UNCLASSIF IED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 E46 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ORIGIN OES-09 INFO LOG-OO AF-OO NEA-04 PM-10 DOEE-OO 086 R STATE ADS-OO ClAE-OO NSCE-OO EAP-OO CEQ-01 081249 AID-OO EB-OO NSF-02 EPA-04 PRS-01 INR-10 DINT-05 ARA-OO NAS-01 E-01 EUR-OO DODE-OO NSAE-OO INRE-OO T-01 SS-OO H-01 COME-OO ACDA-12 AS-01 DRAFTED BY OES ENV SBUTCHER APPROVED BY OES ENV ADSENS EPA OIA JKOEHLER NASA RWATSON L OES DKENNEDY IO T KFIEDLER ------------------075120 161419Z 20 R 152359Z MAR 88 ZEX FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO ALL DIPLOMATIC POSTS OIC-02 IO-19 L-03 USIE-OO NSAE-OO REVIEW AUTHORITY Theodore Sellin Senior Reviewer RELEASE IN FULLI UNCLAS STATE 081249 BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC E O 12356 N A SENV TPHY UNEP TAGS SUBJECT PROTECTION OF THE OZONE LAYER - SCIENTIFIC DEVELOPMENTS 1 THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST - SEE PARA 3 2 PARA 6 BELOW REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS ON GLOBAL AND POLAR OZONE MEASUREMENTS INDICATING THAT THERE HAS IN FACT BEEN A MEASURABLE DECREASE IN GLOBAL AND POLAR OZONE IN THE PAST DECADE THESE FINDINGS RECONFIRM THE IMPORTANCE OF ALL NATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY TO RATIFY AND IMPLEMENT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL ON SUBSTANCES THAT DEPLETE THE OZONE LAYER UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 STATE 081249 3 WHILE SOME HAVE CALLED FOR INCREASING THE STRINGENCY OF THE PROTOCOL PROVISIONS THE USG BELIEVES THE FIRST PRIORITY SHOULD BE TO COMPLETE THE RATIFICATIONS NECESSARY FOR THE PROTOCOL TO ENTER INTO FORCE ON THE UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 'Date 12 20 2016 UNCLASSIF ED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 TARGET DATE OF JANUARY 1 1989 THE PARTIES WILL THEN BE ABLE TO CONSIDER UNDER THE PROTOCOL PROCEDURES FOR REASSESSMENT OF THE PROTOCOLrs PROVISIONS ON THE BASIS OF SCIENTIFIC ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC INFORMATION WHETHER THE PROTOCOL PROVISIONS SHOULD BE ADJUSTED 4 ACTION REQUESTED EMBASSIES SHOULD BRING THESE FINDINGS TO THE ATTENTION OF APPROPRIATE HOST GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS INCLUDING FOREIGN MINISTRIES AND INFORM HOST GOVERNMENT SCIENTISTS OFFICIALS ABOUT THE POLAR OZONE WORKSHOP IN MAY 5 OZONE TRENDS PANEL REPORT IN 1985 TWO IMPORTANT REPORTS OF CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC OZONE WERE RELEASED THE FIRST REPORT WAS OF A LARGE UNANTICIPATED DECREASE IN SPRINGTIME ANTARCTIC OZONE OVER THE LAST DECADE THE SECOND REPORT BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WAS OF LARGE GLOBAL-SCALE DECREASES SINCE 1979 IN BOTH THE TOTAL COLUMN OZONE AND IN ITS CONCENTRATION NEAR 50 KM ALTITUDE WHILE WE WERE AWARE OF THESE REPORTS DURING THE 1986-87 NEGOTIATIONS ON THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL THE USG POSITION WAS BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIONS OF FQTURE DEPLETION RATHER THAN FINDINGS OF ALREADY-OBSERVED DEPLETION SINCE THE FINDINGS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS WERE 9NCONFIRMED IN OCTOBER 1986 NASA IN COLLABORATION WITH NOAA FAA WMO AND UNEP FORMED AN OZONE TRENDS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 STATE 081249 PANEL INVOLVING OVER 100 SCIENTISTS TO STUDY WHETHER CAREFULLY RE-EVALUATED GROUND-BASED AND SATELLITE DATA WOULD SUPPORT THESE FINDINGS 6 THE REPORT OF THE OZONE TRENDS PANEL WAS RELEASED ON MARCH 15 1988 THE KEY FINDINGS INCLUDE THERE IS UNDISPUTED OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE THAT THE A ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF GASES IMPORTANT IN CONTROLLING STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A GLOBAL SCALE BECAUSE OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES B MODELS PREDICT THAT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF TRACE GASES WOULD HAVE CAUSED A SMALL DECREASE IN OZONE GLOBALLY BETWEEN 1969 AND 1986 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 UN9LASSIfiED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 C ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM GROUND-BASED DOBSON INSTRUMENTS SHOWS MEASURABLE DECREASES FROM 1969 TO 1986 IN THE ANNUAL AVERAGE TOTAL COLUMN OZONE RANGING FROM 1 7 TO 3 0 AT LATITUDES BETWEEN 30 AND 64 DEGREES NORTH THE DECREASES RANGED FROM 2 3 TO 6 2 DURING THE WINTER AVERAGED FOR DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH D THE MODEL CALCULATIONS ARE BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED CHANGES IN COLUMN OZONE EXCEPT THAT OBSERVED DECREASES AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES IN WINTER ARE LARGER THAN THE PREDICTED DECREASES E AFTER COMPARING THE SBUV AND TOMS SATELLITE DATA WITH GROUND-BASED DOBSON MEASUREMENTS THE RESULTING COLUMN OZONE DATA AVERAGED BETWEEN 53 DEGREES SOUTH AND 53 DEGREES NORTH SHOW A DECREASE OF ABOUT 2 5 FROM 1978 TO 1985 F THE OBSERVED DECREASE IS PREDICTED TO HAVE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 STATE 081249 SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION 7 TO 2 FROM THE DECREASE IN SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD THE PREVIOUS REPORTS OF LARGE GLOBAL DECREASES SINCE G 1979 IN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE ABOUT 1 PER YEAR OR IN THE OZONE CONCENTRATION NEAR 50 KM ALTITUDE ABOUT 3 PER YEAR WERE ERRONEOUSLY LARGE BECAUSE OF INCORRECT ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE SATELLITE INSTRUMENTS H THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE SUDDEN AND UNEXPECTED DECRASE IN SPRINGTIME ANTARCTIC OZONE OVER THE LAST DECADE OZONE DECREASES OF MORE THAN 50 IN THE TOTAL COLUMN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED I THE TOTAL COLUMN OF OZONE IN THE AUSTRAL SPRING OF 1987 AT ALL LATITUDES SOUTH OF 60 DEGREES SOUTH WAS THE LOWEST SINCE MEASUREMENTS BEGAN 30 YEARS AGO J OZONE APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SINCE 1979 BY 5 MORE AT ALL LATITUDES SOUTH OF 60 DEGRESS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR K OR THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE STRONGLY INDICATES THAT UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 UNGLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 MAN-MADE CHLORINE SPECIES ARE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN OZONE WITHIN THE POLAR VORTEX COPIES OF THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE REPORT WILL BE POUCHED TO ALL POSTS 7 WORKSHOP ON POLAR OZONE MAY 9-13 1988 AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON POLAR OZONE COSPONSORED BY NASA NOAA NSF CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION WMO UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 05 AND THE BUT THE STATE 081249 UNEP WILL BE HELD AT SNOWMASS IN ASPEN COLORADO WORKSHOP WILL DEAL WITH ALL ASPECTS OF POLAR OZONE WITH EMPHASIS ON THE BEHAVIOR OF ANTARCTIC OZONE GOALS OF THE WORKSHOP ARE TO REVIEW AND SUMMARIZE THE LATEST FINDINGS ON POLAR OZONE IN SITU AND REMOTE MEASUREMENTS AND THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENTS UNDERSTAND THE ROLES OF DYNAMICS AND CHEMISTRY IN THE BEHAVIOR OF POLAR OZONE DETERMINE THE NATURE AND CAUSE OF SEASONAL AND YEAR TO YEAR CHANGES IN THE ANTARCTIC AND ARCTIC OZONE REVIEW NEW LABORATORY FINDINGS DISCUSS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE IDENTIFY IMPORTANT AREAS WHERE OUR UNDERSTANDING NEEDS NEEDS TO BE AUGMENTED 8 EMBASSIES ARE ALSO REQUESTED TO CALL THE WORKSHOP TO THE ATTENTION OF HOST GOVERNMENT SCIENTISTS OFFICIALS WHO MAY WISH TO PARTICIPATE AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO PRE-REGISTER ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN OPEN MEETING SPACE WILL BE LIMITED TO PRE-REGISTER PROVIDE NAME AFFILIATION ADDRESS AND TELEPHONE TO POLAR OZONE WORKSHOP DR ROBERT T WATSON CODE EE NASA HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON D C 20546 SHULTZ UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 UNCLASS FIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2008-03441 Doc No C17575095 Date 12 20 2016 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu