm executives and politicians have been jailed since the probe was launched In March 2014 Brazil lost its investment-grade rating in December 2015 after the second credit agency in three months downgraded the country's debt to junk status Further damaging revelations from the probe might prolong political gridlock In Brazil Meanwhile preparations are underway in Brazil to address Infrastructure logistics and security Issues involvad in hosting the 2016 Summar Olympics in Rio Organizers are using past Olympics as models cooperating with foreign govem '11ants and building upon Brezirs experience organizing a large and sustained security posture such as when it hosted the World Cup in 2014 VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00045 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN Insert offset folio 33 here 20544 033 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 29 DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 42 Chairman BURR Director Clapper thank you for that testimony I remind all members that everybody at the witness table is available for questions directed at them With that I'd recognize Senator Lankford for five minutes Senator LANKFORD Thank you Mr Chairman To all of you thank you I do remind people back home because in Oklahoma we're extremely grateful for many folks in the armed services that serve us every single day We recognize them see them recognize them by their uniforms But I remind them also that there are a lot of people in the intelligence community that they won't recognize at all and they'll never see and they'll never be able to thank personally So would you pass on gratitude to them and we are incredibly grateful for the very difficult work that they do every single day Director Clapper you said this morning in your 50 years in the intelligence business you can't recall a more diverse array of challenges And you graced us with a long list of doom as you listed it just now whether that be space whether that be proliferation whether that be radical Islamic terrorism and such I want to focus on one of the areas that you talked about specifically and that's narcotics and the movement into our country and what we deal with on a day to day basis as a challenge Again this morning you had mentioned you thought the focus should be more on the interdiction So my challenge is for this group and my interest What are we doing on the intel gathering to be able to find out what's happening the pathways that some of these narcotics are moving into the United States and the interdiction and how we're cooperating among agencies how's that communication going Director CLAPPER Well sir the challenge as I indicated this morning--and I hark back to a series of testimonies by General Kelly the former commander of the Southern Command in which he made the point that we did have a great deal of intelligence on drug flow into the United States--our challenge has been the lack of resources sometimes to react to it to actually interdict it So in one sense I think that's a plea or a commercial for more operational assets to respond I'm a big fan of the Coast Guard and I think the Coast Guard has done some great work The deployment of these new Coast Guard cutters which has a national security component to it has had a dramatic impact when they've been able to be employed So to me the big thing here is the operational resource to respond I think the community works very well together on the issue of drug intelligence and facilitating interdiction Senator LANKFORD Any comments on that from any of the other leaders No response Let me move on then as well because there's been a lot of conversation about Libya and ISIL and their movement into other areas they call provinces and moving all around the world Libya has been especially large in that What do you think is ISIL's intention in Libya Director CLAPPER Well I think not unlike what they've done with Syria and Iraq What's unique about ISIL of course is its possession and control over territory and that's been the case in Syria and Iraq and of course that presents certain vulnerabilities VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00046 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 43 when they assume the accoutrements or the traits of a nationstate I think it's similarly their goal in Libya It's essentially an ungoverned space and also access to substantial oil resources just as they've had in Syria So I think there is some commonality They're right now kind of centered or headquartered in Sirte which is kind of in the center of the coast of Libya and they're trying to spread out along the coast and take over more and more areas They are present as I indicated in my statement in the major cities notably Benghazi and Tripoli Senator LANKFORD You mentioned as well about Iran still being the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world How have you seen that role and that direction towards terrorism and support of terrorism since the signing of the JCPOA Since that has occurred have you seen a change in Iran's behavior towards sponsoring terrorism Director CLAPPER Have not seen a change in the behavior of the Quds Force They are right now kind of consumed with the situation in Iraq and Syria and as well in supporting the Houthis in Yemen So that has been the focus predominantly That's not to say they're not interested elsewhere but that's where the focus of their efforts has been Senator LANKFORD Again you had mentioned this morning that there have been about 140 missiles launched by Iran in violation of UN agreements and then two additional just in the last few months Any change in behavior you've seen in their testing of ballistic missiles Director CLAPPER No You're exactly right Senator Lankford that's what I said Since 2010 and the promulgation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1929 they've fired about 140 missiles About half of that took place during the negotiations They launched two one in October and one in November which I personally think was a message that they are still going to continue to develop what is already a very robust missile force Senator LANKFORD Thank you I yield back Chairman BURR Thank you Senator Lankford The Chair would recognize himself for a couple of questions Director Comey what's the risk to law enforcement and to prosecution if when presented a legal court order a company refuses to provide the communications that the court has ordered them to Director COMEY The risk is that we won't be able to make a case and a really bad guy will go free Chairman BURR Can you for the American people set a percentage of how much of that is terrorism and how much of this fear is law enforcement and prosecutions that take place in every town in America every day Director COMEY I'd say this problem we call ''Going Dark '' which as Director Clapper mentioned is the growing use of encryption both to lock devices when they sit there and to cover communications as they move over fiber optic cables is actually overwhelmingly affecting law enforcement because it affects cops and prosecutors and sheriffs and detectives trying to make murder cases car accident cases kidnapping cases drug cases It has an impact VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00047 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 44 on our national security work but overwhelmingly this is a problem that local law enforcement sees Chairman BURR This would include pornography and the list goes on and on and on which I think there would be consensus in America that if that's carried out that if a court certifies that the reason is there that a company ought to then produce that information Is that logical Director COMEY Yes especially with respect to devices phones that default lock That is the overwhelming concern of state and local law enforcement because all of our lives are becoming increasingly digital Those devices are going to hold the evidence of child pornography communications that someone made before they were killed before they went missing the evidence that will be necessary to solve a crime and including things like car accidents So it is a big problem for law enforcement armed with a search warrant when you find a device that can't be opened even though the judge said there's probable cause to open it As I said it affects our counterterrorism work San Bernardino a very important investigation to us we still have one of those killers' phones that we have not been able to open It's been over two months now We're still working on it But this also occurred on the criminal side A woman was murdered in Louisiana last summer eight months pregnant killed No clues to who did it except her phone was there when she's found killed They couldn't open it still can't open it So the case remains unsolved So this is something I hear about all over the country from my partners in state and local law enforcement Chairman BURR Is it safe to say that if companies were required to honor that court order that law enforcement and the prosecution element isn't concerned at all at how they access that--that can be proprietary and within each company--but supplying the information is absolutely crucial to the continuation of that investigation and prosecution Director COMEY That's one of the aspects of the conversation which is healthy There's a robust debate going on and there ought to be because these are important issues But a part that gets confusing to me is when folks talk like we want access to companies' servers we want access to their source code What we would like is a world where people are able to comply with court orders Lots of companies do Both people who make phones are able to unlock them when judges order it and people who provide communication services are able to comply with judges' orders Others can't and therein lies the problem But it's not about us trying to get a back door a term that confuses me frankly I don't want a door I don't want a window I don't want a sliding glass door I would like people to comply with court orders and that's the conversation we're trying to have Chairman BURR Thank you Director Comey Vice Chairman Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Thanks very much Mr Chairman Mr Brennan I'd like to ask you a question if I may subject Libya How does the CIA assess ISIL's intrusions into Libya VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00048 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 45 Director BRENNAN We see Libya as the most important theater for ISIL outside of the Syria-Iraq theater They have several thousand members there They have absorbed some of the groups inside of Libya including Ansar Al-Sharia that was very active prior to ISIL's rise Libya has been a place where this form of extremism and terrorism has grown up over the years As the borders of the SyriaIraq area were being tightened down we know that some of those foreign fighters started to divert into Libya So Libya has become a magnet for individuals not only inside of Libya but from the African continent as well as from outside So it is a real issue a real problem But we see ISIL in Libya as a very very important hub for ISIL activities Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Second question Assessment on North Korea We know they possess anywhere from 10 to 20 both uranium and plutonium weapons We now have seen the recent launch of the Taepodong 2 which my understanding is is capable of reaching the United States And then there's the KN08 How do you assess the Korean leader's intentions with what he is doing with respect to these tests and the development of both a plutonium and uranium stream of weapons Director BRENNAN I think it's very obvious that Kim Jong Un is trying to demonstrate to the world that he has capability both in terms of the nuclear test as well as ballistic missile an intercontinental ballistic missile capability that he wants to showcase as a way to demonstrate his strength but also as a way to market some of his proliferation capabilities So it is something that is obviously a key concern to the intelligence community as a whole It is a priority collection area for us But the assessment at least from my perspective is that he has developed both the nuclear capability as well as developing this ballistic missile capability mating them together so that he can demonstrate that he has reach far beyond the Korean Peninsula Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Third question a little bit more time How do you assess the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan How much of the territory of Afghanistan today is controlled by the Taliban Director BRENNAN It's a difficult question to address because a lot of times the Taliban control of certain areas is dynamic and fluid So they'll go in and take various government and military outposts seize it and then pull back There's large parts of that country that fall under Taliban influence and we've been working very closely with the Afghan military and security services intelligence services to try to concentrate their focus on areas that need to be protected whether it be critical infrastructure cities transit and transportation routes But as you well know the Taliban control a lot of terrain outside of the central government's reach And Al-Qaeda continues to have a presence typically inside of the eastern part of Afghanistan They continue to work with the Taliban as well as with the Haqqanis Collectively they present a serious threat to the stability of the Afghan government as well as to our personnel U S personnel inside of Afghanistan Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Thank you VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00049 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 46 That's it for now Thank you Chairman BURR Senator Wyden Senator WYDEN Thank you very much Gentlemen my view is you couldn't have passionate debates in this room without the great work that the men and women of the intelligence community do to preserve our freedom I just want to start by saying we're very grateful for that Director Brennan in 2014 the CIA conducted an unauthorized search of Senate files including the emails of Senate staff investigating the CIA's use of torture The CIA Inspector General later stated that the search involved improper agency access to Senate files and a review board that you appointed concluded that the search resulted in inappropriate access to the committee's work product You initially denied that search took place but the reports of both your inspector general and the review board show that this denial was at odds with the facts After the facts were publicly exposed the CIA even wrote an apology letter that you did not send Now senior officials from the NSA the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have all testified that it would be inappropriate for their agencies to secretly search Senate files without external authorization But we still have not gotten an acknowledgment from you So I think it would be important--I'd like to hear from you I'd like to set the record straight that this would never happen again Would you agree that the CIA's 2014 search of Senate files was improper Director BRENNAN This is the annual threat assessment is it not Yes I think Senator as you well know there were very unique circumstances associated with this whole affair These were CIA computers at a CIA-leased facility It was a CIA network that was shared between Senate staffers conducting that investigation for your report as well as CIA personnel When it became quite obvious to CIA personnel that Senate staffers had unauthorized access to an internal draft document of CIA there was an obligation on the part of CIA officers who had responsibility for the security of that network to investigate to see what might have been the reason for that access that the Senate staffers had to that document They conducted that investigation I spoke to the Chairman and Vice Chairman about it I tried to make sure they understood exactly what the challenge was that we had We conducted that investigation I then subsequently referred the matter to the IG when the Senate leadership was concerned about the actions of CIA officers I also subsequently convened an accountability board And I think if you were to read those reports including the accountability board you would see that it determined that the actions of the CIA were reasonable given the very unclear and unwritten or unspecific understanding between the committee and CIA at the time in terms of---- Senator WYDEN Mr Director my time is short but that's not what the inspector general or the---- Director BRENNAN I respectfully disagree Senator WYDEN continuing Or the review board---- VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00050 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 47 Director BRENNAN I respectfully disagree with you Senator Senator WYDEN I'd like to read the exact words The exact words of the review board were ''It resulted in inappropriate access to SSCI work product '' And your inspector general reached the same conclusion So the question here is when you're talking about spying on a committee responsible for overseeing your agency in my view that undermines the very checks and balances that protect our democracy and it's unacceptable in a free society And your compatriots in all of the sister agencies agreed with that Now you disagree Director BRENNAN Yes I think you mischaracterized both their comments as well as what's in those reports And I apologized to the Chairman and the Vice Chairman about the de minimis access and inappropriate access that CIA officers made to five emails or so of Senate staffers during that investigation and I apologized to them for that very specific inappropriate action that was taken as part of a very reasonable investigative action But do not say that we spied on Senate computers or your files We did not do that We were fulfilling our responsibilities Senator WYDEN I read the exact words of the inspector general and exact words of the review board You appointed the review board They said nobody ought to be punished but they said there was improper access My point is in our system of government we have responsibilities to do vigorous oversight and we can't do vigorous oversight if there are improper procedures used to access our files My time is up Mr Chairman Director BRENNAN Senator I would say do you not agree that there was improper access that Senate staffers had to CIA internal deliberative documents Was that not inappropriate unauthorized Senator WYDEN I can tell you having talked at length to our staff everything that we determined they did was appropriate But I asked about CIA conduct and two reviews the inspector general and your review board said it was improper Director BRENNAN Yes and I'm still awaiting the review that was done by the Senate to take a look at what the staffers' actions were Separation of powers between the Executive and Legislative Branches Senator goes both ways As I said I apologized to the Chairman and the Vice Chairman for the very specific inappropriate access that agency officers who were investigating this incident made to those emails very limited inappropriate actions Overall that investigation was done consistent with our obligations consistent with the law consistent with our responsibilities And I do think that you're mischaracterizing the full tenor of both the accountability board and the inspector general's report Senator WYDEN It's pretty hard to mischaracterize word for word quotes They used the words ''improper access '' Chairman BURR I'll exercise something here and recognize Senator Heinrich Senator HEINRICH I want to start by thanking our panelists for being here and for the continued excellent work that their respective agencies do every day in providing world-class strategic analysis and in keeping our country safe in a world of growing and complex threats that Director Clapper so eloquently laid out twice VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00051 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 48 today The work done by your agencies is critical and I want to thank the men and women of those agencies who continue to do excellent work I also want to thank Chairman Burr for holding this hearing It's been two years since we've had one of these and I hope we don't wait that long next time I think it's important that the American people have a chance to hear from these officials directly especially since so many of our actions with these Directors take place behind closed doors While that's certainly appropriate in most circumstances a public debate I believe benefits tremendously from transparency and I appreciate the opportunity today I want to start with Admiral Rogers Admiral as you know the world has seen a truly alarming increase in attacks on critical infrastructure For example in December DHS reported a 20 percent increase in cyber incidents between fiscal year 2014 and fiscal year 2015 While critical manufacturing was the most targeted sector in that energy ranked second in the number of incidents with water and waste water systems coming in third On top of that we've seen recent attacks against Turkish banks Ukrainian and Israeli electricity providers and it was recently revealed that Iranian hackers infiltrated a dam just north of New York City in 2013 So my question for you is this Does the IC particularly NSA have sufficient insight into the sorts of cyber threats to U S critical infrastructure that we're seeing by foreign actors and what can we do to better position ourselves against those threats specifically to critical infrastructure Admiral ROGERS You never have all the insight that you would like I don't think you're going to hear an intel professional tell you hey look I couldn't use more insight I think the biggest challenge in some ways is not so much the level of insight but it's how do we generate take that insight and generate action and make the changes that I think we all believe are necessary given the dynamics of the world that you've outlined that I don't think are short-term trends I don't see this changing in the near term I see this as the nature of the world we're living in and we're likely to be living in for some period of time So the challenge I think is how do we take those insights and generate action That's the biggest challenge to me Senator HEINRICH Have you thought about particularly given the focus of those on things like electrical generation and water and waste water systems the ramifications of some of the changes within those fields of distributed approaches and resiliency as opposed to the very traditional approaches of sort of one-way generation and large-scale transmission Admiral ROGERS Right And we're watching most of the sectors in the area trying to go that approach How can you build redundancy and resiliency look at fragmentation and duplication I've talked to several elements in power and water over the course of the last year and you can see elements within the sectors trying to go that way But I'd be the first to acknowledge just given the breadth of infrastructure within our Nation the amount of time it's going to take to do that across the entire breadth of our Nation that is not an insignificant challenge VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00052 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 49 Senator HEINRICH Clearly Would you agree that some of the movement towards more distributed purchase particularly within electrical generation things like microgrids islandable microgrids distributed storage distributed generation are helpful in mitigating the potential impact of a large-scale attack Admiral ROGERS Yes I think that's part of that should be a fundamental element of a broader strategy I just try to remind people there's no silver bullet if that makes sense Senator HEINRICH As a smart Senator said sometimes there's silver buckshot when you don't have a silver bullet Director Brennan while the United States is obviously not addressing the ISIL issue alone in Syria and Iraq the reality is that many of our foreign partners in the region are at times heavily distracted by unrelated conflicts that are sometimes counterproductive to that fight For example as you're well aware Turkey is targeting the very Kurds who've been some of the most engaged fighters in the battle against ISIS We have Saudi Arabia pouring money and equipment into the fight in Yemen instead of focusing on ISIL in Syria You've spent a lot of time in the Middle East over the years What has the CIA done and what else might be done to get our regional partners more focused on confronting the threat posed by ISIL Director BRENNAN As you point out Senator the Middle East right now I think is racked by more instability and violence and inter-state conflict than we have seen certainly in the past 50 years The amount of bloodshed and the humanitarian suffering is I think unprecedented We CIA work very closely with our partners throughout the region trying to make sure that those intelligence and security services are fulfilling their responsibilities professionally as far as making sure that we can share information with them about the flow of foreign fighters in particular given that there is such transit between and among these countries of individuals who might go to Syria Iraq and then down to Libya or Egypt We're trying to make sure we give them the intelligence they need give them the training they need but also give them the professional training that is required because there are tremendous obligations on them to make sure that they are able to carry out their responsibilities while at the same time respect the human rights obligations that they have as security services So what we're trying to do is to serve as an interlocutor with many of them and to see whether or not we can enhance their relationships Sometimes not only do we have inter-state conflicts but we have sort of intramural conflicts among some of these countries which then extends to the services So I think building up these intelligence and security services giving them the wherewithal to address the problems but again making sure that they carry out their responsibilities professionally is very important Chairman BURR Thank you Senator Heinrich The Chair would also make a note that the Senator is correct we didn't have an open threats hearing last year We had a closed one But last year we had open hearings with Admiral Rogers from VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00053 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 50 the NSA Director Rasmussen from the NCTC Director Comey from the FBI And we had an open hearing scheduled for Director Brennan and were blitzed by a snowstorm Maybe had we had him in he wouldn't have fallen and wrecked his knee It is the intent of the Chair to continue to allow every agency the opportunity not just to be here for a worldwide threat hearing but to come in and share with the American people what it is they do why they do it but more importantly why the American people should care about their success Today is drinking out of a fire hose trying to address the entire globe at one time The rest of it I think is going to be more constructive So I think the committee has attempted to try to increase the amount of open exposure with a degree of specificity that we haven't had in the past With that Senator Coats Senator COATS Thank you Mr Chairman Director I note here on the very first page of the statement for the record you say ''The order of topics presented in this statement does not necessarily indicate the relative importance or magnitude of the threat in the view of the intelligence community '' My question is is this because we are dealing with such a complex and ever-expanding level of threats and it's difficult to prioritize or is it because maybe we ought to be talking about this in Thursday's closed session If that's the case please tell me But if you had to prioritize--you know we have to make decisions here We have limitations You have budget limitations We want to try to address all these threats equally but that's not possible So it seems to me that as a committee member and as a member of Congress we need to know how to best allocate our budgets toward what you need I know that this can be ever-changing but what's your response to that and how should we best address this Director CLAPPER Well the more time I've spent doing this I think the more loath I've become to try to rank-order threats because any of them can leap up and bite us So we don't have the luxury of--I don't like to mislead people that well this one threat is the one that we're going to focus on at the expense of others So that's why the statement there What does that mean from a resource standpoint in terms of what funding and resources we're given to do our job I think the approach that we've taken at least what I've tried to champion in the five and a half years I've been the DNI is those resources that enable resilience and agility so that we can respond and hopefully anticipate and then respond to a variety of threats That's one thing--I said this before in answer to a question this morning Again in my time in the intelligence business I don't recall a time when we have been confronted with a more diverse array of threats whether it's the nation-state threat posed by Russia and China and particularly their substantial nuclear capabilities or non-nation-states of the likes of ISIL Al-Qaeda etc So all these threats are serious be it terrorism be it weapons of mass destruction or be it cyber Others may have a view here John Director BRENNAN As it was pointed out we're facing this array of threats The one area that I'm very concerned about is the in- VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00054 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 51 creasing concerns about vulnerabilities in that digital domain and cyber I do think we as a country need to make sure that we understand what those vulnerabilities are Then I think to Jim Comey's and others' points making sure that we understand that the intelligence and security services and law enforcement services of this country have a role to help protect that environment because our way of life our future really depends on making sure that that is strong And we have adversaries overseas both nation-states as well as sub-national actors that have the potential and the capability to carry out attacks Director CLAPPER The other part of this if I may just a thought that John keyed here is the admixture the combination of the threats posed to us in the cyber domain and the connection of that with terrorism That makes ranking these discrete threats kind of difficult Senator COATS Maybe that's why you have cyber technology as number one I just assume that and I appreciate the response on that Admiral Rogers I'd like you to comment on that also because this is your domain Where do we stand on that Admiral ROGERS For me like my counterparts on the panel I tell our team I am always leery about this hierarchical approach to doing business because I've watched it encourage a workforce to think very linearly so we focus on number one then we think about number two then we think about number three And the world around us just doesn't work that way For me the way I try to bin it with our team is protection of U S persons and U S infrastructure is priority number one And I look at this and I see cyber- and the counterterrorism world in particular bringing those together in a very concerning way as you heard from Director Clapper in his opening statement and cyber remains so foundational to every aspect of our daily lives just in a way that we haven't necessarily seen as much in the past It represents both great opportunity for us as a society but great vulnerability with the potential for great impact That's what's of concern Chairman BURR Thank you Senator Coats Senator King Senator KING To follow up that on that point I was a governor during September 11th and shortly afterwards we tasked our state police to go to all of what we thought were the vulnerable pieces of infrastructure in our state electrical chemical plants and those kind of things and assess their level of vulnerability and to in effect red team them about how they could the attacked Do we do that with our critical infrastructure There's a lot of talk here about legislation but it seems to me you could create a team to go to our power grid to go to our water and gas utilities financial services and say Look this is what could happen to you have you thought about this You don't really need legislation to do this In other words more proactive trying to alert them to the risks and to alert them to some of the protections that may be available Admiral ROGERS Now you're really talking outside my lane as the Director of NSA and more in the lane of the Department of VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00055 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 52 Homeland Security so I will not speak for Secretary Johnson I share your concern It's one reason why speaking within my lane within DOD for example we do just that We aggressively attempt to make sure we understand our structures their importance to our ability to execute their mission our mission and then their vulnerability So we do penetration testing We do red teams We do no-notice inspections for example as a way to make sure---- Senator KING It seems to me we ought--and perhaps we ought to have Jeh Johnson here But we need to be talking about being more active and not just wait and hope they are doing the proper defensive measures but to alert them to where they're vulnerable and to help them figure out the defensive measures Let me change the subject for a moment to heroin which is an absolute epidemic 10 or 12 000 people a year now dying The number's accelerating just astoundingly and tragically Director Clapper talked about Mexico and that's where it seems to be coming from A specific question One of the problems with heroin that we're now seeing is it's often laced with fentanyl which makes it more potent and more dangerous Where does that come from Do we know Do we have intelligence on where the fentanyl is coming from where it's being manufactured how it gets into this unfortunate stream Director Comey Director COMEY Senator I know there's a lot of work being done on that We have a pretty good sense that a fair amount of it is being manufactured in China but it's also being manufactured in other places in the developing world So I know DEA and FBI and the rest of the intelligence community is spending a lot of time trying to understand where those sources are Senator KING Well I think we should know that and it should be publicity and we should name and shame those companies-- those countries because this is entirely unacceptable It's a trade in death I would hope that there would be further analysis of that and also analysis of the trade stream that allows it to get to Mexico or Central America Second question Do we have adequate resources in terms of intelligence but also in terms of interdiction in Mexico and Central America My understanding is we have a pretty small number of people in some of those Central American countries which also are contributing to this Do you feel as the intelligence community that you have adequate resources to this trade where it comes from who's behind it Then of course that leads into interdiction I'll follow up with that Mr Comey your thoughts Director COMEY Surely not given the size of the tidal wave of heroin that's washing over from Mexico And there's two waves We talk a lot about the heroin wave for good reason There's another wave washing over the western United States that's methamphetamine from Mexico and the two waves are actually now crashing together in the middle of the United States So surely not is the honest answer We have built I think as Director Clapper said much more effective relationships among ourselves in focusing on that problem and with our partners in Mexico VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00056 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 53 and Central America But honestly it's not good enough given the size of the threat Senator KING Another question is how's it getting in Do we know how much by land and how much by water My understanding is a great deal of this is coming by water and one of the problems is a lack of adequate interdiction resources both in terms of the military and the Coast Guard Director COMEY A large amount of it comes by water and it tends to switch from both sides of the Central American land mass Pacific or Atlantic side But to pick up on what General Clapper said what I've heard from the Coast Guard especially is they have a lack of resources to interdict But also a lot of it comes by land tunnels smugglers trucks Because it's a tidal wave it's washing in a lot of different ways Senator KING A tidal wave of death is what we're talking about I appreciate your efforts but I think we have to realize that this is something that's really exploded almost literally in the last three or four years and we have to react to it proportionate to the threat to our people This is killing people right now in the United States in every state It's not an abstract concern It's not a possible virus It's something that's happening right now So I commend you for your efforts but I hope that this is something where the community can work together to develop the information necessary but then we can also--it's got to be all of government to react to take the information and act upon it Thank you very much for your testimony Thank you Mr Chairman Chairman BURR Senator Collins Senator COLLINS Thank you Mr Chairman Director Clapper I suspect that this may be your last public global threat hearing before our committee So let me join with our colleagues in thanking you for your decades of service You and I first met in 2004 when Joe Lieberman and I wrote the law that created the DNI Office and I take special pride in the work that you're doing and want to thank you for all of your years of service Director CLAPPER Thank you very much Senator Collins Senator COLLINS Let me follow up on the questions that my colleague from Maine just posed Is there actionable intelligence that would allow us to disrupt and interdict more of the heroin and fentanyl-laced heroin that is coming in from Mexico than we are able to act on because of operational constraints Director CLAPPER Well I just discussed this morning before the Senate Armed Services Committee the testimony that General Kelly former recently retired as the commander of Southern Command I heard him say on more than one occasion that they had a lot of good intelligence on drug flow into the United States and he was limited because of his lack of operational resources to react Now that is getting better Again a plug for the Coast Guard They do magnificent work These new cutters that they're building and deploying are a fantastic capability ideally suited for this interdiction mission particularly with the seaborne and specifically the semi-submersible vehicles that the druggies are using to ship large quantities When those are caught at sea you take a lot of drugs off the street VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00057 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 54 Senator COLLINS Thank you Director Comey you talked earlier about encryption and how difficult it is making the job of both law enforcement and our efforts to prevent and detect terrorist plots In fact you have been quoted as saying that encryption is at the center of the terrorist tradecraft Yet the administration has not submitted to date any legislative proposal to deal with encryption I would like to know whether you--and I'm going to ask General Clapper and Director Brennan the same question--have any of the three made recommendations to the President that he submit legislation dealing with the encryption problem to Congress for our consideration Director COMEY I'll go first Thank you Senator I would never-- I don't think it would be appropriate for me to share recommendations that I might have made within the Executive Branch But I will tell you this Encryption is a problem in our investigations It is also a great thing And therein lies the challenge which is why this is such a hard problem That's why the administration and the private sector have been struggling so much I am optimistic that we'll make progress through our conversations but I don't know whether that'll get us far enough So I can't quite clearly see what the future looks like from here but I'm just not comfortable talking about the deliberations inside Senator COLLINS Well let me change the question then Do you believe that we should pass legislation that deals with encryption Director COMEY I'm going to have to dodge that because that's not the FBI's job to make recommendations I do think that Congress and the American people have to grapple with this because there's a collision between something that is great encryption and something that's also great which is public safety Senator COLLINS General Clapper you're retiring at the end of the year so you don't have to be careful in answering this question in any way Director CLAPPER Well I'm not sure we've exhausted all the possibilities here technologically I'm not an IT expert by any means I would hope that we have not yet exhausted what could be done voluntarily As Director Comey indicated encryption is a good thing for all kinds of reasons for security and privacy and all that But at the same time it enables--it is enabling nefarious activity of all sorts whether it's law enforcement or in the national security arena to go on and we're losing information because of it So my hope is that the technological solution we haven't fully explored the potential there I'd also ask Admiral Rogers to comment as well Admiral ROGERS Encryption is foundational to the future Anyone who thinks we're just going to walk away from that I think is totally unrealistic The challenge becomes to me given that premise that encryption is foundational to the future what's the best way for us to meet both of these imperatives to ensure the privacy and the rights of our citizens and to ensure their protection and safety Both are incredibly important to us as a Nation The challenge that I've seen in the discussion to date is from Mike Rogers' perspective we're spending a lot of time talking about what we can't do and I keep thinking to myself We are the most VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00058 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 55 innovative technologically advanced Nation in the world let's start thinking about what can we do Let's start trying to figure out how are we going to make this work Senator COLLINS Thank you Chairman BURR Senator Hirono Senator HIRONO Thank you Mr Chairman Director Clapper thank you very much for noting--well first of all for your service and to all of you on the panel Thank you for noting that the drug threat is ever growing in our country and that while interdiction and enforcement are very important challenges to us I suspect that we are not putting very many resources into the prevention side of the drug equation That's just a comment Moving on as North Korea continues its nuclear weapons and missile programs do you assess that locating missile defense systems closer to North Korea or locating another carrier say in Yokosuka Japan could provide greater deterrence against North Korean aggression And I welcome comments also from Lieutenant General--General Stewart and anyone else on the panel who'd like to comment Director CLAPPER Well that's a policy call But having said that I think it would I think even the discussion about missile defense certainly gets the Chinese' attention They would prefer that THAAD for example not be deployed But the North Koreans are making it hard I think for the Chinese to sustain that position So to the extent that there are force displays force presence missile defense I think that could possibly have a deterrent effect on the North Koreans but it could also incite them to do more Senator HIRONO And with Kim Jong Un it's hard to tell which way he would go That's just an editorial comment In your statement of record you note that we will monitor compliance with China's September 2015 commitment to refrain from conducting or knowingly supporting cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property with the intent of providing competitive advantage to companies or commercial sectors Private security experts have identified limited ongoing cyber activity from China but have not verified state sponsorship or the use of exfiltrated data for commercial gain So Director Clapper and Admiral Rogers I understand that there's much that we can't discuss in this open forum but can you help me understand how the September 15th U S -China cyber agreement is helpful when we can't effectively monitor compliance Director CLAPPER Well I think I'll ask Admiral Rogers to back me up here but I think that there has been a decline but I think we're going to have to have some more time to assess whether this is a case where these state sponsors those elements cyber actors that are under the control of the state have actually reduced their activity or they were told Don't get caught I think we're going to need some more time to assess that Of course there's also the challenge of determining whether per the agreement that any information that is purloined is actually used for economic advantage or not Mike do you want to add to that VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00059 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 56 Admiral ROGERS No I would agree and I don't think there's any doubt that we have been able to show in the past cases where that was the case I think that's in part what led to the desire to be very direct with our Chinese counterparts to say this behavior is unacceptable and we have to work our way through this because the status quo the use of the powers of the state to generate economic advantage through cyber as a tool is not acceptable to us I think that's what drove the discussions in September and as the DNI has said our view to date is we have seen some lessening in activity but we're not yet prepared to say that's as a result of a systematic policy choice on the part of our Chinese counterparts Senator HIRONO Because it's so hard to determine attribution in the cyber threat arena do you believe that we'll ever be able to resolve this dilemma I'd ask you two gentlemen to respond Then General Stewart would you care to comment on my first question regarding the assessment question that I had General STEWART I think North Korea has a number of objectives one of which is demonstrating strength against the U S and its allies The second objective is to deter U S actions if they take unilateral actions on the Korean Peninsula And third among the objectives is to separate the U S from its South Korean ally So the things that we can do that will show that we still have strength that we will not be deterred that we will not be separated from our ally will be very beneficial However Kim Jong Un is unpredictable and therefore I think we should do all those things to maintain our relationship show strength show that we cannot be deterred from taking action but he is still an unpredictable wild card that none of us know how he will react Senator HIRONO Some of our force structure decisions though would also have an impact on China which is a more I think reasonable actor I'm sorry Mr Chairman but could the other two gentlemen answer briefly the question Chairman BURR They can briefly Admiral ROGERS You never have perfect knowledge We historically have been able to put together a fairly good picture I'm not going to argue that it's perfect I'm the first to acknowledge it's getting harder not easier because we're watching opponents spending a lot of time trying to hurt or diminish our ability to attribute specific activity to specific actors Senator HIRONO Did you want to add to that Director CLAPPER No Senator HIRONO Thank you It's going to be a challenge Chairman BURR The correct answer Laughter Senator HIRONO Thank you Chairman BURR Senator Warner Senator WARNER Thank you Mr Chairman Let me start with thanking again all of you for your service and equally important the literally thousands of men and women who work to keep our country safe Let me say at the outset as a Virginia Senator the fact that we have the offices of ODNI CIA NRO NGO NGA and a series of other entities and Director Comey if GSA makes the right decision maybe the FBI as well-- VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00060 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 57 and Senator Mikulski's not here--I hope you will relay that message that we give you the credit and obviously the men and women the professionals don't get the credit that they appropriately deserve Director Clapper I'm going to--a couple questions for you First of all I want to commend you in terms of your testimony today the fact that you've listed cyber and what I would call digital security first and the recognition that while we're talking somewhat about encryption today and I'm going to come back to that in a moment that we need forward-leaning thinking about the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence and virtual reality and the fact of the matter that foreign data science is moving ahead very rapidly and tools and challenges around issues like encryption and going dark--this genie's out of the bottle I particularly commend both Admiral Rogers and Director Comey's comments People who want to relitigate the origination of encryption that issue is behind us I think it's appropriate to point out that when our national security is threatened also in terms of intellectual capital personal information other kinds of intrusions encryption--and I particularly appreciate Director Comey your comments as well--is both an asset and potentially a liability I fear that sometimes we have focused just on this piece rather than the whole encompassing issue around digital security Admiral Rogers again I want to give you kudos for this notion around innovation Director Clapper I guess what my concern is is that sometimes with all of these competing interests with national security interests with intellectual capital security interests with civil liberties security with American business security that I'm not sure all of these competing interests while there have been efforts have actually all come together in a thoughtful reflective way to try to challenge folks around American innovation about how we get this back I think there needs to be a real debate between all of these communities--the tech community American business information security specialists law enforcement intel advocates for privacy and civil liberties Director Clapper I'd like to see if we had such kind of a thoughtful approach would that be of value to this debate which has already proved to be quite contentious Director CLAPPER It certainly would I think--and I think you've named most of the key constituencies here There are many countervailing interests There is the pull of the needs for national security and law enforcement that you've heard There are the privacy and civil liberties concerns and our own security So there are a myriad or a welter of countervailing interests here that are at play We certainly we try to sort our way through all those competing equities It's a very very complex issue as I think you've heard from the discussion that's transpired so far Senator WARNER Well I just would say that as somebody who spent 20-plus years 25-plus years in the telecom industry I don't think it is totally equivalent And the notion of a kind of top-down solution which might give us a static solution for a short period of time but this is going to be a constantly evolving challenge and VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00061 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 58 the response is going to need to be flexible and constantly transitioning Again as you lay out some of the challenges we're talking about a piece here on encryption but digital security is a much broader issue I think you've appropriately laid out some of the buckets that have to be part of this this conversation My time is running out I just want to add a subject that the Chair and the Vice Chair have been very helpful on as we think about on overhead on our satellite issues I recently was out at NGA had a very good session there on commercial satellites Right now the United States not governmental has about 50 commercial satellites One company alone is going to go to 250 this year I guess Director Clapper--I know your background here--would you spend a moment in terms of how commercial is going to fit in with our overall overhead needs Director CLAPPER Well I think commercial imagery I have been a huge proponent of it since I served as the Director of NIMA-NGA right after 9-11 as a crucial part of our overall architecture It's also important though I think that these commercial entities remain commercially viable If they have a product or service that we can use we should take advantage of that from the standpoint of additional coverage what is it we can unload from our NTM complex which I think we'll always have a need for and also importantly for resiliency But what I don't think is a good thing is if they become completely dependent on the government So we have to find the balance there and that's why I would like to make a change in the architectural responsibility so that that is accounted for in the totality of our overhead reconnaissance constellation Senator WARNER Thank you Chairman BURR Thank you Senator Warner Senator Blunt Senator BLUNT Thank you Chairman General Clapper all of you who represent the IC community and the people you work with and the people that work for us thank you for what you do I'm going to mention a couple of questions I'm not going to ask one for the record But you just mentioned your leadership at NGA the geospatial efforts we have I've been spending a lot of time lately with Director Cardillo and in those discussions we've been talking a lot about sort of the workforce of the future So one thing I'm going to ask in a question for all of you that we don't have time to ask today is With engineering with technology with science with math are we doing the kinds of things we need to do and what can we do earlier to identify people we want to get on that track of being able to do these jobs in the IC community generally Admiral Rogers in your field specifically Some information on that would be helpful I'm also going to not ask a question--I will ask that question for the record With regard to science technology engineering and mathematics STEM disciplines what are we doing to identify and nurture STEM talent earlier and attract those people to the IC in general and to the NSA in particular VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00062 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 59 I won't ask today about Robert Levinson I think that's probably more appropriately asked in a closed setting and I'll be doing that later But in that regard I am concerned that the transfer of money occurred when it did A supposed $400 million from a past military sale that we had had happened to be given back just coincidentally the same time that those three hostages as I see them were released Now this is money by the way that the Congress in 2000 said had to go to victims of Iranian-backed terror and it all did So this is clearly giving the money away twice sort of like the meeting of the church business meeting where they say We've got a real problem We've got a $1 000 deficit What should we do And somebody says Well let's give half of it to the PTA and half of it to the Girl Scouts This money was gone but it was an excuse a coincidental excuse I think to do the right thing in the wrong way But what I want to ask you is you said Secretary Kerry said just in the last few days that undoubtedly some of the money returned to Iran would go to terrorist groups You verified again today that you see no real change in behavior in this number one sponsor state sponsor of terror in the world Are we doing any analysis And anybody that wants to answer this can What do we think happens when suddenly Iran gets $100 million $100 billion or maybe they get half of that Maybe they get $50 billion What do we think happens in places where not very much money can drive a lot of bad activity $400 million in Yemen can make lots of bad things happen Are we evaluating what happens when Hezbollah when the Taliban when the Houthi get this new infusion of money that I think everybody understands they are about to get Director CLAPPER Well Senator Blunt I'm a little constrained here in what can be said about this publicly But we are watching to the best of our ability the insight we have on actually where this money is going Most of it so far has been taken up with what I would call encumbrances in other words do-outs loans and other needs that Iran has Those fall mainly in the economic arena They need to recapitalize their whole oil infrastructure which has deteriorated if they're going to do something with that They have a lot of obligations in debts that they need to pay So the actual--we can go into this in more detail in a classified setting but what has actually flowed to the Quds Force let's say has not been very much And bear in mind that even during the period of heavy sanctions the Quds Force the IRGC the Republican Guards and the Quds Force specifically were--they were funded and the Iranians found a way to sustain them And of course they themselves have business interests by which they generate their own income Senator BLUNT I think that last point is the best point Even when Iran didn't have whatever amount of this money they get-- say they get a tenth of the purported $100 billion Even when they didn't have money they were able to fund terrorism I think whatever percentage of that money comes back to them the argument we sometimes hear that well they'll build schools and hospitals and pay debts--they could have done all those things before they VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00063 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 60 got this money as well and they still found money to finance terror efforts all over the neighborhood that they're in and outside that neighborhood Thank you Mr Chairman Chairman BURR Thank you Senator Blunt Senator Cotton Senator COTTON Thank you gentlemen for appearing here We frequently get to talk in private not often in public So let me associate myself with the comments of so many other members of this committee in thanking you not only for your service--Director Clapper in particular for your many years of long service--for the service of the men and women that you represent Director Brennan you stated earlier in response to Senator Heinrich we have not seen as much violence instability and interstate conflict in the Middle East in I believe the time period was your lifetime Director BRENNAN I think I said 50 years which is less than my lifetime Senator COTTON Why do you think that is What are the key drivers that's causing all that Director BRENNAN Well I think it's been five years now since the Arab Spring started to take root which had a very traumatic impact on governments throughout the region and the street became alive And Al-Qaeda and terrorist organizations did not trigger that but they have taken full advantage of it So the instability that we see in Libya and Yemen and Syria certainly was an outgrowth of the Arab Spring and the turnover in governments in Libya and Yemen So this is pitting individuals from different areas of the country of ethnic backgrounds that might be different than the government's There are sectarian tensions that are playing out All these things that were repressed because of the authoritarian governments that were in power for many years and once their control was shaken I think it then loosed this popular reaction that now is finding expression in basically civil war sectarian conflict and challenges against the government A lot of these governments do not have the political institutions nor the ability to address the many many challenges political economic and social in the region Finally as you well know a lot of these countries were carved out of previous colonial realms and therefore were almost patchworks of people of various backgrounds that now are finding ways to fight among themselves Senator COTTON Thank you Director Comey I want to address electronic communication transaction records I've introduced legislation to rectify a problem commonly known as the ''ECTR fix '' The legislation would clarify the government can obtain specified sets of electronic communication transaction records and fix an oversight made in an earlier law What's your position and what is the position of the FBI on the need for this fix Director COMEY We need it very much and it's actually quite an ordinary fix It's necessary because of what I believe is a typo in the 1993 statute that has led to some companies interpreting it in VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00064 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 61 a way I don't believe Congress ever intended So it is ordinary but it affects our work in a very very big and practical way Senator COTTON Would you characterize that as a top legislative priority for the FBI Director COMEY Yes Senator COTTON Thank you General Stewart I want to turn to North Korea's recent nuclear test The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization has not reported any collection of xenon or other nuclear particulates Are you aware of any nuclear particulates collected from the test General STEWART Thank you for letting me participate Laughter I have 10 questions I'd like to answer and that's not one of them But I appreciate the opportunity We have not at this point detected any particulates that would characterize this device Senator COTTON What does that tell us then about North Korean containment vessels and technology General STEWART Very robust capability to deceive contain hide their full capability and capacity And I'd like to talk about this some more in closed hearing about both our capability and what we're seeing that they're doing Senator COTTON Thank you I believe we'll have a chance to do that soon Director Brennan I want to return in closing here to your exchange with Senator Wyden You mentioned the removal of a CIA document from the shared space in violation of a memorandum of understanding with this committee Has any of this committee or staffer ever apologized to you for the removal of that document Director BRENNAN No Senator Senator COTTON Do you believe that that was a violation of the MOU that the agency and this committee had Director BRENNAN I believe it was inconsistent with the understanding that we had the common understanding yes Senator COTTON Has that document been returned to you Director BRENNAN I will have to check on that Senator Senator COTTON Handling of classified information is a very serious matter right Director BRENNAN Yes Senator COTTON Thank you Chairman BURR I thank all Senators We're going to have a second round It's going to start in the same order as the first one The second round will consist of one question or two minutes whichever happens fastest And it's my intent that we will be out of here shortly Again I thank our witnesses General Stewart you were recognized too soon because I have a question for you I'm not sure it's in the 10 questions that you would like to answer Assessing where we are today in Iraq Share with me what Iraq looks like at the end of this year as it relates to being different if at all General STEWART The Kurds in northern Iraq solidify their positions They probably won't move any further south because it's not in their interest to move south The Shia militia retains control over the central part of Iraq moving out west just a bit We con- VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00065 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 62 solidate our gains in Ramadi The Sunni forces and Iraqi forces consolidate their gains in Ramadi begin to move in to secure the corridors moving from Hit up to Haditha possibly isolating beginning the isolation effort around Mosul But in the western part of Iraq I'm not optimistic that we will have done much to move ISIL forces out of that region Chairman BURR And doubtful that Mosul will change hands in this calendar year General STEWART I am not betting on that Senator Chairman BURR Thank you General General STEWART I think it'll be very difficult to both isolate and conduct a clearing operation that would look like the securing of Mosul this year Chairman BURR Thank you General Stewart Vice Chairman Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Director Comey I want to thank you You really are a man of principle and you stand up for what you believe and it's very much appreciated Last year I think some of us received a report from the FBI in March of 2015 that showed that individuals on the FBI terrorist watch list attempted over a 10-year period to buy a gun or explosive over 2 000 times and they were successful 91 percent of the time Could you describe the standard used by the FBI to make sure that only individuals who pose a threat to national security are placed on the FBI's terrorist screening database Director COMEY Thank you Senator I'll try and do it briefly There's an extensive process to vet the information around an individual to see if they meet our threshold which I think is reason to believe--reasonable basis to believe they're involved in terrorist activity to then put them on the watch list Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Can you describe here the safeguards to ensure that the FBI minimizes false positives That means making sure that innocent Americans aren't placed on the terrorist screening database Director COMEY Probably in two directions One from our own direction is a constant effort to make sure our records are accurate because false positives simply waste our resources Then from the other direction in the last year the Department of Justice has driven the creation of a redress procedure So if anyone thinks they were wrongly placed on the list there's a process through which they can challenge that Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Thank you Mr Brennan I want to go back to Afghanistan for a minute Talk a little bit about Al-Qaeda's presence in the country and whether it's increasing or not and ISIL's influence in the country And how probable is the emergence of an ISIL stronghold in Afghanistan Director BRENNAN Al-Qaeda there's probably about maybe 100 or so somewhere in that area of Al-Qaeda members in the eastern part of Afghanistan The leader there is an individual by the name of Farouq Al-Qatari and they have married up as I said with some of the other militant organizations in the area including the Taliban So they continue to ply their trade on the ground inside of Afghanistan VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00066 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 63 But we're concerned they can regenerate in that Afghan-Pak border region which is why we need to maintain the intelligence collection as well as working with our Afghan and Pak partners ISIL has been able to take advantage of some elements within the Taliban that have been disenchanted with the organization So ISIL is seen as a threat certainly by Afghan officials When I traveled over to Afghanistan just two months ago it was one of the real concerns they had that ISIL is planting the flag in different parts of Afghanistan and they are now seen as a competer a competitor to some of the existing militant and terrorist organizations there Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Stop there How do you assess that Director BRENNAN We assess it based on our---- Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN No no not the methodology But in the vernacular how big a deal is that Director BRENNAN It's a concern ISIL probably has several hundred members or so inside of Afghanistan I would estimate And it is distributed They have had some setbacks there as they have gone up against some of the other militant organizations But it is a concern Just like we see these various franchises growing in places like Indonesia or Nigeria Somalia Yemen Libya we see the same thing in South Asia Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Some time ago we did a four-corners intelligence trip that went to Afghanistan and I had the privilege of spending some time with women parliamentarians I was amazed at their strength and the fact that they were going to survive and the Taliban was not going to come back Now as I watch the developments happening there the worry goes up and up and up and you see these terrible things being done to women again and also school children who happen to be girls I wonder whether we can make sufficient progress in the next decade or so Do you have any assessment on that Director BRENNAN As you point out I think the Afghan people are a very resilient people There have been thousands of Afghans who have given their lives for the future of that country That's why we want to continue to work very closely with them their intelligence security military organizations that are there They face a host of challenges Foreign assistance is critically important both on the military front as well as on the economic side But President Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah they need to make sure that their government is able to address the concerns of the Afghan people across the broad range of areas But as you point out the Afghan people are some of the bravest people that we have---- Chairman BURR As the Vice Chair has worked five questions into the one-question round I don't question the strength of women I can assure you of that Senator Wyden Senator WYDEN Thank you Mr Chairman I will not incur the wrath of the Chairman I will stick to one Director Clapper I wanted to ask you a question about encryption I'm not sure you're familiar with the report Maybe already got it It's brand new written by an independent group It's on encryption and the title of it is ''Don't Panic '' Matt Olsen who VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00067 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 64 we all have enormous respect for was very involved the former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center I'm struck by this because I think when you get into the nuts and bolts of it obviously encryption is available all around the world often very cheaply The basic thesis in this report is that with wireless connectivity and sensors and the like there are going to be more opportunities to prevent our country from going dark My question to you would be Because of Matt Olsen's involvement and the experts involved in this I would like to have your team take a look at this report and give us an analysis within an agreed-upon time maybe 60 days I would ideally like an unclassified version Maybe if it has a classified annex that would be fine Would that be something you could agree today I think this is really a breakthrough report in my view given the cross section of experts involved Is that something that you could do for us Director CLAPPER Sure we'll do that Senator WYDEN Great Thank you very much Thank you Mr Chairman Chairman BURR Senator King Senator KING Thank you I have one quick comment and one question Director Clapper there's been a lot of praise heaped upon you today I'd like to join in that In my study of American history the more I read the more I appreciate Washington not for necessarily the war and the presiding over the Constitutional Convention but his role as the first President establishing precedents and sort of how this whole enterprise would function I realize you're not the first Director of National Intelligence but I think by your tenure and your character and your intelligence and your experience you have served a similar function in really establishing how this entity should operate and will operate in the future For that I want to profoundly compliment and thank you I think you've helped to create an institution that will serve this country well for some period of time That's my comment My question is a very broad one and I don't think it's one that we can answer here today You comment in your report that Sunni violent extremism has been on an upward trajectory since the seventies More groups have more safe havens than in any other time in history We've killed 20 000 members of ISIS and yet we now know that more than 36 000 foreign fighters have gone to join ISIS The point is we're dealing with a hydra here where we cut off one head and two grow back I wonder if it isn't time to stop and say do we need a new strategy other than trying to just kill our enemies as they arise I'm thinking of George Kennan and the strategy of containment not saying that that's the right strategy but that there was a sort of comprehensive strategy rather than an ad hoc dealing with each individual attack or crisis I would just suggest that it seems to me this would be a role maybe at the end of this administration or the beginning of the next administration to think about how do we deal with Sunni extremism and how do we develop a strategy that involves other countries particularly Sunni countries that can try to get at the roots of this instead of just the tactics Your thoughts VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00068 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER 65 Director CLAPPER Senator King I think you've hit on a very important very crucial point By the time you get into our business where we're trying to track down terrorists who are bent on doing harm to us it's way late What really needs to be focused on are what are the fundamental systemic conditions that give rise to this You can kind of rattle off large ungoverned spaces a place awash in weapons the population bulge of young unemployed and frustrated males to whom such propaganda appeals What has to be gotten at fundamentally while we're doing our thing of collecting intelligence and taking people off the battlefield is what are the root causes that give rise to this phenomenon of extreme jihadism Senator KING Thank you I hope this discussion can continue Thank you Mr Chairman Chairman BURR Thank you Senator King Senator Cotton Senator COTTON Is it one question or two minutes whichever is longer Chairman BURR Whichever comes first Senator COTTON Can I take the Vice Chair Vice Chairman FEINSTEIN Oh you get no sympathy from me Senator COTTON I had a long series of adversarial prosecutorial questions for each of you that I now can't ask since I'll be stopped after the first one Admiral Rogers I will address briefly Section 702 of FISA which expires if I'm not mistaken at the end of next year Section 702 authorizes the government to target non-U S persons reasonably believed to be outside the U S for purposes of acquiring foreign intelligence information I believe that Section 702 is a vital national security tool It's constitutional It has multiple layers of oversight In 2012 DNI Clapper wrote to Congress requesting a straight reauthorization of Title 7 which would include 702 Do you believe that Congress should pass a straight reauthorization of Section 702 Admiral ROGERS I do believe we need to continue 702 Senator COTTON Thank you I converted a long series of adversarial questions into a speech and then asked if you agreed with my speech Chairman BURR I will follow up the line of questioning just to say this that the committee will take up 702 very quickly not from the standpoint of the legislation but from the standpoint of the preparation that we need to do in educating and having Admiral Rogers and others bring us up to speed on the usefulness and any tweaks that might have to be made But I daresay this is something that I think Director Clapper has said before We cannot do without this This is absolutely crucial It's been at the centerpiece of a lot of things If I could before we end go back to encryption since it was brought up I've had more district attorneys come to me about the encryption issue than I have the individuals at this table The district attorneys have come to me because they're beginning to get to a situation where they can't prosecute cases This is town by town city by city county by county and state by state It ranges VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00069 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN 66 from Cy Vance in New York to a rural town of 2 000 in North Carolina It's something we need to take seriously One of the responsibilities of this committee is to make sure those of you at the table and those that complete the complement of our intelligence community have the tools through how we authorize that you need The traditional tools I see as no different than I look at encryption and say we need to provide a tool for you to have the access to that information when the courts give you permission to do it I could care less how that's accomplished It is I think the priority--and I think I can speak for the Vice Chairman It is the priority of both of us that this be voluntary But if in fact it's not something we can achieve the balance on voluntarily then I feel like it's the committee's responsibility to pursue it in any fashion we can and I intend personally--I won't commit the committee to do it--to pursue that because I think it is invaluable in the future I fear that this is not the toughest decision we're going to make based upon how technology might impact the world we're in The American people expect us Director Comey to this year exceed 72 individuals that you incarcerate before they commit a lone wolf event You're on track to probably do that based upon the beginning of this year and based upon intent I'm not sure that we can turn around and say well we only got 11 of them because we couldn't see inside the communications of the other 60-some and America you're out of luck You won't stand for it I won't stand for it the American people won't stand for it So I hope--we're working with the administration and hopefully we can all work towards the same end goal I want to take one last opportunity to thank each of you but more importantly the folks that work for you and work for the American people At any given point in time everybody at the table's workforce has been challenged to work 24-7 to address events that happened over the worst times I might say Over the holidays as we went through Christmas I can't imagine what the Bureau was doing I can't imagine Admiral Rogers what you were going through John I can't imagine what the CIA was going through trying to track down the number of threat streams that were out there and that culminates with Director Clapper So I don't think anybody had a real comfortable holiday season this year But the fact is we got through it without an event and I don't think many of us would have bet that that would have been the outcome but we did And now we're focused on tomorrow not yesterday My hope is that we will continue to do it and to do it successfully With that I will tell you how much we look forward to seeing all of you again on Thursday and this hearing's adjourned Whereupon at 4 28 p m the hearing was adjourned DeShaun on LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER AE VerDate Sep 11 2014 13 08 May 01 2017 Jkt 024851 PO 00000 Frm 00070 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6611 C DOCS 20544 TXT SHAWN This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu