T O P SECRET When With Attachment M a y 1 1969 MEMORANDUM FOR DR KISSINGER FROM L a r r y Lynn SUBJECT Talking Paper on Firing on Warning Issue I I Alex Butterfield indicatedthat the President wants you to talk to a few prominent news columnists such a s Joe Alsop about the issue of firing our offensive missiles on early warning as a way of protecting them fromattack A s I recall this issue came up several weeks ago during hearings conducted by Senator Fulbright and both Fulbright and Gore said they thought that launching our ICBMs on warning would be a better protection for themthan building an ABM Enclosed are talkingpoints you can use in such discussions Paragraph 2 has Top Secret information init I don't think that v e r y many serious opponents of the ABM believe that the firing on warning'' doctrine should r e a l l y be adopted by the President The fact that the idea has attracted any interest at all indicates the irrationality of much of the A B M opposition The high sense of responsibility the President showed in his ABM decision is in sharp contrast to those who will go to such lengths a s to suggest firing on warning as an alternative Enclosure Tab A Talking Paper - f Y' 4 ST EO CPR E T i' # ' ' TALKING PAPER ON FIRING ON WARNING 1 U ' A doctrine of firing our ICBMs on warning would be dangerous and irresponsible We would be launching unrecallable missiles at China or the Soviet Union on the basis of totally inadequate information and with a very real possibilityof disastrous mistakes 2 TS Some of our present early warning systems have a significant false alarm or false report rate For example 50% of the initial reports from our Over-the-Horizon radars are false After 10 minutes of additional processing 10% of the reports are still false Our Ballistic Missile Early Warning System BMEWS produces 40-50 false reports per year Moreover it does not cover all o f China Our new early warning satellite may produce one false alarm per year -- 3 U Thus the possibility of a disastrous mistake launching an attack on Russia o r Chipa because geese or sunspots trigger a false alarm i s a v e r y r e a l one Defending our long-range m i s s i l e s ' by putting a hair trigger on them would significantly increase the probability of nuclear war and reduce our security -- 4 U Even with fool proof warning systems no President could launch U S missiles at Russia or China without determining as fully as possiblehow many missiles were inthe attack where they w e r e launched from where they were likely to hitthe U S whether or not the attack was deliberate and what would be the most appropriate U S response Launching on warning would allow no thought o r no positive control only a spasm reaction 5 U The President chose Safeguard precisely because it has the opposite effects He can take positive action to defend against an attack without unleashing a holocaust He can protect our deterrent while preserving a maximum number of options f o r a measured and appropriate response He has more than all-or-nothing choices Even a mistaken launch o f an ABM missile would not be disastrous because it could'not reach Russia or China TOP SECRET TOP SECRET 6 U IC is paradoxical that people who oppose a defensive system because it i s provocative could advocate instead a doctrine which is so obviously dangerous TOP SECRET This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu