6 3 'P Tf m woo-men nun-a no i aasnagafilii t iic was Q ssai I jaw in 24 set 4 Men-am nos- a m new a a N SECRET 2 his 13 gig Wwv-omw_ main-um a I Implications of A Chinese Communist Nuclear Detonation and NUClear Capability 1 Acquisition by Communist China of nuclear weapons Willna g in itself alter teenage aslssioss 9i Power ngQgiga A Chinese Communist ChiCom Inucleaf capabiliEymeQ need not impose new military restrictions on the U S response to aggression in Asia These conclusions assume rationality and reasonable prudence by Communist China in making military decisions 2 There is a considerable difference between a first test device and a stockpile of deliverable weapo ment of delivery systems poses a further probl-ua 3 As Communist China gradually acquires a stockpile -of nuclear weapons and delivery means it will have the mili tary capability threat to U S bases in non-'nuclearoperations and for support 645 ixmurgency However when account is taken of the over-all nuclear balance and other considerations it is evident that the real military even a quite substantial ChiGss easiest capability will using such weapsns-against countries of Southeast Asia for example 4 The great asymmetry in ChiCOm and US nuclear capa- bilities and vulnerabilities makes Chic first use cf nuclear against Asias nations sis pt in the event of an attack upon the mainland which threatens the very existence of the-ChiCom regime A limited ChiCom intercontinental capability when and if achieved would not eliminate this basic asymmetry But the ChiComs and none Communist Asians might believe that such a capability would have increased effect as a deterrent because of an unwillingn ness by the US in situations in which its interests were marginally engaged to assume the marginal risks of the absolute level of damage which the ChiComs could inflict 5 The basic SECRET wadumm uw-u Wm mum-m DECLASSIFIED e422 sag- a 3mm - SECRET 2 5 The basicmltaa Problesswe Wwallfacemarellesly operations designed to test the level of the US commitment and response relatively low-level border wars revolutionary were supported by the ChiGoms and pressure to keep US nuclear weapons from the areaa 6 Eeiping's tacticswin_eaploitinggits test and aspen bilities are likely to be political and to have two broad strands a As expected it appears to be seeking to counter adverse effects by emphasizing the alleged defensive character of its action and offering peace preposals It may also be pected either explicitly or implicitly to seek to inst ll fear of its power and to apply pressure on the Us military presence in Asia 7 Although efforts by Peiping to engage in nuclear blackmail are certainly not precluded political exploitation of its capability in a threatening manner will be inhibited by such factors as a desire to avoid action which might re- suit in adverse political reaction in Asia in a serious Japanese rearmament effort or in endangering Peiping's chances for leadership of the world revolutionary movemento 8 dAsianaountrieBinthEirPres ant PQlicies_with respectcaepmi Ha wt gmggasian_c tries wiliseekUS actions ofreas sesame At thesametime neutrals and perhapsw a gm lli f in Asia and elsewhere may push harder for an Asian nuclear free zone for ChiCom membership in the UN and participation in arms control and disarmament negotiations etc Longeruterm effectewill depend upon US policies and the general evolution of the Asian situation 9 in requestsfor new prconfirmationof defensegs rantees a awg ecific'application of these to defense nuclear attack With the US nuclear deterrent in the backu ground evidence of US will and ability to reapond rapidly to communist aggression without undue reliance upon nuclear weaponS'will be an important form of reassurance to Asian nations and a deterrent to ChiCom miscalculation SECRET 10 16 64 molars RELEASE October 16 1964 Office of the White House Press Secretary THE WHITE HOUSE STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT 5 7 FILE COPY ON CHINESE COMMUNIST DETON- ATION OF NUCLEAR DEVICES The Chinese Communists have announced that they conducted their first nuclear test today By our own detection system we have confirmed that a low yield test actually took place in Western China at about 3 a m EDT As Secretary Rusk noted on September 29 we have known for some time that the Chinese Communists had a nuclear development program which was approaching the point of a first detonation of a test device This explosion comes as no surprise to the United States Government It has been fully taken into account in planning our own defense program and nuclear capability Its military significance should not be overestimated Many years and great efforts separate testing of a first nuclear device from having a stockpile of reliable weapons with effective delivery systems Still more basic is the fact that if and when the Chinese Communists develcp nuclear weapons systems free world nuclear strength will continue to be enormously greater The United States reaffirms its defense commitments in Asia Evenif Communist China should evehtually develop an effective nuclear capability that capability would have no set upon the readiness of the United States to respond to requests from an nations forhelp in dealing with Communist Chinese aggression The United States will also not be dive rted from its efforts to help the nations of Asia to defend themselves and to advance the welfare of their people The Chinese Communist nuclear weapons program is a tragedy for the Chinese people who have suffered so much under the Communist regime Scarce economic resources which could have been used to improve the well being of the Chinese people have been used to produce a crude nuclear device which can only increase the sense of insecurity of the Chinese people Other Asian nations have wisely chosen instead to work for the well -being of their people through economic development and peaceful use of the atom in this way they have made a great contribution to the peace and security of the We rld The Chinese Communist nuclear detonation is a reflection of policies which do not serve the cause of peace But there is no reason to fear that it will lead to immediate dangers of war The nations of the Free World will recognize its limited significance and will persevere in their determination to preserve their independence join all humanity in regretting the contamination of the atmosphere caused by the Chinese Communist test We will continue in our own efforts to keep the atmosphere clean We will pursue with dedication and deter- mination our purpose of achieving concrete practical steps on the road that leads away from nuclear armaments and war and toward a world of coope ration development and peace This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu