if SECRET y a It U S DEPARTMENT OF STATE 6 J- DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH Cl To The Secretary September 25 196k Through 3 3 From INR - Thomas L Hughes IzmI Subject Possible Early Chicom Nuclear Test As you are aware a special estimate of August 26 1961 stated that while the possibility of a Chinese nuclear test before the end of this year could not be ruled out it would probably not occur until after the end of the year There have been indications in the few weeks since this estimate was made that increase the possibility of an early test There is even one report that Chinese officials recently told a Mali official that Peiping would announce its bomb on this October 1 their national day Chen Yi whose references to a Chinese bomb have been more frequent than in the case of any other top official made rather pessimistic remarks on Peiping s nuclear prospects in October 1963 and rather more optimistic remarks in May of this year On the first occasion he spoke of the backwardness of China's industrial foundation and indicated it might be several years before a test This May he said that China had reached the necessary industrial level and that it is not very difficult to perform nuclear experiments Assuming a capability to detonate Peiping would have the following reasons- to do so forthwith 1 Testing could well raise morale at this critical moment among the Viet Cong in Hanoi and within Communist China by making the threat of US escalation in Indo-China seem less ominous Peiping might also think this would - GROUP 1 PIE 3 I DLCLASSI Excluded from automatic downgrading and Authority 1419 0511 2_ I SECRET declassification i MM wet y UvawcPl SECRET - 2 help to deter such escalation by arousing concern in Free world public opinion over the ultimate consequences of a broadened conflict 2 A test would make the CPR's fifteenth anniversary a truly memorable event There has been little to crow about in domestic or foreign affairs for a long time in fact since the 1959 celebrations of the Ten Great Years and the Great Leap Forward 3 A test would give the forthcoming National People's Congress probably Nbvember and a possibly forthcoming Party Congress now three years overdue some meat on which to chew It is evident that the regime continues to have a grave problem of infusing some sort of elan into its cadres yet a cautious realistic economic policy to which the collapse of the leap Forward seems to have held the regime can hardly provide much inspiration h The Moscow meeting of communist parties in December might be influenced in a sense favorable to Peiping If the Chinese adhere to their apparent intentions to boycott the meeting the Soviets might have even more trouble than is now foreseen in lining up a solid anti-Chinese front If the Chinese and their allies should attend they might be heard with greater respect 5 Mao s health may be failing the French Ambassador has reported indications of this though previous intelligence has rather suggested the contrary and he and his comrades may want to have this accomplishment in the books during the leader s lifetime 6 Peiping may see only a small margin in favor of the UB position on Chinese Representation in the Revember UNGA and may hope that a test might tip SECRET AIM Nu - SECRET -3- the balance against us A few wavering governments could possibly find in the Chinese entry to the nuclear club a persuasive argument against their continued exclusion from the UN Even if the Chinese are still short of an actual capabilitz to detonate the above reasons night persuade them to claim such a capability on October 1 DECLASSIHED Authority Mjlg l ya Nch Wyl DECLASSIFIED Tl Authority szLz I INR SPECIAL DISTRIBUTION US mist gliidcs the diStfibution of Intelligence Notes and advance distribution of Research Memoranda The produCing Of ce 1 MM 706' My you I will prepare two copies of this list and attach them to each IN or RM forwarded for the Director 5 signature AUTOMATIC 5Manning 1 1 - Crockett 2 RCI 3 AID Bell INR Producing Office Information Only No Objection to Transmitting to Congress OPTIONAL 1 - Rostow 1 NEA - Talbot - Lindley CU - Battle - Merchant - Johnson - DelanY 1 - Kitchen AF - Williams 1 I0 - Cleveland ARA - Mann 1 - Chayes ARA - Crimmins 1 - Jordon 1 EUR - Tyler ACDA - Foster 2 FE - Bundy PC - Shriver counT sw 7 NSC - Debevoise Check for distribution unless there is specific obiection Explain obiection below 2 USIA - Rowan I CIA - McCone I DIA - Carroll I JCS - Taylor I BOB - Amory FOR USE 78 NUMBER OR IN DATE AND TOPIC Possible Early Chicom Nuclear Test 9 25 64 NUMBER OF COPIES N g DATE OF DISTRIBUTION Of ce Director Dot For RMs this list governs advance distribution only additional copies will go to those agencies only if so indicated on standard RM distribution form - Mr Dean - Mr Forrestal Mr Corcoran - Mr Barbie Mr Trueheart - Mr Yager SA DECLASSIFIED Authority 7 2 I Al b This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu