MORI DocID b 1 b 3 J-L Q -21 A UA 1 Q O ez-- On-I Cc G Friday 17 September 1999 National Security Information Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions Reproduction of this Document Prohibited %C uJc drip i3 limited to those on approved reader Us on file with CIA SEIB Cuntiol 0Jj7ce The undersigned hereky aclawrrledge reading this docunient APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE APR 2004 cQ ss - aeoffr-ef PASS SEIB 99216CX 17 September 1999 - 1 1fI1l 1ififi 111111111111 lull 1111111 IF 1111 ail ill 1078761 MORI DocID To 1078761 ergr Table of Contents Leading Developments Indonesia Army on Both Sides of Fence in East Timor Indonesia Activists Will Keep Political Pot Boiling Analytic Perspective 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 12 14 a I 17 September 1999 k MORI DocID 1078761 x Looming Border Problems The Indonesian military will retain links to prointegration militias despite reports that growing numbers of militia elements are retreatin to West Timor where they can regroup rearm and recruit a Indonesian military representative to the militias has heJ open-enaea ns wi nu i a ea ers about future military action leaving them to believe support from the armed forces will continue indefinitely - Militia cross-border activitylaunched from staging bases in rural frontier areas of West Timor-is a strong possibility - The Indonesian armed forces will maintain a substantial presence in West Timor--close enough to continue covert support to prointegration forces if they so choose TSaScercC ' 17 September 1999 MORI DocID 1078761 Leading Developments Indonesia Army on Both Sides of Fence in East Timor fthe military 1s t-3mantImg 1 command structure m as Iuno-his preparing to return the five battalions serving rotational duties in the province to their parent commands Remnants of the two local East Timorese battalions already have withdrawn - - -the moves leave only core headquarters elements Nirategic Reserve units police mobile brigade forces and engineering and support units The military intends to base its command structure around Strategic Reserve forces to be stationed in Dili and Baucau but the size and mission of this contingent is unclear -All remainingforces could be withdrawn rapidly when the battalions have left donesian troops are trying to establish order ano improve con 1 ons in the province before the arrival of the International Force for East Timor RFET -a task made easier by a growing exodus ofprointegration militias to West Timor Martial Law Commander Syahnakrie has ordered troops to repair buildings and to distribute rice and has shown cooperation with Red Cross officials - The status of Army Special Forces units which were responsible for organizing equipping and training the prointegration militias is unknown their continuedpresence and covert activity couldpose a major threat to INTERFETforces pr5oc eel 1 17 September 1999 MORI DocID 1078761 Tam Chine C 500lM1q PhMpplne Sea North Pacific Ocean Ma C3Amb9n q JAKARTA JAVA Indian Ocean Australia Teg-Sesipet17 September 1999 rlan Jaya Pap N Gul MORI DocID Indonesia 1078761 Activists Will Keep Political Pot Bo ' Analytic Perspective Several events in the next month or so will test Jakarta's ability to cope with disaffected groups and hotspots other than East Timor The government's response will affect the high-stakes political maneuvering in advance of the selection later this year of a new president by the People's Consultative Assembly - Selection of Assembly delegates is far behind schedule and the major parties are embroiled in internal conflicts over strategy and presidential preferences -I The 34th anniversary of the 30 September abortive coup that ushered in the Soeharto era and holidays honoring the military including Armed Forces Day on 5 October and the struggle for independence against the Dutch on 28 October couldfan nationalistic sentiment and stir debate about military-civilian relations Regional Actors Restive Disenchanted groups around the- archipelago may try to exploit Jakarta's distraction with East Timor and the Assembly Religious leaders in Aceh this week publicly called on the government to hold a referendum similar to the one in East Timor to allow residents to choose whether to remain in Indonesia or to become independent - Habibie's preoccupation with the presidential selection process suggests Jakarta will do little to dampen the already high tension Press reports say police last week killed one person in Irian Jaya after some residents encouraged by the Timor vote raised a separatist flag ma 2 S--Mt 17 September 1999 MORI DocID 1078761 Others Waiting in the Wings Student and other groups are reemerging on the political stage demanding political reform and accountability Several student protests this week occurred in Jakarta according to press reports and demonstrations in Jakarta and elsewhere will grow in size and eq y in the runup to the Assembly In contrast Muslim constituencies are likely to use the Assembly not the street to flex their political muscle They will not form a united front because of internal divisions but each of the presidential candidates needs support from at least one of the large Muslim blocs giving Muslim activists an incentive to raise the temperature of their political rhetoric and to press their parochial concerns Top Secret 3 17 September 1999 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu