33A eoev 381 Av oaenoonda3111511 m mmw J - t JOZRT COMMITTEE ON ATOKIC ENERGY m mhmm 33 Ronda her Copies Seriesgic 1Q Sub Re rt of the Central Intelligence Agency Amenjments to the Construction Rider A 4' TABLE OF CONTEKTS NNF Pave Home e nfeo Statement by Admiral Hillenkoetter 3 -W ma a Construction of Piles in Russia 7 Nature of the Russian explosion 19 Reference to the General Smith statement 20 Activities in Yugoslovia 23 Poeeibility of Russian Military Action 36 Reason for Error in Explosion Estimates Q6 Intelligence Coverage M b9 3 References to the Super-Bomb 59 Prior Information Exchange with Russia 65 Construction Rider on Appropriation Measures Statemeot of commissioner Lilienthal 70 Nature of Estimates Submitted 80 Borden Provision of Amendment 88 1 Interrogation by Senator Nillikin 90 DATE Reading of the Amendments 129 4zzyc790 oAtA mug41 Ed nasal Disiemln qifl 63 8 #291561 1 M2 1954 qm Kucxi 7 7th 'v t 7 38 rib 37 V 33 3 80 30de I q nzu c1W h Ctb l3 -1 a - 9 N 8 ms-m mow 1 My REPORT 0 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY n9 TO Th3 CONSTRUCTION MONDAY OCTOBER 1949 United States Senate House of Representatives Joint Committee on Atomic Energy Washington D C The Joint Committee met at 10 30 pursuant to call in Room hatG The Capitol Senator Brien MeMahon chairman of the Joint committee presiding Present Senators McMahon chairman Connally Hickenlooper Xillikin and Xnowland and Representatives Durham Holirield Jackson Price Committee Staff members present William L Borden Executive Director Harold Bergman Deputy Director and MeeNrs Brobeck and Hamilton Representing the Commission present Commissioners Lilienthal Strauss and Pike and Messrs Shugg Hollis Colby and Henderson the Central Intelligence Agency Rear Admira iE killenKoetter CIA Lt Col wine 313% Ms a I 177 a 5 1-WW8 Ja fw 313mg 73 rsr 2 Ha FT 9 0 a 88200443 WW ingq-n w n ww -H rm M amt mwaw me w m l Dr Willard liachle CIA il j Lt Col We Boyd Air Force Commdr Klein Navy Dr Louis Woodrufr USA Joseph Chase Department of State I n The Chairman While we are waiting for a couple or more of the members of the committee to eeme in I will Just take a minute to read fh8ee items of information which I knew yeu will be interested in which have developed during the past week In the matter of heavy water the Commission has authorized the sale to Canada of an extra 3932 h pounds or heagy water te permit Chalk River to resume Operations with zero energy experimental pile The eele is necessary beceuee of the loss of water in an accident in the menu- featuring pile at Chalk River in October or 198 I might add that this is tep secret Emergency clearances The AEC has given emergency clearances to 117 pereene for access to restricted data in June of 19h9 Green Salt A eubuepecificatien production of green salt uranium Eetroflouride in partial chemical composition at Cleveland between April uncovered by the Commi 1E a ET 882 0 '2 a 7 immemwsystem Hershell officials admit the incident No 9 V m financial material lose to the Commission has resulted although the unit cost of the uranium Nor K-25 may have been increased as a result Senator Knowland What Was that I missed the start at that What happened there The Chairman Subeepecifioetion production of green eelt that is uranium took place in the Herebeid Chemical Company plant at Cleveland between April 19 and July 12 It hae been discovered as result a of the sampling system there The officials of the company admit that this is true No financial or material lose to the Commission directly resulted although the unit cost of the uranium hex gtlouride or Km25 may have been increased as a reeult The FBI has conducted a study of the case and the Department of Justice is pureu ing the civil aspects Corrective administrative action has been taken REPORT OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Gentlemen we have with us today the Director of CIA Admiral Hillenkoetter ehd Dr Colby who takes care of intelligence for the Commission ehh their associates They are here at the request or as a result of the requeet by two hembere of the in which 2 wa wv uvv 1g 3-137 pr - 1 y 14 Avgwed 44 4 51 1111 2131 7 3 Ussze 37 a Joined that ese gentlemen come Up and go over the a intelligence situation as it pertains to Russian manU facture of atomic weapons I have read to the Admiral the latest statement and estimate that hae been made by on the situation namely they eXpect at the end of thie year to have production Representative Jackson Do we want to make a record The Chairman Yea Inthink so The then following discussion by direction of the Chairman was not placed on the record The Chairman The thought was expressed gentlemen that the committee may find it necessary to take something more then a finished estimate and they wish to be en- lightened on the techniques and the information which went into making this estimate New Admiral Hillenkoetter in view or that do you wish to lead off Admiral Hillenkoetter Mr Chairman and gentlemen as to that estimate I will try to eXplain how this Joint nuclear energy intelligence committee arrived at that estimate Before the eXploeion of the bomb around the first of September we had a great deal or fragmentary in formation that was very much like information that could be compared to a where you had lote 3 5 14% 4 of A s and B's and X s and Y s but nothing to tie it down 3 to and it could fit anywhere in space The moment yOu a coastant in and the constant was the definite date when this happened it tied down other fragmentary information that we had which you could work backwards and forwards from One of the things that was esplained and develOped as a result of this was that our estimates were not too far off in the first place 3 The first estimate that we had that the Russians would havs the bomb or a possible one by was based on the fact that they did not start any work on atomic bombs until after the Hiroshima explosion By going back over the information that we have as a result of this fixed i date that was given it looks very much now as if the Russians instead or starting in 1945 certainly started the theoretical side and made perhaps even part or the construction side in 19h3 so our estimates or five years from the time they knew ab ut the bomb until it was pro duced still checks fairly well One was from 1945 to mid-1950 and the other was late l9b3 to mid l9b9 and there is only an error of a fer months in there Senator Knowland The report or the Royal Canadian 151 Cosmissisn indicated that they had an interest back in samples of it in 1943 882004wm0 SEESRET Wimm h fvgif zj Ric 4 West p-w 3er r rr v Wr rmvw t assw Wm 6 0 Jalifmm 11m $55435 19154 80 thaw- mg Wait until 1916 Admiral Hillenkoetter There was no check on that until we could get the absolute data From that it appears now on the messages we have taken and on the information we have taken that they worked much more on the Canadian inquiry report than we had given them credit for before The Chairman I did not get that They worked what A miral Hillehkoetter yhey used the Canadian re- ports and their espionage cases as it came out in the Canadian spy reports they used that information acre than we gave them credit for and that came as a check at working back over information we had starting with this date or around September 1 for an explosion PA ii-i- - m To determine the number of bombs estimatedi 31 5mm 50 com 0mm that estimate was made on a check or the inforhation that we had on the amount of material that was available to the Russians on the fact that it was_a plutonium bomb and on the fact that they had two piles ruhning now the third one shortly to come into operation The Chairman Are we sure or that that they have two Admiral Hillenkoottar Yes air and that in this a estimate the thing that we had to take'waa 5C9 s Daffy 5 that with the working their plahts It MJM J Ww mwl'ul'u at 339$ 0 at '8 Jul-i i 4 92 3 'Egl m Pia I -3I% f3niif h' - A o - va J -- d w 'wqwm amm3 Wilma MEL 1 35 81M i ii 22 1805 A 3 a UNUSED 33's r I g 353 1 9 - We have got to give them the full credit with the material aVall- able and the plants available and they can have by the end of this year Senator Conhally Is that on the assumption that they will get the raw materials or they have the raw materials available Admiral Hillenkoetter That is on the assumption that they have the raw materials new and on the raw mater- iala we khow enough of the quantity of raw materials that they can hat then an until this ka material is exhausted they should be able to produce about SAWTzw wvv we must go on that assumption G t and we can go on the that thay are less efficient than cur own planta and with the material they have and the piles they hava they could dothat air Represantative Durham Do we knew where they are 16 cated Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes sir we know where three of the factories are and we think that that is all that they have air a air cooled or water- The Chairman Thea I E3 Jr'wu nm 33 mums 1 vm JHJ JJ 13 Wecooled Admiral Admiral Hillehkoetter They are Water cooled but use graphite as a moderator sir The Chairman Are they undernground or above- 5 ground Admiral Hillenkoetter Above ground The Chairman 18 there any evidence that they are engaging in any high scale or high pressure research on a I thermal nuclear weapons Admiral Hillenkoetter We have nothing to indicate that air but I think that the only normal thing to do is say that they must be in that but we have come acroee nothing to indicate that at all so far air The Chairman Is there any indication of any change in yeur estimate of the number or people who are engaged in the project Admiral Hillehkoetter No air The Chairman That still is in excess of 150 060 Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes in the three plants The Chairman How about their raw materials p031- tion Admiral How cloae a check have we got on that Admiral Hillenkoetter That is one or the easier things to do air in getting a check on that because mbet k5 5nd burial or theie raw material imiijquming from the Yauklmov WWMW 1 882004 I 1 1 wa 33hr ff j-wVW kaWc- Ill Zi if hj W - 3 Mmm wm a mane a 9 1 fi 5 w r Ir mines in Czechoslovakia and he have had information of OQ people working there and that is why I think this estimate of the enumber of bomb 5 possible is pretty good because that is 3 one of the easier things to check on The Chairman You think if there were any good do- posits that they would locate on the inside of Soviet that you would know about it Admiral Hillenkoetter I think that we certainly would get indications of it and there has been no sign of certainly any extensive deposits so far The Chairman Are they engaged in high pressure prospecting Admiral Hilienkoetter Very much yes sir Senator Johneon The teiotype today carries an un- confirmed story that they are getting uranium out or North Korea Admiral Hillenkoetter That story has been out several times Senator but we never have been able to confirm it and it is easier to confirm in Koerea than it ie in Ruesia proper Senator Johheon May I ask a question When wet attempted to make the atomib bomb we tried in four differ ent ways and we that perhaps is the beet have adopted the Way that we found most effective and most ef icient Few do you account for that fact Admiral Hillenkoetter I think that that might be as a whole They might hpve worked it out in theory and they may have gotten inrom nation again from Dr May in the Canadian Spy trial I think it can be either one of those casea Admiral Hillenkeetter That may be but I gon t know which is the better way of the two or which is the best way or the four air Sanatcr Hickehlooper I believe the report announcea in 1946 that we centered on one method 18 the most efficient and it was stated very frankly Senator Johnson If they started in 19 as indii mated new that Was ahead or the report by two years Commissioner May I spsak to that point Just a moment There were t i h it ff at class scientists 8 any SECRET 1 gp t' 1 4 ME who in 1939 or SSE $m dzmi ely separate from any or the official enterprise worked out the details of a graphite moderated pile including the lattice structure and everything else Just from their general knowledge Sr the problems involved and the published information about the constants It wasn't the best possible design but it Was a design that probably Would have worked They wrote it up and it was kept in the safe in the Bureau of Standards in DP Brigge' office throughout the war I never knew it existed uetil about 1935 but that Was an entirely independent estIMate Durham What Was that published in Commissioner I don't think it ever has beeo published Mr Durham It never has been published This was a private report It was gent in to Dr Briggs as a possible contribution but it had been done quite independently or the authorized effort Senator Johnson I have another queetion that isn't quite related to this present question but Drew Pearson last night repeated what I have heard a great many times that the Russians had discovered or captured that is probably the better way or saying it neutrons from coemic rays Are our scientists still laughing at that Admiral Hillenkoett z tiban't answer that one 811 I WW- - - - gm wv-wv I I out 'tsm that is away over my head a i533 Commissioner I can't laugh at it because I can t understand what the news reports or what the origin of the report is I don't know what they are trying to say that they have done so I can't say They probably have learned something about cosmic rays that we don t unoeratand but we may not have learned some- thing I don't know but what thia partieolar report means I den t tell If I may so when I read in our own press re- ports of scientific meetinge when I know pretty well what the subject was that was discussed many times when I have hear the paper I am atill not always able to eetabliah the connection between what was said and what I read in the paper Senator Johnson Well for two years I have heard etoriea about the attempting to use the neutrons that are supposed to occur in cosmic rays and I have talked to some or our scientists about that and they say that it is a very foolish idea Now I am Just wondering if that is still a very foolish idea from the scientific point of view I would say it is a very foolish idea just in terma of that we have my gut 'x _rJ l vozmoua SBA How woof rm ai i 3 3 W w - MoiC ET av nable' What I as trying to suggest me that 11 4511 is very hard to know from the press reports what in fact the Russians have been doing or have been suggesting Representative Price Isn t this sort of touched on in this report from the Russian scientists that made a press release in Paris Commissioner I have just been looking at it and this is a beautiful illustration of the difficulty Here it says this that in a report presented to the Atomic Research Commission he concluded that it was is- i possible in the present state of techniques to provoke a nuclear reaction of hota and I suppan thatis the th xar nuclear reaction That is a misuprint it should be beta and then it says something about an auxiliary mixture which means the combination or thorium plea brevium Do you know what that is Dr Colby That is short for one of the properties known as uranium X 2 known as 234 Commissioner It does make sense or it-doesn't make sense Dr Colby If you twist the meaning some you can make sense out or it but it isn't meaningful as it Stands Admiral Hillenkoette 1 N 8 the report of Colonel 8 8 0 0 4 Isms w Mo anterioasz Wm tiff Ivvr-F' -w 1r wvw 2' I 1 I-r'trr'J a WMcanoe 5381Hoev i 03d Mwmwa l m wm m mmwvonSelof We have some information on that When that rgf g port came out a couple or days ago we tried to check every file of biographical data we have and there is no Colonel Selof that exists We do have quite a few on the writer who wrote this a fellow by the name of Deibar He is euedo eoientifio writer with a very Communist tinge and I thiok some of those articles his and some of the others ere put out porpoeely leaked out by the They are not sure how we found out about this atomic bomb explosion yet and they would like to get some affirmations or some denials on stories like this But there is no record in Russian scientific biographies or military biographies about a Colonel Selof and if any Russian knew as much as he claimed to know in this inter- View on the Russian atomic energy development he would not be roaming around Paris free Even in the story it said that he had Just left Paris for some other place for South America I think that that is a leak to try to provoke us to either affirm or deny to get the information of how we did find these things There have been a number or stories of that kind and I think that they are wondering just how the thing because they have said in 888 888 - 88 8% j 2 vaw Accra - 1 qu 71-7 7 ww rvw-w a 4 3 8111 L r ff siaHA2 neonooee wenoliva 3 mwwt i- wet me mw m- nw Hurl 7 - my 1 530 Mm W e e 8y Mum-i i that no have got it from stations around the Mediterrate and a few other things T e Chairman I would like to believe that but I find it very difficult for this reason that anybody that is capable of making one of these things it WOddi seem to me would have to know about the result of explod- ihg one and the fact that the air would be loaded and would be faundo 3 Admiral Hillenkoetter I think that they do air but they are not sure about it They are making a guess out they would like to be certain about it Price They made every type of guess i too Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes and they would like to be certain which it is that we don't have an apparatus that is either much more eeneitive or much better than they have and I thihk that they can estimate what it is but they are not sore which estimate is right end- that is the reason that these things are all coming out This fellow Delbar was the man who came out a year ego or 18 months ago with a story of Prague that he had been told in Prague that somebody else had exploded a bomb the year before that or something Repreaentative Jae T that the same source 888884 8 88 e535 1 m j thmw information that u W 3r wk I 4 Representative Price Is that Admiral Zacharias Representative Jackson No I have a recollection that sooe Paris weekly made an announcement in July that the Russians had exploded a bomb Does that tie in Admiral illehhoetter That is the same fellow that put that one out and he put one out last year sometime about a purported dateline from Prague thit they had a bomb Representative Jackson You don't attach any eighi- ficance other than their desire to try to feel us out for information Admiral Hillenkoetter That 18 a big thing behind it and another one is promoting the prestige that they had this thing a long time ago Representative Jackson This chap came pretty close whether it is a coincidence or accident or what when he announced in July on July 10 that they bed the bomb The Chairman He said an eXplosion occurred on July lo that they had OXploded one on Jhly 10 Representative Jackson And when Was this supposed to take place August 28 The Chairman 1 w Wng-ur 1v - n' be 882004 ECRET Admiral hillenkoetter A lot of them oeme out the week after the President announced it Drew Pearson came out and he said that he knew it about a year and a ehslf ago the month that it Was going to oe exploded end Walter Winchell said that he knew at least two years ago about it the very month and everything when it would be eXploded but they are damn poor patriots that they didn't come around and tell us anything about it until sftef it had been announced Representative Jackson Do we have any definite assurance that there has not been any prior exploeion in Russia Admiral Hillenkoettee As far as we can tell theref has not This is the first one sir Representative Jackson Has that been eheoked very carefully Admiral Hillenkoetter As Carefully as we could and on the checking on this it was not only this committee who have intelligence people and scientific peeple too but the checking came from Dr Becher Dr Bush Dr Copenheimer Parsons and Conant and it s11 oheeks that they had it Representative Jackson And you have complete con- firestion with the ailmtr these SE it 425 r 3 aw 1% Linju 1 we va e meemomeWQW 251i 1 9 1 V93 Gee WM 333 Hoev Bel i an 3sr minimal at h-v Admiral hillenkoetter And te did our beet wten we were checking the thing and we would have liked to have found it the other way that it Was not an atomic texploeion and the desire was to find that it wasn't one Senator Knowland Is it possible that they might have planned an explosion earlier in July and then they didn't quite have the right combination or the critical mass or something and some of these high officials could have gone down there for their Alamogordo end it didn t come off on schedule Admiral Hillenkoetter That is very poeeible Representative Durham When did you arrive at a definite conclusion that tliey had two piles operating and were building a third Admiral Hillenkoetter That is within the last two or three weeks on the information Durham Since the eXploeion Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes because the explosion gave me a tremendous help in working beoKWarde and for- wards air The Chairman Is there any indication that they are trying to separate 235 in any large scale Admiral Hillenkoetter l We havenot had that yet i There is no indication 0k egig -53 9W3 SE 40w WMWW- imam mm memw 9 5 In kt' - wa j 53A 253 W7- - 2 qu- 7 The Chairman Were there traces of anything else in the bomb such as thorium Adeiral Hillenkoetter I do not remeeber enough ebout that and I would like to ask one or the scientific people to say about that Dr Colby There were no traces of 235 The Chairman There were none you say Do Colby There were no traces it seemed quite ooholmeive The Chairman It was a straight plutonium bomb Br Colby It was not a mixed bomb is that what you mean Mr Chairman It seemed quite conclusive in that respect Representative Jackson Reference was made you mentioned three plants Do you mean that they have three separate plente with piles in of construction or is this the whole program involved in the three glante Admiral Billenkoetter The whole program involves three plants and we are trying to get more information on that how but the whole program involves three plants Representative Jackson And as far as you know they only have the two piles in operation and they will have a third one operating at the end of the year ' looke that way sir mm we i Wm 5 3751' vii 57 Efw l 5 mm Wm mm 5 15 3m 2 saan ay 331 iv a Ifgyw mu 1 PET 20 9 Representa Jae son And the piles are to that at Hanferd Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes sir Rehresentative Jackson For production Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes sir Representative Jackson Is there any indication whether they are of more improved design Admiral Hilieknoett r ho sir we haven t anything on that air at all i Representative Durham Have you been able to get a hold or any documents or anything printed in Russia at' all in regard to the Admiral Hillenkoetter No sir I think that there are very few documents air The Chairman They must hate loads of them but they prabahly guard them pretty carefully and Admiral I don t knew how important this question is but I find it here that you remember that on June 29 the committee wrote you with reference to an off the-record statement made by General Walter R Smith while addressing the Governors' Conference in Colorado and he predicted the time when Russia would eXplode its first weapon Your reply merely quoted the Chriatian Science Monitor's pre s coverage of this - GREI a 19 If r 41 n 53A enev wveeAive ei Av WMWW air gun-Am a It is noted that in the September 30 Rochester Demecrat Chronicle General Smi i is quoted as having made the statement in Rochester that he was not surprised by the Russian atonie expleeion and which recalled hie epeech en June 23 at Ceieredo Springs New the question is in View of the foregoing I pregame that you have talked with General Smith and I was curious te know whether he possessed any information that was the bees ef that statement that he made back in June Senator Hiekenleoper What did he say in Coldrado Springs The Chairman He said in Colerado Springe frem the press eccennte in general statements I gather that he indicated in very general terms in an session that the may econ test a bomb The Chrietien Seience Meniter en June 21 stated that General Smith emphasized hie Opinion that the Sevieta at not have the knew-hew te make the delicate machinery needed for remote ontrol handling er atomic materials necee- eary fer production 0 any large number of bombs when it is noted in thie connection that the Russiane can t even make watches yet As a wild he added ft might take the Soviets 5 more to produce the 5 2 aa- Evy Mfr - t A awwmd Wm 73 tr- 331 3 1L- Hi iv e3a eoev 1eeo 8ee w 22 pOweI ful type Of 0 Eng who this country is stockpiling Consequently there is no evidence to indicate that General Smith s statement this is your reply and am quoting from that Admiral Hillenkoetter I have talked to him since then and he has no information other than the fact that he lived up there and he saw them working with mechanical things and he didihot have nearly as much as we had It was a general over all impression on that The Chairman You know Admiral Russia seems to I be filled with contradictions You hear all of these 882094- I p-vw-r WWVEW stories about how they let our equipment go to the devilm during the war and yet we lost a 3 29 and they copied it beautifully and they got these Jet planes that go as fast they say as ours do and of course now we know that they have made a bomb I was Just curious to know what General Smith's reaction to this thing wee Admihal Hillenkoetter He said that that statement wee made as a very general one and Just from his living in Moscow The Chairman In other words they didn t show him their best side Admiral Hillenkoetter That is probably it air The Chairman I think $ 8e are all or the L 16th A53 37 uq 3' W Vviwv 1meth WWYW WW Wm meimquestions that I have got to ask you Representative Durham Admiral I was wondering about tbie Tito thing about his Was that oorreot information or do we have any information Admiral Hillenkoetter On Tito Representative Durham Yes Admiral Hillenkoetter He is not 111 unless it is over the weekmend I haven't seen any reports today He was perfectly all right last week There have been two attempts at assassination within the past month but none of them even came close to him They shot at his autoi mobile and another time somebody tried to shoot him when he was in a crowd but he wasn't wounded or anythingr else 30 unless something happened over the weekend I haven't seen other reports this morning The Chairman They were not reported in the press were they Admiral Hillenkoetter No air The Chairman Those attempts on his life A miral Hillenkoetter No sir I didn t them in the press The Chairman I haven't either it is news to me Jackson There is a story in the Washington Post by Gem aQidn't he make some comment 3H Hana-g i mnmu vaam Is 5 there that an sit 5 i Admiral Hillenkoetter They did shoot at his auto mobile and he has got oullet-oroof automobile and it di n t gurt him or hurt anybody in the car With him The Chairman What is the purpose of censoring that do you think Admiral Hillehkoetter I think perhaps it was censored in Yugoslovia The Chairman I agree but I wondered why they woold do it Admiral Hillenkoetter Simply to not let the idea spread around there might be something to keep anybody 3188 from thinking about it The Chairman That is perfectly rational as a con cluelon Well gentlemen those are all of the questions that I have Representative Jackson I hae a few short queetions Admiral new that the Russians have the bomb plus the fact that the Russians are having tough luck in the world in the cold war 90 for Senator Millikin What is that 7 Representative Jackson In the cold war and the um Marxist dogma to the effeci Eta Bhe collapse of 7882 004 - 55 SECRET uncut T7 19 37 7w 882004 15o - Li _ xueuanur 33A 333v 3veoaive 3H1 iv naonooedj vii- - capitalism is inevitable and that that isnot workLn out according to plan plus the apparent real trouole with the Tito aspects as effects the other eat utee what are tLie possibilities from the information coming in with reference to the Russians possibly making military moves into Western Europe and I should add the last thing coupled with the fact that within two or three years they know if we go ahead with our military pre program for Western Europe that they might not be able to break through what is all of thie leading up to as for as mobilization within Russia for poeeible war Admiral Hillenkoetter Well there is no indication of any mobilization of area within Russia for a possible war I think one or your assumptions ought to be changed a little bit they are losing the cold war in Europe but they are not losing it in China and they are gaining to beat the bend in Aeie So you might balance one as against the other and there is no indication at all they are preparing for any military move On the whole things are working out the way they are expecting them to work out and eventually the capitalistic society and eepitelietio economy is E3Ei If yeeh or its own weight and I do not believe mmediate future oi IDX 3'11 - a - 3 that there is any chance of any military movement ae'cge5 far as we could see ahead now in the immediate future I Representative Jackson But what if they come to these two points What if they come to the conclusion that Capitalise apparently will not collapse within the required period of time that is number one and number two the second factor that by 1952 or 1953 sufficient arms and plus the will to fight exiete in Western Europe what are they going to do then Those are my two main points Admiral Hillenkoetter 1 think the first one ie that they firmly believe in it You can't deny the doetrinee of the bible it is hearsay to deny that it ie not going to come and they think that Will etay the same Representatiye Jackson Do you think the men in the Pelithuro will completely follow that doctrine although the faithful naturally the rank and file on down through are following it but what the Kremlin that must make these decis- ions if Admiral Billenre P 82 don think so There is no indicathx mw rglaent conditions air and Ture fwz mrw avg m sun-WW lwr- rs 3' 5 rm mr rem WW ff 5 Mega iv Cf 277 7 rm to lo o uh we 'er ammo A 2 SECREKW that ie certainly good for about six months It tg'3 I does not mean that it is going to change after six months but that is as for es we can see ahead that you can predict oefinitely that there is not going to be any military moves within six months Representative Jackeon What about Yugoelovie against Tito Admiral Hillenkoetterm No sir they will not Representative Jackson Do you think that they are going to try to stir Up a civil war Admiral Hillenkoetter ithink that is very definitely so that there will be a civil war or in- enrreetione there like in Greece there will be no military movement by the Soviet Union Representative Jackson That would be the first step against Tito would be to stir Up a revolution and then if that is not successful and the satellites continue to deviate from the orthodox line such as has been taking place in Hungary and Czechoslovakia and the terrific purges then they might have to move lest they lose all control of their plan and program to extend eoviet dominance through the extension or Russian foreign policy 8200 no indication at all for at least six months - 1 to no An- Representative Jackson Aren't there a lot of factors that are building up here And they are building Up quite rapidly to a point where something can happen Admiral Hillenkoetter I think the factors that are building up if they are building up they are building up that they wongt go to War The only thing they have lost in Europe is Tito Representative Jackson You are basing that on the assumption that they are completely convinced of the inevitable collapse of capitalism but it once they change that Admiral Hillenkoetter That and the fact that they are still sway ahead in Europe There are deviation movements in Czechoslovakia and Hungary and Poland but they are not getting very far and the deviationists are going to Jail Representative Jackson But they are not making any headway in the other countries in France and Italy in the recent elections over there and of course in Austria they picked up a seat or two Admiral Hillenkoetter In Austria you never diB hav any Communist Party of l w 1R 2 x as sewers -reuahs 7 I A at Ho 0P ham 7 o you arrive at eu hrgoh- clueions that they haven't reduced the Army They have built Up a much larger air corps and now they have the atomic bomb Admiral Hillenkoetter They are not going to lose what they have At time that they get'into a mili tery adventure you den t knew haw that thing is going to 50 and they are not goihg to take a chance Every dieteterehip that has been in power has never lost by its own people overthrewing it it is aIWays the result 1 er an outside military mevement that gets them Representative Jackson Then they are not goingto overrun EurOpe unless thinge don t werk out Admiral Hillenkoetter I think that they have got plenty er time and they are net leeihg anything by going on with this and it doesn t cost them anywhere near what it costs us to keep an Army and it doeen't cost them much to keep laborers nae way we do Representative Jackson How about internal dir- ficulty within Is there any evidence or it Admiral Hillenkeetter Yes definitely there 13 89538 SEGRAESL v- Wz-wri-I -v - T Wir r lri Representative JaeT at of that is in the Ukraine 882004 J4 Kw e87 w gre W V vw wgvz-v-rw 5 iv gamma When 'wif I ma - SEQR r 38 7 Admiral HillenFoet m vwis in the Ukraine and in Central Asia amcng the Turkish tribes but that dissi- 238 dent movement hae existed there since 1918 and it ie an annoyghce end a bother but it is never going to he a fatal disease You-ere in the same fix there that the underground in France was in during the war The Frendh underground annoyed the Germans and they murdered a few people and that sort of thing but if the British and the Americans had not lended troops there that underground might have stayed there 1000 years but the Germane would never have been kicked out by the reenlte of the underground Representative Jackson 13 there any evidence of any possible division within the Politburo between the orthodox Marxists and Leniniets Admiral Hillenkoetter There is certainly no evidence new air you may get a break on that if Stalin eheuld die and you would have Various argues fighting for Representative Jackson Where is Litvinofr Admiral Hillehkcetter Litvinoff is in Eastern European Russia but he is practically out new Senator Connally Be is still in the foreign 4 bureau Admiral Hille e E' To x r882004m 4 - 5 W Fw 1' rwvw Hun v' - - - w-jwnr-v 117 v- Ir i g w Senator Connally I theught that he was Representative Jackson He is in disfavor ednirai Hillenkeeter He hasn t been shot er any thing he is living but he is not in any official poei- tide Senator Knowlend What is the eignificehce of the reperte that the Russians had meved eome armored divisions inte proximity of the Yugoelevia border 13 that merely sword rattling er is that a fact Admiral Hillenkeetter That is definitely a step in the cold war Senator To begin with we have had the erder of battle there for a long time and it is the 57th guards mechanized divieion and it is not an armored division but the newspaper accounts came out and I think very definitely they were put out that it wee an armored division down there and it wasn t an armored division and it wasn t mechanized to begin with and then there were some divieiene moving around down there and there is still one mechanized division the 5 th guards They hevedone the old trick that Christofer did in Haiti years ago They march from one place to another and each time they come into a new teen it ie a new division and if Qou get to three tewne in a day you have get three ermo vieene there That is the 382 SEWQREMD W73 9 731 - 44 -- 45 If 4 34 T753 3 - 2 4 r 41 44 3ny 4 5 my Wu saAie3ey i ooeda r5 way the press t creased their armored divisions down there in ranger i 3 38 dt they have not in- on the border there Senator Knowland Have the Hungarians or the Bulgarians or any others moved troops Admiral Hillenkoetter No air Representative Jackson Is miere any indications that General feo and his egowd will follow the Tito line Admiral Hillenkoetter There is no indication of that new no sir and that may come up in the future But there is no indication of that new Jackson The ticker today carries an unconfirmed story that the military had revolted against Russia in Albania Admiral Hillenkoetter I think that that is very possible that the Albanians have revolted But ae to Tito one or the things that he did to fight this Cominform is put a lot of Yugoeloeian supporters many of them Albanians by birth into Albania to over throw the present Albanian government We reported that two months ego that he had sent a lot of peeple it in there and the present government is not at all a particularly popular T9 N '31 In E 5taxn a t 3 1th mum vaon Mi't mmxGaonooada I m mm itoism something that is attachable to Tito in these countries or is it an indigonous inevitable revolt against direction from Moscow Does he really geem to he doing a pretty effective Job Admiral Hillenhoetter He has been doing a very effective Job Regresentative Jackson In these other countries Admiral Hillenkoatter There are movements against them there are dissident movements againgt them in all of the other oountfies but you never want to lose sight of tho fact that in apite of this movement Tito is still a very good Communist Representative Jackson I understand that com- plately and he Just disagrees with Stalin Senator Connally In this morning s paper it was commented there about some uprising not uprising exact- but it was in ulgaria Do you know anything about that Admiral There have been troubles in Bulgaria in collecting grain from the farms and the farmers have been holding out on the harvest and the Soviet inspectors and collectors have tried to get it and there are Bulgar in the hills and the tr U I my SECRET 3 Ki 882004 Ii heuhtaine there heve eon ueted a campaign against the government There are not enough to overthrow the goveremeht the way it ie new The Chairman You say that Tito is a good Commun- iet and I think that he is theoretically and I am wondering whether he can continue to be practically inasmuch as 80 percent of the Yugoelovien people are engaged in agriculture course he has revised er he has been forced to resist the Russian demands as I underetend it fer collectivizetion because his peasants eimply wouldn't stand for it Admiral Hillenkoetter That is very true but he hee etill never drapped the idea that some day he is going to get it and it is going to take more time than the allowed That was in his program and that was one ef the points where the difference eat up that they were pressing him to do this thing right away and it wee hie View that the time wasn t ripe for that and yet had better wait Representative Jackson He didn t have any real Xulek prehlem there to any great extent The Chairman In the last war in Yugoeiovia they_ divided up the land pretty well and they are lend- ewnere and I are not going to give it 4 3 6ng A a 'f ti 11 W d I 4 9 W - a I lmak l1without a fight Senator Millikin One of the strongest agrarian movements in Europe has been in Yugoslovia and they had one of the strongest political parties consisting of Kulaks and land owners Representative Jackson Isn't the story of Tito simply this that the Russians had banked on the Marx- ist Leninist doctrine of world_wide revolution as a means of extending Russian foreign policy all over the world and they had to run a calculated risk of fighting the culture the history and the tradition and the nation- alism in short and Tito being a strong man a good Marxist but disagreeing with the dogma that had been announced or perpetrated by Stalin of the Marxist Lsnioist approach he has placed his own interpretation on it and in so many words has said You can have what Marx and Lenin thought we should have by individual countries having their own Communist faith ' and that is the calculated risk that the Russians have taken However they did not take into account the strong factor of nationalism and the tradition and the culture that exists in these countries especially in a country '1 like Yugoslavia Isn t that basically the situation Admiral Hillenkoetgi sew 141e stete1 se7rvz 1 ignores a 1 79 5 no 1' 4w v43 Representative Jackson And they had hoped that their deetrine would give them the opportunity of ideolegleel conflict of taking over these countries and using it as an extension of their foreign policy Admiral Hillenkeetter Yes eir and also things were made a little easier for him than in eome of the other countries in that the Red Army did not liberate Yugeelovia in the war and'he did that himself and the Ree Army never entered Yugoelovie in any great numbers at all Another good why he eeuld get this feeling was that he stayed in the country all during the war and fought there and he did not stay in Moscow and come in with the Red Army when the war ended And I think another good ie that Yugoelovia is not touching Russia at any one spot Representative Jackson That is helpful but look at the Finns They have got a Army in their country and they have resisted them very and I think that the point is nat they have a strong nationalism Admiral Hillenkoetter You must have that nation alietic feeling or have come at all r 3Q H7 seen If -m wi' titan A j Irv 5% or TOP W5 Representa feel that they can be just as radical or even more radical in the sense of being revolutionaries in Yugoslovia without having tne thought of being incorporated look stock and barrel in the Soviet Union Admiral I Wanted to ask one last question Speaking of your feeling that there isn't any immediate efforts to mobilize for 3 wer how much notice would you get knowing the general make_up of the Russian eyetom that they were getting ready for a strike Admiral Eillenkoetter You can figure a minimum notice of a month that they would get Repreoentative Jackson But aren t they prepared right now with the ground forces they have and the air forces they have and by the end of this year what i they will have in the emomio weapon field to move on very short notice Admiral Hillenltoetter No air it will take even with what they have now some time They could start an air raid and put on an air rude over Belegrade or Paris or Berlin on practically no notice but they could not move their ground forces or their air forces in any numbers without about a month's notice Representative many divisions do they 5 27 1 7 131 11 488200 Tsw awngw r wr i 1 Ui wk w'v r have now under arms in Russia If k if 1% w z i 508 proper Admiral Hillenkoetter Roughly 100 in Rugsia now and about 75 scattered around sutelde sir Representative Jaskson And how much agsistance cauld they get the Admiral Hillenkaetter Well the satellite assis tance would be almost all Rapresentative your paint is that they den t to move he troops That is 175 divisions and have the logl$tics support Admiral Hillenkoetter Hell even the Russian lvisigns in Germany are only of full strength up to about 60 percent Senator What is the strength of a Russian divisia Admiral Hillenkaettar Roughly 15 000 men Sena- tar and they can3t march those people Just start-them Gut Senator Millikin Their Representative Jackevn baa shape railroads are bad Their railreads are in Admiral Hillenkoetter Well they have food ammu nition and ysu can take ten apeeple and go dawn and buf them tickets from Berlin is but you can t take v-To 0 n- wr w neimeoeMkWW WW SBA Hoav lVHdiiVN 3a WM Quw w WM - mum ire-UV 39 fifty divisions and do that Moat of their divisions are going to be walking divisions depresentative Jackson How long do you think it a will be before they will be in shape to move from the standpoint of the logistics Admiral Hillenkoetter Whenever they decided to make war you will get a month s notice and until they decide that they will never hate anything that can be moved immediately because you have to lay up gasoline and lay up food and ammunition Representative Jackson What was their position in lth Admiral Hillenkoetter In lle they had been pro C paring for two years for the Germans coming in on them Jackson Now they have been pre- a paring for how long Admiral Hillonkootter Well they are not pro- paring for war new air Representative Jackson The are not laying up any stockpilea or anything comparable to what they did in lle Our military were saying in l9b1 that the Russians would last 30 or 60 days and that was the g- word to those of us who were here in Coagresa and I i remember it very they completely under- WU La 82004 SECRET wuyfw rn- s33 H33v tvueiive Bei 3 0 MWWAW W7 in if - nun Pmmw g reted them rR gm ger LJ very and there were statements from an informed source being some of our top military people I hope that we don't under- rate tkem again I am not an alarmist Admiral Hillenkcetter We are not under rating them We are giving them every benefit and every assumption in their favor and we are not trying to out it dowr and say that they are only #0 percent efficient or 60 percent efficient Representative Jackeon When do you think that that will happen You say that they will move whenever they went to move but when can they move effectively from a military etendpoidt knowing the requirements Admiral Hillenkoetter That is why I say that we get a month's notice on that when they start piling in gasoline and food and ammunition into Germany Representative Jackson I thought that they didn't have the basic 33358 to stockpile They do have that Admiral Hillenkoetter They have the basic means Representative Jackson So that we could have war within 30 days Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes but you would have 30 deye notice Representative That 1e 30 daye' notice 1'21 8 E08 3 t 73 -l area 8 em 3 a 3 but there weui fe to get planes and a lot of other things that we need to manufacture eenator Knowlend As I understand it Admiral you have not said that they couldn't or were not in a position to make war but merely that in order for the build ep to be completed that we would have about 30 days netice that something was afoot They have the capacity to make war but it is only a question of how much notice we might get if they decided to push the button Admiral Hillenkoetter That is right Representative Jackson Do they have an effective beekl g new or the tranepertetien equipment and the food and all of the other essentials to supply an army That is what I am getting at I mean is it from a 33 military standpoint is it physically possible for them to wage war Admiral Hille keetter wellf en food there is plenty of foee in Russia and it has been etockpiled since the end at the war eed there is plenty ef food te eupply an army Tee Ruesian civilian may go a little hungry but there is plenty of food to give to the Army Representative Jacgaixf f%%y have disciplined than 53 31 7 5 Um were qu'11 SEA Hoof 3334931333 333i 3v 333300363 - Jim ET through many centuries Admiral Hillenkoetter As to tleir oil capacity eh that is the thing in any modern war the petroleum capacity is just about enough now to completely supply the army Representative Jackson For how long Admiral Killer koetter Continuously in combat now They have got enough but if any of that is last you get a Situation where you have a good raid over there or some of the other things the blowing up of the re- fineries then you have a Gifferent situation Representative Jackson Is that the full strength of the army Adtiral Hillenkoetter That is the full strength of the army 3 Representative Jackson That contemplates what army Admiral Hilleokoetter That is the same army the 175 divisions now Representative Jackson But I mean their eXpanded strength Aamiral Hillehkoetter It is hot enough for that That means taking the oifhboth in the Caucasus and in w Aw-Hw u -iw wwu ww vm the Humanian oil fields 3 3 m tfww vv f w-f g-m e we 30 9 3 SEQREI 41 Reprosentativ ey have enough oil and they have enough food and what about their trans- portetion Admiral Hillehkoetter Their transportation faciliw ties are very weak in Russia and they are going to be weak for years there Representative Jackson I assume it is part or your Job to evaluate all oi these things and determine tether or not from a professional military point of View they have the capabilities of carrying on the kind a or war that will bring them victory Do they have that potential now Admiral Hillenkoetter They have a potential of carrying on a war and whether you get victory or not I don t know sir Representative Jackson Knowing the Russian mind Admiral Hillenkoetter If they knew that they were going to have yictory you would probably have it today Representative Jackson Knowing the Russian mind do you think that they think that they have eufficient Admiral Hillenkoetter No sir I don t because if they thought that they had they would probably s y let us 89 and there doubt in their g 882 004 SLGRET may fit-r7 r1 31- IZES COW WHEN DELETED 3 914% Vi M9 82004 M- 11mm Hall mind A lbw Kk 3 3sz 3 wimp um mm 31 7 Representative Jackson Aren't we in a pretty precarioug sitUation I mean if the boys of the Polit- buro say that they have enough or number of bombs which they can send their suicide crews to the key spots where they will do the most important Job and thay are gaing ta catch America completely off-guard and here we go They wiil say If we don t they are 3 going to have all at Europe re-armed an all of these ether things that I mentioned earlier an I am wondering if we are not in a situation where anything can happen as you say an 30 days netice Admiral Hillenkoetter well that is always a paesibility sir but we will get I am sure at least a 30 days natice and I don't think that there is any chance of it new becauaa the odds are too much against a victery If they could get a victory in twe or three months and call it at then they would try it but they can t last out year new Representative Jackson They couldn t stand a pro- longed war A miral Hillenkoetter No air Representative Durham cow 9 IIVE mommow DELETED LEMMDW 99 silim ww h 4 882004 x94 Eric-ye Admiral Hillenkoetter Rapresentetive Jackson COPY no on DELE km A Admiral Hillenkoettr Admiral The Chairman I have two questions I really am asking you for what might be termed an edu- cated guess but lacking at your ball would yen tell us what you see ie the probabilities in Yugo- slovia D0 you think that they will get Tito do you think that they will be able to stave off this infil- tration of revolutionists that they are probably putting in there new Admiral Hillenkeetter Right now I think that they will yes sir Mr Chairman They have already missed twice and of course you never can tell when they might get him The Chairman Dc you think that he will hold the line Admiral Hillenkoetter He knows all or the games too He has played all of those games all or his life and he knows them pre 3 and I think that he c n qu nun r a 41 m5 vm - - 7 3' a a 1 331 $331333v 51331131 331 1 3 00333 m o 1 Hv hold out against any insurrection inside or anything on the oreer of Greece or guerrillas coming over there from Hungary or Bulgaria They can hoid out against those The Chairman Admiral the second question is has your organization given any thought to metiods of detection against bringing bombs in her on ships in our harbors a 1 Admiral Hillenkoetter No air not directly There is a committee of internal security which takes in the FBI and all of the military things and the Navy some of that The Chairman General Bradley informed me one time that that Was a problem that had been before the Joint Chiefs aad had been given a great deal of concern Admiral Hiileakoetter That has been referred to this committee and Mr Hoover is the chairman of that thing to try to work out something Senator Miliikin I have been very much inter eated in why we were taken by surprise on the Russian eXpleeion Admiral Hilleakoetter What do you mean Senator I don think that we were taken by surprise senator Millikin T I cP have made inquiries m 882 004 SECRET vy-we wA- fw xvy 3mm new mm 9 3 a w W j lhmm g $5 18-325 here as has been 1 times befere the committee on a number of occaeione as to what our intelligence service consisted of and we were told It that we muffed it at least a year and mayb longer and haw did we muff it and what is wrong with eur system Admiral Sillenkoetter I think that I epoke about this before you came in air that we are working OH 3 very great number of fragments of information and up until you had some solid fact to go on it was sort of a carve in space and you couldn t tie it down to any- thing Now when we ot the fact or the egpleaion that let us work backwards and forwards again and I think that we made a mistake The actual eats that we est1 mated about five years was pretty exact and it looks new as though the Russians started earlier than weehad estimated their starting point Senator any evidence of that mfg Wenoaive iv eaceeoegg or is that a surmise A miral Hillenkoetter We have got some evidence of that sir gj Senator Nillikin What is that evidence Admiral Hillenkoetter Oh some see we have picked mp 0Q that air Senator Millikin When did they start A miral Hillenkoetter It looks new as if they started in late 19b instead of after the Hiroskima bomb in l9h5 Senator Millikin In the laboratory or in the field Admiral Both Senator Millikin And our intelligence did not detect that Admiral Hillenkoetter No air you didn t have eneugh to go an in thet Senater Millikin Now let us take these things one at a time 933882004 -- 7'53'237'3 s nmzm cow EENSHWE INFORMATION Dam z w dw cm rsmva mroammom 53 3Amnzm COPY smva some #004509 3 882004 7 Senator Eillikin Let me say first to you that I have bee considerable eXperience in the intelligence business so that I know the difficulties that you Operate under and I know that you have to deal with fragmentary information but I want to know 5 Admiral Hillenkotter Well the only thing that I can give you on that is that we Just didn't get enough information out on it Senator Hillikin W i Aao ip 1- 3 f r u7 1' 8 h fl nd f L xvi mmng-m 15 - Ry Mala-1 Mm AWL 1 11 Senator illiein You always like to have it ten times as good as you have got it out you never do and I am got critical on that point I want to Know why we didn't get the information as to What Was going on Admiral Billeakoetter I can t anever that why we didn't get enough to do it Senator Connally We knew that they were working on it but we didnft kaow_that they had the bomb until it went off Admiral Hillenkoetter We knew that they were working on it and we started here and this organization was set up after the war and we started in the middle and we didn t know when they had started and it had to be picked up from what we could get along there That is what I say this thing of getting a fact that you definitely have on the exploding of this bomb has helped ue in going back and looking over what we had before and it will help us in what we get in the future But you picked up in midwair on the thing and we didn t know when they started air Senator Millikin I don t consider that there is any doubt that there is a certain amount of useful_1 mess in having a reference or a point of reference hen you get that after a that you are 8 2 0 0 4 49 I CRW WW J M- - f1 WWVw w-r vq v t lu v 9 SAWJZED cow ZNSITWE mam miVE DELETED 2mm 6 - wvuostvn 3H1 iv 033 808d3 3 gf ri My W7 Li tm w mw m 51 yea-5 Matc ing very closely tlist is not quite a victory for intelligence i enator Ccnnally Well the Ruseians didn't know thea elves that they had the until it went off dij they Admiral Hillenkoetter I doubt if they did any more than a lot of people in the United States knew it when ours went off Senator Millikin Admiral Billenkoetter On this Saptember no sir We atill estimated that it would be in mid- 1956 sir Senator Millikin Admiral Hillenkoetter Senator Millikin Admiral Hillenkoetter Senator Millikin fr WE l samnzm 0on mm 13mm 301% M Senater Nillikin Adairel Eillenkoetter Senator Millikin Admiral Hillenkcettern Senator Millik n Admiral Hillenkoetter Senator Killikin Admiral Hille koetter Senator Millikin - - -mvh 3 5 1 mm 3% iv 3333002533 S3A1H33 i 3 WW md k AM 4 v'w p Admiral Hil engce ter Senator Miliikin SANITIZED COPY Admiral Hiilenkoetter SENSWWE INFORMATION DELETED i 11 J i eWator Mi iain Admiral Hillenkoetter 3 Senator Millikin And how manley a Admiral Eilienkoetter Senator Millikin Admiral Billenkoetter Yes sir Senator Miliikin Does that begin to commence to start to represent an adequate intelligence organii zation SANITJZED COPY Admiral Hillen oetier NSITWE DELETED 13 9 Representative Durham We have assumed or course that the German scientists were a great help and aegis- tance in this go back to 19b3 how 8820M W w - - Wf xm f z I 3 1- 32'882004 W 777 e 77 77 3 77 mm- 37 3 - 1 eeAiHeev Hi iv easnmouei haw NM 5 EC RH 1553 does that get inte the picture Evidently the FUSgiang were emert enough to etert off this thing Annirel ille hoe ter I think that they ere and I think that any time that we take the View here that the Russian seientiete are dumb or eemething we are just deluding eurselves because I think some of the Russian scientists were up among the number one people and they alweye have been Senater Millikin I am not challenging that I am challenging the feet that we apparently don't have the remetest idea of What they are doing until after they- heve done it and I am net so much interested in what has happened but I am interested in how bad we are going to muff future develepmente Representative Jackson Right altng that same line I was wandering the infermation that we had earlier this year is that they wouldn t have a bomb until 1951 or 1952 Admiral Billenkeett r In 1950 too Representative Jackson The report came up here in July that there had been a change a rather sudden change and we got a report along in July that there 3 had been a revision in lbe calculations and that recollection and I W n 77rm'7 If kJ f b d i k 55 recollect it earlier in the ye 1853 along in Fearuary or March or eomething the committee rye ajvieed that they shamed have it by 1952 and you were giving the number 0f bombs they would have and so on an that Was if they had it by 1952 or 1953 What was t reason for the sudden revision in the celculatlons as to ween they would have it I am not being critical Admiral Hillenkoetter We Just got more infor matien and they were going aleng faster than we had ex- pected er they had etarted earlier Representative There was quite 8 Jump there from the information that we had in the spring Senator Millikin v v rm qu'ywrv A a - - ew e w gv g fg k Admiral Hillenkoetter Senator Millikin Then you did revise your esti- mates berere the eXploeion Admiral Hillenkcetter Yes sir k Senator Millikin That there would be an explosion t this year Wm -- 55 ERR wwm wmkw vim gs - 'id 93 y%3 Stsieesv wesoxive Bel 1V 1a y hfjk Admiral hillen See ter 1 1 ye still 591d i 1 1950 hepresehtetive Jackson They sent a hemorsndum down here The Chairmen I will read it It is dated July 1 1949 The Joint Nuclear Intelligence Committee makes the following estimate on the statue of the USSR atomic energy project a a Oh the 1 Jennery report it was stated that the earliest possible date by which the USSR might be expected to produce an atomic bomb Wes midul950 and the most probable date was mid 1953 The information now sVailable substantiates these dates in general although new information indicating one method which the Soviets are follow- ing suggests that their first atomic bomb cannot be completed before mid 1951 In other words they said the probable date was 1953 and the possible date was 1950 and the most probable date was midw1951 Senator Millikin That is a very bad mid estimate as late as July or this year 1 Representative fie is reading from the 6 - 7 l 882 Liw 1mm Lime Lg DDT SE w The airmen No this is July 1 NO that is January retort true I an Quoting from the January 1 report You see the January 1 report stated that the earliest poeeible date by which the Russians mi De expected to produce a bomb was mid 1950 and the most obeele date was mid 1953 Theh it says that the information new no earthe substantiates these dates in general although new informatien indicating one method w ich the Soviets are following suggests that their first bomb cannot be completed before mid-1951 Senator Millikin I repeat my suggestion that it in a very erroneous estimate as of January 1 1949 Senator Hiekenleeper As of July 1 you mean Senator Millikin As of July 1 or JanUary 1 Representative Jackson Our military plans were all predicated on this 1952 date or 1951 Senator Millikin Our diplomatic plans and the whele complexion has been predicated on having enough room to werk out solutions and that is what makes it so serious that we muffed it New I would like to ask about materiel going into t Russia We were that there was very careful iflii nto there to determine Es gjz riff 22 pr Vale A 882004 bus ec Ad iral llovakia Senator And I am not I am talking Admiral Senator I am talking filters and that stuff Admiral solves sir Senator try which we build up for Admiral Senator idn t know about it 3 might so concerned 14 V 1856 muakin and working on Where have they Hillenkoetter From Yaokimov in Rillikin Does the stuff originate there going to talk about fissionaole material about the industrial material I Hillenkoetter That is the ore sir Millikin I am not talking about the ore about the equipment the Valves the the rest or it Where have they gotten Eillonkoetter Most of it they made them Millikin They have built up the indus- have always estimated that they could not a number or years ahead of this time Hillenkoetter Yes sir Millikin They have done that and we Wall what are we going to do now to keep from getting caught that bad orfmbaae in the future Admiral We mmv- m- v7 wy T- do the best we can 5% WW -w m w 71 n m- j T v zw r er-v Vuu - SBAIHUHV wvnoxiva 3H1 iv naadooeda' fw wwthe information We would desire it more than anybody else to get all of the information deoator Killikin What is there that we can do to help you get it Is there any deficiency in organii zation that can be supplied by Congress Admiral Eillenkoetter No sir There is one thing that is a deficiency and it would help us is the fact tiat in yesterday morning a newspaper they gave out that General Bradley had oeen before a closed session in the Appropriations Committee and said that the Russians had 175 diviaions and this and that and every time anything like that comes out the security etepa against us are just increased that much more and it makes us do a lot more work Senator Millikin I share your worry entirely and I saw where Drew Pearson was talking about the hydrogen bomb last night Representative Price That was in the artidle that was released from Paris supposed to be coming from the fictitious Colonel Selof Representative Jackson He said that we were working on the hydrogen bomb I heard the broadcast and I interpreted it as saying that we were working on this eomoalled super ho that is what discouraged 85409 iw 7o 15m i 1- 3 2M 1 L- I A xix8 8 8 8 8 SBA 33888981888 3783mm 73884 om 737612 77 CO 35983 me very much Representative Price It developed from that other article The Cheiroes There has been a great deal in the press and megezihe articles in great number about the poteihilitiee of a super-weapon I am not saying that he did not have information that was given to him that he shoul n t8have gotten that I don't know but I merely cite that as a fact that I could give you a dozen references on that Isn't that right Admiral Hillenkoetter There has been a lot in the press on a super-homb of some sort The Chairman Then of course it doesn't take any wiee man to deduct that we are not trying to do that or get there as fast as we can which leads me to this observation Admiral I certainly hope and I know bet cause I have talked with you privately that you agree with me that' he detection or progress upon the super- weaponfis of the greateet and utmost importance to us Because frankly if they should get it and we should not have it to say nothing of us having it or not havinglit at the time it might well mean the difference between our existence as a nation and not existing Admiral Hinenl oel-ealwhat is right 7 7 SEGR Em rn r My '8 er n av 3333 N Hi 533 4 x wi 332333333 77 f Jgr 7 22 The 13333 You are bearing a very very heavy responsibility $631331 Hillenkoetter I haven t slackoo down on trying to get any more i fo 033% tion air We have in- creased as much 33 we can and given it high priorities 93d_everythi3g else and we are trying to get all we The Chairman Now Aomiral that 18 all that I can say to you Are there any further questions Senator Millikin I Just get no comfort out of anything that the Aomiral has said to us We have not had an organization adequate to know what is going on in the past and he gives me no assurance that we are going to have one in the future Admiral Hillenkoettor There is no way of getting an organization like thgt We could put 10 000 peOple in Russia and there is no assurance that we would have all of the information that we have that you would be certain of it I couldn't take the responsibility of saying that you can give us 100 000 33d say that we would definitely know what they were going to do and when thoy were going to produce a bomb This thing doesn't work that way It is not a a thousand people will 3 a 8 2333333333 Wm mxm w' 8 gm i Wiwf mm 7wit aix 0888 ML 2 6 2% ng 62 n i 4840 do well ay 8 1 do ten times as well Senator iillikin I not suggesting that I suggept the aybe one good man a qualified observer wig 08 or 100 000 that you are talaiag about Admiral Hillenkoetter I think that that is right Senator killikin SANITEED COPY DELETED Admiral Hillenkoette Representative Hellfield Mr Chairman I think that it might be well to call the attention of the Committee to the fact that your organization has only been in existence about two and a half years and that you had 60 start from the ground floor in building up a foreign service am it was testified at the time that SANDS COPY IVE ION DELETED 318W W 333004Wl 75 rw yw raw-y -w m 5Aw If - r7 amt Lv ammuuwi i 588mm wrwlu 1 12 2 J 7 m we 84st i mm7mw W- 5 2 a Kw 232m ma 2 W2 Mun AGW COPY to me like while I realize that we haven't hgi perfect preaiption of future events It seems WV 8FOR888108 S i 53 Admiral Hillenkoetter We are not trying to excuse ourselves but being only in existence for two years HEEB COPY ENSIWVE ON BELETED 1 Representative Helifield You en t order a piece ef intelligence out of like you order groceriee in the warning A miral Hillenkoetter It is a little difficult and it is much were difficult getting intelligence out from there than they get from here 3mm COW Representative BGlifield INFORMATIGN DELETED Admiral No air 8 882004 GHJ w-wvw 22 My r fqvw w - yaw '4 T'Tq wymw 1 SANETTZED COPY TNFORMATION DELETED SANTT ETIZED COPY SENSITIVE WW W is f g i Representative Hoiifield 7 i lhdmiral Representative Eclifieid There is no such thing as a wide diversification of information in the Soviet Union There are cnly a few newspaj era and tr ey print Just what they want them_tq khow and the freedoa flow of information is nothing like it is here You are up against a terrific Job and I am not trying to excuse it but I am trying to reason the thing out Admiral We are not asking for ex cuses we are trying to do the very best we can and we say it is not that we haven t been in existence' Senator Knowland Might I ask a ueetion Just to follow up what Senator Millikin had asked here and that is I certainly recognize all or the problem that you have facing you but I would like to pursue thia one point and that 13 is there anything from the point of View of the Congress that the Congress can do in the way of funds or authorWMo not now have ug 88200 4 75 QWJW a - - awn53A Haey 3H1 iv oaoneoeda 9- wadeecn t that you need eeo lem of placing the agente and correlating the information I merely Want to De certain that from tfe Concressio--l point I of View there is nothing that you need I have suprorted the Central Intelligence Act when it wee before the Congress and I have euerorted the approprietione for it but I would like to know if there is anything that you need rem the Congres which you heven t received Admiral Hillenkoetter Net a thing air a The Chairman Except to keep our mouths shut Admiral Hillenkeetter It is not as easy as that and if we knew any way that Congress could help us to get absolute information we would be up here and wOuld have been up here a long time ago asking for it Representative Durham Of course in 19b we were allies of Russia and at that time was there any ex change at all of military information between the ear vices of our country and the services of Russia Admiral Hillenkoetter Well the CIA didn t exist in 19h3 and whether there was any exchange of information I don t know Representative Durham Di n t they get it by exutive order 2' rs-131w apt tn r-m w-z- I m Wyn83A mew mew we 3H1 iv aamooedar WW 3an vi 2 2 66 7 WSEGRETM Admiral Hillehkoetter That Va tee and on the military things Whether there was any interchange be- useie er net I don t know I Was in the Pacific and I don t know thetfer there Was any interchange at all Representative Durham I would assume that the records had been gone over as far as information is concerned and yen could bese some opinions on it in the development 0 this atomic bomb back in those days Admiral Hillehkoetter Well there was a Russian mission over here en there was a Russian mission in Alaska and certainly the Canadian spy case was right from therethe United States so unquestionably they got some information there sir Senater Millikin When did we start our atemic energy werk in this country Admiral Killenkoetter I don t know that air The Chairmen It was in 1942 Senater Millikin It was prior to that time Senator Hickenlooper The Manhattan District was set Up and General Groves took charge in September of 19122 and Oopenheieeth Din Loe Alamoe in about August 36123934 quw - 13 22- 2 pl 494 6'2 Senator Miliikin Subsequent to that tite unti we became angry vith each other there was a lot of exehehge between our scientists and the Seviet s Admiral Eilienkoetter Yes sir Senater Miliikin And ear scientists had no netice of the developeente in Russia which you now say were ahead of the time that we estimated Admiral Hilleneoetterx I don't Pnow as they would know they were going t0 werk on the bomb sir Senator Millikin I didn t get your answer Admiral Hillenkoetter They had no notice that they were working on a heme They were working on the idea of etemie energy Senator Hillikin We knew that but we had no information that they were actually working and approach- ing the peint where they would have an explosion Admiral Hillenkoetter No sir Senator Millikin Can we conclude this that Russia has set up such a eecurity system that we are badly handicapped in trying to find out what she is doing is that right Admiral Hillenkoetter That is right unquestionw ably sir 533 333% 3333313333 3133 iv 333300333 Wm 3 1V1 in I 33 QWSEC RE this country Admiral Hillenkoetter Very definitely gee Jackson This bill 83d the legis- lation that we passed allowing a certain number of eliene that has been quite a bit of help Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes Representative Jackson The quote allotted there is adequate Admiral Hillenkoetter Yes more than adequate Representative Jackson You do not need any amendment to that Aemirel Hillenkoetter That is right The Chairman Admiral of course we appreciate the top secret character of your testimony here today and you need not be concerned about it I think thet without any fear at all I can underwrite this committee and you know that there has never been any leak of information that has come out or here and I am sure that there won t be We realize that in order to get this kind of information which we must have that it is imperative that security be Just maintained rat proof and it will be I feel certain of that Now we have one a gentlemen that it Jq 38 839 934 zi W 3 essxsoev tvuolirs 3H1 i WMWW 1%me -- 'o es - i Ont e 69 is imperative that to take up out it is not with you I Hun- 0 Admiral Whereupoo Admiral Hillenhoetter and his party were i excused from the room CONSTRUCTION RIDER OK APPROPRIATION MEASURES The Chairman Now gentlemen you reooilect that we hove discussed on three or four occasions this busi mess of the construction rider We discussed it the other day and I suggested that the two foregoing pro- visos the restrictive provisos should have no appli cation with respect to technical production facilities which includes immediate construction or whose immedis- te continuation of construction the Commission certi fies to the Director of the Bureau of the Budget to be necessary to the national defense and security I brought it up and Senator HickenlooPer suggested that the Director of the Bureau of the Budget should agree with the certification and then the work should go Now the Commission has made representations of a serious nature to me about the delay that will be caused by these provisions my reopensibility qt 8820054 SECRET VMX - WVOf vw jww wwn-V- w-vw This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu