200267650 I FOR CIA REVIEW PROGRAM $555355 RELEASE A5 SANITIZED - sme nee 51 I SP ECIAL 13 September 195' NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER 11 8 57 EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE CONCERNING SOVIET I ICBM FLIGHT TESTS Submitted by the DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE The following intelligence organizations participated in the prepa- ration oi this estimate The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State the Army the Navy the Air Force The Joint Staff and the Atomic Energy Commission Coneurred in by the INTELLIGENCE AD W50 RY COMMITTEE on 18 September 195 Concurring were the Special Assistant In telligence Department of State the Assistant Chief of-Staii Intelli- gence Department of the Army the Director of Naval Intelligence the Assistant Chief of StaIf Intelligence the Deputy Director for Intelligence The Joint Staff and the Atomic Energy Commission Representative to the IAC The Assistant DirectOr Federal Bureau of Investigation abstained the subject being outside of his jurisdie lion 600267650 CENTRAL LNTELLIGENCE AGENCY DISSEMINNEION NOTICE i This estimate was disseminated by the Central Intelligence Agency This copy is for the information and use of the recipient indicated on the iront corer and of per- sons under his jurisdiction on a need to know hasis Additional essential dissemination may be authorized by the following of cials within their respective departments a Special Assistant to the Secretary for Intelligence for the Department or State Assistant Chief of Staff for the Department or the Army Director of Naval Intelligence for the Department of the New Director of Intelligence USAF for the Department of the Air Force Deputy Director for Intelligence Joint Staff for the Joint staff Director of Intelligence AEC for the Atomic Energy Commission Assistant to the Director FBI for the Federal Bureau of Investigation Assistant Director for Collection and Dissemination CIA for any other De- partment or Agency 2 This copy may be retained or destmyed by burning in accordance with appli- cable security regulations or returned to the Central Intelligence Agency by arrange ment with the O tce of Collection and Disseniination CIA 3 When an estimate is disseminated overseas the overseas recipients may retain it for 1 period not in excess of one year At the end of this period the estimate should either be destroyed returned to the forwarding agency or permission should he re- quested ol the forwarding agency to retain it in accordance with 22 June 1953 material contains information affecting Defense or the United er the iron - t which in it Tll ortzed person is prohibited by in the within the Title 13 USC Secs i or Wl'lltt Home National Security Council of State or Ilelense coordinating Board iinn n_' liliL tiI l- cfl-Jznl Horror of Investigation 200267650 Cepv No 5 7 18 SeptEmber 1957 SNIE 11-8-57 EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE CONCERNING SOVIET ICBM FLIGHT TESTS CONCLUSIONS 1 The USSR has probably flight tested two intercon- tinental ballistic missile ICBM vehicles the first on 21 August 1957 and the second on '7 September 1957 2 We believe the USSR has the capability to perform such testsg lactivities on the new I Tyura am-Klyuchi range-E Suppo the Soviet statements concerning ICBM flight tests We have no evidence as to the range accuracy or character of the vehicles fired apart from that in the Soviet statements and that which mayr be inferred from the length of the test range segments 3 The USSR is known to have light tested at least 275 ballistic missiles to ranges of about 1'5 150 300 650 and 950 nautical miles on the Kapustin Yar range since mid-1953 including seven tests to a range of approximately 950 nautical miles since 22 June 1957 and two probable multistage tests in May 1957 The USSR has acquired considerable ballistic mis sile experience from this extensive test program and probably has flight tested ICBM components This base of acquired tech- nical knowledge and the high probability that the USSR has at- tached a very high priority to the ICEM leads us to estimate that the USSR is now capable of initiating an ICBM light test program 4 Construction activityr began in mid-1955 on a new bal listic missile test range oi about 3 500 nautical miles length 200267650 between Tyura Tam and l yuchi see Map 3 this range was approaching operationalT'eadiness in the spring of 195 and we believe that by mid August 1957 it could have supported limited missile flight testing 5 Since the late Spring of 1957 both Tyura Tan and Klyuchi have been involved in activity - I 2 'tivity detected an the new that missile flight tests could have OCCurrEda G On 26 August 1957 the official Soviet news agency TASS stated that a super leng-distance intercontinental multistage ballistic rocket was launched a few days ago The tests of the rocket were successful The rocket flew at a very high unprecedented altitude covering a huge distance The rocket landed in the target area On 9 September 195 Khrushchev told Edouard Daladier in Yalta that on 7 September he had personally witnessed the second successful trial of an intercontinental missile While the TASS announcement may have been timed for maximum propaganda effect past Soviet statements of this type have generally been based on actual performance or assured capability C199 93003 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu