mm I 0 424 USC 424 CDS USC HEADER 2618052 MAY 98 USC 3024 1 ZEM CONTROLS WONG USC 424 SECTION 1 OF 6 THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE BODY SUBJ DIA COMMONWEALTH ASSESSMENT 046-98l26 MAY 93 INDONESIA MILITARY ENTERING THE POST-SOEHARTO ERA U FRY POWER PLAY IN MONTENEGRO U LIBYA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL RADARS FOR AIR DEFENSE S INDONESIA MILITARY ENTERING THE POST-SOEHARTO ERA U AS OF 21002 21 MAY 98 C 115 7424 l page 2 HERET- USC 424 C 3 AND OTHER REFORM-MINOED OFFICERS SEEMINGLY ARE WELL PLACED TO LAUNCH MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POLITICAL SYSTEM THEY APPEAR INTENT ON REVISING LEGAL AND POLITICAL LAWS AND CONTINUING INFORMAL MILITARY DISCUSSIONS WITH STUDENTS AND OTHER GROUPS EVEN SO THE MILITARY HAS HAD MIXED SUCCESS CONVINCING CRITICS OF ITS FIRM COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC REFORM ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ITS REFUSAL TO RENOUNCE SOEHARTO MILITARY REPRESENTATIVES ALSO TRADITIONALLY HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT TOO-RAPID DEMOCRATIC REFORM WHICH THEY FEAR COULD DESTABILIZE THE NATION D 4 Ci DELICATE BALANCING TASK GEN ACTIONS THUS FAR UNDERSCORE A STRONG AND ABIDING INTEREST IN PRESERVING THE CURRENT POLITICAL SYSTEM AND INTERNAL STABILITY WHILE ACCOMMODATING STRONG POPULAR DEMANDS FOR CHANGE FORMING A STUDY GROUP LAST YEAR TO LOOK AT DEMOCRATIC REFORMS IN THE POST-SOEHARTO ERA HE RECOGNIZED EARLY ON HIS IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE TRANSITION OF POWER HOWEVER HE STILL FACES MULTIPLE CHALLENGES WITH RIVALS LIKE PRABOWO SEEKING TO UNDERMINE HIS POSITION HE HAS SURVIVED THIS DIFFICULT PERIOD BY CAREFULLY NURTURING MILITARY CONSENSUS AND LOYALTY TO THE PRESIDENCY AND THE HIS STRONG EXPRESSIONS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR HABIBIE UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PART OF THIS CALCULATED EFFORT WIRANTO AND HIS MILITARY BACKERS MOST LIKELY WANT TO REPLACE HABIBIE SOON ALTHOUGH HE IS VULNERABLE TO REPLACEMENT UNDER HABIBIE WIRANTO COULD SUCCEED THE NEW PRESIDENT THROUGH A FORTHCOMING ASSEMBLY VOTE 5 1-9 PROBLEMS WITH HABIBIE THE MILITARY ALSO CONFRONTS THE PROBLEM OF AN UNPOPULAR HABIBIE PRESIDENCY WHILE PLEDGING SUPPORT GEN WIRANTO DID NOT FAVOR VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND PROBABLY SEES HIM AS A HINDRANCE TO REFORM AND STABILITY AT LEAST 15 7 424 page 3 13 7424 SOME SENIOR OFFICERS ARE INCLINED TO CONVENE A SPECIAL SESSION OF THE CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY TO CHOOSE A MORE VIABLE SUCCESSOR ESPECIALLY IF HABIBI SEEKS TO STAY ON TO FINISH CURRENT 5-YEAR TERM IN 2003 C USC 424 93934 a ed 171'1 3 31 OI GNV NVCEIW NI LOO ONIMVHHEI SHOIHSS 'SnleVO SNIHOHVW smaums OJ TIIM 3H L unsaa 8V GEMENEH OJ lnzlEDVEd Oi A81 AVW HVEH MIHHOES 380W ma Oi SI LSEIHND -69 366 EIH SAEIHEIEI ANVIN 3H1 JCINO LHBIIN LVHL SLNECIIONI SQOWHOOSIQ 081V EH 3H L NI N338 SVH ONOMOHGHA N39 H o'iS 3H1 CINV 3H1 Adlisnf CINV ELVEIECIOW 3H L ENIWHBUNH Oi NV NE OJ WIH SHOWHH SHOW 10 BHJ NI 10 Oi 30 6 in 3H1 81250633 ENIWHEIGNFI O L 82339 3H LVHL QAVH SEOWHH 33030 GEWHV Oi SVH 3H NO NIVHLS 030ch mavam EAVH swims maoaa - 'saaww ABM Gear's t mm 3511 age- Human usc 424 MIGHT EVEN CONSIDER FIRING ON RIOTERS AS A LAST OPTION TO OUELL DISTU RBANCES 12 TCTMILITARY EMBRACING REFORM THE MILITARY IS DEVELOPING A DETAILED REFORM AGENDA BASED ON INPUT FROM THE UNIVERSITIES WHICH COVERS ECONOMIC POLITICAL AND LEGAL MATTERS INDONESIAN MILITARY PLANNERS HAVE FURTHER BROKEN DOWN THE AGENDA INTO SHORT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES -- SHORT TERM MILITARY LEADERS WILL ENCOURAGE THE PARLIAMENT TO TAKE THE LEAD IN INSTALLING CHECKS AND BALANCES TO AVOID AN UNDUE CONCENTRATION OF EXECUTIVE AUTHORITY THE PARLIAMENT WOULD PLAY A LARGER ROLE BECOMING THE VEHICLE FOR REFORM MILITARY REPRESENTATIVES IN PARLIAMENT HAVE TAKEN THE LEAD IN PROMOTING A WIDE-RANGING REFORM THEIR GOAL REPORTEDLY IS TO MAKE THE INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT AS DEMOCRATIC AND AS POWERFUL AS ITS WESTERN -- MEDIUM TERM A KEY OBJECTIVE IS REVISING THE CONTROVERSIAL FIVE POLITICAL LAWS THAT IN THE PAST HAD SERIOUSLY CIRCUMSCRIBED THE ACTIVITIES OF OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES THE MILITARY HOPES TO HAVE THE NEW RULES IN PLACE BY 2001 IN TIME FOR THE NEXT SCHEDULED PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -- LONG TERM THE MILITARY FORESEES THE NEED TO MAKE CORRECTIONS ON ISSUES SUCH AS LIMITING THE NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS II 13 10 CHRONOLOGY OF RECENT MILITARY ACTIONS 14 MAY ARMED FORCES COMMANDER WIRANTO CONVENED A MEETING OF SENIOR OFFICERS TO GAIN CONSENSUS ON HOW TO REACT TO THE GROWING THE POSSIBILITY OF DISSENSION LOOM ED BETWEEN PRO-WIRANTO AND PRO-PRABOWO FACTIONS -- 15 MAY WIRANTO BRIEFED SOEHARTO ON THE SITUATION UPON THE RETURN FROM THE MIDDLE EAST BUT APPARENTLY DID NOT SUGGEST THAT HE STEP DOWN USC 424 Page 5 424 - 15 MAY WITH CONCURRENCE SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT HARMOKO EXPLAINED THE A SPECIAL SESSION OF THE CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY AND A CABINET THE PRESIDENT SOEHARTO AGREED TO CABINET CHANGES BUT GAVE NO INDICATION HE WOULD STEP DOWN 16 MAY A RUMOR SURFACED THAT SOME SENIOR OFFICERS WERE PLOTTING BEHIND BACK TO UNDERMINE POSITION -- 17 MAY A MEETING WAS CALLED TO RESOLVE TENSIONS BETWEEN THE FACTIONS LED BY WIRANTO AND PRABOWO THE CHOICE WAS TO BROADEN MANDATE OR TO FIND ANOTHER CANDIDATE ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH SIDES ULTIMATELY WIRANTO REMAINED ARMED FORCES COMMANDER AND PRABOWO CLAIMED THAT NO DIVISION OF LOYALTY OCCURRED WITHIN THE MILITARY -- 13 MAY WIRANTO SURPRISED SOME BY MAKING PUBLIC HIS STATEMENT CRITICIZING CALL FOR RESIGNATION 19 MAY SOEHARTO MADE A SPEECH INDICATING HIS INTENTION TO RESIGN BUT LEAVING UNSTATED THE EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS OF SUCCESSION -- 20 MAY A STRONG SHOW OF FORCE BY THE MILITARY CAUSED OPPOSITION GROUPS TO CALL OFF A PLANNED DAY OF PROTEST AGAINST SOEHARTO WIRANTO WAS RUMORED TO HAVE ENCOURAGED SOEHARTO TO DEFINE THE ELECTION PROCESS -- 21 MAY SOEHARTO STEPPED DOWN AND VICE PRESIDENT HABIBIE BECAME PRESIDENT WIRANTO AND PRABOWO BOTH PLEDGED SUPPORT TO HABIBIE 14 1CTFUTUREDIRECTIONS FURTHER DIFFICULTIES BETWEEN MILITARY LEADERS AND STUDENTS APPEAR INEVITABLE ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF THE DIFFERING PERSPECTIVES AND LINGERING SUSPICIONS BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS ALTHOUGH THE STUDENTS AND OTHER OPPOSITION FACTIONS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGE THE TRADITIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN POLITICS ARMY ABOUT MAINTAINING UNLIKELY TO SOON RELINOUISH THEIR GOVERNMENT OVERSIGHT ROLE NONETHELESS MILITARY LEADERS REALIZE THAT RESTORING ORDER AND STABILITY WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT THE TACIT ACQUIESCENCE OF THE MAJOR PRODEMOCRACY STUDENT GROUPS WIRANTO AND HIS GENERALS ACKNOWLEDGE THE IMPERATIVE TO ACCOMMODATE WIDE-RANGING DEMOCRATIC REFORMS INCLUDING OPEN ELECTIONS AND FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND BEGINNING OF SECTION 004 EXPRESSION ULTIMATELY THE MILITARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH FOR A BROAD CONSENSUS ON THE NEXT NATIONAL LEADERSHIP BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN GOVERNING THE NATION Pgs 8-12 are non mamm- usr 424 FCSPOHSIVC page 7 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu