-caurrnzu'r1u #319122 FEB 78 ERROR STATE 2 2 79 FM TIHRAN APPRV TO UASEOO PRIORITY 3659 ERFTD JINFO AHHBN 1335 CLEAR HONE EUEECRIUSINT BAGHDAD 1318 - DISTRI POL 5 LHB CAIRO 5593 Econ 2 PH ECL- ROEHBVIAEEHBASSY BAHASCUS 2736 OR ADM ST DHAHRAK 2354 BAG AFOSI DOEA Z795 ISLAHABAD 3779 JIDDA 4633 ERBUL 5194 KUWAIT 4928 LONDON 4298 1359 HOSEOU 1440 MESCAT DELHI 343 PARIS 3722 RKBAT 6354 ROHE 1341 HUORHSIAKEEBASSY SANA 2323 RUEHTFIAREHEASSY TEL AYIY 1619 TRIPOLI @544 TONIS 0364 3 I I A SECTION OI 61591 3 0 12665 625 2 2 85 GEORGE 02- PINS PGOV IR SUBJECT IRAN URBERSTANBINO TEE POVEHENT 1 - ENTIRE TEXT P THOUGH BASBB ON INCOMPLETE EVIDSROE OUR BEST ASSESSHERT TO BATE IS TEXT THE SHIA ISLAHIO HINATEE ET AYATOLLAE IEOHEIHI IS FAR BETTER ORGANIZED EHIIGETENEE ARE ABLE TO RESIST ITS DETPACTOES WOULD LEAD US TO BELIEVE IT IS ROOTED IN TEE IRAHILE PEOPLE MORE THAN ANY VESTEER IDEOLOGY INCLUBING COHHUNISH HOWEVER ITS SOVERNING PROCEDUEES ARE NOT CLEAR AND PROBABLY HAVE NOT BEER TOTALLY VORZED IT IS FOSSIBLB THAT TEE PROCESS OF TIGET PRODUCE ACCOVYCBATIONS WITH THE INTELLECTUAL-STRAINS ERICK EXIST OPPOSITION TO PRODUCE MORE CLOEZEY APPROACEINO TESTERNIZED DEFOCRLTIC PROCESSES EIGHT AT FIRST BE SPPIHEHT ENE SUMMARY 3 AS IEPT OTHER KIERESSEES ARE AORRE HAVE FOR SOVETEFE BEEN LABORIHG SITE THE FEOELEH OF UNDERSTANDING THE FEFAITH ARI IEPTE OF THE RBEASCENT RELIBICUS RCTETERT IN BOTH FOR POLICE FUHPOSES 73 23 C33 STUEY IS FAR COTSLUBED IT 25915 SE TO 35 5032 TESTATIVB JOOGMENTS AT THIS CSITICAL STAGE IN CNGCIKS REVOLUTIOE - AVB AHASSED ENOUGH TO EATE TO BE II 4 IRST IE 2 I I a 1691 1 arm HOV LHENT BEADS 1'53 IRANIAN SUN 7 AT TEE ISL RENOBUT TEE FEESON 0 THE SINBOLIG LEADER NOVEINI IN TEE ORGANIZATION OR PERH APS NONE ACCURAIM Its ORGANIZATIONS WHICH SUPPORT BIN IRANIAN SPOEEZHEN HAVE FOR A LONG TIME PEDDLED T33 CHARGE EHOHEL IIS ARE FOR THE MOST PART CPYETG UNIS 5 OR LEEIISES OE MARXIST IPE THIS BELIEF I-S 553 53 CUITE NELL- INFORMED IRAN NS IN31UEING LISTS AND BUSINESSHEN AS IELL AS ISERVAN S I A EFABLE BITE-NT IT IS BASED ON A EAELE THAT EEN INFILTRATEB AS IOUTHS INTO THE RELIEIOLS 3653315 Ah '3 NOW CONSTITUTE TEER EIGIOUS MOVEMENT OF IS BESUIEO EECN THE ISSUNPTION MADE NARI IRAN T35 TEE RELIGIOUS PEOPLE INDEE IRANIANS IN 23 NW INCAPABLE OF PUTTING 5 UNLESS THIS IS DONE FOR 3 THE 5x3 ORIANIE 5303 IN IRAN TEE IUEEH EARTY 5 13933 DETEECIOES EA TO BE LABORING IN AN IGNORANCF OF $33 ISIRHIC FEVEPENT IS IN SOME CASES GREATER THAN WESEERN WESTERNIZATION IN IRAN A 5 ATOS Ati LESIT UNDER THE Ti '0 PAELANI - FUNARZNS NEICN 5 5 PRECTECALLI WIPED OUT HEMORIES OF THE PAST FOR Iri Et 133 535 OF PEOPLE 530 WENT TO SCHOOL IN TN IRANIAN SCHOOL SYSTEM AND DID THEIR '3 STUDIES FER TF3 MEET PART ABROAE FOLIONING THE 7 H3 L IN IURKEY AND CONTINUING INTO THE It-l PCS BAR II PE IOB THE PAELAVI SEAES HAVE SOUGHT TO EEHE ESIEBLISHMENT AS AN IGNORANT OF THE I5 PAST EECOHING OBSO- STEES IAN EN TO RENDE 3 THIS A SELF-FULFILLING PNCPEECT THE 3A5 EFFORTS TO CUT OFF IRE MULLAES PIR ECT FINANCIAL SUP FORT BY THE PEOPLE AND TO HARE TEEN DEFEND ON 33 BY KEEPING TEE HULLAES AS Cu OF AS EOSSIBLE SEE KING TO RIDICULE LOOKING UP HANIC T55 LEADERS IN SAVAK PRISONS AND ET #1651 -unun o_u I I A TEERAN 1691 1 I A 99 2319122 r22 79 PM AME TERRAN TO gazes sacsrAY wAsazc PRIORITY 3553 INFO AN 1337 aAsarAn 1311 auznm CAIRO 5594 LARASCUS ave DSA- RAN 2255 DORA 3799 RUSBQDIAREHBASSY ISLAHAEAD 5739 JIDDA 4231 IABUL 5195 KDVAIT 4929 Lauren 4291 1366 Aoscow 1441 SY HUSCAT 6788 usv DELEI 3438 PARIS 3723 RABAT @355 non 1342 SANA 3394 TEL Avtv 1529 waxyonz 5545 TUNIS $305 c 2 I A ea TEERAN 61691 INSISTING 0N MODELS OF THE FUTURE FOR IRAN THE SEARS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH IRAN THROUGH A PERIOD OP WESTERNIZAT ION INVOLVING A SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE ERICK TOOK CENTURIES TO DEVELOP IN EUROPE 6 NEVERTHELESS IT HAS RECOHE OEVIOUS THAT ISLAM IS DEEPLI IMBEDDED IN THE LIVES OP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE IN ITS FORMAT IT HAS OVER THE A CENTURIES RECOHE STRONGLY IDENTIFIED RITE IRANIAN NATIONAL- ISN ETEN BEFORE THE AGE OF NODERN NATIONALISH PENETRATED THE EAST THE PARLAVIS ATTEHPTED TO SUPPLANT THIS ANCIENT NATIONALISN BIA A MODERN VERSION BASED ON A RETURN TO TRADITIONS LE3 ENDS AND CLORIES 03 THE PRE-ISLAHIC PAST THAT EFFORT NIGHT RAVE BEE fl SUCCESSFUL ALLOWED TO TINUE ENGRALLENCED POR MANY MORE DECADES OR CENTDRIES ITS- SUCCESS DEPENDED ON CREATION OF INSTITUTIONS WITH ANONC THE PEOPLE TO COMPETE NITH THAT OP SRI ITE REFORNING PAHLAVI HONARCRI HAS CHALLENGER EARLY ON BI ANOTHER WESTERN IDEOLOOY 6- COHHUNISH ITS INFANT PARLIAMENTA-RI AND OTHER GOVERNHENTAL INSTITUTIONS CAME CLOSE TO BRING TAKEN O-VER IN THE LATE 19465 AND EARLY 19355 THE-ECONHUNIST METHOD OF NESTERNIZATION THE PRESENT SUCCESSFUL DEFENSE AS AINST CHALLENGE AND RISABSORRTION IN THE CREATION OF A MODERN SECULAR AND INEUSTRIALIZEL IRAN BLINDED HIH TO THE MORE ANCIENT CHALLENS OF ISLAN AND ITS HOLD ON THE PEOPLE WHILE SPORTS TO GREAT A NEW IRANIAN THEOLOGY BASED ON 2592 YEARS OF IRANIAN DEVELOPMENT OF THE TERRAN 169 I I A TEES DIRECTED PERSONALLY AND APPEARBD 53 EEAZIAYI IS CLEAR TODAY THAT EILEENEI ITE ISLA M AND BROABENEB GPPOSITION TO EIS 953I32 AHONG MORE AND CLASSES PEOPLE NEIL EEICNC THOSE STRICTLY PRACTICING 3335 THE USE O THE PERSIAN LANGUAGE IS RISICOLZD IT SEEKS THE 53 An RECULARLY HATES ERRORS IN- 3 3 352 733 ONLY REINFORCES THE CHARGE E3 IS AN OF FOREIGN INTERESTS SERVING RATNZP AN HIS OWN PEOPLE EIS hY SCHOLARS HERB TRACE TEE DEVELOP- HZNT IN TEENS ITS RESISTANCE TO AUTHORITY SEVEEA L STAGES ORIGINALLY A MARK OF PERSIAN RESISTANCE TC ARAB A33 0L IRANIAN SHI ISH SPLIT AND THE NAJOR BIVI SIGN IN A SENSE VENT UNDERGROUND AFTER THE SAFAVIB AB OFTED IT AS THE OFFICIAL COURT RELIGION THESE ERSIF N RULEES TRANSPORHBD SHI ISM INTO A TYPE OF 53 353 PEFSIAN SCEOLARS TELL US THAT I5 THEY IEVANIEB AME GOT A PART OF TEE SKI A TO THE INS ACOUIESCENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE 'c _39 r AT 5 A 0 THE 12TH IHAH TF5 KINC COULD NECESSARY TEHPORAL DECISIONS CON- Cezazu 75 THIS OFFICIAL sarnvr 1 STRAIN HOWEVER was THE use IAL STPAIN or ALAVI v rca BELIEVED Fazacazp TO ouusr AND coaaupw aanaas AND ch 325 THE aucrsz nocwaznz or THE EXISTENCE BOTH STRAINS IN SHI ISH I3 MARKED BY srsrans c ncsouzs DATING ESPECIALLY FROM THE 0 55-1 ca na IN MANY IRANIAN CITIES TICSE BUILT at TI 3 SHAH A BSUPPORTEB BY NIH THOSE a TEE PEOPLE Annz aarsn IN 8T THEM THE APPOIN725 9 9 OVER THE SHAH mosouas 30 2o an a ran aanrzvans v30 soacsr our THEIR 2 a HULL ass AND rostzaans TO WHOM THEY aEunaam OBEDIENGE PAIE IFEIR FIS UNDERGROUND ALAVITE STRAIN CI P E TC SGEFA 2 IN THE 19TH CENTURY WITH THE TOBACCO #1691 f Anus I I A 1691 2 TERRAN 1691 2 0 I I 9 9319192 FEB 73 PH AHEHBASSY 929319 To vnsanc 99199191-3551 INFO 99959 1339 nusaca usxuw 9999999 1912 assess 99293155 CAIRO 5595 nszanaxnuznnassr naunscus 9793 DRASRAN 2966 DORA 9999 nusrcn Auznzassr 3791 JIDBA 4932 91399 5199 999119 4939 LONBON 4292 909999 19299953 RUENPSIAMEMBASSY 999999 599995351 RUERTNIAHEHEASSI HANAHA 1361 Mascot 1442 HUSCAT 9799 saw DELRI 3439 PARIS 9724 99399 9356 9093 1343 SANA 9395 TEL AVIV 1621 TRIPOLI 9596 TCNIS 9326 RT I I A SECTION GS TERRAN 31691 REBELLION WHEN THE CLERGY SUCCESSFULLI LED A EOICOTT AGAINST THE GRANT OF A TOBACCO HONOPOLI TO THE BRITISH IT WAS THE KEY FORCE BEHIND THE REVOLUTION AT THE TURN 0 THIS CENTURY NRICE PRODUCED THE CURRENT CONSTITUTION IN 1926 AND 193 FORCED AGAIN INTO AN INACTITE ROLE BY THE PARLAVI SEARS TRE ALAVITE STRAIN IS THE HEART OF THE SUCCESSEUL REVOLUTION TODAY 10 IF ONE EXANINES IRAN FOR POLITICAL STRUCTURES TODAY ONE IS STRUCK BY THE APPEARANCE OF A UASTELAND MODERN PARLIAPENTARI DEMOCRACY HAS HAD LITTLE SUCCESS IN THE SHORT PERIOD TEEN IT HAS TRIED AND IT IS AN ADAGE HERE THAT TRE ONLY RELATIVELI EFFECTIVE POLITICAL PARTY IN THE PAST EAS BEEN TEE COHMUNIST OR TUDER PARTY NOTARLES AND OTHER PONERFUL PERSONS INCLUDING MANY NULLAHS HAVE BEEN REPRESENTED IN THE PARLIAMENT A5 INDIVIDUALS WITH FOILCNINGS NEG MAKE TEMPORARY ALLIANCES WITH BACK OTHER BUT HAVE DONE PRE IGUS LITTLE TO ADVANCE THE INSTITUTION LRVOCRAT IC GOVT AS UNDERSTOOD-IN THE REST TEE OF PRIME NINISTER WHO ACHIEVED A DEGREE OF TONER TO CHALLENG TRAT 0 THE SHAH NOSSADEQ OPERATED IN A PER- SONAIIZED ADTECRITARIAN EAT WHICH LEFT A NEHORY AND A POLITICAL LEGACY IN IRAN BUT NO POLITICAL ORGANIZATION 03 P OP INSTITUTI-ONALI-ZATION- IN SHORT A CENT REL A GRIP ON THE-PEOPLE HAS ALNAIS BEEN NECESSARY TO RULE IRAN 11 THE ISLAMIC ESTABLISHMENT HAS DRANN RENEWED VIGOR FRGH TEE LIT REACT AND EDUCATION DRIVES I SO MUCH OF THE IRANIAN POPDLATION OVER THE PAST -43- 9392M 1691 3 I I I A I TERRAN 1691 3 c2 TIT smarts mamas cm can Ton an Tar 30515-3 Tests vauTO PHEUH zTTax ARTS or awn evens IZATIITN 1H T8 EIR O s 0a EUROPEAN 3 EN UNIIERSITIES THE rsnanrc ESTABLISHMENT ITsth wazc a sas cazaznazzr TA ZN BY SURPRISE at THE ONSLAUGET cg 3 215 ans ovzn THE PAST TTO oa THEE BECABES ucz 7 a as a ATTIJR GONE TIT TO Inwuxtzs ITSTLE extra tats Tarzan IDEO OGY VEANHHILE IT HAS MOVED TC IE 1T5 CAN IONS TEE WORLD ART OF THE ROLE SEII SAN FLAT IN GOVERNING IRAN 12 BY SCHOLARS HERE SEIA ISLAM TEACHERS N67 333 T0 I53 UNCHANGING VRLUES EMBODIED IN THE IN THE 3L NNA TRABITIOHS OF THE BEBES AND SATINGS 33 ALSO THE NEED FOR REINTERPRETATION T0 KEEP CF TIPSS THE PRINCIPLES OF ISLAMIC In ARE WCE TEE AS EYNANIC IN THIS SENSE ARE EJI 3353 OH REINTERPRETATION OF THE ETERNAE IERITIES A AND HEJHA OR HCONSENSUS I E 3 Lzanzas czaTAIn saw INTERPRETATIOHS ARE s x T rTza p 39 HIT Tones OT THE Law THAT TKIS AMOUNT 5 Tc IS A CCNTINUING GRIP on THE Inaurau POPULATION 5 at A CLBIICAL oasza warca 5 AT LEAST PARTIKLET MOEERSIZIW at ITS can sonnets OT FUNDS AND ORGANIZING 75 on cannuzns or COMNUNICATION AHOHG TEE gas EEGOME 3LEAR BEYOND an DOUBT THAT HOST OT THE nascaANTs CONTINUE To SUPPORT THE RELIGIOUS TIT AND REGULAR CONTRIBUTIONS MILLIONS OT EOLL I S pass TRE EANIBS OF THE TOP ATATOLLAHS o Tsar THESE OO FOR A VARIETY or soon wonxs AND TEE 13 AN c ORGANIZATION IN THIS REGARD Is A RELIG Toss 5c -OOL SYSTEM assau 32 TEARS TOO at LN AYATOLLAE '20 IS THIGH ans snows TO 1559 scaOOLs SPTEAT ALL 0138 IRIN TEE SCHOOL SYSTEM 5 ENTIRELY a BAZAARI ruuns AND STUDENTS FROM PROMINENT ggLIOzcvs AND OTHER FAHILIES TAKE HOT ounr THE 1 I #1591 u r I I A TBHRAN 1691 3 -44 courrnzurxtn 6316102 FEB 78 PM anznaassr 73335 To Pazoaxmr 3662 INFO AHMAN 1339 Bxaanan 1313 carac 5596 Dannscus 9769 DEANRAN 235 903A 2361 3782 JIDDA 4233 KABUL 519 KUWAIT 4931- Lennon 4293 Bunyan Inaanassr annexe anznaassr nuannT gaznsassr Hangar nuzwaassr HANNHA 1362 Moscow 1443 ncscaw e799 DELHI 3449 PARIS 3725 9357 ROME 1345 SANA @595 TEL ANIV 1622 warren 9547 was 339 BT I I A I SEGTIGN G4 TEERAN 91691 ancurnzn covw counszs raven IN covr spnoons 237 ALSO SOME-RELIGIOUS counszs waxca THE GOVT 8A5 3533 u 115 seasons AN EFFORT BY was 60 we TAKE THESE scsoons evan- A raw 1 535 AGO HA5 BY was aazxamt ssragnrsanzur xoaca Pnorzssoas nun ornza LEARNED pzasoxs VOLUNTEER lea to sacs seasons so THAT THE cannuarn WITH AND to ASSURE raata IN THE UNIVERSITIES as HIV sans A urns vaarnrr or AND noozs PRODUCED you 853 IN sacs scsoons ggrfaq g ICA12 was or ORGANIZATION IN THE nosnzn' Ian-Ii 0 14 THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE TEE MUCH IN EVIDENCE ARE CRIPTO-COHNUNISTS ILTNOUGH SUCH ILK HAT HELL HAVE INFILTRATED CARP FURTHER ICNN TNE ISLAMIC ESTABLISHMENT IS NEITHER AS WEAK NOR AS IGNORNNT L5 TEE GOVT AND SOME WESTERN OBSERVERS NOULD PORTRAT IT IT HAS A FIR GRIP ON THE ENGTIGNS OF THE PEOPLE AND ON THE 0 BAZAAR THAN ANY OTHER GROUP IN UNIS IT SUPPONTS A VIEN 0F IRAN NEIGE IS FAR ATTRACTIVE TO HOST IRANIANS AT THIS TIME THAN THE NOBELB REPRESENTED BY THE SOVIET UNION OR HAINLAND 15 ON THE OTHER HAND IT IS NOT GUINANTEED TO OPERATE IN PARLIAEENTAET IN THE IS PACT TEE OF I TLOVASAIARI IS SAIE-TO BE EMBEBDEE IZEPLI IN INS APPROKGH 45- IBERLN 169f 4 I I I a AUTHORITY TO BE COLLECTIVE SUGGESTED BY THE PRINCIPLE OF EJHA I EITHER THAN REPOSINS IN A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL EVEN ONE HORE EQUAL-THAT THE OTRERS SUCH AS IHAH IROHEINI DEAL OF IS LIKELY TO BE EXERCISZD BI RN ISLAMIC COUNCIL THOUGH TEE OF SUCH A COUNCIL IS STILL NOT CLEAR UNDER THE PROORLN POLITICAL LEABERS RATHER TRAN HULLAHS NOOLO KPPEAR DESTINED TO PLAY THE PREPONDERANT ROLE ANL EILCUTING GOVT POLICY TRE ILEA TRAT EXPERTS SHOULD BE JUECED 3 THE RELIGIOUS LEADERSHIP END THEN REINFORCED IN THEIR EXPERTISE T0 VARIOUS AREAS OF TRE ECONOMY IS PART OF TEE PROPOSED GOVERNING PROCESS AS NR UNEER- STAND IT THUS ON THE SURFACE IT COULD AFFEAR THAT THE YESTERNIZEE PROCESS OF POLITICRL PARTIES VTINO 1N PARLIA- HENT TO SET POLICY COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED BY A MORE INFORMAL AND TRADITIONAL PROCESS TO EECISION-NAKING THROUGH VARIOUS GROUPS ACHIEVING CONSENSUS 16 ALL THIS IS VASUE IT THIS STAGE ROUEVEB IND VB SUSPECT WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO RVOID HARINS SOME ACCOHMOOATIONS WITH NESTERNIZED IDEAS OF GOVT HELD EI MANY IN THE OPPOSITION NOVEHENT THIS VOULD BE LIKELY TO APPEAR OVER A PERIOD OF TIME RATHER THAN IHEEDIRTELI WE CAN EXPECT ROLE A POST REVOLUTIONARY ISLAMIC MOVEMENT WOULC RAVE BROAD POPULAR SUPPORT IT WOULD PROBABLY RESIST COHHUNISH AS AN ALIEN INFORT TO TEE BEST OF ITS ABILITY AS WELL AS RESISTING OTHER ASPECTS OF UESTERNIZRTION SULLIVAN PT #1691 0 I I A -45- wzaaw 1691 4 TEERAN 1691This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu