E3 UNCLASSIFIED PTQ7603 RELEASED IN PART Bl 1 4 D PTQ7603 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EAP-01 TOKYO 03524 080946Z ACDA-08 ACDE-OO AID-OO ACQ-01 ClAE-OO SRPP-OO DS-OO IM-01 FBIE-OO H-01 ADS-OO L-01 NSAE-OO NSCE-OO OMB-01 PM-OO PRS-OO CIO-OO P-OO SP-OO USIE-OO PMB-OO DSCC-OO PRM-01 DRL-04 020W ------------------3BA7Ec 080946Z 38 R 080915Z MAY 98 FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9405 INFO AMEMBASSY JAKARTA INFO LOG-OO DOEE-OO INR-OO PA-OO T-OO SAS-OO DODE-OO TEDE-OO OPIC-01 TRSE-OO G-OO CON F IDE N T I A L TOKYO 003524 E O 12958 DECL 05 08 10 TAGS PREL PGOV PINT ID JA SUBJECT SOEHARTO I I II OUT BY YEAR END II Bl REF TOKYO 1838 CLASSIFIED BY NEIL E SILVER POLMINCOUNS EMBASSY TOKYO REASON 1 5 D r1 e ON MAY 8 WE DISCUSSED THE INDONESIA SITUATION WITH 7 SAID H E - W A - S - F O L- L- O W I N- G-- CL -O -S E L Y T HE -- S - C AL- - E - -- F RE - -QUE N C Y -- - AN - D -- C -' O MP O js I TI ON CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 TOKYO 03524 080946Z OF THE ANTI-SOEHARTO DEMONSTRATIONS THE MOST IMPORTANT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES E LAIDGUERA CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON 1 4 D DECLASSIFY AFTER 7 MAY 2023 DATE CASE ID 17 NOV 2006 200503180 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED POTENTIAL CHANGE WOULD BE WHEN LARGE GROUPS OF NON-STUDENTS HOUSEWIJPYES AND UNEMPLOYED MEN PARTICULARLY JOINED THE DEMONSTRATIONS THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR THOUGHT WHEN THAT HAPPENED THE DEMONSTRATIONS COULD QUIC KL Y RE A C H -A CRITICAL MASS THAT WOULD PROMPT SOEHARTO TO ORDER THE ARMY TO CLAMP DOWN THIS WOULD FORCE THE ARMED FORCES LEADERSHIP ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SPLIT ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION TO DECIDE HOW COMMITTED IT WAS TO SOEHARTO I 2 C THE ARMED FORCES LEADERSHIP WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF A BASIC SPLIT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE CURRENT DEMONSTRATIONS SAID COMMANDER IN CHIEF WIRANTO ALREADY INSTRUCTED BY SOEHARTO TO CLAMP DOWN ON THE DEMONSTRATORS WAS WALKING A TIGHTROPE WIRANTO HAD SENT WARNINGS TO THE STUDENTS NOT TO TAKE THEIR DEMONSTRATIONS TO THE STREET BUT AT THE SAME TIME HE WAS TELLING THEM THE ARMED FORCES WERE NOT HOSTILE ISAID HE HAD RECEIVED TODAY AN E-MAIL FROM JAKARTA REPORTING THAT WIRANT01S DEPUTY ARMED FORCES CHIEF FOR SOCIAL AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS SUSILO BANBANG HAD COMMENTED NOT PUBLICLY THAT IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONVENE THE NATIONAL CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY TO DECIDE THE COUNTRYIS FUTURE PRESUMABLY BY REPLACING SOEHARTO IF TRUE PERHAPS THIS SIGNALED THE INTENTIONS OF THE IIWIRANTO WING II OF THE ARMED FORCES THOUGHT I I Bl Bl I I I 3 eC ON THE OTHER HAND ARMY STRATEGIC RESERVE COMMANDER AND SOEHARTO SON IN LAW PRABOWO WAS DOING HIS BEST TO PREVENT DEMONSTRATIONS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL IN JAKARTA WHERE ANY II FINAL SHOWDOWN II WOULD TAKE PLACE PRABOWO WAS ALSO ENGAGED IN A POWER STRUGGLE WITH WIRANTO WHICH WOULD REACH A CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 TOKYO 03524 080946Z t1MOMENT OF TRUTHtI WHEN SOEHARTO ORDERED AN ARMY CRACKDOWN IN THE FACE OF MASS DEMONSTRATIONS THE QUESTION WAS NOT IF THIS MOMENT WOULD COME BUT WHEN THOUGHT I I Bl THE GROUP HAD CONCLUDED RECENTLY THAT SOEHARTO IS REGIME WOULD NOT SURVIVE THE SERIES OF DEMONSTRATIONS THAT L--_ _ _ _ - - J UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED WOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXPAND IN COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS THIS DID 'NOT mAN SOEHARTO WOULD BE OVERTHROWN OR FORCED TO STEP DOWN IN THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO BUT HE WOULD MOST LIKELY NO LONGER BE INDONESIA'S LEADER BY THE END OF THIS YEAR THE GROUP CONCLUDED 5 C AS IN REFTEL REPORT WE PROVIDEI COMMENTS AS THE VIEWS OF A LONGSTANDINh-G-A Al E'I' I M IC - O tS S E ' R v I i 'R -- O E '---' INDONESIAN AFFAIRS LAFLEUR CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED Bl This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu