3 9621 438-338- 00m 10 SW 86 V83 EIHJ smsaNoaNI trans A008 asvssaw JEINISWOO SI SlHi s 10 NOLLOES LSBEJIG swam-Ham AHVLHIW I'wms mam umnwwoo aowaenmml 3H1 massadaa Imamml mm aanswa OJ 51de SI 130333 awvwosvaa A3319 GNV saomaas AHVLHIIN 3HJ am 10 1 503 13 Nouonaoad 3H1 50 SI asvssaw SIHL 38H lgifEIXLth- Zt 0591' LE Dram 091st #317 am 01 sxanroa NOLBNIHSVM w wa 86 AVW ZOZEZLZ HBUVEH Dries 3911 33 1 sun MUM-4 C 3 6 WIRANTO AND OTHER REFORM-MINDED OFFICERS SEEMINGLY ARE WELL PLACED TO LAUNCH MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POLITICAL SYSTEM THEY APPEAR INTENT ON REVISING LEGAL AND POLITICAL LAWS AND CONTINUING INFORMAL MILITARY DISCUSSIONS WITH STUDENTS AND OTHER GROUPS EVEN SO THE MILITARY HAS HAD MIXED SUCCESS CONVINCING CRITICS OF ITS FIRM COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC REFORM ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ITS REFUSAL TO RENOUNCE SOEHARTO MILITARY REPRESENTATIVES ALSO TRADITIONALLY HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT TOO-RAPID DEMOCRATIC REFORM WHICH THEY FEAR COULD DESTABILIZE THE NATION 4 DELICATE BALANCING TASK GEN ACTIONS THUS FAR UNDERSCORE A STRONG AND ABIDING INTEREST IN PRESERVING THE CURRENT POLITICAL SYSTEM AND INTERNAL STABILITY WHILE ACCOMMODATING STRONG POPULAR DEMANDS FOR CHANGE FORMING A STUDY GROUP LAST YEAR TO LOOK AT DEMOCRATIC REFORMS IN THE POST-SOEHARTO ERA HE RECOGNIZED EARLY ON HIS IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE TRANSITION OF POWER HOWEVER HE STILL FACES MULTIPLE CHALLENGES WITH RIVALS LIKE PRABOWO SEEKING TO UNDERMINE HIS POSITION HE HAS SURVIVED THIS DIFFICULT PERIOD BY CAREFULLY NURTURING MILITARY CONSENSUS AND LOYALTY TO THE PRESIDENCY AND THE HIS STRONG EXPRESSIONS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR HABIBIE UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PART OF THIS CALCULATED EFFORT WIRANTO AND HIS MILITARY BACKERS MOST LIKELY WANT TO REPLACE HABIBIE SOON ALTHOUGH HE IS YULNERABLE TO REPLACEMENT UNDER HABIBIE WIRANTO COULD SUCCEED THE NEW PRESIDENT THROUGH A FORTHCOMING ASSEMBLY VOTE 5 WITH HABIBIE THE MILITARY ALSO CONFRONTB THE PROBLEM OF AN UNPOPULAR HABIBIE PRESIDENCY WHILE PLEDGING SUPPORT GEN WIRANTO DID NOT FAVOR VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND PROBABLY SEES HIM As A HINDRANCE TO REFORM AND STABILITY AT LEAST BOME SENIOR OFFICERS ARE INCLINED TO CDNVENE A SPECIAL SESSION OF THE CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY TO CHOOSE A MORE VIABLE SUCCESSOR ESPECIALLY IF HABIBIE SEEKS TO STAY ON TO FINISH CURRENT Pg 5 is denied in 11111 9399 3 5-YEAR TERM IN 2003 SECRET Page 4 12 MILITARY EMBRACING REFORM THE MILITARY IS DEVELOPING A DETAILED REFORM AGENDA BASED ON INPUT FROM THE UNIVERSITIES WHICH COVERS ECONOMIC POLITICAL AND LEGAL MATTERS INDONESIAN MILITARY PLANNERS HAVE FURTHER BROKEN DOWN THE AGENDA INTO SHORT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES SHORT TERM MILITARY LEADERS WILL ENCOURAGE THE PARLIAMENT TO TAKE THE LEAD IN INSTALLING CHECKS AND BALANCES TO AVOID AN UNDUE CONCENTRATION OF EXECUTIVE AUTHORITY THE PARLIAMENT WOULD PLAY A LARGER ROLE BECOMING THE VEHICLE FOR REFORM MILITARY REPRESENTATIVES IN PARLIAMENT HAVE TAKEN THE LEAD IN PROMOTING A WIDE-RANGING REFORM THEIR GOAL REPORTEDLY IS TO MAKE THE INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT AS DEMOCRATIC AND AS POWERFUL AS ITS WESTERN COUNTERPARTS - MEDIUM TERM A KEY OBJECTIVE IS REVISING THE CONTROVERSIAL FIVE POLITICAL LAWS THAT IN THE PAST HAD SERIOUSLY CIRCUMSCRIBED THE ACTIVITIES OF OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES THE MILITARY HOPES TO HAVE THE NEW RULES IN PLACE BY 2001 IN TIME FOR THE NEXT SCHEDULED PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - LONG TERM THE MILITARY FORESEES THE NEED TO MAKE CORRECTIONS ON ISSUES SUCH AS LIMITING THE NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS MI 13 CHRONOLOGY OF RECENT MILITARY ACTIONS -- 14 MAY ARMED FORCES COMMANDER WIRANTO CONVENED A MEETING OF SENIOR OFFICERS TO GAIN CONSENSUS ON How TO REACT TO THE GROWING THE POSSIBILITY OF DISSENSION LOOMED BETWEEN PRO-WIRANTO AND PRO-PRABOWO FACTIONS -- 15 MAY WIRANTO BRIEFED SOEHARTO ON THE SITUATION UPON THE RETURN FROM THE MIDDLE EAST BUT APPARENTLY DID NOT SUGGEST THAT HE STEP DOWN -- 16 MAY WITH CONCURRENCE SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT HARMOKO A SPECIAL SESSION OF 55639 Page 5 THE CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY AND A CABINET THE PRESIDENT SOEHARTO AGREEDTO CABINET CHANGES BUT GAVE NO INDICATION HE WOULD STEP DOWN -- 16 MAY A RUMOR SURFACED THAT SOME SENIOR OFFICERS WERE PLOTTING BEHIND BACK TO UNDERMENE POSITION -- 17 MAY A MEETING WAS CALLED TO RESOLVE TENSIONS BETWEEN THE FACTIONS LED BY WIRANTO AND PRABOIWO THE CHOICE WAS TO BROADEN MANDATE OR TO FIND ANOTHER CANDIDATE ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH SIDES ULTIMATELY WIRANTO REMAINED ARMED FORCES COMMANDER AND PRABOWO CLAIMED THAT NO DIVISION OF LOYALTY OCCURRED WITHIN THE MILITARY 18 MAY WIRANTO SURPRISED SOME BY MAKING PUBLIC HIS STATEMENT CRITICIZING CALL FOR RESIGNATION -- 19 MAY SOEHARTO MADE A SPEECH MDICATING HIS INTENTION TO RESIGN BUT LEAVING UNSTATED THE EXACT TIMIING AND DETAILS OF SUCCESSION 20 MAY A STRONG SHOW OF FORCE BY THE MILITARY CAUSED OPPOSITION GROUPS TO CALL OFF A PLANNED DAY OF PROTEST AGAINST SOEHARTO WIRANTO WAS RUMORED TO HAVE ENCOURAGED SOEHARTO TO DEFINE THE ELECTION PROCESS -- 21 MAY SOEHARTO STEPPED DOWN VICE PRESIDENT HABIBIE BECAME BEGINNING OF SECTION 003 PRESIDENT WIRANTO AND PRABOWO BIOTH PLEDGED SUPPORT TO HABIBIE 14 f6 FUTURE DIRECTIONS FURTHER IIFFICULTIES BETWEEN MILITARY LEADERS AND STUDENTS APPEAR INEVITABLE ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF THE DIFFERINO PERSPECTIVES AND LINGERIING SUSPICIONS BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS ALTHOUGH THE STUDENTS ANID OTHER OPPOSITION FACTIONS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGE THE TRADITIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN POLITICS ARMY ABOUT MAINTAINING UNLIKELY TO SOON RELINQUISH THEIR GOVERNMENT OVERSIGHT ROLE MILITARY LEADERS REALIZE THAT RESTORING ORDER AND STABILITY WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT THE TACIT ACOUIESCENCE OF THE MAJOR PRODEMOCRACY STUDENT SROIIJPS WIRANTO AND HIS GENERALS ACKNOWLEDGE THE IMPERATIME TO ACCOMMODATE WIDE-RANGING DEMOCRATIC REFORMS INCLUDING OPEN ELECTIONS AND FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND EXPRESSION ULTIMATELY THE MILITARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH FOR A BROAD CONSENSUS ON THE NEXT NATIONAL LEADERSHIP BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN GOVERNING THE NATION 10 USC 424 9399 7 DERWED DECLASSIFY ST #4512 page 8 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu