UNCLASSIFIED 11 O RELEASED IN B1 1 4 13 1 4 1 136 CONFIDENTIAL Printed By Robert J Clarke ACTION EAP-01 INFO LOG-00 001W TEDE-00 ADS-00 ONY-00 ------------------9EG16A SAS-00 SS-00 SSO-00 081411Z 38 O 031033Z FEB 99 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5878 C 0 N F I'D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000544 OFFICIAL INFORMAL - FOR EAP PIMBS D HARTWICK FROM DCM M DELL 02 03 09 E O 12958 OGEN TAGS OFFICIAL INFORMAL JAKARTA TO PIMBS NO SUBJECT JAKARTA 01 OF 02 20 544 1 CLASSIFIED BY MICHAEL-P OWENS 1 5 ' D _ REASON 2 OWENS DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION C UN PRESENCE IN EAST TIMOR HE SAYS THAT IN FACT HIS HOME OFFICE HAS BEEN GIVING THOUGHT TO EAST TIMOR RECENTLY IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT UNHCR INVOLVEMENT MAY BE TRIGGERED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE BY AN OUTFLOW OF REFUGEES I E FROM THE MOREOVER UNHCR STATE OF EAST TIMOR TO THE STATE OF INDONESIA DOES GIVE CONSIDERATION TO DISPLACED PERSONS WITHIN STATES AND UNHCR IS AWARE OF RELIABLE REPORTS OF SOME THOUSANDS OF DISPLACED SEPARATELY WE HAVE EST IN EAST TIMOR AS A RESULT OF RXCENT WHO SHARES OUR CONCERN ALSO TALKED WITH THAT FURTHER DETERIORATION OF THE SECURITY1 CONDITION AS WELL AS FOOD WATER AND MEDICAL NEEDS COULD WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF AN INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEEK-LONG CLOSING OF THE DILI CIVILIAN HOSPITAL SINCE JANUARY 27 ELIEVES THE CLOSING WAS FOR THIS MATTER DID NOT POLITICAL AS WELL AS SECURITY REASONS ARISE IN POL'S DISCUSSION FEBRUARY 2 WITH OUR INTERLOCUTORS AND WE BELIEVE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL UN AND OTHER PRESENCE COULD HAVE A MOREOVER IN THE EVENT THAT THERE IS CALMING REASSURING EFFECT A TRANSITION IN EAST TIMOR'S POLITICAL STATUS THERE WOULD BE ADVANTAGE IN LAYING SOME OF THE GROUNDWORK FOR THE INEVITABLE NEW HUMANITARIAN AND OTHER ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS WHICH WILL FOLLOW 3 C Bl Bl B6 BI B1 B6 B1 INFORMAL INTERAGENCY ON EAST TIMOR WE WOULD SUGGEST DISCUSSION OF THE FOLLOWING ISSUES -WE ARE GETTING CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON HOW THE EAST TIMORESE WILL BE CONSULTED REGARDING THEIR ACCEPTANCE REJECTION OF THE AUTONOMY OFFER DEPLU SEEMS TO BE INDICATING THAT JUNE ELECTIONS FOR THE LOCAL ASSEMBLY IN EAST TIMOR COULD BE SEEN AS A SORT OF SELF-DETERMINATION EXERCISE ALATAS STILL SEEMS DEAD SET AGAINST OBVIOUSLY FOR THIS TO HAVE ANY VALIDITY XANANA A REFERENDUM AND THE VARIOUS EAST TIMORESE PARTIES WOULD HAVE TO PARTICIPATE IN A FREE AND FAIR PROCESS A BIG ORDER GIVEN THE SHORT TIME FRAME WE NEED TO PUSH THE GOI TO ESTABLISH AS SOON AS POSSIBLE A CLEAR PROCESS WHICH CAN BE APPROVED BY ALL THE MAJOR IF THE UN PROCESS IS TO REMAIN RELEVANT THE REAL EAST PLAYERS TIMORESE LEADERS WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT IN MORE DIRECTLY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY THE REALITY MAY SIMPLY BE CONFIDENTIAL 1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY MURRAY D ZINOMAN CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON 1 4 B 1 4 D DECLASSIFY AFTER 2 FEB 2024 DATE CASE ID 09 MAR 2007 200503302 UNCLASSIFIED I I UNCLASSIFIED 0 CONFIDENTIAL Printed By Robert J Clarke THAT NEITHER JAKARTA NOR THE EAST TIMORESE ARE PREPARED TO MAKE THE KIND OF COMPROMISES THAT WOULD GIVE AUTONOMY A CHANCE MINDSETS IN DILI AND JAKARTA ARE HARDENING FAST BELIEVE INDEPENDENCE IS A DONE DEAL MANY OBSERVERS -- THE SECURITY SITUATION ON THE GROUND IN EAST TIMOR IS MURKY BUT MOST AGREE INCLUDING DEPLU IT APPEARS EMARKS BEFORE THE HABIBIE MEETING TODAY THAT ABRI'S ARMING OF CIVILIANS IS A MAJOR PROBLEM AS YET WE HAVE NO REACTIONS FROM OUR DEMARCHES ON THIS ISSUE ALTHOUGH WIRANTO'S DENIAL THAT ARMING OF RATIH ELEMENTS IS TAKING PLACE AT LEAST SHOWS THAT HE IS NOW AWARE OF THE CONCERN OVER THIS ISSUE IT MAY ULTIMATELY BE HARDER TO CONVINCE ABRI TO STOP ARMING AND START DISARMING NOW THAT WIRANTO HAS TAKEN SO DISINGENUOUS A POSITION XANANA HAS PROPOSED A CEASEFIRE ON THE PART OF THE GUERRILLAS ALONG WITH A MORATORIUM ON PRO-REFERENDUM DEMONSTRATIONS IN EXCHANGE FOR DISARMING THE CIVILIAN MILITIAS THIS WOULD GIVE ABRI SOME FACE -- THE RECENT CONFLICTS HAVE CREATED A POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN CRISIS BASED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF THE ICRC THE PRESENCE OF UNHCR AND OR OTHER INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES COULD PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE IN REDUCING ABUSES WE MAY NEED TO BEGIN THINKING ABOUT THE SHAPE OF AND PARTICIPANTS-IN AN INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION QUIET CONSULTATIONS AND PLANNING SEEM TO BE IN ORDER AT THIS STAGE GOT REACTION IS HARD TO ANTICIPATE WHILE RESIDUAL RESISTANCE TO INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN EAST TIMOR MAY BE A FACTOR THE DESIRE TO END THE FINANCIAL OUTLAYS AND DESIRE TO BE SEEN TO BE DOING THE RIGHT THING MIGHT OVERRIDE THIS 4 U FREE FAIR AND CREDIBLE ELECTIONS ---------------------------------------WE THINK THAT YOU HAVE MADE A VERY GOOD BEGINNING ON THE DIFFICULT QUESTION OF WHAT CONSTITUTES A FREE FAIR AND CREDIBLE ELECTION AT THIS EARLY STAGE WE STILL HAVE NOT HAD A CHANCE TO COME UP WITH WHAT WE WOULD REGARD AS A COMPLETE ANSWER BUT HERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS THAT MOST INDONESIANS WILL REGARD AS KEY SOME OF WHICH ELABORATE UPON WHAT YOU HAVE ALREADY LISTED PRE-ELECTION -- DOES ABRI REFRAIN FROM INTERFERING IN THE ELECTION MOBILIZING VOTERS FOR A PARTICULAR PARTY Missing section ' E G 2 f rwww w w x CONFIDENTIAL 2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL Printed By Robert J Clarke GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO HOLD EITHER NATIONAL OR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS IN EAST TIMOR IS PROBLEMATIC THERE ARE OTHER IMPORTANT PROBLEMS E G HOW TO PROVIDE FOR PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES TO FORM CAMPAIGN AND PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS THE INDONESIANS RECOGNIZE THE PROBLEM BUT THEIR THINKING HAS NOT YET JELLED ON THE RIGHT SOLUTION ' -- PRESIDENT HABIBIE OUTLINED FOR A S ROTH A TIME TABLE PROVIDING FOR SEPARATION OF EAST TIMOR FROM INDONESIA ON JANUARY I 2000 IF AUTONOMY IS REJECTEDFOREIGN MINISTER ALATAS TOLD A S ROTH THAT HE HAD CAUTIONED THE PRESIDENT THAT SUCH A COMPRESSED TIME TABLE WAS UNREALISTIC ALATAS RECOGNIZES THAT A TRANSITION PROCESS IS NEEDED BUT CLEARLY THERE IS STILL NO INTERNAL INDONESIAN CONSENSUS ON THIS MATTER -- UN ROLE THE INDONESIANS HAVE OPENLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE UNITED NATIONS MUST PLAY A ROLE IN ANY TRANSITION TO INDEPENDENCE FOR EAST TIMOR INCLUDING BY HAVING A PRESENCE ON THE GROUND E G PRESS REPORTS QUOTE ALATAS AS SAYING THAT THE UN SHOULD MAKE SURE THAT PRO-INDONESIAN EAST TIMORESE ARE NOT ATTACKED IF THE TERRITORY SECEDES THEY HAVE NOT AS YET DISPLAYED ANY WILLINGNESS TO AGREE TO INTRODUCING A UN PRESENCE INTO EAST TIMOR TO HELP STABILIZE THE SITUATION THERE NOW WHICH THEY REJECT AS INCOMPATIBLE WITH THEIR POSITION THAT EAST TIMOR IS STILL PART OF INDONESIA THEY MAY DISPLAY MORE FLEXIBILITY ON THIS QUESTION OVER TIME BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEY ARE STILL ADHERING TO THE POSITION THAT A UN PRESENCE CAN ONLY BE INTRODUCED AFTER AUTONOMY IS REJECTED 7 C THESE ARE VITAL ISSUES THE LACK OF CLARITY ON HOW TO APPROACH THEM ILLUSTRATES BOTH THE SUDDENNESS OF THE SHIFT IN INDONESIAN THINKING ON EAST TIMOR AND THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM 8 C STABILIZING THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND THE RECENT ABRI ARMING OF UNDISCIPLINED PRO-JAKARTA CIVILIAN ELEMENTS IN EAST TIMOR HAS WORSENED AN ALREADY BAD SECURITY SITUATION THERE AND ALARMED MODERATE LEADERS SUCH AS HE FAVORED FORMATION OF A COUNCIL REPRESENTING ALL SHADES OF OPINION AIMED AT REACHING AGREEMENT TO HALT FIGHTING DISARM CONTENDING FACTIONS AND FACILITATE PEACEFUL DISCUSSION U IS THINKING ALONG SIMILAR LINES BY CALLING FOR EVERYBODY TO SIT AND TALK RATHER THAN TAKING UP ARMS B1 B6 B1 B1 B6 B1 CLEARLY A TOP PRIORITY MUST BE TO FIND A MECHANISM TO CALM THE SITUATION IN EAST TIMOR AND GET THE AR14S AWAY FROM IRRESPONSIBLE ELEMENTS OTHERWISE POSSIBILITIES FOR PEACEFUL TRANSITION TO EITHER AUTONOMY OR SEPARATION WILL BE DEGRADED OR DESTROYED 9 C NEED FOR A CREDIBLE PROCESS ALONG WITH MANY OTHERS BELIEVES THAT NOW THAT 1 B1 INDEPENDENCE HAS BEEN HELD OUT AS AN OPTION AUTONOMY WILL NOT BE GIVEN SERIOUS CONSIDERATION AS AN OPTION THIS DOES NOT ALTER THE NEED FOR A CREDIBLE PROCESS OF DETERMINING THE PREFERENCES OF THE PEOPLE OF EAST TIMOR CONFIDENTIAL 3 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL Printed By Robert J Clarke THUS FAR EARLY INDONESIAN REACTIONS TO THE GOVERNMENT'S SHIFT IN POLICY HAVE BEEN BROADLY SUPPORTIVE AN EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE PDI-P THE INDONESIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY - PERJUANGAN WHICH IS B1 GIVEN STRONG CHANCES OF MAKING A GOOD SHOWING IN THE JAKARTA 03 OF 03 598 ELECTIONS 10 C MEGAWATI'S POSITION HAS BEEN THAT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT LACKS SUFFICIENT LEGITIMACY TO MAKE SUCH A FAR-REACHING POLICY SHIFT INVOLVING INDONESIA'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY Bl 11 C GENERAL WIRANTO HAS STATED F PUBLICLYr---1 B1 THAT THE MILITARY WILL DUTIFULLY SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION BUT MANY SUSPECT THE MILITARY'S SUPPORT IS LUKEWARM AT BEST GIVEN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHIFT IN INDONESIAN ATTITUDES CANNOT BE-EXCLUDED ESPECIALLY IF THE PROCESS OF DETERMINING EAST TIMORESE ATTITUDES IS PERFUNCTORY FOR THAT REASON IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT THE PROCESS HAVE INTEGRITY AND CREDIBILITY THIS REQUIRES THAT THERE BE A MEANINGFUL AUTONOMY OPTION ON THE TABLE ' 12 C THE SENSITIVITY OF THIS ISSUE CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED BOTH ACEHNESE AND IRIANESE HAVE ACKNOWLEDGED TO US THAT INDEPENDENCE HOPES IN THOSE AREAS HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEVELOPMENTS RELATING TO EAST TIMOR A BROAD AUTONOMY OPTION FOR EAST TIMOR COULD ALSO BECOME THE STARTING POINT FOR AUTONOMY DEMANDS BY OTHER PARTS OF INDONESIA IF'THE INDONESIANS FALTER IN THEIR EFFORTS TO HANDLE EAST TIMOR SEPARATELY FROM THE -LARGER ISSUES INVOLVING THE INTEGRITY OF INDONESIA ITSELF A COMPLEX SITUATION WILL BE RENDERED EVEN MORE DIFFICULT 13 C INDONESIA AND PORTUGAL CLEARLY ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF RETHINKING THEIR APPROACHES IN THE WAKE OF THE SUDDEN GOI POLICY SHIFT FOR THAT REASON A CRITICAL GOAL OF THE MEETINGS BETWEEN ALATAS AND HIS PORTUGUESE COUNTERPART IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE TO SMOOTH THE PROCESS OF READJUSTING THINKING ON BOTH SIDES SO THAT THE FOCUS CAN BE ON THE NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND NOT ON THE OLD DIFFERENCES THERE IS NOW LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL BUT THERE ARE NUMEROUS PITFALLS ALONG THE WAY ROY CONFIDENTIAL 4 UNCLASSIFIED Bl This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu
OCR of the Document
View the Document >>