10 AT 7H5 CHNES Au m tyw OPTION-M FORM HO IO By 03 13 UNITED MT 324 Memorandum 3 60 u 30v up John A Amitsge DATE NMer 25 19 FROM mam - Charles G Flames 607 it SUBJECT Warsaw Report on Ghich Nuclear Weapons Activities Hj - In reference to Warsaw's 791 of November 21 the following informe- tion could be conveyed to appropriate foreign diploma-Inc personnel in Harem It is true that the Chinese Gommists have built three atone reactors One of these which has 9 power output oi 7-10 HR was sup- plied by the Soviets here are two other known Chinese reactors of 2Wcspecity ssch'andthe existence ore third 2Mreeotoris sue- pected All or these reactors are designed for research 'lhey could be converted to the production of plutonium but their ombined output even over slongperiod souldbe insufficient to supporteven an emerinental uaeponaprogren velopeent program they m1 not use any of the reactors lmoln to have been built for peaceful purposes but will construct special facilities for the prohction of fissionsble materials For your intonation the intelligence omunity has recently re- examined availsble evidence on Chinese progress a nuclear capa- bility and has reaffirmed its estimate that 1963 is the most likely date for the completim of first minese nuclear device This estimate is or course artected by umber of factors which cannot not be predicted jme most important of these is the scale and pace of Soviet assistance to the El n-so in the atomic emery field This assistance has been con- siderable in the past but there is good reason to believe that the cur- rent political diseeneione have caused a severe cut back in Soviet aid which could stall the minese nuclear seapms program for some time There is little doubt hoeevu er that the Chinese have attained a com- petenceinatanic energyuhichsouldenable a weapon or their one even with no further Soviet assistance Regarding the alleged stasis explosion in the Gobi desert region to date intelligence has received no evidence which would lead to the conclusion that an etcunic explosion has occurred anywhere in Columnist ma zcc cwerreesjlm SECRET This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu