UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 KIGALI 03188 01 OF 04 3006012 ACTION INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 CIAE-OO C-01 DOEE-00 EB-01 EUR-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-19 ADS-00 NEA-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-02 P-01 SNP-OO SP-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 DTC-01 RPE-01 CORE-00 3006022138 2715122 AUG 93 ZDK CITE H03 4038 AND ALL OTHERS FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4550 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA AMEMBASSY CAIRO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM AMEMBASSY DAKAR AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY LAGOS AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TUNIS AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 KIGALI 03188 01 OF 04 3006012 I TIA SECTION 01 OF 04 KIGALI 03188 STATE FOR AFIC AFIRA AND IOIPEACEKEEPING YAOUNDE AND LILONGWE FOR E O 12356 DECLIOADR TAGS PREL AORC MASS UN OAU RW SUBJECT UM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HEAD DISCUSSES THOUGHTS ON UN INVOLVEMENT IN RWANDA REFS A B STATE 250795 C USUN 3985 D ADDIS ABABA 5645 1 CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT 2 SUMMARY UN RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HEAD TOLD IBEVIEW AUTHORITY chErEs DarstSinor ReBieW UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05052014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 CHARGE HIS FINDINGS POINT TOWARD A WHOLLY UN PHASED PEACEKEEPING OPERATION PKO WITH SEVERAL COMPONENTS PEAKING IN SIZE DURING THE FORCE PROCESS THEN TAPERING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY HE WORRIES THAT A FORCE SMALLER THAN THE OR DELAYED IN ARRIVAL COULD JEOPARDIZE A POTENTIALLY SUCCESSFUL PKO WHAT FORCES CAN BE MOVED IN WHEN TO ASSURE THE PROCESS STAYS ON TRACK IN THE WEEKS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD 80 A GOVERNMENT CAN BE PUT IN PLACE IS A MAJOR PREOCCUPATION HE ASKED THAT THE US URGE BOTH SIDES TO REMAIN PATIENT AMD CALM PENDING UN START-UP END SUMMARY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 KIGALI 03188 01 OF 04 3006012 3 CHARGE MET 8 26 WITH BRIG GEN ROMERO DALLAIRE TO EXCHANGE VIEWS ON UM INVOLVEMENT IN A PEACEKEEPING OPERATION IN RWANDA CHARGE CONVEYED U S POSITION AS OUTLINED REF B THE GENERAL WAS RELUCTANT TO DISCUSS SPECIFICS OF HIS FINDINGS IN ORDER NOT TO PREEMPT HIS REPORT TO THE UN SECRETARY GENERAL OR COMPROMISE THE DECISION-MAKING AUTHORITY NEVERTHELESS HE DISCUSSED BROAD OUTLINES OF HIS THINKING AT THIS STAGE AND EXPRESSED FEARS FOR THE SUCCESS SHOULD THE UN SKIMP ON RESOURCES ALSO PRESENT WERE ISEL RIVERO UN POLITICAL DEPARTMENT AND FLORENCE BARRILLON-POMES SPECIAL ASSISTANT 4 PARAMETERS THE GENERAL SAID HE WILL RECOMMEND TO THE UNSYG A PKO FOR RWANDA THAT IS BUT GIVEN THE CONSTRAINTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND THE NEEDS ON THE GROUND HE WILL PRESENT OPTIONS TO THE UNISYG A CONVINCING ARGUMENT FOR WHAT HE DEEMS THE OPERATION BELOW THAT HE SAID THE UN WILL BE ON ITS OWN 5- A WINNER GEN DALLAIRE SAID THE RWANDAN PKO COULD BE A WINNER IF IT IS APPROACHED PROPERLY AND AT A PACE THAT KEEPS THE RISK FACTOR LOW IF FORCE ARRIVAL IS DELAYED HE SAID OR IF THE OPERATION IS SHORT-CHANGED ON RESOURCES FAILURE COULD BE A REAL POSSIBILITY- HE SAID HE FOUND GOOD WILL ON BOTH SIDES TO MAKE THE PEACE PROCESS WORK THAT THE CEASEFIRE WORKS WITH ONLY 50 NMOG OBSERVERS IS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05l2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 PAGE 04 KIGALI 03188 01 OF 04 3006012 EVIDENCE OF THIS GOOD WILL 6 RISKS EXIST NEVERTHELESS HE SAID RISKS EXIST HE EXPRESSED PARTICULAR PREOCCUPATION WITH RISKS IN THE INITIAL STAGE OF THE PROCESS WHICH HE CONSIDERS WHAT WILL HAPPEN HE ASKED WHEN THE UN FORCE FAILS TO ARRIVE BY SEPTEMBER 10 THE LOCALLY AGREED MILESTONE FOR THE GOVERNMENT IN HOW LONG WILL THE PATIENCE OF THE TWO SIDES LAST BEFORE ONE OR THE OTHER BREAKS THE HE SAID HIS TEAM IS DOING A RISK ASSESSMENT TO DETERMINE WHAT RESOURCES ARE NEEDED AND WHEN IN ORDER TO ENSURE AGAINST COLLAPSE OF THE PROCESS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 KIGALI 03188 02 OF 04 2715292 ACTION AF-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 C-01 OASY-OO DODE-OO DOEE-OO EB-01 EUR-01 HA-09 H-01 TEDE-OO INR-00 IO-19 L-03 NEA-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 SNP-OO SP-00 88-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-OO DTC-01 2716002 38 2715122 AUG 93 FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4551 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDP WMMBA PRIORITY 1366 AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA AMEMBASSY CAIRO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM AMEMBASSY DAKAR AMEMBASSY KAMPALA UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No C05517243 Date 05 05 2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05l05 2014 AMEMBASSY LAGOS AMEMBASSY LONDON AM EM BASSY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 KIGALI 03188 02 OF 04 2715292 AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TUNIS AM EM BASSY YAOUNDE USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE I A SECTION 02 OF 04 KIGALI 03188 STATE FOR AFIC AFIRA AND YAOUNDE AND LILONGWE FOR E O 12356 TAGS PREL AORC MASS UN OAU RW SUBJECT UM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HEAD DISCUSSES BEFORE IT EVEN GETS STARTED HE BELIEVES THAT FINDING A WAY TO PUT THE GOVERNMENT IN PLACE EARLY WILL BE CRUCIAL 7 PHASED OPERATION THE GENERAL TALKED ABOUT A THREE-PHASE OPERATION WITH THE NUMBER OF ASSETS PEAKING DURING THE PROCESS OF PHASE II ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL WAS DELIBERATELY VAGUE IN DESCRIBING HIS VISION CHARGE UNDERSTOOD THE FOLLOWING I WOULD BEGIN SEPTEMBER 10 AND EXTEND UNTIL SUFFICIENT UN ASSETS WERE DEPLOYED TO RWANDA TO PERMIT THE DISENGAGEMENT PROCESS TO BEGIN ONCE A UN RESOLUTION AND BUDGET WERE APPROVED A COMMANDER COULD BE NAMED AND BE IN COUNTRY WITH AM ADVANCE PARTY POSSIBLY WITHIN ABOUT TWO WEEKS FORCES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE BORROWED FROM ANOTHER UN OPERATION IN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 KIGALI 03188 02 OF 04 2715292 ORDER TO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO BE PUT IN PLACE THIS THE GENERAL BELIEVES IS THE CRITICAL PHASE - PHASE II WOULD BEGIN WHEN A UN FORCE REASONABLE ENOUGH TO BEGIN THE DISENGAGEMENT PROCESS ARRIVED IN COUNTRY HE SAID THREE MONTHS WOULD BE THE MINIMUM UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 TIME NEEDED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A UN RESOLUTION FOR THE MAIN BODY TF A UN FORCE TO BE DEPLOYED TO RWANDA THE NUMBER OF FORCES WOULD PEAK DURING THIS PHASE WHICH WOULD LAST UNTIL THE FORCE INTEGRATION WAS COMPLETE ABOUT NINE MONTHS OUT - PHASE BEGINNING ONCE FORCE INTEGRATION WAS COMPLETED WOULD SEE FORCES REDUCED POSSIBLY LEAVING ONLY AN OBSERVATION FORCE UNTIL THE END OF THE 22-MONTH TRANSITION PERIOD 8 BEGINNING AND END IN RESPONSE TO A QUERY THE GENERAL SAID THAT THE END OF THE OPERATION WAS CLEAR 2 MONTHS INTO THE PROCESS WHEN THE PEACE ACCORD CALLS FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO END AND NATIONAL ELECTIONS TO BE HELD THE GENERAL NOTED THAT HAVING ASSETS IN PLACE AT EACH POINT IN THE PROCESS MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THE PUSH THE RWANDANS HARD TO STICK TO THEIR PROPOSED TIMETABLE 9 RELATION TO THE ASKED WHAT THE ROLE OF THE WOULD BE THE GENERAL SAID IT WOULD HOLD THE FORT UNTIL THE UN COULD COME IN AFTER THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 KIGALI 03188 02 OF 04 2715292 ARRIVAL OF THE UN THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER OAU COMMAND STRUCTURE THE OAU TROOPS WOULD THEN BE WITHDRAWN OR FOLDED INTO THE UN OPERATION HE HINTED AN ACCEPTAMCE OF THE LONG-STANDING OAU PROPOSAL FIRST SUGGESTED DURING THE ARUSHA TALKS FOR OAU PERSONNEL TO BE SECONDED TO KEY POSITIONS OF A UN-LED PKO TO GAIN EXPERIENCE FOR FUTURE OAU PKOS CHARGE PROBED WHETHER AN NMOG THINKING OF THE EGYPTIAN OFFER MIGHT BE ABLE TO SERVE AS THE KIGALI FORCE THAT COULD ENABLE THE GOVERNMENT TO BE INSTALLED HE SAID ANY SUCH FORCE WOULD HAVE TO BE UN-LED N VA COMPONENTS OF THE OPERATION CHARGE ASKED ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE HUMANITARIAN ASPECT OF A UN CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05l05 2014 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 KIGALI 03188 03 OF 04 2715312 ACTION AF-O1 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 0-01 OASY-OO DODE-OO DOEE-OO EB-01 EUR-01 TEDE-OO IO-19 L-O3 ADS-00 NEA-01 NSAE-OO NSCE-OO OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-02 P-01 SNP-OO SP-OO SS-OO TRSE-OO T-OO USIE-OO RPE-01 CORE-00 E7B757 2715322138 271512Z AUG 93 FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4552 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA AMEMBASSY CAIRO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM AMEMBASSY DAKAR AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY LAGOS AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TUNIS AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 KIGALI 03188 03 OF 04 2715312 I A SECTION 03 OF 04 KIGALI 03188 STATE FOR AFIRA AND YAOUNDE AND LILONGWE FOR E O 12356 TAGS PREL AORC MASS UN OAU RW SUBJECT UM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HEAD DISCUSSES OPERATION TO THE MILITARY ASPECT THE GENERAL SAID THAT HE WOULD NOT BE PROPOSING AN ALL-SOLDIER EXERCISE BUT ONE WITH SEVERAL COMPONENTS ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT WANT TO BE SPECIFIC CHARGE DEDUCED HE ENVISIONS AT LEAST FOUR COMPONENTS A FORCE TO UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 MANAGE THE ACTIVITIES MILITARY OBSERVERS FOR THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE TO BE EBTABLISHED BETWEEN THE TWO ASSEMBLY ZONES A CIVILIAM POLICE COMPONENT AMD A HSNAMITARIAMAXASSISTANT COMPOMES REINSTALLATION OF REFUGEES HE STRESSED THAT HIS RECOMMENDATIONS WOULD BE FOR AND LEVELS OF PHASED INVOLVEMENT IN ALL COMPONENTS HE SAID THE HUMANITARIAN COMPONENT MIGHT CONSIST SOLELY OF A COORDINATOR AS THERE IS ALREADY A WELL-DEVELOPED UN-NGO-IGO NETWORK FOR DELIVERING AID TO THE DISPLACED THE GENDARMERIE AND THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM ARE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT HE SAID SO THERE WILL HAVE TO BE SOME ASSISTANCE IN BUILDING THE SECURITY CAPABILITY OF THE NEW GENDARMERIE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 KIGALI 03188 03 OF 04 2715312 11 IDENTIFICATION OF SITES CHARGE ASKED IF HIS TEAM HAD IDENTIFIED SITES FOR CANTONMENT OF WEAPONS AND ASSEMBLY OF TROOPS HE SAID THEY HAD BUT THEY WOULD BE PRESENTED AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE UNISYG AN ADVANCE PARTY WOULD BE ABLE TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE TWO SIDES ON THE PROPOSALS 12 PHASE I CRITICAL THE GENERAL REITERATED THAT IN HIS VIEW A RWANDA PEACEKEEPING OPERATION HAD A GOOD CHANCE OF SUCCEEDING BUT IN ORDER FOR IT TO BE SUCCESSFUL HE SAID SOME RESOURCES MUST BE COMMITTED HIS POLITICAL AIDE OBSERVED THAT THE ANGOLAN OPERATION FAILED BECAUSE IT HAD BEEN SHORT-CHANGED ON RESOURCES THE GENERAL SAID PHASE I WILL BE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL A VIABLE WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD SO THAT THE GOVERNMENT CAM TAKE OFFICE AND SO THAT THE TWO SIDES CAN GET THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE A UN FORCE IS PRESENT WITHOUT HAVING THE THE PROCESS 13 APPEAL FOR HELP THE GENERAL APPEALED TO THE US TO HELP KEEP THE TWO SIDES PATIENT AND CALM AND THE PROCESS ON TRACK PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN INTERNATIONAL FORCE HE SAID THE IS PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS TO MOVE QUICKLY ON THE RWANDAN ISSUE BUTI HE SAID THE UN JUST CANNOT MEET THE LOCALLY AGREED TIMETABLE THE UN NEEDS HELP IN CONVINCING THE TWO SIDES OF THE GOOD FAITH AND IN KEEPING THINGS CALM IN THE INTERIM CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No C05517243 Date 05 05 2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 KIGALI 03188 03 OF 04 2715312 14 COMMENT IT IS CLEAR FROM WHAT THE GENERAL SAID THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS IN HIS REPORT WILL INCLUDE SPECIFIC NUMBERS ATTACHED TO SPECIFIC TIME FRAMES FOR AN OPERATION THAT WILL HAVE A CLEAR BEGINNING AND A CLEAR END HIS WORRY IS LEGITIMATE HOW LONG CAN THB TWO RWANDAN FORCES REMAIN DEPLOYED IN POSITIONS ON OPPOSITE SIDES OF A NARROW DMZ WITHOUT HAVING SOMETHING GO AW XSHOW LONG CAM A GRIN POISED TO TAKE OFFICE BEFORE POLITICAL MANIPULATION SETS IN TO DERAIL EVEN THOUGH WE ARE CONVINCED THAT RWANDANS WANT THEIR PEACE PROCESS TO WORK WE DO NOT BELIEVE THEY CAN REMAIN INDEFINITELY IN ANTICIPATORY LIMBO WITHOUT SOMETHING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 KIGALI 03188 04 OF 04 2715322 ACTION AF-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 C-01 OASY-OO DOEE-OO EB-01 EUR-01 H-01 TEDE-OO INR-OO IO-19 ADS-00 NEA-01 NSAE-OO NSCE-OO OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-OZ P-01 SNP-OO SP-OO TRSE-OO T-OO USIE-OO DTC-OI RPE-01 CORE-00 2715332138 2715122 AUG 93 FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4553 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA AMEMBASSY CAIRO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM AMEMBASSY DAKAR AMEMBASSY KAMPALA UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 AMEMBASSY LAGOS AMEMBASSY LONDON AM EM BASSY AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TUNIS AM EM BASSY YAOUN DE USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 KIGALI 03188 04 OF 04 2715322 0 TIA SECTION 04 OF04 KIGALI 03188 STATE FOR AFIC AND IOIPEACEKEEPING YAOUNDE AND LILONGWE FOR E O 12356 TAGS PREL AORC MASS UN OAU RW SUBJECT UM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HEAD DISCUSSES HAPPENING THAT COULD SERIOUSLY TEST THEIR RESOLVE TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE THE GENERAL STRIKES US AS A BRIGHT NON-NONSENCE SORT OF GUY WHOSE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR HELPING RWANDA HELP ITSELF SHOULD BE GIVEN SERIOUS CONSIDERATION HE STILL INTENDS TO PRESENT HIS REPORT TO THE SECRETARY GENERAL FOLLOWING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND END COMMENT LEADER CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2014-01302 Doc No 005517243 Date 05 05 2014 This document is from the holdings of 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