1 We as - - No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 1 29-2 5 33 31ng MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE TOP SECRET-SENSITIVE CONTAINS CODEWORD January 24 1978 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI NLC Review Completed SUBJECT Information Items Intelligence Soviet Launch On-Warning Capability According to State recently acquired evidence indicates that as much as 70 percent of the current Soviet ICBM force could be ready to launch in about three minutes even from a normal readi- ness posture Previously only those ICBMs in the highest level of preparedness with gyroscopes continuously running presumably only a small portion of the force were believed capable of being launched so quickly This fast reaction ICBM capability has apparently led the Soviets to consider their ICBMs as their prime retaliatory force This may explain in part the Soviet drive for such a large number of landnbased ICBMs This emphasis will continue into the 19803 the intelligence community projects that over two- thirds of the warheads available to the USSR at that time will be deployed on ICBMs While the new evidence is not inconsistent with the Soviet belief that a period of increasing tension will precede nuclear conflict it indicates that they have not placed full reliance on systems that take a long time to achieve high readiness The new evidence is also consistent with the USSR's continuing efforts to improve its early warning capabilities and with indications from recent Soviet exer cises and military writings of increasing interest in the launch on-warning concept U S -Japan Trade Relations An interagency technical group estimates that the new Japanese package that resulted from last week's U S -Japan trade consultations will not be sufficient to prevent another large current account surplus It calculates that while the surplus will decline'from the $11 billion reached in 1977 it will still probably amount to $7-10 billion in 1978 The forecast assumes however that the current yen dollar ratio will continue In fact the group feels that the f- 3 3 a 3 F3 OSD DOS review s II I nmmloiod No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-1-5-2-29-2 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu