Information On the results of the meeting of the Expert Analytical Council under the President of the Russian Federation to discuss the political consequences of the deployment of Russian troops into the Chechen republic in order to disarm illegally armed groups on December 27 1994 During the meeting of the members of the Expert Analytical Council under the President of the Russian Federation to discuss the situation in the Chechen Republic and the political developments after the deployment of the Russian forces in Chechnya the following opinions were stated quite explicitly After an objective and in all respects balanced report by the secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation O leg I Lobov on the causes that prompted the Russian leadership to send troops into Chechnya on the current situation in the Chechen Republic after the encirclement of Dudayev's fighters as well as on recent actions by the government of the Russian Federation to provide humanitarian and financial and economic assistance to this republic members of the Expert Analytical Council in their subsequent speeches nearly unanimously took an anti-presidential position Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation G eorgy Satarov distanced himself from the president's position on the need to deploy troops to Chechnya which he only learned about on December 10th He also noted that in his opinion there was a great inconsistency in the actions at all levels of government in the implementation of this policy Saratov also noted that if this is the usual practice of government agencies' work then in the future sooner or later it will lead to the demise of the existing regime in Russia Council member D mitry Volkogonov noted the danger of the conflict spreading to other regions and spoke about the need for negotiations between B Yeltsin and D Dudayev Council member M Masarsky The President and the government of the Russian Federation lost the political initiative in solving the conflict in Chechnya a while back and it was taken up by the Chechen people engaged in arming themselves and this is a civil war Deputy head of the Analytical Center under the President of the Russian Federation and member of the Expert Analytical Council E mil Pain called into question the use of the army in Chechnya that in his opinion will have a negative impact on the outcome of the 1996 presidential election E mil Pain described the plan for the settlement of the situation in Chechnya proposed by the Security Council Shakhray's option as G eorgy Saratov commented as a utopia The invasion by Russian troops Pain emphasized saved Dudayev politically whose power in Chechnya itself was allegedly holding on by a thread According to this political analyst only the negotiating process can lead Russia out of the Chechen crisis otherwise we will face coups political scandals etc Without concessions to Dudayev he concluded any settlement plan in Chechnya would not be successful Council member L eonid Gozman Due to the events in Chechnya the chances of B N Yeltsin's re-election to the post of President of the Russian Federation in 1996 have been reduced to zero He also proposed to approach B N Yeltsin on behalf of the council with a request to not run as a candidate for the post of President of the Russian Federation for a new term Gozman offered to investigate constitutional options for the early removal of B N Yeltsin from performing official duties as the head of state The head of the Analytical Center and member of the Expert Analytical Council M ark Urnov noted the deepening political crisis in the country due to events in Chechnya that had nullified the political chances of the President of the Russian Federation Council member Y uri Karyakin It seems that we are being given the run-around the security structures send obvious disinformation to the president Again it is totally incomprehensible and who is at fault for this situation Council member O tto Latsis It is necessary to abandon all existing plans for resolving the situation in Chechnya and conduct negotiations with Dudayev The President needs to punish all of the perpetrators of the events in Chechnya apparently the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Internal Affairs if this is not done then all responsibility for the outcome of these events will remain with the President himself In Chechnya it was necessary from the very beginning to use only democratic methods of conflict resolution Division head of the Analytical Center and member of the Expert Analytical Council L Smirnyagin The deployment of troops would have been justified if it was immediately followed by a blitzkrieg New forms of negotiations with Chechnya are needed Forcibly and possibly physically removing Dudayev from power would be a disgrace for Russia It is imperative to organize a referendum in Chechnya which would clarify the people's attitudes towards both Dudayev himself and Russia It is also necessary to change the system for making important government decisions i e the decision-making system for the President of the Russian Federation Smirnyagin also noted that the work of the Security Council of the Russian Federation was creating a gloomy impression among Russia's democratic society Minister for the Economy and council member Y evgeny Yasin The cost of the conflict in Chechnya will amount to 5 to 10 trillion rubles per year which is equal to 1% of the GDP For reference IMF loans to Russia amount to a total of 0 7% of the GDP The restoration of the railways in Chechnya will require 200 billion rubles which is 1 3 of the Ministry of Transportation's budget If aid to Chechnya is not suspended for another two to three weeks the plan for the financial stabilization of the Russian economy will go up in smoke Y evgeny Yasin noted that the lack of political planning and absence of an appropriate political campaign before the introduction of troops into Chechnya was a stunning political mistake S ergey Filatov presiding over the Council informed them that the decision to send troops into Chechnya was made by the President also with the influence of the leaders of the republics of the North Caucasus Council members A lexander N Yakovlev A lexander Livshitz and a few others did not speak during the meeting and did not ask for the floor All of the above attests to the fact that the members of the Expert Analytical Council under the President of the Russian Federation do not share his political views at all in regards to the Chechen problem and are not inclined to side with him in resolving this issue by those methods that are now being applied In contrast their position largely aligns with both parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition Considering also that S ergey Kovalev the Commissioner for Human Rights under the President of the Russian Federation is a member of the Expert Analytical Council it becomes clear that the members of the specified council are picked in such a way that the truth is not arising through debate but through political affirmation and parroting each other It is also interesting to note that except for O leg Lobov and S ergey Filatov all of the other speakers said practically nothing about the violations of human rights by Dudayev's forces about the criminalization of the republic the arms trade and the drug trafficking that is flourishing in Chechnya and also Translated by Sara Dunn for the National Security Archive Source Epokha Yeltsina pp 625-627 TK full pub info This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu