Current Class UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL Page 1 Current Handling n a Document Number Channel n a 1999JAKART03939 RELEASED IN PART B l 1 4 13 1 4 D CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EAP-01 JAKART 03939 01 OF 02 I PTQ9570 131125Z SMEC-00 CIAE-00 ACQ-00 AID-00 NP-01 DS-00 SRPP-00 WHA-01 DOSE-00 DODE-00 H-01 HHS-01 FBIE-00 OIGO-01 EUR-01 ADS-00 L-01 LAB-01 I0-00 INR-00 PA-00 OPIC-01 OMB-01 OIC-02 NSCE-00 STR-00 SP-00 SCT-00 P-00 ACE-00 DRL-02 PRM-01 DSCC-00 PMB-00 ASDS-01 021W SWCI-00 SAS-00 NFAT-00 131125Z 22 ------------------EC17F3 P 13110OZ AUG 99 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9309 INFO ASEAN COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY LISBON AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON USMISSION GENEVA USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI FPA CG III MEF INFO LOG-00 DINT-00 ED-01 TEDE-00 NSAE-00 PRS-00 USIE-00 MR-00 INL-01 EB-00 SSA-01 AC-01 PM-00 TRSE-00 G-00 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003939 ROME FOR VATICAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 JAKART 03939 01 OF 02 131125Z E O 12958 DECL 08 13 04 TAGS PREL PGOV PHUM PINR KCRM SOLI MOPS SUBJECT EAST TIMOR OBSERVATIONS FROM DILI U 1 1 5 D 0 2 C UN ID CLASSIFIED BY ACTING POLCOUNS GREGORY FERGIN REASON IN AN AUGUST 9-12 VISIT TO EAST TIMOR POLOFF FOUND 1 Current-Class CONFIDENTIAL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES E LAHIGUERA CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON 1 4 Dy DECLASSIFY AFTER 12 AUG 2024 DATE CASE ID 16 JUL 2004 200300722 UNCLASSIFIED Page 1 Current Class Current Handling Document Number CONFIDENTIAL n a 1999JAKART03939 UNCLASSIFIED Page 2 Channel n a LOR AN AUGUST 30 VOTE THEY ACKNOWLEDGED HOWEVER THA NO O E WANTS TO SEE DETAILED EVIDENCE COMPILED BY UNAMET PERSONNEL FURTHER DELAYS CARTER CENTER OBSERVERS AND EAST TIMORESE NGO'S MADE VERY CLEAR THAT MILITIAS CONTINUE TO OPERATE UNFETTERED WITH TNI PERSONNEL PLAYING INTEGRAL ROLES IN THEIR ACTIVITIES WHILE THE RECENTLY AUGMENTED INDONESIAN POLICE FORCES REMAIN LARGELY INEFFECTIVE ACCORDING TO THESE OBSERVERS IN DILI AND ELSEWHERE THE OVERALL SECURITY SITUATION ACTUALLY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LATE JULY RANDOM SAMPLING OF ORDINARY CITIZENS' VIEWS IN DILI REVEAL INCREASINGLY VOCIFEROUS SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE AND EQUATIONS OF INDONESIAN RULE WITH LAWLESSNESS MOST OBSERVERS BELIEVED THAT THE INDEPENDENCE SIDE EASILY WOULD PREVAIL EVEN IN A VOTE HELD UNDER PRESENT CONDITIONS A SUDDEN OFFER BY MILITIA LEADERS TO DISARM IS SEEN AS JAKARTA'S ATTEMPT TO FEND OFF GROWING PRESSURE RESULTING FROM FORMER PRESIDENT CARTER'S CRITICISM THE TRIPARTITE MEETINGS IN JAKARTA AND FALINTIL'S RECENT CHANGES IN LOCAL UNILATERAL CANTONMENT OF FORCES MILITARY LEADERSHIP IN EAST TIMOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT END SUMMARY B1 CONFIDENTIAL JAKART PAGE 03 UNAMET SKEPTICS C 03939 01 OF 02 131125Z UNAMET B1 DESPITE THE GREAT SUCCESS OF THE REGISTRATION TRESSED THAT THERE WERE THREE AREAS OF CONTINUING CONCERN -- PRO-INTEGRATION MILITIA ARE STILL INTIMIDATING THE POPULATION AND OPERATING AT WILL THERE HAS BEEN NO EFFORT TO REIN THEM IN 1-SAID THE KILLING OF TWO STUDENTS BY MILITIA IN VIQUEQUE ON AUGUST 11 WHILE SHOCKING WAS NOT SURPRISING HE STILL SAID THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT WAS FAR TOO DANGEROUS FOR THE PRO-INDEPENDENCE SIDE TO OPERATE B1 -- THE RESPONSES OF THE INDONESIAN POLICE TO INCIDENTS SUCH AS THAT IN VIQUEQUE REMAIN FEEBLE AND INADEQUATE POLICE ARE UNABLE OR UNWILLING TO ARREST ANY MILITIA MEMBERS OR EVEN TO OBSTRUCT THEIR ACTIVITIES THE POLICE AUTHORITIES CONTINUED TO VIEW THE MILITIAS AS THEIR PARTNERS NOT AS LAW BREAKERS Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page UNCLASSIFIED 2 Current Class UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL Page 3 Current Handling n a Document Number Channel n a 1999JAKART03939 -- THERE IS OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE THAT TNI CONTINUES TO DIRECT AND PARTICIPATE IN MILITIA OPERATIONS REMARKED THAT IN CONTACTS WITH UNAMET LESS SOPHISTIC JERSONNEL BELOW THE DISTRICT COMMANDER LEVEL FREELY ADMIT THEIR ROLE IN THE MILITIAS ADDED THAT UNAMET HAD SEEN NUMEROUS DOCUMENTS CO-SIGNED BY LOCAL MILITARY AND MILITIA COMMANDERS CARTER CENTER OBSERVERS ALSO HAVE COMPILED EXTENSIVE EVIDENCE OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 JAKART 03939 CONTINUING TNI-MILITIA LINKS 01 OF 02 B1 B1 131125Z MILITIA ACTIVITY PICKING UP AGAIN --------------------------------4 C AND OTHER OBSERVERS ARGUED THAT THE OVERALL SECURITY SITUATION ACTUALLY HAD DETERIORATED SINCE LATE JULY ESPECIALLY IN COVALIMA BOBONARO AND LIQUICA DISTRICTS B1 B1 CONFIRMED THAT INTIMIDATION HOUSE BURNINGS AND ROADBLOCKS RECENTLY HAD INCREASED AGAIN WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS AND MILITIAS PRESSING PEOPLE TO PARTICIPATE IN PRO-INTEGRATION CAMPAIGN ACTIVITIES IN DILI ITSELF THE AITARAK MILITIA HAD BECOME MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND CONTACTS IN THE COMORO AREA REPORTED POLOFF OBSERVED A LARGE NOISY HEARING FREQUENT GUNFIRE AITARAK GATHERING IN CENTRAL DILI ON AUGUST 10 AS NERVOUS LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOPKEEPERS AND MOTORISTS STAYED WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA EARLIER ON AUGUST 10 WHILE TRAVELING ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT POLOFF ENCOUNTERED A DILI RESIDENT WHO HAD JUST BEEN ROBBED BY AN ARMED AITARAK MEMBER BUT NO ONE WANTS ANOTHER DELAY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EAP-01 JAKART INFO NP-01 DODE-00 EUR-01 INR-00 NSCE-00 ACE-00 LOG-00 DINT-00 ED-01 TEDE-00 NSAE-00 PRS-00 Current Class 03939 02 OF 02 AID-00 DOEE-00 OIGO-01 I0-00 OIC-02 P-00 ACQ-00 WHA-01 FBIE-00 LAB-01 OMB-01 SCT-00 PTQ9576 131126Z CIAE-00 SRPP-00 HHS-01 L-01 OPIC-01 SP-00 CONFIDENTIAL SMEC-00 DS-00 H-01 ADS-00 PA-00 STR-00 INL-01 EB-00 SSA-01 AC-01 PM-00 TRSE-00 Page UNCLASSIFIED 3 Current Class Current Handling Document Number CONFIDENTIAL n a 1999JAKART03939 UNCLASSIFIED Page 4 Channel n a USIE-00 MR-00_ ASDS-01 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 021W ------------------EC1810 131126Z 22 P 13110OZ AUG 99 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9310 INFO ASEAN COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY LISBON AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY WELLIQTON USMISSION GENEVA USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI FPA CG III MEF G-00 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 JAKARTA 003939 ROME FOR VATICAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 JAKART 03939 02 OF 02 131126Z E O 12958 DELL 08 13 04 TAGS PREL PGOV PHUM PINR KCRM SOCI MOPS SUBJECT EAST TIMOR OBSERVATIONS FROM DILI UN ZD r C WHILE STRESSING THAT THE SECURITY SITUATION WAS NOT YET 5 CONDUCIVE FOR A FREE AND FAIR VOTE ON AUGUST 30 AID UNAMET WAS FACING A DILEMMA BECAUSE THE ONLY WEAPON IT HAD TO PRESS JAKARTA TO FULFILL ITS COMMITMENTS WAS THE THREAT TO DELAY THE CONSULTATION AND NO ONE INCLUDING UNAMET WANTED ANOTHER POSTPONEMENT FOR UNAMET AND THE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS AS WELL AS LOCAL PRO-INDEPENDENCE ACTIVISTS THE WILLINGNESS TO GO AHEAD WITH A VOTE UNDER ADVERSE SECURITY CONDITIONS SEEMS AT LEAST PARTIALLY BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT EVEN WITH THE CURRENT LEVELS OF INTIMIDATION THE PRO-INDEPENDENCE VOTE IS LIKELY TO BE A CONVINCING 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER ORDINARY DILI RESIDENTS RANDOMLY ENCOUNTERED BY POLOFF WERE WITHOUT EXCEPTION VOCIFEROUS IN THEIR SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE MORE SO THAN IN PREVIOUS VISITS SEVERAL COMPLAINED ABOUT MILITIA INTIMIDATION AND EQUATED INDONESIAN RULE WITH A CLIMATE OF LAWLESSNESS B1 A SUDDEN OFFER TO DISARM Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page UNCLASSIFIED 4 Current Class CONFIDENTIAL 1V CLASSIFIED Current Handling n a Document Number 1999JAKART03939 Page 5 Channel n a 6 C ACCORDING TO UNAMET OFFICIALS MILITIA LEADERS JOAO TAVERES EURICO GUTERRES AND JOANICO CESARIO SUDDENLY APPEARED AT THE DILI OFFICE THE COMMISSION FOR PEACE AND STABILITY KPS LATE IN THE EVENING ON AUGUST 11 AND EXPRESSED AN URGENT DESIRE TO SIGN A DISARMAMENT ACCORD WITH FALINTIL THE MILITIA LEADERS REPEATEDLY MAINTAINED THAT THEY WERE ACTING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 JAKART 03939 02 OF 02 131126Z INDEPENDENTLY OF TNI CNRT REPRESENTATIVE MAHUDU WAS SUMMONED TO THE MEETING AND HE AGREED TO SUBMIT THE DISARMAMENT PROPOSAL TO XANANA GUSMAO AND FALINTIL COMMANDER MATAN RUAK UNAMET OFFICIALS SUSPECTED THAT THE OFFER WAS ANOTHER TNI-DIRECTED PUBLIC RELATIONS GAMBIT AND AN ATTEMPT TO DEFUSE GROWING PRESSURE GENERATED BY THE TRIPARTITE MEETINGS IN JAKARTA THE STRONG STATEMENT FROM FORMER PRESIDENT CARTER AND FALINTIL'S UNILATERAL CANTONMENT OF ITS FORCES DESPITE THIS UNAMET WILL FOLLOW UP ON THE PROPOSAL IT WAS EXPECTED THAT FALINTIL WOULD RESPOND WITH A COUNTER PROPOSAL THAT THE MILITIAS FIRST MOVE THEIR PERSONNEL INTO CANTONMENT AREAS GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE MILITIA GROUPS UNAMET DID NOT CONSIDER THIS TO BE A SERIOUS POSSIBILITY a SHAKEUP IN LOCAL TNI COMMAND ---------------------------7 C LOCAL COMMANDER COL TONO SURATMAN WAS REPLACED ON AUGUST 12 BY COL MOHAMED NOER MUIS TONG'S DEPARTURE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED BUT WAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE CONSULTATION VOTE IN ANY CASE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOCAL COMMANDER IN DILI HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF GENERALS ZACKY ANWAR AND GLENNY KAIRUPAN WIDELY SEEN AS EXERCISING THE REAL POWER IN ADDITION TO TONO DISTRICT COMMANDERS IN DILI MANATUTO AND AINARO WERE RECENTLY REPLACED BUT LOCAL OBSERVERS EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT THAT SOME OF THE MORE PROBLEMATIC DISTRICT COMMANDERS REMAINED IN PLACE ROY CONFIDENTIAL END OF DOCUMENT Current Class CONFIDENTIAL Page UNCLASSIFIED 5 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu