SECRET UNCLASSIFIED Rl PAGE 01 TAIPEI 05351 01 OF 03 0612052 RELEASED INPART 65 ACTION INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 350-00 026 031027 0610402 AUG 76 FM AMEMBASSY TAIPEI TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0632 SECTION 1 OF 3 TAIPEI 5351 EXDIS DECAPTIONED NO FORN WARNING NOTICE - SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOLVED - NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS 11652 GDS TAGS TECH MNUC TW SUBJ CURRENT STATUS OF NUCLEAR AND IN THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA REF A TAIPEI 5003 B STATE 188617 C 1 SUMMARY GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF CHINA GROC HAS EMBARKED ON AMBITIOUS NUCLEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RENDER IT ABOUT 50 PERCENT DEPENDENT ON NUCLEAR POWER BY PROFESSING TO HAVE A LONG-RUN CONCERN ABOUT AN ADEQUATE NUCLEAR FUEL SUPPLY GROC HAS ENDEAVORED TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR SPENT FUEL REPROCESSING OFFICIALS EXPLAIN THIS INTEREST ALSO AS BEING RELATED TO ROLE THEY WISH TO PLAY IN POSSIBLE FUTURE NUCLEAR REGIONAL COOPERATION SCHEME WE ARE CONCERNED LEST GROC ALSO MEANS TO USE ITS NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM AS A BASE FOR PUTTING THEMSELVES IN A POSITION TO PRODUCE A SIMPLE NUCLEAR DEVICE OUR APPREHENSIONS OVER INDICATIONS OF INTEREST IN OBTAINING INDEPENDENT MEANS OF FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION CRITICAL TO PRODUCING ITS OWN NUCLEAR DEVICE IS INCREASED BY KNOWLEDGE OF ITS RESEARCH ALSO INTO MIXED OXIDE POWER FABRICATION TECHNOLOGY ALTHOUGH WE SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 TAIPEI 05351 01 OF 03 061205Z UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEWLAUTHIHHTYEFRANKIIPEREZ CLASSIFICATION SECRET REASON 25X1 25X6 DECLASSIFY AFTER 24 OCT 2028 ID 06 APR 2009 200603697 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED HAVE KNOWLEDGE OF THE GROC BEING ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH A DUTCH FIRM TO ACQUIRE A NUCLEAR POWER REPROCESSING FACILITY WE CONSIDER THAT OUR WARNINGS IN THIS REGARD MAY HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE AND DO NOT BELIEVE FURTHER U S GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIONS ARE OPPORTUNE AT THIS ROC ACTIVITIES IN THIS AREA HOWEVER SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND SHOULD IT APPEAR THAT EFFORTS E G AS DEMONSTRATED BY AN ACTUAL VISIT OF THE COMPRIMO ACHIEVE DOMESTIC REPROCESSING CAPABILITY ARE CONTINUING IT MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN TO MAKE OUR OBJECTIONS KNOWN IN STRONG TERMS END SUMMARY 2 INTRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA ROC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS INDICATE THAT THE GROC PROBABLY CONTINUES TO PURSUE A POLICY OF DEVELOPING THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND OF RESERVING THE OPTION TO EXERCISE THIS CAPABILITY THIS POLICY IS IN MANY RESPECTS SUPPORTED BY A VERY AMBITIOUS NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM IN THE ROC INCLUDING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE WHICH HAS AN APPLICATION TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION AS WELL AS NUCLEAR POWER PRODUCTION IN ADDITION THE ROC HAS RECENTLY EVINCED AN INTEREST IN DEVELOPING NUCLEAR FUEL FABRICATION TECHNOLOGY TO A POINT THAT IT WOULD BE COMMERCIALLY PROFITABLE TO EXPORT THAT TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER NATIONS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH TECHNOLOGY COULD ALSO BE USED TO COVER PROGRAMS WHICH HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPONS APPLI- CATION 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS WHEN WE SPEAK OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE CONTEXT OF ROC CURRENT R AND ACTIVITY IT IS MORE ACCURATE TO USE THE TERM THE USE OF THE TERM TENDS TO IMPLY COMPLETE SYSTEMS INCLUDING A STOCKPILE OF WARHEADS AND A VIABLE DELIVERY SYSTEM NEITHER OF THESE CONDITIONS APPLY TO THE ROC NOR ARE THEY LIKELY TO APPLY IN OUR OPINION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS WHILE THE EVIDENCE TO DATE OF GROC INTEREST IN DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR DEVICE CAPABILITY IS DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE IT SEEMS TO US THAT A DECISION HAS BEEN MADE AT THE HIGHEST EXECUTIVE SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 TAIPEI 05351 01 OF 03 0612052 LEVEL TO KEEP THIS OPTION OPEN THERE IS NO INDICATION OF INTENTION TO DEVELOP A LARGE SCALE NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNCLASSIFIED SYSTEM AND EVEN LESS INDICATION OF HOW CONDITIONS A DEVICE OR WEAPON MIGHT BE USED THAT THE RDC WOULD PREFER T0 CONVEYI THE IMPRESSION OF HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY WITHOUT EVER DEMONSTRATING THIS CAPABILITY MUCH IN THE PATTERN OF THE ISRAEL MODEL IT FOLLOWS TO A CERTAIN THAT THE ROC WOULD WANT TO COMPLETE FABRICATION DE AT LEAST ONE BUT PERHAPS SEVERAL SIMPLE DEVICES WHICH COULD GIVE SUBSTANCE TO THE IMPRESSION IT WISHES TO CREATE THERE ARE IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION AMONG GROC AUTHORITIES ON THE ADVISABILITY OF PURSUING DEVELOPMENT OF A DEVICE CAPABILITY THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE TO DATE INDICATES THAT THOSE WHO FAVOR MAINTAINING THE OPTION TO FABRICATE AT LEAST A SIMPLE NUCLEAR DEVICE HAVE HELD SWAY IN THIS DEBATE THE PROXIMITY BOTH IN A PHYSICAL SENSE AND IN THE COMPLEMENTARY NATURE OF SOME RESEARCH PROJECTS AND THE SHARING OF RESEARCH FACILITIES BETWEEN THE PRINCIPLE NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER THE INSTITUTE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY AND THE MILITARY WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT FACILITY CHUNG SHAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND AND CONTINUED APPARENT INTEREST IN ACQUISITION OF SPENT FUEL REPROCESSING TECHNOLOGY ARE ALL VIEWED AS STRONG INDICATIONS THAT THE GROC INTENDS TO MAINTAIN THE OPTION TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR DEVICE CAPABILITY AS A PART OF ITS OVERALL NATIONAL DEFENSE POLICY 4 DOMESTIC NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM THE ROC IS ENGAGED IN DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMBITIOUS DOMESTIC NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM AND IS AT THE SAME TIME INVOLVED IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ALL PHASES OF THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE THE NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM CALLS FOR APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT OF THE ELECTRICAL ENERGY TO BE GENERATED BY NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS BY THE YEAR 1985 THERE ARE SECRET SECRET PAGE 04 3 TAIPEI 05351 01 OF 03 0612052 SIX NUCLEAR REACTORS PLANNED FOR OPERATION BY THE DATE THE FIRST TWO TOTALLING APPROXIMATELY 1300 MEGAWATTS ELECTRICAL POWER ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN OPERATION BY THE END OF 1977 ALL REACTORS ARE LIGHT WATER REACTORS SUPPLIED BY U S FIRMS AND ARE UNCLASSIFIED EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A TOTAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER UPON COMPLETION FUEL SUPPLY CONTRACTS EXIST BETWEEN THE ROC AND U S SOUTH AFRICAN AND CANADIAN SUPPLIERS AN EARLIER PRELIMINARY AGREEMENT WITH BRITISH NUCLEAR FUELS LTD FOR REPROCESSING SERVICES WAS CANCELLED IN EARLY 1975 THERE IS NO KNOWN AGREEMENT FOR REPROCESSING OF SPENT FUEL FROM THE SIX PROGRAMMED POWER REACTORS GROC OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE CURRENT LACK OF REPROCESS- ING AGREEMENTS AND HAVE INDICATED THEIR BELIEF THAT DOMESTIC OR REGIONAL REPROCESSING WILL BE NECESSARY IF AGREEMENTS WITH FOREIGN SUPPLIERS CANNOT BE OBTAINED SECRET SECRET PAGE 01 TAIPEI 05351 02 OF 03 061216Z 65 ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 530 00 026 031031 0610402 AUG 76 FM AMEMBASSY TAIPEI TO SECSTAEE WASHDC PRIORITY 0633 SECTION 2 OF 3 TAIPEI 5351 EXDIS NO FORN WARNING NOTICE - SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOLVED - NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS 5 RESEARCH ON ALL ASPECTS OF THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE IS CONDUCTED AT INER LIMITED RESEARCH FACILITIES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE AT THE NATIONAL TSING HUA UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NTHU IN HSIN CHU THE INER HAS CONSTRUCTED A SMALL-SCALE SPENT FUEL REPRDCESSING LABORATORY AT INER AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING COLD UNCLASSIFIED TESTS AT THIS FACILITY THE INER HAS INTENDS TO CONDUCT CHEMICAL SEPARATION REPROCESSING EXPERIMENTS USING THE 20 PERCENT ENRICHED FUEL ELEMENT PLATES FROM THE TSING HUA OPEN POOL REACTOR THOR AS FEED FOR THESE EXPERIMENTS I 6 THE CRITICAL QUESTION IN CONSIDERATION OF ROC ATTEMPTS T0 ACQUIRE A NUCLEAR DEVICE CAPABILITY REMAINS ACCESS TO THE NECESSARY FISSILE MATERIAL TO FABRICATE SUCH DEVICES THE USG HAS TAKEN THE POSITION AND MAINTAINS THAT ESTABLISHMENT OF ANY DOMESTIC SPENT FUEL REPROCESSING WOULD CREATE SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 TAIPEI 05351 02 OF 03 061216Z AN UNACCEPTABLE RISK THAT SUCH ACCESS WOULD THEN BE PROVIDED WE ARE INFORMED THAT ELEMENTS OF THE ROC BELIEVE THAT THEIR INABILITY TO ACQUIRE REPROCESSING SERVICES ABROAD THE U S HAS STATED DEFINITIVELY THAT IT CANNOT PROVIDE THESE SERVICES MAKES IT NECESSARY TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN CAPABILITY IN SUPPORT OF THE POWER PROGRAM THE ARGUMENT IS OF COURSE CONTINGENT UPON EVENTUAL ACCEPTANCE OF PLUTONIUM RECYCLE BUT THE ROC BELIEVES AS DO MOST COUNTRIES WITH SUBSTANTIAL COMMITMENTS TO NUCLEAR POWER THAT THIS ACCEPTANCE IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION 7 IN 1973 THE USG INTERVENED TO STOP ROC ACQUISITION 70F A REPROCESSING FACILITY FROM A GERMAN SUPPLIER EVALUATION OF THIS ROC DETERMINATION IN THE FACE OF STRONG USG OBJECTIONS MUST CONCLUDE THAT THE RATIONALE IS BASED ON MORE THAN THE ECONOMIC-NEED ARGUMENT THE MISSION BELIEVES THAT THE ANSWER IS AT LEAST IN PART THAT THE ROC SEES A DOMESTIC SPENT FUEL REPROCESSING FACILITY ALSO AS A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF FISSILE MATERIAL FOR NUCLEAR DEVICE PRODUCTION THE WEB OF COMMERCIALLY ORIENTED RESEARCH RELATING TO POTENTIAL NUCLEAR DEVICE PRODUCTION IS FURTHER UNCLASSIFIED STRENGTHENED BY RELATIVELY RECENT INTERESN CLASSIFIED AT INER IN DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL FABRICATION TECHNOLOGY ONCE AGAIN THIS IS A DISCIPLINE DEPENDENT UPON THE ACCEPTABILITY OF PLUTONIUM RECYCLE BUT IT PROVIDES THE ROC WITH ANOTHER FORCEFUL ARGUMENT FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF A DOMESTIC SPENT FUEL REPROCESSING FACILITY 8 SAFEGUARDS THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS AS THEY MAY APPLY TO THE ROC IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM THE PECULIAR AND TENUOUS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ROC AND THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY IAEA THE ROC IS NO LONGER A MEMBER OF IAEA BECAUSE OF ITS EXPULSION FROM BUT AT THIS SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 TAIPEI 05351 02 OF 03 061216Z TIME ALL KNOWN SPECIAL NUCLEAR MATERIALS AND PRINCIPAL NUCLEAR ON TAIWAN ARE SUBJECT TO SAFEGUARDS INSPECTIONS AND ACCOUNTABILITY PROCEDURES UNDER AND AGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE ROC IAEA AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WITH IAEA AS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ITS OWN NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM AND IS ANXIOUS To MAINTAIN THIS RELATIONSHIP 1 4D INSPECTION OF ROC NUCLEAR FACILITIES ARE OBVIOUSLY OF GREAT IMPORTANCE AND SHOULD BE CONTINUED THE VERY REGENT INCREASES IN SAFEGUARDS REQUIREMENTS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE ROC AND IAEA ARE 9 REGIONAL COOPERATION THE CASE FOR DEVELOPING DOMESTIC PROGRAMS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE INCREASED ACCESS TO FISSILE MATERIAL IS SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASED INTEREST IN REGIONAL OR MULTI-NATIONAL UNCLASSIFIED NUCLEAR FUEL CENTERS THE REGIONAL WMSSIFHED WHICH IS GAINING POPULARITY AND IN FACT IS ONE WHICH IS ENCOURAGED BY THE USG THE RDC ARGUES THAT IT IS NECESSARY FOR THEIR SCIENTISTS AND TECHNICIANS TO GAIN EXPERIENCE IN ALL ASPECTS OF THE FUEL CYCLE IN ORDER TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL CONTRIBUTION TO ANY REGIONAL COOPERATIVE EFFORT IN ADDITION THE CONCEPT OF MIXED-OXIDE FUEL FABRICATION IS VIEWED AS A POTENTIALLY VALUABLE AND MARKETABLE TECHNOLOGY THE ROC WOULD LIKE TO BECOME A REGIONAL LEADER IN THE FIELD AND ARGUES THAT IT NEEDS SUBSTANTIAL EXPERIENCE SECRET SECRET PAGE 04 TAIPEI 05351 02 OF 03 061216Z ON A RELATIVELY LARGE SCALE OPERATION BEFORE THE TECHNOLOGY CAN BE PERFECTED THERE ARE OF COURSE VERY SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL PROBLEMS ATTENDANT TO THE CONCEPT OF REGIONAL COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR PROJECTS WE BELIEVE THAT THE ROC RECOGNIZES THESE PROBLEMS THIS DOES NOT PROHIBIT THE ROC HOWEVER FROM USING THE REGIONAL APPROACH AS A JUSTIFICATION FOR DEVELOPING DOMESTIC CAPABILITIES FOR THE REASONS CITED ABOVE EVEN IF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF REGIONAL PROJECTS ARE DELAYED SECRET SECRET PAGE 01 TAIPEI 05351 03 OF 03 0612232 65 ACTION SS-25 INFO 660-00 026 031186 061040Z AUG 76 FM AMEMBASSY TAIPEI TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0634 SECTION 3 OF 3 TAIPEI 5351 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED EXDIS NO FORN WARNING NOTICE - SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS - NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS 10 SUGGESTED COURSES OF ACTION WE BELIEVE THAT THE USG SHOULD BE ABLE UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS To EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE ON THE GROC T0 FORESTALL EFFORTS To ACQUIRE A DOMESTIC SPENT FUEL REPROCESSING FACILITY INDICATIONS SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 TAIPEI 05351 03 OF 03 061223Z THAT NEGOTIATIONS FOR ACQUISITION OF A REPROCESSING FACILITY FROM CAMPRIMO HAVE BEEN FINALIZED AND SINCE THE USG POSITION HAS ALREADY RECENTLY BEEN MADE CLEAR TO THE GOVERNMENT NETHERLANDS AND THE GROC WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT FURTHER REPRESENTATIONS ON THE MATTER ARE CALLED FOR AT THIS TIME WE FEEL THAT ROC ACTIVITIES IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE MDNITORED AS CLOSELY AS POSSIBLE AND IF IT DEVELOPS THAT THERE IS NO SLOWING TREND OR IF MORE CONCRETE EVIDENCE OF A FIRM AGREEMENT WITH COMPRIMO OR ANY OTHER POTENTIAL SUPPLIER OF SPENT FUEL REPROCESS- ING TECHNOLOGY IS DISCOVERED A DEMARCHE DESIGNED TO STOP THE ACQUISITION SHOULD BE MADE IN THE STRONGEST UNCLASSIFIED TERMS UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES NE THE MOST RELIABLE POSSIBLE THE USG SHOULD ALSO BEGIN To CONSIDER OF ASSURING ROC COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS ON A BASIS IF NECESSARE SHOULD CURRENT IAEA AGREEMENTS BE ABROGATED FINALLY WE BELIEVE THAT PROGRESS TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL REPROCESSING CONCEPT WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF REMOVING AT LEAST PART OF THE ROC ARGUMENT FOR ACQUISITION REPROCESSING THUS POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF A REGIONAL FUEL CENTER WOULD APPEAR USEFUL IN DISCOURAGING PROLIFERATION OF NATIONAL FACILITIES AT THIS SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 TAIPEI 05351 03 OF 03 0612232 WE WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT INFORMATION PERTAINING TO THIS SUBJECT AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE UNGER SECRET UNCLASSIFIED This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu