UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION AF-01 KIGALI 01218 01 OF 02 221503Z INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01 INR-00 10-19 H-01 01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01 SS-00 SP-00 SNP-00 045W OASY-00 L-03 PM-02 TRSE-00 RELEASED IN PART Bi 1 4 D DODE-00 EUR-01 HA-09 ADS-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 RPCS-01 PRS-01 P-01 USIE-00 RPE-01 T-00 AA02A4 221504Z 38 O 221501Z MAR 93 FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3382 INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY PARIS USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE ECJ5-P ETCC USMISSION GENEVA USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 01218 E O 12356 DECL OADR TAGS PINS PGOV PREL MOPS RW SUBJECT PEACE AND POLITICS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL KIGALI 01218 01 OF 02 221503Z PAGE 02 REF KIGALI 01116 1 CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT 2 SUMMARY THE JOINT MEETING OF THE PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER WITH SENIOR MILITARY OFFICERS PRODUCED A POSITIVE COMMUNIQUE BUT ADDITIONAL WORRIES FOR THE PRIME MINISTER ABOUT SOME HARDLINE OFFICERS THE NUMBER AND PERSISTENCE OF RUMORS OF A POSSIBLE COUP INDICATE THAT MANY RWANDANS SHARE HIS CONCERN THE MINISTER OF DEFENSE DEEMS A COUP MOST UNLIKELY TO UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY HARRY R MELONE CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL REASON 1 4 D DECLASSIFYAFTER 22MAdI2013 DATE CASE ID 11 JUL 2006 200601472 E2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SUCCEED WE AGREE END SUMMARY THE PRESIDENT AND THE MILITARY 3 THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENT'S MEETING WITH THE MILITARY HIGH COMMAND TOOK PLACE ON MARCH 17 THE MINISTER OF DEFENSE PUT OUT A WARM AND FUZZY COMMUNIQUE FOLLOWING THE MEETING BUT OTHER SOURCES REPORT SIGNIFICANT TENSIONS WITHIN THE MILITARY AND BETWEEN THE MILITARY AND THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP MIMISTER OF DEFENSE GASANA CONFIRMED PRIVATELY HIS ASSESSMENT THAT THE MEETING WAS USEFUL AND PRODUCTIVE AWD SEEMED PLEASED THAT MILITARY OFFICERS HAD CALLED ON THE PRIME MINISTER AND THE PRESIDENT TO MEET MORE OFTEN 4 FOLLOWING THE MARCH 17 MEETING THE RADIO ANNOUNCED THAT THE PRESIDENT HAD EXPRESSED HIS APPRECIATION TO THE PRIME MINISTER FOR PARTICIPATING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL KIGALI 01218 01 OF 02 221503Z PAGE 03 IN THE MEETING THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE CAN REMEMBER THE PRESIDENT SAYING ANYTHING NICE TO THE PRIME MINISTER IN PUBLIC WHEN I CONGRATULATED THE PRIME MINISTER ON THIS BREAKTHROUGH ON FEBRUARY 18 HE OFFERED SOME INSIGHTS ON THE MEETING ITSELF THE PRESIDENT HAD A RIGHT TO BE GRATEFUL TO THE PRIME MINISTER BECAUSE HE PERMITTED HIM TO CARRY ALL OF THE QUESTIONS ON THE PEACE PROCESS AND THE PRIME MINISTER TOOK ALL OF THE HEAT THERE ARE SOME MILITARY 5 ACCORDING TO Y CRITICAL OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICERS WHO WE FOR CAPITULATING TO THE RPF AND NOT FIGHTING ON COUP RUMORS 6 RUMORS OF A COUP HAVE BEEN FLOATING AROUND KIGALI FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS PRESUMABLY BY CIVILIAN AND MILITARY HARDLINERS WHO FEAR REPRISALS SHOULD THE UNCLASSIFIED B1 B1 UNCLASSIFIED RPF TAKE POWER BY FORCE THE SCENARIO DERIVED FROM EVIDENCE IN A TRACT A CDR COMMUNIQUE AND A PETITION HAS PLOTTERS SEIZING CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT ARRESTING OR KILLING OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AND THEN CONTINUING NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE RPF FROM A POSITION OF UNITY AND STRENGTH ONE VERSION HAS FRANCE SUPPORTING THE PLOTTERS ANOTHER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL KIGALI 01218 01 OF 02 221503Z PAGE 04 HAS THE HUTU LEADERSHIP OF THE RPF COLLABORATING WITH THE PLOT ONE VERSION HAS HABYARIMANA'S ENTOURAGE SUPPORTING THE NEW ARRANGEMENT ANOTHER DOES NOT TAKE THEM INTO ACCOUNT ALL VERSIONS HAVE PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA DEPARTING GRACEFULLY FOR SOME FOREIGN SHORE 7 WHEN ASKED IF COUP-PLOT RUMORS HAD AFFECTED HIS DESISION NOT TO ATTEND ARUSHA TALKS THE DEFENSE MINISTER INTIMATED TO THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE HAD HEARD SUCH RUMORS HE WAS FIRM HOWEVER IN HIS CONVICTION THAT NO COUP COULD SUCCEED AT THIS TIME EVEN IF SOME OFFICERS WERE DUMB ENOUGH B1 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION AF-01 KIGALI 01218 02 OF 02 221503Z INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01 INR-00 10-19 H-01 01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01 SS-00 SP-00 SNP-00 OASY-00 L-03 PM-02 TRSE-00 DODE-00 EUR-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 PRS-01 P-01 USIE-00 T-00 UNCLASSIFIED HA-09 NSCE-00 RPCS-01 RPE-01 UNCLASSIFIED 045W AA029D 221503Z 38 0 221501Z MAR 93 FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3383 INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY PARIS USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE ECJ5-P ETCC USMISSION GENEVA USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 KIGALI 01218 E O 12356 DECL OADR TAGS PINS PGOV PREL MOPS RW SUBJECT PEACE AND POLITICS TO TRY HE SAID THE ARMY ALTHOUGH APOLITICAL IN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL KIGALI 01218 02 OF 02 221503Z PAGE 02 PRINCIPLE REFLECTS THE DIVISIONS IN THE COUNTRY IS NOT A MONOLITHIC BLOCK AND MOST ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT THEY CANNOT REOPEN THE WAR WITHOUT UNACCEPTABLE RISK OF FURTHER DEFEATS 8 A JOURNALIST SOURCE A STAUNCH CRITIC OF THE GOVERNMENT AND PERPETUAL PESSIMIST DISCOUNTED COUP RUMORS HE HAD FOUND SO DISTURBING A WEEK EARLIER ON GROUNDS THAT THE SUPPOSED MILITARY PLOTTERS HAD BEEN NEUTRALIZED HE NOTED THAT THE ALLEGED CHIEF PLOTTER COL BAGOSORA DIRECTOR OF CABINET AT THE DEFENSE MINISTRY HAS BEEN SENT OFF TO ARUSHA AND COL NSABIMANA CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE ARMY IS OUT OF ACTION FOR SEVERAL MONTHS FOLLOWING A SERIOUS CAR ACCIDENT NO EVIDENCE OF FOUL PLAY HERE 9 COMMENT SPECULATION ABOUT A POSSIBLE COUP SEEMS TO HAVE A WEAK FACTUAL BASE AND IS PROBABLY FAR-FETCHED IN CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES BUT THE RUMORS DO REFLECT THE NERVOUSNESS AND UNCERTAINTY IN KIGALI UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED AS MANY BELIEVE THEY ARE NOW LAUNCHED ON A LAST CHANCE EFFORT FOR PEACE IN THE CURRENT ARUSHA NEGOTIATIONS END COMMENT FLATEN CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu