if - UNCLASSIFIED vi SMS - Record Copy w RELEASED IN PART B1 United States Department of State Bureau of Inte igence and Research The Secretary s Morning Intelligence Summary July 23 1994 Dept of Margaret eld Dir 3 C assify Extend as Downgrade to on Reason Hulda UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY HOWARD LANGE CLASSIFICATION SECRET REASON 25X1 06 AUG 2008 200403712 DPFIK Not Much Movement Pyongyang has yet to con rm that Kim long has inherited his father s formal positions The North s policy q engagement with the United States - appears on track but prospects for a North-South summit have worsened Leadership 011 the surface the succession has proceeded smoothly with much the same methodical preci- sion that has marked the process over the past two decades Kim Jong II is ranked rst in the leader- ship and is receiving expressions of allegiance from the people and the media as the successor He has appeared numerous times since his father s death and had meetings with several foreigners Pyongy- ang is making a Special offer to overcome the impression that Kim does not like meeting outsid- ers or cannot handle foreign affairs There is no infonnation one way or the other to judge the security of Kim s position or the situation inside the leadership The leadership turnouts for Kim 11 Sung s funeral reflected no changes in make ing other than the placement of Kim's widow among the party Political Bmcau members much higher than her normal position An editorial in the party newspaper yesterday - the rst authoritative- comment in the post Kim ll Sung era - contained what might be an early hint of dilferences in the leadership The editorial warned Delphically that there must not be the slightest attempt to damage Kim Sung s accomplishments which must be upheld without the slightest deviation talks All signs suggest the policy of engagement with the United States remains on track Even before the July 21 meeting at which it set the date for resum- ing the third round the North had used the New York channel several times to emphasize that it wanted to get back to the talks soon In the most telling signal the North has kept the public atmosphere good for another meeting It has clearly avoided criticism of the United States - even to the extent of dropping routine references to the US role in the Korean war - while playing up the o icial US reaction to Kim s death A good test of how far the North intends to go in this direction will be the treatment of the July 27 anniversary of the 1953 armistice agreement when Pyongyang will have a chance to point to the possibility of a new relationship with the United States Positive as all the signals are however they do not necessarily con rm that the general position Pyongyang advanced at the Opening session of the third round on July 8 remains on track As yet there has boon nothing Speci c On which to hang ajudg- ment about the North s probable course at the next meeting summit The atmosphere for a summit has soured with Pyongyang continuing to criticize the South for its treatment of Kim Il Sung s death Pyongyang un- derstands there is a link between a deterioration in North South relations and talks and that a downturn in inter-Korean relations risks slowing progress in Geneva It knows the problems that arise when Seoul feels slighted which is why it decided last month that the best way to ensure progress in talks was to engage the South Tactically the North can use the negative turn in inter-Korean ties to its advantage at the next Ge- neva meeting for example to counter the US position that there should be early progress in im- plementing the North South denuclearization dec- laration Whether Kim Jong ll himself wants to exploit the North-South dif culties in the talks with 2377-94 UNCLASSIFIED out visage a the United States remains to be Seen The toughest comment to date against the South has come from the Vice Defense Minister at Kim Il Sung s memo- rial service on July 20 Otherwise Pyongyang has stuck to low-level or indirect c ticism of Seoul leaving the way open for resumed North-South dialogue SECRET he 8 wan - 1 in face Lgcg g 4 2 56-12377-This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu