Transcription from poorly legible copy Top of cable illegible From William Sullivan S'ubj Unthinkab'le 1 With the incidence of Shi i 2-3 words illegible on Saturday November 11 word illegible its word illegible Thursday-Friday weekend Iran has entered on a long three day holiday Current indications are that it will be quiet but we shall have to test its temper as the days pass Sunday November 12 will be a critical day because only then will we see whether the military government will be successful in getting this country back to productive work 2 In the meantime it might be useful to engage in some fundamental examinations of the situation in Iran and the future of U S-Iran relations In doing this it is probably healthy to examine some options which we have never before considered relevant 3 For foreigners the general cliche about Iran has been that its society rested on two pillars -- the monarchy and the Shi a religion For the past fteen years the religious pillar has been very much subordinated and the tilt has been decidedly towards the monarchy It is not necessary in this message to describe the way in which the religious pillar has been changed or seen a change in the past ten months However it may be necessary to examine very closely the changes which have taken place in the monarchy pillar 4 First the authority of the Shah has considerably shrunk His support among the general public has bec'ome almost invisible these days Portraits of the imperial family which formerly adorned every shop widow have nearly totally disappeared Whether the views of the silent majority the only tangible evidence of Iranian support for the monarchy comes from the armed forces It has therefore become commonplace to refer to the monarchy as the Shah -- supported by the military 5 However even within that relationship events of recent days may have produced a subtle change It may be more correct at this time to speak of the monarchy pillar as being constituted essentially of the military which currently supports the Shah In consequence the two elements that need our examination are the military and the religious 6 At the moment these two elements are ostensibly in confrontation The religious have called for the equivalent of Satyagraha -- passive resistance with strikes in strategic areas of the economy The oil production facilities Iran Air and the telecommunications system seem to be the prime targets of their attention If the military can get these areas of the economy back in ill production peaceably they will probably be able to prevail over the religious but the relationship 2 1 2 lines illegible 7 On the other hand if the military are to restore production and to break the tide of passive resistance they will reach the point of making a fateful decision -- either to enforce production by a bloodbath or to reach an accommodation with the religious Since the latter are dominated by Ayatollah Khomeini it must be assumed that a pre- condition for an accommodation would be the acceptance of his insistence that the shah must leave and the monarchy be dis-established in favor of an Islamic Republic 8 It is rather dif cult to imagine a man like Prime Minister General Azhari willingly plunging his country into a blood bath It is equally dif cult to imagine him or most military of cers of his vintage inciting the Shah to abdicate However if the Shah and the military both shy away from the bloodbath it may eventuate that both the Shah and the more senior military would abdicate leaving the armed forces under the leadership of younger of cers who would be prepared to reach an accommodation with the religious 9 If such a turn of events should transpire it would be important for the US to have done a careful evaluation of its consequences for our position and that of our allies with respect to Iran The following considerations are relevant A Both the Iranian Armed Forces and the Khomeini Muslims are strongly anti- communist and anti-Soviet We say this despite reports of alleged communist in ltration of Khomeini s circle of advisors B The younger military of cers have a genuine pro-West orientation All Air Force most Army and many Navy of cers have been trained in the US Those Navy not trained in US have been trained in UK and Italy C Despite religious complaints that the West is stealing Iranian oil logic of Iran s economic ties with West would have to assert itself in any realistic appraisal of Iran s economic survival D Iranian military ought to be able to preserve its integrity and not RPT not evaporate Religious would nd it useful for military to remain intact because they have no RPT no Islamic instruments for maintaining law and order or the integrity and defense of the nation B As consequence of any military mullah accommodation Khomeini could be expected returcato sicz return to Iran in triumph and 2 words illegible like position in the political constellation He has said that at such time he would reveal the name of his candidate for political leadership However it would presumably have to be someone acceptable to the military rather than a Nasser Gadhafi type that might be the Ayatollah s preferred candidate F If as result of foregoing considerations non-communist moderate political gures like Bazargan and Minatchi should emerge in positions of responsibility they would call for elections to a constituent assembly to draw up a constitution for an Islamic Republic of Iran If elections are held in any atmosphere other than one of frenzy such assembly ought to contain a strong percent of non communists non-lslamic fanatics and pro- western moderates who would have considerable in uence in developing a responsible constitutional document G While it is dif cult to predict the sort of government which might emerge from subsequent general elections there would be reasons to hope that it would maintain Iran s general international orientation except that it would cease its ties with Israel and associate itself with the Arabs prosebly sic closer to the Rejectionist Front than to Saudi Arabia It would probably be a Kuwait writ large in its general orientation H Although U S involvement would be less intimate than with the Shah it could be an essentially satisfactory one particularly if the military preserves both its integrity and its status as one of the pillars of the nation There would presumably be fewer Americans 2 lines illegible 10 Word illegible this rather word illegible scenario could come about only if every step along the way turned out well Any single misstep anywhere could destroy it and lead to unpredictable consequences Therefore it should not RPT not be interpreted as this Embassy s prediction of future events 11 Our current word illegible of trusting that the Shah together with the military will be able to face down the Khomeini threat is obviously the only safe course to pursue at this juncture However if it should fail and if the Shah should abdicate we need to think the unthinkable at this time in order to give our thoughts some precision should the unthinkable contingency arise Sullivan This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu