CUrrent Class CONFIDENTIAL Current Handling n a CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EA-12 NAHA 00255 01 OF 02 302157Z INFO OCT-Ol ISO-OO CIAE-OO DODE-OO PM-OS H-Ol INR-I0 L-03 NSAE-OO NSC-05 PA-Ol SP-02 SS-15 ICA-ll TRSE-OO OMB-Ol 067 W ------------------116671 302217Z 75 R 300800Z JUN 78 FM AMCONSUL NAHA TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2670 INFO AMEMBASSY TOKYO CG USAGO MACHINATO CG 313 AD 18TFW KADENA AFB COMFLEACTS OKINAWA CG MARCORB CAMP BUTLER OAC CAMP BUTLER CG THIRD MAF CAMP COURNEY DfPJof State RPS I ps Margaret P grafeld Dir THIRD MARINE DIVISION I5Rel s Exc e De lY 1Declasslfy CG FIRST MAW CAMP BUTLER D te ' 7 fj 2QOv ExemptlOll _ _ _ __ COMUSJAPANYOKOTA AFB I ' CG 5TH AF YOKOTA JAPAN CG USARJ CAMP ZAMA JAPAN COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JAPAN CINCPAC CAMP SMITH HAWAII CG FMFPAC CAMP SMITH HAWAII CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 1 OF 2 NAHA 255 PAGE RUADBEA4072 CON F IDE N T I A L CINC ALSO FOR POLAD E O 11652 GDS TAGS MARR JA SUBJ ASSESSMENT OF OKINAWAN ENVIROMENT FOR US MILITARY BASES 1 SUMMARY DETAILED ASSESSMENT OF US POSITION IN OKINAWA BASED ON SIX YEARS ANALYSIS BEFORE AND AFTER REVERSION CONCLUDES THAT FUTURE OF OUR MILITARY BASES DEPENDS ON SKILLFUL HANDLING OF LOCAL CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 NAHA 00255 01 OF 02 302157Z PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH COMMUNITIES IN VICINITY OF BASES AND CONTINUED FULL SUPPORT OF GOJ END SUMMARY 2 FOLLOWING ARE MY FINAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE US POSITION HERE AS I DEPART OKINAWA AND THE SERVICE OF USG Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page 1 Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Current Handling n a 3 THE US DECISION TO RETURN EMINENTLY WISE AND INDEED HISTORIC DECISION NOT ONLY FROM-THE STANDPOINT OF US RELATIONS WITH JAPAN BUT ALSO FROM THE STANDPOINT OF OUR ABILITY TO MAINTAIN AND OPERATE OUR MILITARY BASES IN OKINAWA OVER THE YEARS AHEAD 4 CURRENT SITUATION DIFFICULT THOUGH IT IS CANNOT COMPARE WITH THE MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF PROBLEMS AND ANTI BASE ACTIVITIES AND THE TENSIONS BETWEEN OUR BASES AND THE OKINAWAN POPULATION WHICH EXISTED PRIOR TO REVERSION KEY TO THIS CHANGE WAS REMOVAL OF AN PAGE THREE RUADBEA4072 I I A ALIEN US ADMINSTRATION WHICH I BELIEVE HAD NO CHANCE OF OVERCOMING BARRIERS OF LANGUAGE AND CULTURE TO DEVELOP STABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH OKINAWANS 5 REVERSION HAS BROUGHT MANY IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR POSITION WHICH THOSE OF US ON OKINAWA DURING THE 1968-72 PERIOD HAD EXPECTED OR HOPED FOR RELINQUISHMENT OF US POLICE POWER AND OF US CRIMINAL JURISDICTION OVER CASES INVOLVING OKINAWANS HAS IN PARTICULAR REMOVED A DANGEROUS POTENTIAL FOR INFLAMING OKINAWAN EMOTIONS AGAINST OUR MILITARY BASES THE HANDLING OF MANY OKINAWAN PROBLEMS THROUGH THE SOFA MACHINERY LOCATED NOT IN OKINAWA BUT AT THE TOKYO LEVEL AND THE USE OF THE INDIRECT HIRE SYSTEM FOR BASE WORKERS HAS ALSO GREATLY REDUCED OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIRECT TATIONS BETWEEN OKINAWA AND OUR BASES OVER A WIDE SPECTRUM JAPANESE ADMINISTRATION OF OKINAWA HAS REMOVED US AUTHORITIES FROM THE THE OKINAWANS AND TURNED OKINAWAN ATTENTION AND ENERGIES TO THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE GOJ IN TOKYO AT THE SAME CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 NAHA 00255 01 OF 02 3021572 TIME INCORPORATION WITHIN THE JAPANESE ECONOMY AND BODY POLITIC HAS ACCELERATED A PROCESS OF NATIONALIZATION WHICH IS BEGINNING TO INCLUDE A GRADUAL TOLERANCE OF US BASES AS A FIXTURE OF LIFE ON OKINAWA PAGE FOUR RUADBEA4072 I I A 6 NONETHELESS OKINAWA REMAINS A DIFFICULT POLITICALLY SENSITIVE ENVIROMENT FOR OUR MILITARY BASES BASIC REASON IS THAT OKINAWANS CONTINUE TO HARBOR FUNDAMENTALLY UNFAVORABLE ATTITUDES WHICH ARE MORE PACIFIST AND THAN IN NATURE DERIVED FROM THEIR BATTLE OF OKINAWA EXPERICNCE IN WORLD WAR II THESE MEMORIES ARE KEPT ALIVE BY MANY OKINAWAN SCHOOL TEACHERS AND BY OKINAWAN NEWS MEDIA WHICH EVEN NOW RUN FRONT PAGE Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page 2 Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Current Handling n a ACCOUNTS OF THE BATTLE OF OKINAWA AND THE SUFFERINGS OF THE IMMEDIATE POST-WAR YEARS FOR DAYS AND MONTHS ON END AS ONE SENIOR GOJ OFFICIAL PUT IT WITH ONLY SOME EXAGGERATION OKINAWANS UNLIKE MAINLAND JAPANESE STILL TALK OF WORLD WAR II AS IF IT WERE AN EXPERIENCE WHICH HAPPENED YESTERDAY INSTEAD OF OVER 30 YEARS AGO 7 WE ARE CONFRONTED AT LEAST UNTIL THE NEXT ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR AND PREFECTURAL ASSEMBLY IN MID-1980 WITH REFORMIST LOCAL GOVERNMENT WHICH ADHERES TO LONG STANDING ELECTION PLATFORM OF DEMANDING WITHDRAWAL OF ALL MILITARY BASES US AND GOJ AUTHORITIES ARE IN A CONFRONTATION SITUATION VIS-A-VIS THE PREFECTURAL GOVERNMENT 8 r HAVE RECLUCTANTLY CONCLUDED THAT THERE IS IN FACT AN UNBRIDGEABLE GAP BETWEEN THE SO-CALLED FEELINGS OF THE OKINAWAN PAGE FIVE RUADBEA4072 CON F IDE N T I A L PEOPLE KENMINKANJOO AND VARIOUS ACTIVITIES OUR MILITARY SERVICES MUST ENGAGE IN TO CARRY OUT THEIR ASSIGNED MISSIIONS THERE WILL PROBABLY ALWAYS BE SOME MILITARY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING B52 VISITS WHICH ENCOUNTER AN UNFAVORABLE OKINAWAN CONSENSUS WHICH REQUIRES CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 NAHA 00255 01 OF 02 302157Z EVEN CONSERVATIVE OKINAWANS WHO SUPPORT THE SECURITY TREATY AND PRESENCE OF MILITARY BASES TO JOIN IN PROTEST MOREOVER WE CANNOT HOPE TO HAVE POSITIVE UNDERSTANDING AND SUPPORT FOR BASE ACTIVITIES WHICH IN FACT INTRUDE ON THE DAILY LIVES OF OK I NAWANS E G AIRCRAFT NOISE AND INCIDENTS OFF-BASE CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EA-12 INFO NAHA 00255 02 OF 02 302200Z OCT-Ol ISO-OO CIAE-OO DODE-OO PM-OS H-Ol INR-I0 L-03 NSAE-OO NSC-05 PA-Ol SP-02 SS-15 ICA-ll TRSE-OO OMB-Ol 067 W ------------------116772 302216Z 75 Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page 3 A Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Current Handling n a 3008002 JUN 78 FM AMCONSUL NAHA TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2671 INFO AMEMBASSY TOKYO CG USAGO MACHINATO CG 313 KADENA AFB COMFLEACTS OKINAWA CG MARCORB CAMP BUTLER OAC CAMP BUTLER CG THIRD MAF CAMP COURTNEY THIRD MARINE DIVISION CG FIRST MAW CAMP BUTLER COMUSJAPANYOKOTA AFB CG 5TH AF YOKOTA JAPAN CG USARJ CAMP ZAMA JAPAN COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JAPAN CINCPAC CAMP SMITH HAWAII CG FMFPAC CAMP SMITH HAWAII I I A SECTION 2 OF 2 NAHA 255 PAGE TWO RUADBEA4073 I I A CINCPAC ALSO POLAD 9 IN ADDITION OKINAWAN NEWS MEDIA THROUGH WHICH OKINAWANS RECEIVE SO MUCH OF THEIR INFORMATION REMAIN FUNDAMENTALLY AND ACTIVELY OPPOSED TO OUR MILITARY BASES AND CONTINUE TO BE OFTEN TIMES AN INSUPERABLE OBSTACLE TO GETTING ACCURATE INFORMATION AND US POINTS TO OKINAWANS AT LARGE THERE ARE FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL CHANGE FOR SOME YEARS TO COME CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 NAHA 00255 02 OF 02 3022002 10 IF ONE WERE TO JUDGE BY WHAT IS CARRIED BY THE NEWS MEDIA IS HARD TO DETECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OKINAWAN ATTITUDES TOWARDS OUR BASES SINCE REVERSION HOWEVER I TEND TO AGREE WITH VARIOUS SENIOR OKINAWAN CONTACTS WHO BELIEVE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN OKINAWAN PREOCCUPATION WITH BASE -ISSUES TO OTHER MATTERS TOUCHING THEIR DAILY LIVES THE MAJORITY OF OKINAWANS WHO LIVE IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE FEW OR NO MILITARY BASES ARE PREOCCUPIED WITH ECONOMIC AND OTHER LOCAL PROBLEMS AND DO NOT HAVE A DIRECT PERSONAL INTEREST IN MILITARY BASE ISSUES PREOCCUPATION WITH THE ECONOMY AND PARTICULARLY WITH THE VERY HIGH RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT FOR WHICH THERE IS NO ANSWER IN SIGHT OTHER THAN MIGRATION TO MAINLAND JAPAN IS ALSO BECOMING EVIDENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKINAWA WHERE OUR BASES ARE Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page 4 - Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Current Handling n a ii PAGE THREE RUADBEA4073 F I I A CONCENTRATED ON THE POSITIVE SIDE WE HAVE A VALUABLE RESERVOIR OF GOOD WILL TOWARDS THE US PARTICULARLY IN THE BUSINESS AND UNIVERSITY WORLDS WHICH IT WOULD BEHOOVE US TO PRESERVE AND INFORCE THROUGH SUCH PROGRAMS AS TRADE PROMOTION AND CULTURAL EXCHANGE WE SHOULD PROCEED WITHOUT DELAY IN ESTABLISHING AN ICA FSL POSITION AT THIS CONGEN TO EXPLOID THE MANY TIES THAT ARE AT THE HAND TO DEVELOP GOODWILL THAT COULD HELP COUNTER ACT UNFAVORABLE OKINAWAN ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE MILITARY BASES 'll RELATIONS WITH OKINAWAN COMMUNITIES IN VICINITY OF OUR MILITARY BASES ARE AND WILL ALWAYS BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AND US MILITARY COMMANDERS AND CONGEN MUST CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH CLOSE ATTENTION CARE AND POLITICAL SKILL EACH POINT OF FRICTION HOWEVER MINOR IT MIGHT SEEM AT FIRST GLANCE IF WE CAN RETAIN THE ACQUIESCENCE OF THESE COMMUNITIES IN THE PRESENCE AND OPERATIONS OF OUR BASES WE AND THE GOJ WILL BE IN A STRONG POSITION THE OUTSIDE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 NAHA 00255 02 OF 02 302200Z ACTIVE OPPOSITION ELEMENTS WHO WILL ALWAYS BE SEEKING THE MENT AND REMOVAL OF MILITARY BASES 12 THE KEY TO THE FUTURE OF OUR MILITARY BASES ON OKINAWA REMAINS IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS THE GOJ IN TOKYO WITH ITS UNIQUE PATTERNS OF THOUGHT AND ACTION OKINAWA REMAINS ALMOST A CLOSED PAGE FOUR RUADBEA4073 I I A SOCIETY FOR MAINLAND JAPANESE AS WELL AS FOR AMERICANS AND IT TAKES MAINLAND GOJ OFFICIALS A LONG TIME TO UNDERSTAND AND LEARN HOW TO COPE WITH OKINAWAN PROBLEMS THERE IS A NATURAL INCLINATION ON THE PART OF MAINLAND JAPANESE TO SYMPATHIZE WITH PROTEST AGAINST OUR MILITARY BASES WHICH ARE VOICED BY DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED OFFICIALS WE MUST STRIVE TO ENSURE THAT KEY GOJ OFFICIALS PARTICULARLY AT THE TOKYO LEVEL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SUFFICIENT UNDERSTANDING OF OUR MILITARY REQUIREMENTS TO ENSURE FULL GOJ SUPPORT IN SITUATIONS WHERE CONCESSIONS TO OKINAWAN PRESSURES WOULD IMPOSE SERIOUS LIMITATIONS ON OUR USE OF OUR MILITARY BASES AT THE SAME TIME US MILITARY SERVICES WILL HAVE TO BE WILLING TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME PROVIDED THEY DO NOT REALLY IMPAIR OUR CAPABILITY TO OPERATE FROM OUR OKINAWAN BASES 13 IN CONCLUSION I AM REASONABLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE OF OUR BASES ON OKINAWA PROVIDED OUR MILITARY COMMANDERS Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page 5 'Cur rent Class CONFIDENTIAL Current Handling n a CONTINUE TO HANDLE LOCAL PROBLEMS WITH POLITICAL SENSITIVITY AND SKILL AND PROVIDED WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE FULL SUPPORT FROM GOJ GP 4 KNOWLES CONFIDENTIAL Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page 6 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu