a ROUTINE RELEASED IN PART ALERT B1 15 1 PACE BL NI TOKYO D4532 D1 OF RT 1435251 INFO EAPIEII A1 DRF ACTION SS-DD INFO 06'63 ans-03 1435251 33 140527 91 EN ANENBASSY TOKYO TD SECSTATE HASHDC 5254 INFO RUEHBKIANENBASSY BANGKOK AHENBASSY JAKARTA ANEHBASSY BEIJING ANEHBASSY KUALA IUNPDR ANEHBASSY NANILA ANENBASSY SINGAPORE ANEHBASSY SEOUL ANEHBASSY CANBERRA ANENRASSY LONDON AHENDASSY NONE AHENBASSY PARIS AHENBASSY BORN ANEHBASSY BRUSSELS ANENBASSY HOSCON USHISSION USNATD TIES CONUSJAPAN YOHOTA AB IA USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI manor 9 or 10mm 34532 Exnls DECAPTIONED 0591 PLEASE PASS newsman YOKUIA as nun HONOLULU mom ALSO $00 POLAR E 0 13355I NEGLIDADN TAGS PNEL IAI IE IIS SHNJECT THE GULF NAN INFANT 0N JAPAN AND RELATIONS REF STATE NEEDED lr So ENTIRE TENT a 2 SUHNARY NNILE NOT UNSUCCESSFUL BY THE STANDARDS OF FOREIGN POLICY OF THE LAST TORTY FINE TEARS THE ESSENTIALLY PASSIVE APPROACH TO THE GULF NAN STIHULATED THE ALREADY EXISTING DEBATE HERE ON ROLE IN THE POST-COLD NAN NORLD NECESSARY ADIUSTNENTS IN U S -JAPAN RELATIONS AND THE ADEOUACT OF POLITICAL AND BUREAUCRATIC SYSTEH TO HANDLE THE HEN CHALLENGES ND CONCLUSIONS HERE REACNED BUT THE OBSTACLES TO A NATURE FOREIGN POLICY HERE NICHLIGHTED INCLUDING ENDURIHC PACIFIST SEHTINENT AND DISTRUST OF THE JAPANESE HILITARY THE GAP BETNEEN THE DESIRE FOR RECOGNITION AS A GREAT PONEN AND NILLINGNESS TO BEAR THE ASSOCIATED RISHS AND RESPONSIBILITIES AND THE INADEOUACY OF BUREAUCRATIC AND PARLIANENTARY SYSTEN IN DEALING NITH CRISIS NANACEHENTZ JAPAN APPEARS TO BE ORANINC SDNE LESSONS TRON THE CRISIS THE GOT NEEDS TO DO NONE THAN SEND HONEY OUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON NHAT THIS CONTRIBUTTON SHOULD BE JAPAN IS NOT A GREAT PONER OR HUNGRY TD BECONE ONE BUT IT NEEDS THE ABILITY TO DO NORE THAN SINPLY FOLLOH THE U S LEAD IN FOREIGN POLICYI AND THE JAPAN SOCIALIST PARTY HAS AGAIN 5305253 COPIES B32 mexm I 5 753 TOKYO 84532 B1 OF 1465292 THE ABILITY TO PUT TOGETHER A HORNINC COALITION HITN THE NONEITD AND DSP PERHAPS ESTABLISHING A PATTERN FOR THE 19985 3 NITH RESPECT TO THE IHPACT OH D S -JAPAN - - RELATIONS ANERICAN SUCCESS REAFFIRNED JAPANESE CONFIDENCE IN OUR STRATEGIC ALLIANCE BUT HAS LEFT SONE SCARES NONE INPORTANTLT THERE IS A CRONING TNENE HERE THAT SELF CONFIDENCE NAT DEVELOP INTO ARRODAHCE DIRECTED AGAINST JAPAN IN PURSUIHC OUR INTERESTS HERE NE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ADUANTADE OF DEFENSIUENESS AND FEAR OF ISOLATION TN THE HARE OF THE CULT CRISIS TO GAIN CREATED COI COOPERATION EED AUDID AH OUERLY CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH THAT RISKS PROUONINC A BACHLASH NE HILL ALSO NEED TO ENHANCE OUR CONSULTATIONS NITN THE COJ ON REGIONAL ISSUES PARTICULARLY NITH RESPECT TO ASTA AND THE RIDDLE EAST IN UIEN OF THE INCREASING POLITICAL AND BUREAUCRATIC PRESSURE HERE FOR JAPAN TO UNDERTANE INDEPENDENT INITIATIVES SETTING I IN TERNS OF THE TRADITIONAL STANDARDS OF POST-NAN FOREIGN POLICY THE ESSENTIALLY PASSIUE APPROACH TO THE SOLE NAN HAS NOT DNSUCCESSFUL END SUHNARY - -- ACCESS TO OIL HAS NOT DISRUPTED AND THE PRICE EDEN FELL ns IAIILE we 19 015mm I CL AS SIFIED UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE- REVIEW AUTHORITY ROBERT H MILLER ID 6 MAY 2002 199405013 INCDMING SSO5253 21A A MIHIMIITITNCEMSSIFIED ROUTINE INCUMINU mm mm 94532 92 or 1496392 3305253 mm 3453 32 or 31 1495392 330525 INFO KEBIJ EAPIHI DENANOS FOR A NONE EUUITAULE APPORTIONHENT DE Ignaz DRF UOPIES HUNT RESPONSIBILITIES MID DESIRE FUR ACTION gm nus an ram IBFOFS 1495352 33 a 1mm HAR s n mananssv TOKYO to seem HASHBC 5255 INFO BANGKOK amass JAKARTA amass 32mm amass mu LUHPIJR amass mung - ssom amass mam manor amass ACNE nmnanssv mus I amass aaussns manssv noscm 1 31 an na coausmm venom AB JA unnuww HI WSECTIOA a or 91 mm 94532 Exms om PLEASE PASS IO conusaamc mom AB nun USCINBPAC Homaww slums ALSO TOR POLAIJ - TAGS PREL NARA JA II US SUBJECT THE GULF NAN IUPACT OH JAPAN AND - JAPANESE RELEASED AT NO POLITICAL OR OTHER COST TO JAPAN -- POST-NAN CONSTITUTIONAL PRONIBITION ON THE USE OF NILITART FORCE REHAINED INTACT - AND FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION OF $13 BILLION DOLLARS TO THE UHF AND THE FRONT LINE STATES ISSO PER JAPANESE PROUEO TO BE A BARGAIN IN TERNS OF BENEFITS HECEIUED 5 NOHEUER THE GULF CRISIS AROSE AT A TINE HHEN JAPANESE HERE ALREADH RAISING OUESTIONS ABOUT ROLE IN THE POST COLD UAR NONLD AND SERUED AS A CATALYST TO THIS DEBATE RAISINO FUNDANENTAL ISSUES SONE OF UNION HAD NOT BEEN ADDRESSED SINCE THE END OF THE NAN THESE ISSUES INCLUDED -- THE CONTINUED EFFICACY OE RENUNCIATION OF ANY HILITARI SOLE BEYOND TERRITORIAL SELF-DEFENSE IN A HORLD NOUINO TONARD COLLECTIUE SEOURITH AND THE ROLE OF THE NILITART IN JAPANESE -- DEFININC AND BUILDING PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR A JAPANESE CONTRIDUTIOH TO THE INTERNATIONAL OONHUNITT BEYOND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE -- FINDING A NEH EDDILIBRIUN IN U S -JAPAN RELATIONS TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN TNE ECONOMIC BALANCE ANEHICAN INDEPENDENT -- RESTRUCTURINC THE POLITICAL AND DUREAUCRATIC SYSTEU TO ALLOH JAPAN TO DO NONE THAN REACT TO EUENTS AND CONE UP NITH CONNOR RESPONSES BUT NOT OUITE READY FOR PRIDE TIME on 8 HOT SURPRISINCLY THE GULF NAN ENDED NITNOUT JAPAN REACHING A CONSENSUS ON ANY OF THESE BASIC ISSUES IN PART THIS FAILURE CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO PECULIAR DONESTIC POLITICAL CIRCUNSTANCES FOR I31 1 OF THE OPPOSITION THE CRISIS HONEUER BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE NONE FUNDAHENTAL OBSTACLES TO A NATURE JAPANESE FOREIGN POLICY -5 PACIFIST SEHTIHENT IN GENERAL AND OT THE JAPANESE NILITARY IN PARTICULAR RENAIN STRONG EUEN AHONG HAHN SO-CALLED THE LOP B1 AL NONC THE JAPANESE PUBLIC FOR THE NULTINATIONAL FORCES AND FOR SONE JAPANESE PHYSICAL PRESENCE THERE HAS ALSO STRONG REAFFIRHATION OF AND OF CONTINUED 1 I ROUTINE th IHEO XIUII EAPIBII I 14 31 31 n1 var TOTAL BOPIES ACTIOH 83- HO mro LOG-EH ans-as mm mass 1496311 133 1455272 mm 91 FH Iowa to was 5265 3514 an anmassv JAKARTA BEIJING menanssv mm 1 0mm ans aassv mum unmanssv SINGAPORE 350m AHEIIBASST BAHBERRA LOHBOII AHEHBASST none mas AHEHBASSY 3mm anussus HOSCOII USHATO ma newsman YOKOTA AB an Hoaoww - WEBTIOH as Of 31 mm 54532 EXDIS um PLEASE PASS Io cumszmu mm as nun 90mm CIHCPAO ALSO run POLAD 5 0 123553 TAES PEEL HAHR IA SUBJECT THE GULF HAD IHPACT OH JAFAH AHD OE JAPAH IH HILITART ACTIVITIES AEHOAD IHDEED A TEH DAYS AFTER THE EHD OF THE CONFLICT IH THE GULF THE TOP KOHEITO ADD RECOHEIRHED THEIR EARLIER UHDERSTAHDIHO THAT THE LEOISLATIOH TO BE SUBHITTED TO THE DIET THIS SPRIHG HOULD RULE OUT THE PAHTICIPATIOH OF ACTIUE-DUTT SELF DEFEHSE FORCE HEHHERS A LARGE CAP HAS HEDEALEU BETHEEH DESIRE FOR RECOGHITIOH AS A GREAT POHER AND ITS HILLIHCHESS AHD ABILITY TO ASSUHE THESE RISKS AHD RESPOHSIBILITIES HITHOUT OOHPELLIHE ESOHOHIC IHTERESTS AT STAKE IHUASIOH OF KUHAIT HAS HOT SEEN HERE AS PUTTIHO AT RISK ACCESS TO OIL NEITHER THE POLITICAL HOR THE BUREAUCRATIC COULD OUERCOHE THE IHERAIHED HABITS OF A HIDOLE-HAHKIHC POHEA SEEXIHB TO HIHIHIZE RISKS AHD HARE HO OPPORTUNITIES FOR DRAHATIC IHITIATIUES TEAL DISPATCH OF HOII-HILITART PERSOHHEL OUICK DISBUHSEHEHT OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT HERE LOST TO CAUTIOH IN THE BUREAUCRATIC POLITICAL AHO DUSIHESS COHHUHITIES CHISIS HAHAUEHEHT SYSTEH PROUED TOTALLT IHADEDUATE EHEREEHCT CABIHET HEETIHGS HERE HELD REGULARLY HITH HO REAL SIHPLY TO CIUE THE APPEARANCE OF ACTION CABIHET HEADERS AHD SENIOR BUSEAUORATS HERE KEPT TIED UP ALL DAT IH STERILE DIET SESSIOHS AND THEN THEIR OFFICES IH THE EUEHIHC TO REUIEH MATERIAL FOR HEXT SESSIONS m m m INCOMING TOKYO 33 OF ST 1455312 3505253 LEAUIHE LITTLE TIDE FOR POLICY DEUELOPHEHT HELEUAHT HOFA OFFICE DIRECTORS STATED IH THE BUILDING ROUHD THE IAIILE Bl REALITY THE HIHISTHT EHDED UP HELYIHG OH CHH LIKE THE B1 -- THE DIET DEBATE COHTRIBUTED OHLT HAHEIHALLY TO THE POLICT PROCESS THE OPPOSITIOH THIUIALIIED THE ISSUES BY FOCUSIHE OH FIHE-POIHTS OF LAHE AND THE STATED LAHOELT OH THE DEFEHSIUE SEEHIHC TO AUOID AHT HISSTATEHEHTS THAT COULD DISHUPT PROCEEDINGS THEREBT HISSIHG THE OPPORTUHITT TO USE THE DEBATE TO EDUCATE THE PUBLIC OH THE EUHDAHEHTAL IHTEHESTS AHD PRIHCIPLES AT STAKE HUOH OF THE RESPOHSIBITT BELOHES TO THE RIGID PAHLIAHEHTART PRACTICES BUILT UP OUER THE YEARS OF SIHDLE PARTY RULE AHD TO THE BUREAUCHATIC HEHTALITT HITH HHICH THE COS THE LOP AHD THE OPPOSITION HAUE THADITIOHALLY APPROACHED ISSUES LESSOHS LEARHED T IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAT HITH AHT DOHFIDEHCE HHAT HILL BE THE TEHH IHPACT IF AHY OT THE GULF CRISIS OH JAPAN BUT HE OFTEH THESE PRELIHIHARY COHCLUSIOHS OH THE LESSOHS JAPAH IS DHAHIHG FROH THE WLASSIFIED s_ I I a - 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3 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu