nunI'll fa-r Enlist Manna Ina NO Objection To Declassi cation 2008 06 09 NLC-131-6-1-3-5 ACTION INEO EM POL 0 I 5 -- CHRON DUMMI HS-JUN-SS TOR 62 46 RR RUEHNE CN 1460 DE RUEHIL #2934 61 1571154 CHRG AMB 88 1311 EXDI FM AMEMBASSI To NASHDC 5 26 MACDILL APB EL RUEEJCS NASHDC INEO KABUL 6183 MOSCON 453C NEW DELHI 3586 SECTION H1 OT 92 ISLAMABAD 12334 EXD IS it MILITARY HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE 11 0 12556 DECL OADH TAGS PEEL MARR PI AP US SUBJ USCINCCENT VISIT TO PAKISTAN THE PAN -- MILITARY ON AFGHANISTAN C 1 SECRET ENTIRE TEXT 2 SUMMARI IN SEPARATE MAI 29 MEETINGS NITH USCINCCENT GEN GEORGE B CRIST AND AMB RAPHEL PAI CHAIRMAN OR THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STATE GEN AIHTAR ABDUL RARMAN IRAN AND RICE CRIEE OE THE ARMI STAFF GEN ASLAM BEG EXPRESSED SIMILAR CONCERNS THAT THE SOVIETS ARE SHIETINC THE EOCUS OE THEIR STRUGGLE EOR AFGHANISTAN THE TWO GENERALS EXPECT THE SONIETS TO POSTER CONTENTION AMONG THE HOPES OP STRENGTHENING POSITION IN EABUL THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS THAT As A FALLBACK POSITION THE SOIIETS ARE PLANNING TO SEPARATE AND CONTROL APGHANISTAN NORTH OI THE HINDU RUSH AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN KABUL NOULD BE THE BEST ASSURANCE AGAINST BIEURCATION INDIA NHICH HAS A COMMON INTEREST SITE THE USSR IN PRESENTING AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN AFGHANISTAN HILL TORI TO INFLUENCE EVENTS THERE BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENJOI MUCH SUCCESS IRAN IS ATTEMPTING TO INELUENCE AEGHAN SHIAS AN ISLAMIC APCHAN REPUBLIC COQLD BE EXPECTED TO JOIN RITE PAKISTAN TURIEI AND AN IRAN COME TO ITS SENSES IN AN ISLAMIC LEAGUE TO OPPOSE SOUTHNARD END SUMMARI 3 THE FOLLOWING IS AN AMALGAM OE VIEWS TAKEN FROM SEPARATE MEETINGS BUT IN WHICH THE TWO PAKISTANI GENERALS HERE IN AGREEMENT WESTERN FOREIGN POLICY IN GENERAL IS HISTORICALLY REACTIVE THAT IS AGAIN THE CASE IN AFGHANISTAN WHERE MOST DID NOT EXPECT THE SOVIET NITHDRANAL MOST NON UNIVERSALLY ACCEPT IT AND NO ONE IS PLANNING FOR WHAT THE NEIT SOVIET MOVE MIGHT BE THE SOVIETS HERE I ISLAMABAD No Objection TO Declassi cation 2008 06 09 NLC-131-6-1-3-5 NO Objecti On TO- DEcEsEi catio UNAELE TO RESIST THE PRHURES TO UIT APGHANISTAN BUI NILE NON SEEK OTHER NAKS CONTROL SOME OR ALL OP THAT COUNTRI THIS IS IN KEEPING NITH RUS NELL-KNONN PERSERIERANCE AND ITS EEAND THE NARM A 01- mg hangar 4 THE AR WERE 4 APTER OCCUPATION OPTION IS FOR NAIIE AND THE PDPA TO RETAIN PONER IN KAHUL THE SONIETS RECOGNIZE THAT NAJIE WOULD NOT RULE MUCH MORE THAN THE CAPITAL AND PERHAPS ONE OR TNO OTHER LARGE CITIES AND THAT THEI NOULD RATE TO KEEP HIM SUPPLIED PRINCIPALLI OVER THE SALANG PASS OR TIA 6 HERAT-KANDAHAR-GHARNI IE NAIIE RETAINS CONTROL OP THOSE CITIES RECOGNIEING THAT THE NUJAHEDDIN MUST REMAIN UNITED IE HOPE TO UNSEAT NAJIE THE SOVIETS ARE ALREADI NORRI NC TO SON DISSENSION AND CONFLICT AMONG THE MUJ PACTIONS THEE HATE ALSO HEGUN TO PRESSURE PAKISTAN TO CUT ORE THE AID PIPELINE TO THE FREEDOM FIGHTERS THE GENERALS PEEL THAT ASSAULTS AT THIS TIME ON LARGE ATGHAN CITIES AND PROHAHLE MUJAREDDIN DISAGREENENTS OIER THEIR CONTROL GOULD PRONOKE PHECISELI THE SORT OP STRAINS NHICH THE SONIETS ARE SEEKING THEREFORE THE MUJAHEDDIN NOULD DO BETTER TO CONSERNE THEIR STRENGTH UNT A TE THE SO A GOULD ENNELOP NAEUL CUT NAJIE SUPPLY LINES TO RUSSIA AND PRESSURE NAJIE TO NEGOTIATE HIS ONN DEPARTURE COMMENT NE DOUET THAT THE PARS REALLI BELIEVE THAT NAJIE CAN EE UNDONE PEACEPULLK OR THAT THE MUJAHEDDIN NILL AUOID INTERNAL CONFLICT THEIR ADHERENCE TO THIS PARTY LINE SUCCESTS A DEEP-SEATED CONCERN THAT PROLONGED POST-NITRDRANAL VIOLENCE COULD LEAD TO THE SPLITS AMONG THE PREEDOM TIGHTERS NHICH THE SOTIETS SEEM TO HE COUNTING ON END COMMENT 5 REFUGEES SHOULD DELAY THEIR RETURN AT LEAST UNTIL POWER HAS BEEN RESTRICTED T0 KADUL EVERY ADULT MALE REFUGEE IN PAKISTAN IS A POTENTIAL FIGHTER RUT ONCE BACK IN AFGHANISTAN RE COULD BE PLACED IN CAMPS BY THE PDPA THERE HE WOULD BE DEPENDENT UPON GOVERNMENT SUBJECT TO HIS INFLUENCE AND RECRUITARLE FOR RESISTANCE AGAINST THE MUJAHEDDIN ISLAHARAD @12634 01 No Objection To Declassi cation 2008 06 09 NLC-131-6-1-3 SIGNNO Objection TO Declassi cation 2008 06 09 EIDIS IF As EXPECTED NAJIB CANNOT HOLD OUT IN KABUL THE SOVIETS MAY TURN TO A SCHEME TO SEPARATE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS or AFGHANISTAN ABOVE THE HINDU KUSH AS SOME KIND OE AUTONOMOUS OR INDEPENDENT ENTITY CLOSELY TIED To THE SOVIET UNION THIS REGION HAS 0 ALWAYS BEEN SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF AFGHANISTAN PHYSICALLY AND BY CULTURAL LINGUISTIC AND ECONOMIC DIEPERENCES SINCE THEIR INVASION THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN VORHING T0 STRENGTHEN ECONOMIC TIES TO THE USSR THE GAS PIPELINES RUN NORTH As DOES THE ELON OP TRADE MOST OF THE INHABITANTS ARE ETHNICALLY AND LINGUISTICALLY CLOSER TO THE MUSLIM AREAS OR THE SOVIET UNION THAN TO THE PATRANS OE APGRANISTAN SOUTH OR THE HINDU IUSH THIS BATTER POINT ALSO WORKS AGAINST THE SOVIETS AS MANY APGHAN UZBEHS ARE THE SONS AND GRANDSONS OE MEN NHO PLED THEIR HOMELANDS DECADES AGO TO ESCAPE THE EXPANSION 0E SOVIET POWER THESE URBEHS HERE AMONG THE FIRST TO RISE AGAINST THE INYADERS THE GENERALS BELIEVE THAT ONLY AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN EABUL VOULD HAVE THE APPEAL NECESSARY To EOIL SOVIET PLANS FOR THE NORTH OR ALL THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IN HABUL THE ONE A WHICH THE SOVIETS PEAR MOST IS AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC INDIA HEELS THE SAME VAY AND THOUGH EOR DIFFERENT REASONS MOSCOV AND DELHI HAVE A COMMON INTEREST IN PREVENTING ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ISLAMIC GOVERNMENT EVEN A MODERATE ONE IN AFGHANISTAN DELHI Is EXPECTED THROUGH ITS LARGE INDIAN MINORITY NHICH Is VERY INPLUENTIAL IN COMMERCIAL AREAS To SUPPORT - NAME OR SOME OTHER NON-ISLAMIC EORM OP GOVERNMENT HOVEVER INDIA IS COMING LATE TO THE GAME AND THE PAR GENERALS DO NOT EXPECT REPORTS TO BE SUCCESSPUL As THEY ARE SEEN BY THE MUJAHEDDIN AS NHATEVER MOTIVATIONS THE GENERALS BELIEVE THAT THEIR LONG-TERM PRIENDSHIPS VITH Moscow AND THEIR RELIANCE ON THE SOVIETS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OE THEIR VEAPONRY AND SPARES MARE INDIA ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOVIET PRESSUHES To ACT AGAINST PAKISTAN OVER AFGHANISTAN AS ANTIPATHY TONARD PAKISTAN IS A MATTER OB RECORD THE GENERALS BELT THAT ONLY MINIMAL SOVIET PRESSURE VOULD BE REQUIRED IRAN IS ALSO ACTIVE AMONG ITS SHIA PARTISANS IN AFGHANISTAN PARTICULARLY IN THE PREDOMINANTLI SHIA HAZARAJAT REGION TEERAN HAS SENT AT LEAST THO DELEGATIONS TO MEET WITH HAZARA LEADERS BOTH TIMES THE SOVIETSIISSUED PROTESTS TO THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT THE PARS DO NOT EXPECT THE IRANIANS TO ESTABLISH MUCH INFLUENCE IN AFGHANISTAN IF ONLY BECAUSE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION IS SUNNI AND WOULD RESIST THE INFLUENCE OF SHIA AIATOLLAHS 9 PAKISTAN THAT AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC WOULD JOIN WITH PAKISTAN TURKEY AND IRAN ONCE THE ISLAMABAD 012054 02 No Objection TO Declassi cation 2008 06 09 NLC-131-6-1-3-5 NO ObjectignuTO D' ci s's'i catior L63f3 1-631-3-5 LATTEH TO ITS IN AN ISLANIO ANVROLITIOAL HLOG NHIOH GOULD SERVE As A DARRIER TO REGIONAL SOVIET ANDITIONS IT ALSO COULD AOT AS A RITAL TO INDIAN RLANS EOR REGIONAL SURRENAGI 1O COMMENT OLEARLI THE RAHS FEEL THAT A NEE RHASE HAS STARTED IN THE REHENNIAL GREAT GAME THEY ERREOT THE SOIIETS TO PURSUE THEIR GOALS ET OTHER MEANS THE GENERALS ARE GONOERNED THAT THE US - HE THAT THE STRUGGLE EOR AIGHANISTAN Is NOT OVER AND HILL REQUIRE OONTINUED ANERIOAN TIGILANOE - AND SUPPORT TO ENSURE THAT THE SOYIETS DO NOT RETAIN DONINANT INELUENOE OTER AFGHANISTAN OR ITS NORTHERN DESPITE THEIR NILITARI HITHDRANAL 11 KABUL AND HOSCOW MINIMIZE CONSIDERED RAPHEL BT #2034 ISLAMABAD @12634 22 No Objection To Declassi cation 2008 06 09 NLC-131-6-1-3-5 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu