ILLEGIB Approved For Release 2009 06 03 review completed review completed Approved For Release 2009 06 03 3 Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000000100051IUI Inva SIGNATURE RECORD AND COVER SHEET DOCUMENT REGISTRY SOURCE DCI CIA CONTROL NUMBER DATE OF DOCUMENT 9 23 49 DATE DOCUMENT RECEIVED 3 23 49 COPY NUMBER 5 one copy LOGGED BY IUMBER OF PAGES one DOCUMENT R0 AMBER OF ATTACHMENTS three-Cy 35E 8 of 15 49 1 15 49 Votlng 311p ATTENTION THIS FORM WILL BE ATTACHED TO EACH TOP SECRET DOCUMENT RECEIVED BY THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE LCENCY OR CLASSIFIED TOP SECRET HITHIN THE CIA AND REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE DOCUMENT UNTIL SUCH TIME AS IT IS DESTROYED 0R TRANSMITTED OUTSIDE OF CIA ACCESS TO TOP SECRET MATERIAL IS LIMITED TO THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHOSE OFFICIAL DUTIES RELATE TO THE MATERIAL EACH ALTERNATE OR ASSISTANT TOP SECRET CONTROL OFFICER WHO RECEIVES RELEASES THE ATTACHED TOPSECRET MATERIAL MILL SIGN THIS FORMAND PERIOD OF CUSTODY INTNE COLUMNS PROVIDED THE NAME OF EACH INDTVIDUAL WHO HAS SEEN THE TOP SECRET DOCUMENT AND THE DATE OF HANDLING SHOULD BE INDICATED IN THE COLUMNS EEFERRED TO RECEIVED RELEASED SEEN av OFFICE SIGNATURE DATE TIME DATE TIME NAME A OFFICE SYMBOL DATE I 25x1_ OIREBTOR N0 gig M0 CHEHOFTN 33 '00 DEMAADFMO T5 5 AD RN10 A 25x1 WEB mung fliuila llq NOTICE OF OETACHMENT THIS FORM IS DETACHED FROM TOP SECRET MATERIAL IT WILL BE COMPLETED iN THE ATE SPACES DELON AND TRANSMITTED T0 CENTRAL TOP SECRET CONTROL FOR RECORD The Top Secret materia detached from this form was AUNNGRADED 3 NY _m SIGNATURE NESTROTED OUTSIDE CIA TO REFICEI IDATEI TOP SECRET FR 3946 35 13 PREVIOUS EDITIONSHNOF TO BE USED - 3 an 1 mm TM Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 mum mud 3 -1 3 Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 v if It 55 A 56135' 55551315452555 317 5 71 75 1391113335 Eff 5311555 05151531553355 5355 5 11mi i555 EEY 3553513751 25 23 511733551553125155553 12 13118 Joint 553 P25323232 55302232 3315 525233 Jnrit 12' 5 525 953 32 5 3523 113 3352553225223 33552 55515551553 5132 21333531522353 3222 022 533 um Has-a Bowman Ho'- no names In GLASS E1 gaiLv 3232 33 31an cuss 32233322 in am azvlaw an 10- 5 32 5 3 5'2 53333223 33332323351332 33533 tit-52 9 2219315 watts 05 55133 5323235 - 552231333 - 33223205 5333332325 wt 3515351153 32 33 3 armed mp calf-1 53233332 3332233 of 353233 513 3 32 22 313 5503 3233 3 222 35 ih2 2 3213323 5 332135332 Approved For Release 2009 06 03 32333227253353 1332 533232 3553232212 9v - - 00100051-1 A Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA RDP8ORO1731R0008 7 lUt R 11 930010 mam #310 Jaint 0010a Energy Inte ligeme Gmittee makes the follmning astigmem 0 3 future bomb aagahilitiea in the light of reams event-0e 7 L the eamlasion sm-zwham in Siberia on 0r 2E Augum 1949 i Cai' a San-trig atomic their first made of plutonium confirms cur prm imm conclusion my the Soviet atomic energy sect mm irec'tmi toward the production 001' giiu mnimrx bombse Re The fixing of ohm data has made possible the reevaluation of mum fragmentary ini amation which previously we could not interpret This remans Zirulaati01 14 3E togethem with 2mm new informtiom leads to the fellowing soncluaion 2 The 11 3 8 R has has one and possibly two graphitee-maciemtad predutmion piles in cremation mince about October 1948 It is auspacted that that- 9 1-3 a third pmduetion pile under construction which 2 50 ha in operaticm abortive Thare its no evidenca or Exzdicaw hm-n that the Soviaiz 313% daveleping a uranium isotcpe sway whim 1330013935 at the present timee 3353055 cm this comaluaion on remand es mtea of the maxiimmu azimum' 0f urazazszim axmilabla 0 0 the assumption that the first bomb aasm eci was i mam-01 imm iataly and 0 21 the assumption that their plants mm mam-ta 1 ed high it is asa kaimatec that le number of b00033 in the f-Eimiet atc kpila will be 10 by the and at 3 949 1 735 by midublg mid 3 951 '75 by Judo-195 2 110 by midw1953 For long ravage planning 10030131036523 after Md 33533 the bomh preciuciion raters may be managed tea be 15 0 per year Nagasakiatype bamba have been awaumeri 13 1 'pumaaea 0f ealnulatione In making them 0230111131203 based on a plu'hanim bomb it is stsumed that the 30010135 will put into effect by 1111 134 1950 mas 010r$him 0r mm improv ze praceaiures 12113119 operatian recently instituted 31 31 13 4 0 The ultimate bemb st 3elmiie depands 110% only on the supply 03 mam-mi area but 03 30 on the efficienay of the methods producing the rgeaterialse it is believed that the uranium are supply is not a limiting- metcr new The 3110003 55 1 1 1 application of production methods whim we 0 0 mew envision will px'ovicie a mare efficient utilization of their limited relative to the 11 Se 31300114702110 of uranium and will increase the 111tim 1 0 eteescp e by subatantia Eastern Additional production reexamine- e111 he needed 1 0 Mares-3 30 the preduc bion rate significantlye I I WRET Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA- f- gees 3'50 ofui azaiesw A'om CENTRAL INTL ELLIGFNGE AGENCY NICLEAH ENEHEY BRANCH STAINS OF THE 13 5 53 1 2 ATDEIG ENERGY IL 02' ber 194 as 1M5 M9 This dominant my not be reproduced priw approVal of the Director of antml Intelligence mm M w no swam cuss t mammals muss DHAHGEB In 13 3 25X1 BATE MOTH 1 2 33113 3 re art has been agreed apan by the members of the Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Gom t'tne which 3 3 campased of representatives 9f the De wart 31931173 of Stew Armr Navyg and Air eroei 19 Atomic Faxergy Comr asion and thu Central Intelligence Agenczu Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 u i i Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 onp m a STATUS OF 1313 0 5 3 11 1151mm PMMT The Jain Nualear Energy Intelligence Committee makes the folluwing estimate af capabilities in the light of recent events 1 The explosion somewhere in Siberia an ar about 8 August 1Q499 f a Savi t atomic bomb preaumably their fir t made of plutnnium emnfirma cur previoua-concluaion that the nviet atnmim energy prmgeat was direct temard he preduction of plutcnium bomb3 2a The fixing of this data has made possible the ra valuatinn cf much wmgmantary information which previaualy we could not interpret Baaed an thin raQV luat1an and aoma new infurmatiau on currant astima ea of the 'm ximum amoun of uranium available on the that the firat bomb gamembled was tested immediately and on the aseumption that thai plants will opara a at high efficiency it is esiimated tha the maximum number a hambs in the Soviet atockpila will ha roughly 10 by the and of 1949 50 by mi wlg l 110 by midw1953 In making these aatimatas based an a plutonium bumb it 15 aagumad that the Saviats will put into effect by mid 1950 he mare impartant impyove prmcadur a in pile operation regently inatituted in the'U SO 30 SEQEET Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 Tfm hn rm i n 2' TH - a Approved For Release 2009 06 03 2 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 qt w a 71 3 0 VOTING a IP AGENCY DATE 511mm Rapor b osx sn-15 49 1 dated 1 October 1949 Approved Approved the follmring emeption SIGNED Approved For Release 2009 06 03 CIA-RDP80R01731R000800100051-1 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu