MORI DOCID 402878 - a- i unlaluunno 2277 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 9 October 1962 woman roe Mr Allan Evans State ms Colonel x T Gould USA on Colonel C Jeffries Jr USA ACSI Captain G K Nicodemus USN UNI Colonel w M Hargett USAF seen 232 Colonel G R Rooks USAF Chief Designate Policy Staff ma SNIE 13-6-62 MCMIWS 0F OF A NUCIEAR WEAPONS l The attached terms of reference have been prepared to meet Specific planning requirements of the Department of State We recognize that most of these requirements night be net through NIE lt-2_--62 Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation already scheduled for completion later this quarter However we en- visage that paper as a fairly general paper which after updating previous country estimates on the technical and economic capa- bilities of additional countries to develOp nuclear capabilities assessed the impact of likely French and Comunist Chinese progress and other developments on the nuclear proliferation problem across the board- Given the urgency and specific nature of State's questions including the emphasis on implications for Comunist China itself we believe it would be best to handle then in the presently proposed special estimate This paper along with the forthcoming estimate HIE 22-62 on the French nuclear program could then be used as one of the inputs to the more general esti- mate on nuclearprolii eration 2 It is requested that your representatives meet with us at 1000 Friday 12 October in Room 7E62 Langley building to discuss these terms We would hope to have contributions by the end of October with a view to completing USIB action by say 5 December National Estimat 6 GROUP 1 Plus Ch n Excluded frat autmtic down- and sification - - grading eclas A wOb 99102 2- 7% MORI DOCID 402878 1 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 9 October 1962 SUBJECT TERMS OF REFERENCE SNIE l3-6-62 IMPLICATICNS op A NUCIEAR WEAPONS mum TEE PROBLEM To assess Communist China's progress toward scqnisition of a nuclear weapons capability and to estimate certain implications of this development BEARING ON THE PROBLEM I CW PROSPECTS OF ACQUIRING A WCIEAR HEAPONS CAEABILTTI Contributors are reqoested to up-data their contributions to NIB 13-2-62 Chinese Communist Advanced WEspons Capabilities dated 25 April 1962 GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Ala b rszozz- 75 MORI DOCID 402878 A Review any recent evidence hearing on China's nuclear weapons program Are there any developments which could drastically accelerate or retard this program 28 When is Comnist China likely to explode a nuclear device How soon thereafter can it acquire a significant nuclear weapons capability Estimate the probable timing of successive phases of the weapons program What air- craft or missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons are likely to he ayailshle to the Chinese over the next decade II DELICATIQIS FOR CHINA A Military 1 How might Commist China's military philosophy be affected by the detonation of a nuclear device By acquisition of a significant nuclear weapons capa mum 2 To what extent and in what manner would the acquisi- tion of a nuclear weapons capability affect Comnist 75 1022- 7Q MORI DOCID 402878 China's military capabilities as a power in Asia and the Western Pacific B Political and 1 What would he the probable effect of the detona- tion of a nuclear device and the acquisition of a significant nuclear weapons capability'by the Chinese Communists upon a Domestic policy b Economic priorities c Attitudes of the Chinese people toward the regime IMPLICATIONS FOR CCMMUNIST FOREIGN A Commist China's Foreign Policies in Asia 1 Foreign policy outlook In general would Peiping's - leaders become more sober or more adventurous with respect to acceptance of foreign policy risk In what ways would the Chinese seek to exploit the new situation A cubb 99I022- 77 MORI DOCID 402878 2 S-B - Foreign policy in practice In particular what policy changes would China adopt with respect to India Japan and the countries of southeast Asia Impact of China's Detonation of a Nuclear Device l 2 3 Reactions in Asia How would the Asian Gown-manta alter their policies toward Peiping How would these governments alter their attitudes toward the US especially US base rights Sine-Soviet relations Commist China's position in the world Columnist movement Communist China's world position A wbb 73 MORI DOCID 402878 u a I mpg 13 bdrm-E - i PULNHING raw E ROUTIE SHEET 0513 ISA DATE j a LOG NO r mg p Adm Lee Director I Janie Connie COORDINATING CURRENT PROJECTS DIVISION SPECIAL OPERATIONS DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION Col John CHIEF Dr Mountain CHIEF Col Burke CHIEF Mr Carroll CHIEF Capt Neill Col Sl'towalter Capt Shane Mr O'Donnell Col Kisicl Col Mcachnm Col English Mr Mnrotta Capt Cotton Air Rutter Col Hostler Mary Marge Mi okay Dorothy Nancy Betty Vivian Mary CHECK ONE ACTION - Pre SUSPENSE DATE 3 7 nmoamnon all- 10 m u I CONCURRENCE I I may Swain Gmulp RETURN TO FORWARD TO FILE FOR DISTRIBUTION DESTROY SIGNATURE RETAIN PROCESS SNOWFLAKE AND RETURN TO REMARKS 4 CIA A421 Smd uf 201 524 m2 ow Ha W Wilt - 141 ORIGINATOR l TL ahm'l cm A - - 99 02-2 7 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu