-SE CRETCENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY WASHINGTON 25 D C 3 b 1 25Yrs 2 c 18 NOV 1964 M E M O R A N D U M FOR Mr McGeo rge Bundy Sp e c i a l A s s i s t a n t to the P r e s i d e n t T he White H ouse SUBJECT B r iti sh G u i a n a K _____________________ barring a n y ' u nforeseen c i r c u m s t a n c e s b e tween nov and the eleotions on 7 D e c e m b e r w h ich might adversely affect the s ituation a c o a l i t i o n of the o p p o s i t i on parties should win a m a j o r i t y of v otes cast GBP the Peo p l e ' s r r o g t e i i l v e i F l r t y 1 P P P w i l l r e c e i v e a b o u t 40% of the vote the P e o p l e s Nati o n a l Congress PNC about 40% the U n i t e d F o r c e UF about 15% and the Justice P a rty JP about 5% For comparison purposes in the 1961 e lections the PPP received 43% the P N C 41% and the UF 16% It is not p o ssible to gauge a c c u r a t e l y the number of votes the JP will receive This party has been very actively c a m p a i g n i n g In Jagan's strongholds and has had a very high a t t e n d a n c e at its meetings This has been of c o n s i d e r a b l e concern to the PPP which has used hecklers and intimidators to break up these meetings It is possible that the JP may be making more of an impact than is judg e d and may win more than the 5% of the votes which we estimate -------------- -- ----------------------- 1 SANITIZED E 0 13292 Sec 3 5 NLJ O H - 33 0 By 3 _ NARA DatelV3 OOS flpflnrt 3E05GBPZ 2 After the elections and assuming that the PPP has not been returned to officet it is believed that Jagan will play a wait-and-see game for two to three months in the hope that the PNC UF JP coalition will collapse If the coalition proves to be viable and if U S f i n a n c i al support moves swiftly into British Guiana Jagan nay resort to violence in oraer to prevent Burnham from governing and to bring about his downfall 3 The British have currently two battalions in British Guiana Recently two other battalions have been brought into the Caribbean area ostensibly on manuevers One battalion is in British Honduras and the other is in Dominica In the event of violence these two additional battalions could be quickly despatched to British Guiana 4 A copy of this memorandum is being sent to Mr J Harold Shullaw of the Department of State Richflrd Helms Deputy Director for Plans LBJL NSF Intel File Box 5 Folder British Guiana Special File This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu