333's 4 - i the 88% word low As a remit the estimated production of bombs boo - I u swam been inoroaaed It is now believed that the maxim moor of bombs in the Soviet stockpile in 1955 will be not morn than 20 if the firat E 22729 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Wr- AGENCY 243 STREET NW 25 D C 6 Joly 1948 mowtpm FOR THE PRESIDEHT Subject Estimate of tho Status of the Russian Atomic Energy Project In the interval sinoo 116 15 1947 report on the Status of the Soviet Atoaio Energ Program was issued no information has been received that necessitates change in tho augment of that report It baa mined to rely on mowlodgo of the United States Britioh and Canadian experienco in order to projoot prooant information into tho future Infomotion received since December adds somewhat to our knowlodgolof the details of the 1883 a project but it continues to be impossible to-go temino its exact status or to determine the dato scheduled by the Soviets for the mpletion of their first atomic bomb It baa been learned however that in thoomor of 1947 tho highest Soviet authority was seriously diat rbod by the lack of prowess - 7 - On the tailor the evidence now in our possession it is estimated that tho earliest date by which it ig rmtoh possible that the 8583 may ham couplotod its first atomic bomb is nick-1950 but the most probable date is believed to be mid-1953 Further discussions with geological consultants further literature studies and such information as has been received from the field lead to the conclusion that previous eotimtoa of the total reserves of amnion available to bomb is in 1953 or not more than 50 if it is completed in 1950 The above report was delivered to the Joint Congressional Atomic Enemy Comittea of which Senator Rickenloopor is the Chairman and in addition has also been diasominatod to the Armed Services and the Deparheat of State This report although prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency was examined and canon-rod in by the intelli- oe agencies of the State Any Raw and Air Force Dopartaents as ion 190 if a Tiff Ho 3 233 a Class 3 3 8623233332 3 323 R 3' HILWGETM Wgt gvl 114 Dan-i - 135 Rear Minimal Hg HR Director of Central Intelligence om a g lj 5 91 Byf l cc - Executive Secretary 0013 National Security Council - C 61kg 31 le I V w Lib l 11 3 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu