UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Pa e 1 Current Handling EXDIS IN FULL Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channe - n a CONFIDENTIAL 8 PAGE 01 MOSCOW 32920 01 OF 04 1915542 ACTION 55-0 0 INFO LOG-00 OASY-OO ADS-00 CORE-00 FADC52 1915542 38 0 1914542 OCT 93 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9428 INFO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC IWEDIATE AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 032920 DECAPTIONED EXDIS FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE DEPT ALSO FOR WHITE HOUSE FOR E O 12356 TAGS OVIP CHRISTOPHER WARREN PGov PEEL RS SUBJECT VISIT TO MOSCOW DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS PAGE 02 MOSCOW 32920 01 0F 04 1915542 2 BORIS YELTSIN IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO CLOSURE 0N PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS DECEMBER 12 PLUS A REFERENDUM ON HIS VERSION OF A NEW CONSTITUTION POLITICIANS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM EVEN HARDLINERS ARE PREPARING TO CONTEST THE ELECTIONS AS SCHEDULED -- SUPPORTERS ARE DIVIDING INTO SEPARATE Current Page 1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY FRANK TUMMINIA ID 6 MAR 2003 200001030 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class - Page 2 Current Handling EXDIS Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channel n a AND REFORM MOVEMENTS -- THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT IS EXPERIENCED IN THE CONDUCT OF THE QUESTION IS THE FAIRNESS OF TTE PRECEEDING CAMPAIGN IF NOW-BANNED OPPOSITION PARTIES AND NEWSPAPERS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE -- YELTSIN DISTINGUISHES FROM AND IS NOT NOW PREPARED TO AILOW THE LATTER TO RUN FOR HIS NEW PARLIAMENT -- YELTSIN IS TAKING HIS DRAFT CONSTITUTION TO THE PEDPLE AGAINST THE ADVICE OF CONSTITUTIONAL WHO BELIEVE IT WOULD GIVE TOO MUCH POWER TO THE PRESIDENT AND FAILS TO ADDRESS MAJOR FEDERAL ISSUES -- THE MOSCOW GOVERNMENT IS CONTINUING A POLICY OF POLICE CLEANSING OF ETHNIC PAGE 03 MOSCOW 32920 01 OF 04 1915542 WHY YELTSIN WILL STICK WITH HIS TIMETABLE 3 PRESIDENT YELTSIN IS MOVING SWIFTLY TO SECURE LONG-TERM POLITICAL BENEFITS FROM THE RECENT CRISIS IN THE RUSSIAN CAPITAL DESPITE SOME WAVERING AMONG HIS AIDES ESPECIALLY WHEN THE BOSS WAS IN JAPAN YELTSIN IS PUBLICLY COMMITTED TO THE SCHEDULE HE ANNOUNCED BEFORE THE OCTOBER 3-4 BLOODSHED -- ELECTIONS TO A NEW PARLIAMENT DECEMBER 12 -- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SIX MONTHS LATER ON JUNE 14 SOME OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ENTOURAGE PUBLICLY ADVOCATE CANCELLATION OF THE JUNE BALLOT 4 SEVERAL FACTORS IMPEL YELTSIN TO HOLD TO THE DECEMBER 12 DATE EARLY ELECTIONS WILL GIVE LEGITIMACY TO HIS Current Class Page 2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 3 Current Handling EXDIS Document Number 19 93MOSCOW32 920 Channel n a SEPTEMBER 21 ACTION DISSOLVING THE OLD LEGISLATURE WITH THE SHEDDING OF BLOOD OCTOBER 3-4 ALBEIT INITIATED BY THE HARDLINERS THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO FULFILL HIS PROMISE OF AN EARLY RETURN TO FULL CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT TO DELAY THE VOTE INTO 1994 WOULD IN ESSENCE ACCEDE TO THE TIMETABLE ADVOCATED BY THE OPPOSITION DURING THE CRISIS AND REJECTED THEN BY YELTSIN IF YELTSIN POSTPONES THE ELECTION IN RESPONSE TO COMPLAINTS OF INADEQUATE PREPARATION TIME HIS PAGE 04 MOSCOW 32920 01 OF 04 1915542 OPPONENTS WOULD ACCUSE HIM OF DOING SO TO EXTEND THE PERIOD OF PRESIDENTIAL RULE AND OF YELTSIN WANTS A REFERENDUM ON A NEW CONSTITUTION WHILE HE IS STILL IN A POSITION TO DEFINE ITS CONTENT WHERE -- AND WHY -- YELTSIN ALTERED HIS PROGRAM 5 YELTSIN HAS MADE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO THE CONTENT TO HIS SEPTEMBER 21 PROGRAM 6 YELTSIN INITIALLY CALLED FOR ELECTIONS ONLY TO THE LOWER HOUSE THE DUMA OF A NEW PARLIAMENT AND WAS PUBLICLY IN FAVOR OF A NON-ELECTED UPPER HOUSE COMPOSED OF THE TOP EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE OFFICIALS OF THE COMPONENTS WITH THE CRUSHING OF THE OPPOSITION Current Class Page 3 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 4 Current Handling EXDIS Document Number 1993MOSCOW32 920 Channel n a PAGE 01 MOSCOW 32920 02 OF 04 1915552 ACTION SS-OO INFO LOG-00 OASY-OO FADC74 1915552 33 0 1914542 OCT 93 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9429 INFO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 02 OF 04 MOSCOW 032920 EXDIS FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE DEPT ALSO FOR WHITE HOUSE FOR E O 12356 TAGS OVIP CHRISTOPHER WARREN PGOV PREL RS SUBJECT VISIT TO MOSCOW DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS YELTSIN NO LONGER NEEDED TO COURT PROVINCIAL LEADERS- AND ANNOUNCED THE UPPER HOUSE WOULD ALSO BE ELECTED ALSO ON DECEMBER 12 HOWEVER THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT YET ANNOUNCED HOW THE UPPER HOUSE ELECTED OR PAGE 02 MOSCOW 32920 02 0F 04 1915552 HOW CANDIDATES MAY STAND FOR IT 7 FRUSTRATED BY OPPOSITION IN MANY REGIONAL AND LOCAL LEGISLATURES YELTSIN SUGGESTED IN HIS OCTOBER 6 SPEECH THAT THESE BODIES ALSO SHOULD STAND FOR EARLY ELECTION IN DECEMBER THE PRESIDENT HAS SINCE WAFFLED Current Class Page 4 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 5 Current Handling EXDIS Document Number 1 993MOSCOW32 92 0 Channel n a ON THIS ISSUE RECOGNIZING THE LACK OF TIME TO CONTEST SEATS AT SO MANY LEVELS IN ONLY TWO MONTHS YELTSIN THEN FORMED A COMMISSION TO STUDY THE REORGANIZATION OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL LEGISLATURES PRESUMABLY TO GIVE RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE THEM MUCH SMALLER TO THE NEW NATIONAL LEGISLATURE WITH A VIEW TO ELECTIONS SOMETIME NEXT YEAR IN THE MEANTIME THERE IS GREAT CONFUSION ACROSS THE FEDERATION IN RESPONSE TO SPEECH SOME REGIONAL SOVIETS SCHEDULED DECEMBER 12 ELECTIONS FOR THEMSELVES SOME SIMPLY VOTED THEMSELVES OUT OF BUSINESS PENDING FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS SOME LACK A QUORUM TO DO ANYTHING AND SOME ARE OPENLY DEFIANT OF THE CONTRADICTORY ORDERS 8 SOME PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS WANTED A REFERENDUM IN DECEMBER ON THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF A NEW CONSTITUTION IN ORDER T0 DRIVE WORK ON THE TEXT TO RAPID COMPLETION SOON AFTER THE NEW LEGISLATURE TAKES OFFICE YELTSIN WENT FURTHER ANNOUNCING A DECEMBER 12 PLEBISCITE ON THE ENTIRE DOCUMENT DESPITE THE ALMOST UNDISPUTED FACT THE TEXT REMAINS IN MANY WAYS STILL A DRAFT THE WORK OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE LAST SUMMER WAS PRODUCTIVE BUT CERTAINLY NOT DEFINITIVE YELTSIN HAD HIMSELF SCHEDULED ANOTHER PAGE 03 MOSCOW 32920 02 OF 04 1915552 SESSION OF THE CONFERENCE FOR LAST WEEKEND TO WORK ON PENDING ISSUES ALMOST AT THE LAST MOMENT HE CANCELLED THE SESSION AND ORDERED THE REFERENDUM RUSHING A CONSTITUTION NOT FOR THE AGES 9 YELTSIN WANTS TO COMPLETE THE LONG AND OFTEN TEDIOUS PROCESS OF CONSTITUTION WRITING HE HAS BEEN AT THIS FOR TWO YEARS AND MAY NOT TRUST THE NEW PARLIAMENT TO DO SO EXPEDITIOUSLY OR ON HIS TERMS UNFORTUNATELY IN DECEMBER HE WILL PRESENT THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE A DOCUMENT DELINEATING SEPARATION OF POWERS IN THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUT WITH A PREPONDERANCE OF AUTHORITY IN THE HANDS OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE MORE SO FOR EXAMPLE THAN IN DE CONSTITUTION FOR THE FIFTH REPUBLIC EVEN MANY REFORMERS WORRY ABOUT ESTABLISHING A NEW RUSSIAN Current Class Page 5 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 6 Current Handling IS Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channel n a DEMOCRACY SO HEAVILY TILTED TOWARD PRESIDENTIAL POWER 10 THE TEXT ALSO DOES NOT ADEQUATELY DEFINE THE RESPECTIVE ROLES AND POWERS OF THE NATIONAL REGIONAL AND REPUBLICAN GOVERNMENTS AND DOES NOT RESOLVE THE NEURALGIC ISSUE OF THE COMPETITIVE STATUS OF THE GEOGRAPHICALLY-DRAWN REGIONS AND THE ETHNICALLY-BASED REPUBLICS THE NEW CONSTITUTION AS WRITTEN MIGHT ESTABLISH WORKABLE RULES OF THE GAME FOR GOVERNMENT IN MOSCOW BUT NOT AN ADEQUATE BASIS FOR DEALING WITH THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGE FACING THE NEW LEGISLATURE AND GOVERNMENT AS WELL MAKING THE UNWIELDY RUSSIAN FEDERATION ACTUALLY WORK PAGE 04 MOSCOW 32920 02 0F 04 1915552 WHEN YOU SEE A POLITICIAN RUN YOU KNOW RUNNING 11 DESPITE CONTINUING CONTROVERSY ABOUT THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS POLITICIANS OF MOST STRIPES ARE CONDUCTING THEMSELVES IN EXPECTATION IT WILL TAKE PLACE AS SCHEDULED PARTIES ARE NOW REGISTERED TO FIELD SLATES CANDIDATES EVEN MANY HARDLINE NATIONALISTS AND COMMUNISTS HAVE ANNOUNCED THEIR INTENTION TO RUN FOR THE NEW DUMA WHILE SELF-STYLED OF VARIOUS HUES ARE PREPARING PROGRAMS AND PROFILES THE JOCKEYING AMONG POLITICIANS AND PARTIES IS HECTIC AND CONFUSING EVEN TO THE INSIDERS 12 THE SHORT TIME REMAINING COMBINED WITH THE REGISTRATION RULES FORMULATED BY THE GOVERNMENT WORK TO THE ADVANTAGE OF LARGE POLITICAL MOVEMENTS WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRIVATE FUNDING I E PRO-YELTSIN Current Class Page 6 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current - Page 7 Current Handling EXDIS - Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channel n a MOSCOW 32920 03 OF 04 1915552 ACTION SS-OO INFO LOG-00 OASY-OO CORE-00 FADCB9 1915552 38 0 1914542 OCT 93 - FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9430 INFO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG SECTION 03 0F 04 MOSCOW 032920 ExnIs FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE DEPT ALSO FOR WHITE HOUSE FOR E O 12356 TAGS OVIP CHRISTOPHER WARREN PGOV PREL RS SUBJECT VISIT TO MOSCOW DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS PARTIES AND PERHAPS THE COMMUNISTS THESE CONDITIONS DISADVANTAGE MEDIUM-SIZED AND SMALLER PARTIES TO FIELD SLATES OF CANDIDATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND TO COMPETE WTIES PAGE 02 MOSCOW 32920 03 OF 04 1915552 EVEN REFORMERS ARE SCHISMATIC 13 IN CLASSIC RUSSIAN FASHION EVEN THE Current Class Page 7 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 8 Current Handling IS Document Number 1 9 93MOSCOW3 2 92 0 Channel n a ADHERENTS CANNOT AGREE AMONG THEMSELVES ON PROGRAMS AND CANDIDATES REFORMERS WILL STAND FOR ELECTION UNDER TWO COMPETING STANDARDS NOTE THAT SITTING GOVERNMENT MINISTERS WILL RUN FOR THE NEW PARLIAMENT -- IS THE VEHICLE FOR THE ADVOCATES OF REFORM FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS GAYDAR AND SHUMEYKO FOREIGN MINISTER KOZYREV AND SUCH WORTHIES AS FILATOV CHUBAYS POLTORANIN BURBULIS VOLKOGONOV KOVALEV ETC PLUS MOST OF THE NOW-VENERABLE DEMROSSIYA SLATE -- UNITY AND CONCORD IS THE HOME FOR PRO-YELTSIN CANDIDATES WITH LESS REFORMIST ZEAL AND WILL FIELD A SLATE HEADED BY DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SHAKHRAY REPORTEDLY WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF PRIME MINISTER CHERNOMERDIN FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SOSKOVETS PLUS SHOKHIN AND STANKEVICH FROM TO THE HUSTINGS OR THE 14 AN UNANSWERED QUESTION IS WHO WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO RUN WE ARE RELIABLY INFORMED THAT MEMBERSHIP IN A BANNED POLITICAL ORGANIZATION WILL NOT PREVENT AN PAGE 03 MOSCOW 32920 03 OF 04 1915552 INDIVIDUAL FROM RUNNING FOR LEGISLATIVE OFFICE IN OWN RIGHT SO LONG AS THE INDIVIDUAL IS NOT CHARGED WITH A CRIMINAL OFFENSE MOST OF THE POLITICIANS DETAINED AT THE SURRENDER OF THE WERE RELEASED SOON THEREAFTER IT IS NOT NOW CLEAR IF CRIMINAL CHARGES WILL BE BROUGHT AGAINST ANY OR ALL OF THESE FIGURES BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY OUR IMPRESSION IS THE ISSUE HAS NOT BEEN DECIDED 15 RUNNING AS AN INDIVIDUAL IS ONLY PART OF THE BATTLE FOR THE NEW DUMA HOWEVER WHERE HALF THE SEATS WILL BE APPORTIONED TO COUNTRY-WIDE PARTY LISTS IF OPPOSITION GROUPS CANNOT RUN AS PARTIES COUNTRY-WIDE THEIR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIGNIFICANT STANDING IN THE DUMA WILL BE HAMPERED EVEN BEFORE THE VOTING THUS THE CONTINUING BAN ON TEN HARDLINE NATIONALIST AND Current Class Page 8 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 9 Current Handling IS Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channel n a COMMUNIST POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS REMAINS A KEY ISSUE FOR THE PRE-ELECTORAL PERIOD AND FOR THE ULTIMATE LEGITIMACY OF THE NEW LEGISLATIVE BODY WE DO NOT YET KNOW IF SOME OR ALL BANNED GROUPS AND NEWSPAPERS AS WELL SEPTEL WILL BE ABLE TO ALTER THEIR NAMES AND MASTHEADS AND THEN CARRY ON MORE OR LESS AS BEFORE SO FAR THE EVIDENCE IS CONTRADICTORY BUT NOT ENCOURAGING YELTSIN NOT SEEKING RECONCILIATION 16 BORIS FACE DURING HIS OCTOBER 6 SPEECH WAS PROOF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT HAD CAST HIS HARDLINE OPPONENTS INTO A PERSONAL ANATHEMA FROM THE SPEECH PAGE 04 MOSCOW 32920 03 OF 04 1915552 AND FROM PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS WE KNOW HE MAKES A CLEAR DISTINCTION IN HIS OWN MIND BETWEEN LEGITIMATE POLITICAL OPPOSITION AND ARMED INSURRECTION THE LATTER CATEGORY INCLUDES THOSE LEADERS OF THE STILL IN LEFORTOVO PRISON AND THOSE POLITICAL AND NEWSPAPERS WHICH IN VIEW WERE GUILTY OF INCITEMENT TO THE CIVIL UNREST AND ARMED INSURRECTION IN MOSCOW SHADES OF THE 17 THE CONDUCT OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY IN MOSCOW THESE PAST TWO WEEKS IS ALSO CAUSE FOR SERIOUS CONCERN THE EMERGENCY RULES AND CURFEW WERE USED BY THE SECURITY FORCES TO ENGAGE IN SYSTEMATIC POLICE CLEANSING OF NON-RUSSIAN PEOPLE FROM CENTRAL ASIAN AND CAUCASIAN STATES THOUSANDS OF SUCH PEOPLE WERE EXPELLED FROM THE CITY FOR LACK OF A Current Class Page 9 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class - Page 10 Current Handling EXDIS Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channel n a PAGE 01 MOSCOW 32920 04 OF 04 1915562 ACTION SS-OO INFO LOG-00 ADS-00 CORE-00 FADC99 1915562 30 0 1914542 OCT 93 PM AMEMEASSY MOSCOW TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9431 INEO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL ST PETERSEURG 04 OF 04 MOSCOW 032920 EXDIS FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE DEPT ALSO FOR WHITE HOUSE FOR E O 12356 TAGS OVIP CHRISTOPHER WARREN PGOV PREL RS SUBJECT VISIT TO MOSCOW DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS RESIDENCE PERMIT A REQUIREMENT AEOLISHED LAST SUMMER BY THE SUPREME SOVIET BUT RETAINED BY THE MOSCOW CITY AUTHORITIES WE ALSO HAVE MANY REPORTS OF BEATINGS AND HARASSMENT OF PEOPLE BASED ON THEIR ETHNICITY PAGE 02 MOSCOW 32920 04 OF 04 1915562 18 THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS POLICY WILL NOW GO WITH THE CURFEW ENDED MOSCOW MAYOR LUZHKOV OPENLY Current Class Page 10 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Current Class Page 11 Current Handling EXDIS Document Number 1993MOSCOW32920 Channel n a CALLS FOR ENFORCEMENT OF RESIDENCE RULES AND CLAIMS PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT LUZHKOV HAS ALSO THE POLICE IN RACIST TERMS AND GONE-SO FAR AS TO ADVOCATE SALES ONLY OF PRODUCE AS OPPOSED TO THE SINISTER FRUITS AND VEGETABLES OFFERED BY CENTRAL ASIAN AND CAUCASIAN MERCHANTS MOSCOW IS AND HAS BEEN FOR MANY YEARS A COSMOPOLITAN EURASIAN CROSSROADS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL MINORITY THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT POPULAR WITH MANY RUSSIAN MUSCOVITES A VIEW ENHANCED BY THE RESULTS OF MARKET REFORM AND THE GROWTH OF ORGANIZED CRIME THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST DARK-SKINNED PEOPLE HAS PLAYED WELL WITH THE MASSES AND MAY TEMPT THE AUTHORITIES TO MORE EXCESSES IN THE RUN-UP TO ELECTION DAY FOR THE UNITED STATES TO OBSERVE -- AND TO 19 YELTSIN HAS ASKED THE OUTSIDE WORLD IN PARTICULAR THE UNITED STATES TO SEND OBSERVERS TO MONTTOR THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS THIS REQUEST CREATES A DILEMMA FOR US AND FOR OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES AS WE KNOW FROM CONSULTATIONS WITH ALLIED EMBASSIES TO QUALIFY AS FREE AND FAIR MEANS MORE THAN THE CONDUCT ON ELECTION IT ALSO INCLUDES THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH THE ELECTION IS HELD AND THE OPENNESS OF THE PAGE 03 MOSCOW 32920 04 OF 04 1915562 CAMPAIGN WHICH PRECEEDED IT THE RUSSIANS KNOW VERY WELL HOW TO CONDUCT THE ACTUAL AND THERE IS LITTLE HISTORY OF VOTE-RIGGING IN THIS COUNTRY THERE NEVER NEEDED TO BE THUS THE VOTING ON DECEMBER 12 WILL PROBABLY GO ALMOST AS SMOOTHLY AS DID THE APRIL 25 REFERENDUM THE QUESTION WILL BE THE DEMOCRATIC OF THE ENTIRE ELECTORAL PROCESS THE TEST WILL BE IN ALLOWING SUFFICIENTLY BROAD PARTICIPATION TO MEET A REASONABLE STANDARD OF FREE AND FAIR WITHOUT INCLUDING GROUPS ADVOCATING ARMED FORCE TO OVERTHROW THE CURRENT SYSTEM COLLINS Current Class Page 11 UNCLASSIFIED This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu