UNCLASSIFIED -Record Copy LI nu CONFIDENTIAL Eg 113 I I United States Department of State Bureau of inteliigence and Research RELEASED IN-PART B1 The Secretary s Morning Intelligence Summary August 25 1994 Dept of State Mam Dir 3 Classify as Ext ud as Downgrade toil Dedassifym Reason UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY HOWARD LAN GE CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON DECLASSIFY AFTER 24 AUG 2019 ID 07 AUG 2008 200403712 CUNHUENIIAL 9330 257 1 UNCLASSIFIED FIN-1 Tm ULAJ UNCLASSIFIED IDW CUNHDENTIAL 1 DPRK Slow-Motion Succession Kim long It has apparently been hospitalized creating a leadership vacuum and slowing consolidation of his succession The lack af rm leadership has allowed a reopening of old debates on policy toward the South and the economy so far relations appear uninfected Seven weeks after his father s death Kim Jong II has still not taken over as head of party and state The of cial North Korean explanation that a new leader cannot be installed while the people are still in mourning - is wearing thin Evidence is accumu lating that there are other forces at work IndiSposed There have been numerous reports that Kim Jong It is ill Several sources say he has diabetes perhaps complicated by other ailments Illness would explain Kim s prolonged absence from pub- lic view at a time when he should be highly visible It may also have created a leadership vacuum when the system can least afford it If Kim does not make an appearance on National Day early next month new questions will arise about his position Not ready for prime time An unattributed August 21 Pyongyang radio talk on the succession implicitly admitted that the proc ess was incomplete The talk noted that even when the successor is designated in a timely manner it does not mean that the question of the leader s successor is completely commentary emphasized that work remains to be done in build- ing the party s organizational and ideological foun- dations and in establishing the successor s leader- ship system both tasks that a symposium last December credited Kim Jong with having suc- cessfully completed Under attack There are other signs that the succession may be sputteringl ISince Kim 11 Sung s funeral moreover North Korean media have urged that Kim s legacy be followed without deviation implying concern about a potential chal- lenge to the succession Such concerns may have been heightened by recent radio broadcasts prais- ing Kim Il Sung s skill in dealing with foreign leaders a sensitive topic in view of Kim Jong ll's reputed discomfort around foreigners Policy debate B1 With the succession process temporarily slowed the leadership debate has apparently reopened on two crucial policy areas reunification and the economy This is all the more Stu-prising in that Kim Il Sung had set a de nitive line in both areas before his death coming out strongly in support of poli- cies long favored by Kim Jong II In particular the younger Kim had pushed hard for giving priority to light industry a policy nally enshrined in a major plenum decision last December In the past few weeks however there have been unattributed radio talks the classic vehicle for airing differing leader- ship views emphasizing the importance of heavy industry and conspicuously failing to mention the plenum decisions B1 B1 80-12412-94 UNCLASSIFIED l l CUNHDEWAL 1 gab- August 25 1994 UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL 1 Itliers is unchanged The only anomaly has been the ranking of Korean People s Army vice marshals ahead of the party secretaries on two ceremonial occasions Kim Jong II will have to make some leadership changes soon to root out pockets of opposition and put his own stamp on his regime The reference in the August 21 radio talk to estab- Iron broom 13 1 3 shing the successor s leadership system sug- - gests that this un nished business will be addressed soon The leadership lineup Korean Workers parry CONFIDENTIAL Politburo members party secretaries and vice pre- CONFIDENTIAL sc 12412 94 WW Augus 25 1994 UNCLASSIFIED This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu