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Ion THE PAST TEN YEARS ans aziu A PEACEFUL APPROACH TOUARD TAINAN IT IS NOT IN INTEREST TO PROUONE REIJIHG INTO A NORE NILITANT PDSTURE - UHICH UOULD SUBSTITUTE FRICTION TENSION INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTT FOR THE CURRENT FAUORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE TAINAN STRAITS I THERE IS A OROAOLT BASED DESIRE RT PEOPLE DN TAIUAN TO TENSIONS IN THE TAINAN STRAITS AND PRIVATE CONTACTS AND TRADE NITH THE SONE PEOPLE GO BEYOND THIS TO SPEAK OF DEVELOPING A PEACEFUL NODUS TIUENDI NITH BEIJING CONTINUED REJECTION OF THE NUCLEAR OPTION IS A NECESSARY PRECONDITION FOR THESE OEUELDPNENTS TO OCCUR SECURITI dun nzrsancuc -- cunnsur POLICY or NAIHTAININC stnbua -CONUENTIOHAL AND NON-PRDUOCATIUE DEFENSIVE FORCES REST DUN INTERESTS AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE PEACE AND PROSPERITY TAIUAN NON ENJOTS AS THE PRC HAS NOT THREATEHED THE USE OF NUCLEAR NEAPONS AGAINST TAIUAN PURSUIT OF A NUCLEAR UEAPONS OPTION COULD ENPOSE TAINAN TO RISNS IT DOES NOT NON FACE RATHER THAN OETERRINO A CONVENTIONAL ATTACH NUCLEAR UEAPOUS UOULO LIHELT PROUONE A CONVENTIONAL CUILD-UP ACROSS THE STRAITS THUS INCREASING THE CONVENTIONAL THREAT AND CREATE A NUCLEAR THREAT ST RAISING THE PROSPECT OF NASSIUE NUCLEAR RETALIATION - AGAINST NHILE HAY ENUISAGE NUCLEAR NEAPOHS AS A KIND OF ULTIHATE UARGAININO CARD OR DETERREHT FOR TAIUAN STRATEGIC PLANNERS UOULO RECOGNIZE THAT THEIR POSSESSION NOULD ON THE CONTRARY EAPOSE EAINAN TO NUCN GREATER NILITARY RISK AND DANGER -- POTENTIAL THREAT couEs rnon THE vac unlcu was A SUDSTANTIAL NUCLEAR rune sun I VARIETY or DELIVERY TAIUAN noes nor POSSESS EITHER sucu HEIPUNS on THEIR DELIVERY nun COULD not TO PAC CAPADILITIES uunza INT FOAESEEAILE CIRCUHSIANCE IN GEOGRAPHIC TERNS TAIUAH IS A RELATIUELT SHALL - ISLAND Inns urns POPULATION AND CONCENTRATEO HILITARY FACILITIES UOULO a EKTAEHELY IULNERABLE Io NUCLEAR 133 5 on arrncu IN A CONFRONTATION UITH a CONTINENTAL NUCLEAR PDUER SIRE 131123 Elli THESE OECISIVE STRATEGIC nun GEOGRAPHIC TAIUAN HOULD nave uo_saus RAIIOHAL us can nucIsaa utsrous IN a CONFLICT aura IRE rac -- DURING THE PERIOD IN quca EVEN THE FIRST NUCLEAR Utaruu UITN son roan or DELIVERY SYSTEH was BEING rnonuc u TAIUAH wouLn xrosz ITSELT TO THE THREAT a A couv uraoua1 PREENPTIUE STRIKE sucu as tun CONDUCTED IT ISRAEL AGAINST NUCLEAR FACILITY IN 1531 - II A SOCIETY unIcH ants nor HAT AN ESTAALISNEO AND TESTED TRADITION or contact ovtn NILITAAY DECISIONS THE or NUCLEAR usnrous ACOUISITION NOULD RAISE FUNOAHENTAL ISSUES IN RELATIONS ANO REQUIRE THE CREATION or RELIABLE CONTROL rnocznungs TO ENSURE CIVILIAN CONTROL ENEAGI SECURITY nun uucIrnn -- SIX NUCLEAR POUER PLANTS SUPPLY AROUT AS TOTAL ELECTRICITT GENERATION DEPEHDS ON FOREIGN SUPPLIERS FOR ITS REACTORS FOR THE EHRICNED URANIUN TO FUEL THEN AND FOR SPARE PARTS TD HAINTAIN THEN I-- NPT ADHERENCE AND THE APPLICATION OF IAEA SAEEGUARDS TO ALL ITS NUCLEAR HATERIAL AND FACILITIES ARE ESSENTIAL TO ACCESS TO THE NUCLEAR FUEL AND EOUIPNEHT IT NEEDS FROH ABROAD - FIRNS HAVE SEEN THE HAAOR SUPPLIERS FIRNS -FRON NDST OF THE OTHER NAJOR NESTERN SUPPLIERS INCLUDING FRANCE JAPAN UEST OERNANY THE NETHERLANDS THE UH AND CANADA HARE ALSO SUPPLIED NUCLEAR PRODUCTS AND SERVICES TO TAIUAN -- ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES LAND ALSO SOUTH AFRICAL REOUIRE IAEA SAFEGUARDS AS A CONDITION FOR THEIR NUCLEAR EXPORTS - HERE TAIUAN TO rnon ITS urt CONNITNENTS on VIOLATE Inca satanunnus as UDULO IE UNAUDIOAILE IN PRODUCING even on uggrou non or rats COUNTRIES NOR ANT crutn HPT PARTY DOULO ENGAGE IN NUCLEAR UITN TAIUAN -- A VIOLATION OF IAEA SAFEOUARDS UOULD RE A HAJOR INTERNATIONAL ISSUE SURJECT TD REPORTING THE IAEA TO THE UN SECURITT COUNCIL REGARDLESS OF UNOSE NATERIAL TAIUAN USED FOR A NUCLEAR UEAPON NO SUPPLIER UOULD HAUE ASSURANCE THAT ITS SUPPLIES UOULO NOT BE NISUSED THE PRC UDULD UHDOUDTEDLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE TO REINFORCE THEIR OPPOSITION TO NUCLEAR EXPORTS TO TAINAN -- EVEN AN ANDIGUOUS SITUATION UHICN RAISED DOUETS AIOUT AOHERENCE TO ITS NON-PROLIFERATICN CONNITNENTS NDULD CAUSE SUPPLIERS TO OUESTION THE NISOON OF CONTINUED NUCLEAR CDNNERCE UITH TAIHAN AND TNREATEH ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SIGNED LAUX SHULTI This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu