CONFlDEARM IFIED Indonesia Timor Surprise U is RELEASED IN PART B1 1 4 B 1 4 D Jakarta's announcement that if may consider independencefor East Timor follows increasing international pressure and escalating violence on the ground- The intent may be to stimulate support for a special autonomy status but the statement is likely to fuel sentiment for a separate state C The information minister yesterday announced that if the East Timorese masses reject Jakarta's offer for widespread autonomy the government will suggest that the next People's Consultative Assembly to convene after the June 7 election consider allowing East Timor to separate from Indonesia Foreign Minister Alatas clarified that Jakarta would not accept any formula that called for an interim period of years before the East Timorese make a decision arguing such a delay would lead to civil conflict Jakarta also announced that imprisoned East Timorese leader Xanana Gusmao would be moved to a house designated a prison branch to get around a legal constraint on formal house arrest U who have advocated a transitional period before independence to opt for some special form of autonomy Ultimately leaders in Jakarta may have decided it is less risky to cut East Timor loose than to lose face through rejection in a referendum that could set an unacceptable model for other provinces C Escalating violence in East Timor The military's decision to arm pro- integration pro-Jakarta civil militias after two months of attacks on troops and pro-Indonesia civilians has fueled clashes-with antiintegration civilians and resistance guerrillas These newly established militia groups have little or no training and operate independently B1 frequently seeking to settle old scores 131 to S o tcta s in mid-January that he saw emerging a disturbing pattern of violence in which paramilitary groups armed by the military provoke conflict that leads to a military response Tension between the military and the local governor has paralyzed the local bureaucracy and is feeding fears of a vacuum of authority CINF Trumping the Timorese I The statement marks the first time Jakarta has publicly acknowledged that East Timor could be expendable East Timorese activists are expressing skepticism burare hailing the statement as evidence Jakarta knows it has lost Increasing international pressure including Canberra's recent decision to alter its stance to support an act of self-determination no doubt helped tip the balance in favor of those in Jakarta who hope to get rid of the Timor albatross Some may calculate that the threat of abruptly cutting ties including vital social services will estimates that at least 50 people have been killed over the past six months though critics say the number is much higher An estimated 1 000 people fled in mid-January to the provincial capital in Dili to escape clashes and feared reprisals seriously straining relief resources In the latest round of violence which began on January 24 in the southern town of Suai at least four people have died and more than 2 000 have reportedly fled C CONFiDENTIAUNOFORN prompt more moderate leaders like Xanana UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATECONFIDE N I JAUNOFORN REVIEW AUTHORITY MURRAY D ZINOMAN DATE CASE ID 31 MAR 2006 200300722 UNCLASSIFIED January 28 1999 B1 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu