Dr Jacob E G i l s t e i n Deputy A s s i s t a n tS e c r e t o r y o f the Amy H scarch and Devebopment f o r B a l l i s t i c M i s s i l e Defcnsc and D i r e c t o r U S Army Advatlced B a l l i s t i c M i s s i l e Defense Agency Hr J u l i a nD a v i d s o n D i r e c t o r l u n t s v i L l e o f f i c U S Army A r l v n n c c d B a l 1 i s t i c I J i i s i l e Dcfcnse Agency Lt G e n w a lA l f r e d D S t a r b i r d USA Manager U S Army SafeglrardSystcm Dr Richard L G z v i n F h y s i c i s t Cc1nmbi a U n i v e r s i t y ColonclArchie L k'cod USAF A s s i s t a n t f o r SALT to Dr Gardiner Tucker I ASD SA Commandcr Jsmcs I Mart'in Jr US D % r a c t o r S t r a t e g i c R c t a l i n t n r y nivisi cn O SD % Mr lame R Scitlc in 7cr AxwistantDirector o f t h e@ EUR P i c e of Mctr e ncnt nd Budget Exccutive Office o f t h eP r e s i d e n t Mr P h i l i p J P a r l e y Deputy D i r e c t o r ACDA 1I j i i i I I WrittenSubmissions Charts Used i n Mr Dayidson'sPresentation Annex A TheCoamittechestions I' I I On Hard-point Dcfcnsc f o r Mcssrs Gilstein and Davidson Annex E O n 1CBI I S u r v i v a b i l i t y f o r C o l o n e l Wood and Comnander Martin o r i g i n a l l yp r e p a r e df o r Dr GardinerTuckcr Annex C On ICBM V u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r Mr S c h l e s i n q e r Annex D On ICBM V u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r M r F a r l e y Annex E Committee Members P r e s e n t Mr John J McCloy Chairman Dr Harold Brown Mr William J Casey Mr William C F o s t e r Mr Kermit Gordon Dr James R K i l l i a n Dr JackRuina Governor W i l l i r m Scranton Dr John ArchibaldWheeler Commi ttcc S t a f f P r e s e n t Mr Thomas W P i n a Mr George 6 J Jaeger Mr Richard Gookin I Otllcrs Present Elr Gerard Smith D i r e c t o r ACDA Flr Howard F u r o a s S p c c i a l A d v i s o r t o the Chairman Stcnotvpists MI A r n o l d A Cohn Mrs Wyllna H James Mr Wendell 11 T h i c r s 1-I i I I I i i two s y s t a s a r e so s u r v i v a b i l i t y T h e s e d i f f e r e n tt h a tt h e y a r ev e r yd i f f i c u l t tq compare I t h i n k our c o n f i d e n c e i s much'higher _ - t h e SSBN's But i n t h e s u r v i v a b i l i t yo f - DR BROWN Because we c a np r e d i c ti X ' b e t t e r The Soviet c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e i r a b i l i t y t o d e s t r o yt h e get o f f i s p r o b a b l y n2-k much h i g h e r t h a nt h e i rc o n f i d e n c e o f t h e i r a b i l i t y to destroy t h e bombers b e f o z e t h e y submarines B u t o u rc o n f i d e n c et h a tt h e y - won't be a b l e t o i s much less I t h i n kt h a tr e a l l y i s t h ed i s t i n c t i o n Colonel I'vebeenpuzzled MR GOREOX i s a p l a u s i b l es c e n a r i o w h e t h e r i n y o u rj u d g m e n t t h e r e f o r a S o v i e t first s t r i k e a g a i n s t b o t h t h e t h e bombers MINUTEMAN and I ' m a l l mixed up on t h i s t i m i n g question Yes COLONEL WOOD Couldyou MR GORDON t a l k a b w tt h a tf o r a minute I COLONEL I Vulnerability 1 d i f f e r e n t point WOOD -- and t h i st i m i n gq u e s t i o n -- Yes r i g h t -- l e t ' s Jim let's s t a r t from a s l i g h t l y I may a s k you EURor some helpon ' s t a r t from a s t l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t _ ' ' - ' fp '1 ' _ _I_ _ ' -1 1 TOP t I T ' ' x ' - ' i J ' point If t h e Minuteman f o r c e and t h e bomber f o r c e a f i r s t s t r i k e by the were thought t o b e v u l n e r a b l e t o a crisis those S o v i e t s and i n t h e e v e n t o f c o u l dp r o v i d ea ni n c e n t i v et o a first strike t h e S o v i e t st oa t t e m p t So t h a t ' s a situation i n which such a t h i n g m i g h t occur things incidentally to two f o r c e s c And t h a t ' so n eo f Se quiteconcernedabout the -- a force' which h a s less t h a n a d e q u a t e s u r v a b i l i t y c h r a c t e r i s t i c s p r e - l a u n c hs u r v i v a b i l i t yc h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Jim why don't you take t h e t i m i n g q u e s t i o n the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f barbers - t h e a t t a c ka g a i n s t -- t h e ICBM's and t h e and t a l k - a b o u t t h a t t i r L n g q u e s t i o n just a little bit _ ' DR MARTIN i n most hings it's - The way the argument usuall%goes _ - a q u e s t i o n o f c o n f i d e n c e b u t t h e way t h e argument u s u a l l yg o e s as a iovietplanner t h e bombers II f i s a sf o l l o w s o f our launch and ICBM CMDR i Minuteman and Assume you g o t e f f e c t i v e It's o v e r s i m p l i f i e d i f you have _ Picture yourself who wants t o d e s t r o y b o t h DR BROWN - - -- MARTIN T bh a saitc' sa l l y ' i r iI L e at o vg e e t haerrr ti o vg eether -- well l e a vteo g e t h e r weapons againsteach r two b a s e s The c o o r d i n a t i o n it 1 i ' '' Now if they l e t me t a k e the o t h e r case I f th ey - -i c 1 r % j - - -_ TOP ' __ - arrive together DR BROWN Tolaunchthe l e a s L 2 0p i n u t e s o f warning NCY -- more t h a nt h a t g o t h a l f o f whatthey i f t h e yl e a v et o g e t h e r t h e nt h e satisfactoq _ B u tt h e yr i s kl a u n c h o n - a r n i BROWN Now t h a t ' s p r o b a b l y - SLBM's - when t h e P r e s i d e n t m i g h t d e c i d e t o l a u n c h t o get s e t o u t t o do will g e t t o t h e bomber b a s e first DR -- So d l e r t bombers a r ef l u s h - a n d their bombers o f f and theyonly The ICBM'swili provide a t c m R MARTIN - ICBM's of t h e i r onwarning more of a launch on warning case for t h e S o v i e t s b e c a u s e t h e i n f o r m a t- ion on which-the P r e s i d e c k would a c t would n o t o n l y b e d e t e c t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t ICBM % on o u r r a d a ri s u r v e i l l a n c e b u t hundreds of n u c l e a r weapons on the b o h e r bases DR well you know some t h e o r i s t s would BROWN l claim that that's n o t any p r o o f o f a counter-population But t o a COunt Y' t h a t hac a t t a c k on the Uniked States e x p e r i e n c e ds o m e t h i n gl i k et h a t I'm n o t s u r e the d would be a'n obvious one DR RUINA Well theygetinto a l l kinds o f 1 - - _ _ Top _ ' I1 arguments on whatyoudo insuchsituations And we've gonethrough I t h i n k some oEUR t h e s e s c e n a r i o s B u t i f a l l our forces were t a k e n e x c e p tt h es u b m a r i n e f o r i e s would youtake - ' them -- excepting s u i c i d e t h a t k i n d you know I DR BROWN Well I t h i n k w h a t you cansay t h e S o v i e t s would t h e n b e r i s k i n g Minuteman -7 Minuteman is - 5 rzsponsewith would pot havedestroyed i no t h e rw o r d s t h e y I f t h e P r e s i d e n td e c i d e dt h e nn o tt ol a u n c h - them t h e ym i q h ts u b s e q u e n t l yb ed e s t r o y e d b u tt h a e sn o t t h e i ro p t i o n anymore That' s a U S o p t i o n w h i c h they would have t o f i g u r e o u t t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f There i s h o w e v e r t h es e p a r a t eq u e s t i o no f pinwheeling which is often r a i s e d it stands t h i s y e a r And- I don'tknowwhere I t ' s a b o u tf o u ry e a r so l d sure whether i t ' s beenresolved I'm n o t It's t h e i d e ao fl a u n c h i n g 1 SLBM's simultaneously a t t h e bomber b a s e s and at the a r e a above Minuteman -- whichdoesn'tdestroy prevents you from l a u n c h i n g i t u n t i l t h e Minuteman b u t ICBM's a r r i v e w i t h and destroy CMDR MARTIN X- - ana3 ySjswhichpresumes - Well I ' v es e e n ourhardening a very recent of Minuteman I 1 has - been completed and Minuteman I i s on the floor a l l of our Minuteman f o r c e s a r e r e l a t i v g l y SO h a rdened -- a g a i n s t ' t h a t effect about one SLBM per squadron _ r a t h e r than pne over t h e entire Continental United States -I _ _ ' and t o p i n Mj nuteman J o n a high-cmfidence man under those circumstances t a k e s maybe 20 or 25 boatloads f o r t h a t purpose only of SLBM's DR Wouldn'tyou RUINA pindown of Minute- - need an I R warning t o y e t bombers o f f anyway DR BROW We're NO talkingaboutsimultaneous launching of SLBI4's - a g a i n s t t h e bomber bases and t o keeg the Minuteman pinned down DR HOW much time RUINA It's minutes DR BROWN B u t i n t h a t c a s e you-'don - _- 't have t o worry about the question bombers and missiles which says Well n ovt e r y much of simultaneous destruction the bombers a r e somewhat a t risk' Imayke t oo t n l ya r e i n an attempt t o p r o v et h a n missiles can s i m u l t a n e o i s l y b e a t risk ' COLONEL WOOD TOP ' of the WeYe t a l k i n g now just aboutthecase t h e bombers a t - r i s k b u t t h a t t h e 10 - - a tl e a s t hypothesis was 1 i I i This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu