MORI DocID b 1 b 3 u _ _ c C C- LH J L 1- 3 7F io'LL rr B - t 'iriiin Wednesday 15 September 1999 National Security Wormation Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions Reproduction of this Document Prohibited Reod r July is limited to those on approved reader list on file with CIA SEIB Control O tken The mrdersigned hereby aclazowledge reading this document it 49-zZgC C APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE APR 2004 J To S -- PASS MiB 99-214CX 15 September 1999 111111th fill 1 1078772 MORI DocID 1078772 Top Se Table of Contents Leading Developments n onesia Poor ecun a aymg a venes to East Timor Analytic Perspective Indonesia Impact of East Timor's Volatile Ethnic Mix 1 2 3' Analytic Perspective Regional Notes 5 7 9 9 10 12 99 5 September 1999 MORI DocID Indonesia Analytic Perspective 1078772 Poor Security Delaying Aid Deliveries to East Timor The UN High Commissioner for Refugees is reared to enter East Timor quickly with relief supplies ut not until security conditions RupwYo orced nongovernmental organizations NGOs and all but a skeleton group of UNAMET to evacuate and militias continue to threaten UN and relief personnel - Even if the UN and other relief workers this week gain access to some 100 000 people affected in Dili Indonesian military or the militias may try to deny or limit foreign access to the 200 000 needy in the mountains between Dili and SuaL Aid waiting to stabilize the humanitarian condition in East Timor includes a ship in coastal waters ready to offload 1 400 tons of rice in Dili and a UN World Food Program shipment of another 5 040 tons of rice in transit to Dili Over the pastfew years the UN and NGOs have provided food aid to children under age five and expectant and lactating women in East Timor Hundreds of people have been killed and as many as 300 000 have been displaced of whom 200 000 are in immediate need of assistance according to UNAMET and press reports Prointegration militias strongest in the mountainous area south and southwest of Dili are still forcing proindependence East Timorese out of their villages exacerbating the lean season when usual food supplies are low and people sustain themselves by eating roots tubers and coconuts - The lower level of violence on the eastern end of the island has resulted in less displacement and less destitution among its 300 000 residents Even if international peacekeepers deploy to East Timor insecurity will continue to affect foreign relief operations in western Timor Jakarta is helping meet the humanitarian food and shelter needs of many of the 100 000 displaced in western Timor and has announced plans to deliver 1 500 tons of rice Most of the displaced from East Timor who were shipped or flown to Kupang and to other islands-some 40 000-are against independence according to press reports and relief workers - Food and water are available for the 56 000 displaced in Atambua according to US AID officials but Red Cross workers are concerned about militia harassment ofppLmdependence supporters m the camps 2 Top S I J Wcmber 1999 MORI DocID Indonesia Analytic Perspective 1078772 Impact of East Timor's Volatile Ethnic Mix East Timor's patchwork of mutually hostile ethnic groups makes it unlikely the UN presence can quickly end local conflicts UN personnel will find a populace scarred by displacement and by heavy loss of life from attempts to gain independence that began in 1910 with a rebellion against the Portuguese - Known and suspected pro-Jakarta sympathizers will be the targets of revenge seekers Before the colonial era East Timor was divided into many small kingdoms whose clan-based hamlets were led by hereditary rulers Two ethnic groups predominate-the Atoni in the mountainous center of the island and West Timor-and the Belo whose scattered subgroups share the lingua franca of Tetum None of the political structure that existed before the Indonesian invasion in 1975 is intact and the Indonesian administrative structure is discredited in Timorese eyes UN personnel may be faced with an administrative vacuum along with jockeying for power among remaining urban elites including mired-race families and descendants of Portuguese nationals deported to the island who remain influential Indonesian Migrants Fuel Fire East Timorese harbor a profound resentment of Indonesia's governmentsponsored and spontaneous migration that substantially increased the island's population and changed its ethnic composition According to academic studies by 1996 as-many as 20 percent of the population was non-Timorese - Ethnic clashes erupted in the past three years as Timorese accused Jakarta of deliberately using migrants to overwhelm them and take over the economy I The number of Indonesian migrants who have fled is not known but those who remain will continue to be a point of contention East Timorese including vocal overseas groups may demand that the UN establish border controls or undertake more extreme measures such as population transfers to remove Indonesian migrants 3 TmxSecmr 13 September 1999 MORI DocID 1078772 Top-Seerd Los Palo Mau6n _ o - _ s o ' Atambuaq1 asi __ -- 4i tie _ tea Timor Timur Mast Timor sual Kefamenaou r Kupang r- P3nam Te1sroeara Tomur - st Lgsssr Suneras Atoni Western Tumor east-west border 650 000 Much dialect variation Bunak Central interior 50 000 One of the main languages Fataluku Northeast around Los Palos 30 000 Northeastern end of Timor around Los Palos Galoli North coast 50 000 One of the main languages Kemak North central 50 000 Closely related to Tetum Makassi West of Fataluku group 70 000 Several subdialects Mambai Mountains of central Timor 80 000 Central Tumor corridor from northern to southern coast 300 000 to 600 000 Lingua franca of Timor except in Lautem and along border North coast of Maubara 50 000 One of the main Tetum includes Belu Tukudede Second most widely spoken language 9 languages and Liquisa Proindependence groups since the 1970s have pursued a Pan East Timorese identity called Maubere Once a common personal name found among the Mambai a highland ethnic group it originated as a derogatory reference to a stereotypically illiterate hill people who nevertheless are regazded as the guazdians of tradidonal Timid orese wsom 751113AI9 99 Tn l6 See' 15 September 1999 MORI DocID 1078772 Top Catholicism as Pillar and Target The Catholic Church is a pillar in the social structure of East Timor because of its role as sanctuary and symbol of a non-Indonesian cultural identity As a result pro-Jakarta militias will target Church personnel and property despite a UN presence To 4 15 September 1999 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu