A GBP- GVI- Sla - v - n rt i' - -I O v lJo E J 1 v f' - - - - - - - - - 1 t DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY WASHINGTON D C February 27 2001 SECRETARY OFTHE TREASURY NIEMORANDUM FOR TIlE P SIDENT e FROM PoilllL O'Noll SUBJECT Global Climate Change Further to our discussion of global climate change this is what I believe you should do 1 Establish a predicate for creating the Bush Administration position on climate change Set up a btiefing to hear from the experts on the substance of the subject and to review the evolution of U S policy in international treaty development Use this occasion as a photo opportunity to foohlote the careful and deliberate consideration ofthe creation of your policy on climate change On the substance you should know that if the Kyoto treaty were fully implemented as agreed it would push out the ahnosphetic accumulation of greenhouse gases by eleven years In other words the currently projected accumulation for 2050 would occur in 2061 This is a trivial impact if the problem is real As you know I think this could be a very big problem For the U S full implementation of Kyoto would mean reducing our energy consumption from its projected level by more than 30% ill the 2008-2012 time period The reason for the large impact on the U S and the small impact on greenhouse gases is the lack of developing country inclusion in tilt coverage ofthe Kyoto treaty The limited impact of Kyoto on greenhouse gas concentrations is lllderstood by the analytic people in the environmental organizations but they SUppOlt Kyoto anyway believing it to be the nose under the tent and the only game in town 2 Establish a grOUP to develop a multifaceted approach to global climate change _' __oj __ A few days after your briefIng mmounce the fonnation of a group to do the following A 1 B Prepm'e a document for broad public use that spells out the scientific facts that we know for certain regarding greenhouse gas concentrations how they have changed over tune and the linkage between such gases and global climate change TIns document should also iriclude projections of greenhouse gas accumnlations associated changes in global climate and the assumptions that drive the changes e g energy intensity of developing cOlmtries the one hundred year half-life of greenhouse' gases etc To develop a process for achieving a consensus on the targeted lintit of greenhouse gas concentrations Oilly when we have tins number is it possible to faslnon a set of world interventions and actions that make economic and environmental sense C To develop a comprehensive catalog of information that describes where greenhouse gases are coming from by geography by energy source by all other sources volcmllc activity animals pipeline leakages etc D To develop a comprehensive catalog of possible actions including scientific work and technological innovations Each item in this' catalog should include an assessment of the cost to pursue the esmnated time to completion of the work the value to be gained in reduction of concentrations and the probability of success SOlne ofthe work in 2 A-D will be ongoing but you should ask for a first report so that you Gan use it as a basis for a speech on EmthDay E 3 Prepare an analysis of the available process options for amending or replacing the Kyoto treaty along with recoIll1llendations as to how best to engage the world COIll1llunity in a re-consideration mId replacement of the treaty with a plan that is grounded in science and auned at reducing concentrations rather than emissions Set out the Bush Administration policy on global climate change and begin taking action on the avenues developed in #2 2 -c'- ------------------------- ----------- Hopefully the major work needed to stake out the U S position can be completed in time for the continuing Kyoto treaty talks scheduled for this summer How to Get Started As is the case in the energy issue there are many departments and agencies which need to be engaged by this process ' You asked the Vice President to chair the energy group because of tlie cross-cutting nature of the problem Since energy and the enviromnent are in many ways the same problem you might consider adding the global climate change issue to the charge of the energy committee If you did so it would be the first time in my memory that a President would have said these subjects must be considered t gether -i side from the organizi tional assigmnent problem I wanted to give you my views on outside people who could be helpful as the administration works on these subjects i George Shultz is the best convenor of experts developer of policy positions I have ever known If you want a respected outside person to lead this work through the development stages he is the best Technical experts - Bill Merrill President of the Heinz Center for Science Economics and the Enviromnent is one of the most balanced unbiased environmental scientists I know He could lead the briefing that is suggested in item 1 You may know him He was the President of Texas A M Michael Oppenhairner is an enviromnental scientist at the Enviromnental Defense Fund He is also broadly respected by his peers Jared Cohen is the President of Carnegie Mellon University also an ' environmental scientist There are many other individuals outside the govermnent who would help if asked 3 --- - - - - ----------- -----------'--- -------------- February 28 2001 Identical memo hand delivered to the following person s per instmctions from Secretary O'NeilL Vice President Dick Cheney faxed on 2127 01 Secretaries Robert Zoellick - USTR Norman Mincta - Transportation Gale Norton - Intelior Clnistine Wlritman - EPA Donald Rumsfield - Defense Colin Powell- State Donald Evans - Cormnerce Condoleeza Rice - Rice sent by White House message This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu